1) The document discusses 10 trends in strategic foresight for defense and security planning.
2) It notes a shift towards more serious strategic analysis that balances short, medium, and long term planning horizons.
3) Foresight is moving towards a whole-of-government and whole-of-society approach, and using a more diverse set of foresight tools and methods.
4) There is a push to better link foresight to action, balance external and internal perspectives, and develop new foresight products beyond traditional planning documents.
My presentation from the 2011's Junge Piraten Security Conference. It covers the historical overview until current time (of 2011) of nuclear doctrines of the world.
My presentation from the 2011's Junge Piraten Security Conference. It covers the historical overview until current time (of 2011) of nuclear doctrines of the world.
Though the worst intelligence failure, the USA took maximum advantage of the 9/11 tragedy and embarked on the mission to accomplish the objectives set forth in the infamous neo-con paper, known as the American Century.
America employed all its -military, diplomatic and financial, to wage a war of terror on several countries besides Afghanistan-its starting point.
Whether it was a stellar success or a dismal failure, it has cost the world massively in terms of loss of human lives, financial losses, refugees crises, missed opportunities, and surprisingly, increased global terrorism
This presentation covers all these issues in greater detail
Kenneth N. Waltz was an American political scientist who was a member of the faculty at both the University of California, Berkeley and Columbia University and one of the most prominent scholars in the field of international relations. He was a veteran of both World War II and the Korean War.
Waltz was a founder of neorealism, or structural realism, in international relations theory. Waltz's theories have been extensively debated within the field of international relations. In 1981, Waltz published a monograph arguing that in some cases the proliferation of nuclear weapons could increase the probability of international peace.
Terrorism-historical as well as a universal phenomenon; few countries can claim not to have been affected by this menace which is rising
Has been practised by every type of organisation, religious or non-religious, right-wing or left-wing. Muslims, Christians, Jews, Hindus
Consequently, the reasons for the terrorist activity and the identity of its perpetrators are always subject to context, time, and place.
This presentation attempts to analyse global terrorism from its historical perspective, identify causes, and presents a plan of action to curb it
Global Political Economy: How The World Works?Jeffrey Harrod
These are the slides which are displayed by the lecturer Jeffrey Harrod in the on-line Lecture Course "Global Political Economy: How the World Works" which is available free on his website http://www.jeffreyharrod.eu/avcourse.html.
The purpose it to make the slides available to download which at the moment cannot be done from the on-line lecture. Many of the slides provide data which may be useful in presentations and research papers. Other slides are the points addressed in the lecture.
The course covers all the material conventionally found in courses on international political economy. The approach is critical and realist and seeks to understand or explain
power rather than functions which surround the world economy.
The lectures and slides cover investment, trade, finance , migration and labour paying special attention to the multinational corporation and the agencies of states as the central power players in the global economy.
About Us:
UltraSpectra is a full-service online company dedicated to providing the services of internet marketing and
IT solutions to professionals and businesses looking to fully leverage the internet.
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This presentation is made by Samin VossoughiRad. American University for Humanities- Tbilisi campus
The security Dilemma is the them of the presentation and it has been explained exactly why states goes to war
The Postulates on Russia’s Foreign Policy developed with the participation of the Russian International Affairs Council’s members and experts discuss Russia’s position in the international arena, the role of global challenges in shaping the foreign policy agenda and outline foreign policy priorities for the period from 2012 to 2018. The main purpose of the Postulates is to encourage a public discourse about new contours and orientation of Russia’s foreign policy and to devise the solutions to be protected against traditional and emerging security challenges.
Though the worst intelligence failure, the USA took maximum advantage of the 9/11 tragedy and embarked on the mission to accomplish the objectives set forth in the infamous neo-con paper, known as the American Century.
America employed all its -military, diplomatic and financial, to wage a war of terror on several countries besides Afghanistan-its starting point.
Whether it was a stellar success or a dismal failure, it has cost the world massively in terms of loss of human lives, financial losses, refugees crises, missed opportunities, and surprisingly, increased global terrorism
This presentation covers all these issues in greater detail
Kenneth N. Waltz was an American political scientist who was a member of the faculty at both the University of California, Berkeley and Columbia University and one of the most prominent scholars in the field of international relations. He was a veteran of both World War II and the Korean War.
Waltz was a founder of neorealism, or structural realism, in international relations theory. Waltz's theories have been extensively debated within the field of international relations. In 1981, Waltz published a monograph arguing that in some cases the proliferation of nuclear weapons could increase the probability of international peace.
Terrorism-historical as well as a universal phenomenon; few countries can claim not to have been affected by this menace which is rising
Has been practised by every type of organisation, religious or non-religious, right-wing or left-wing. Muslims, Christians, Jews, Hindus
Consequently, the reasons for the terrorist activity and the identity of its perpetrators are always subject to context, time, and place.
This presentation attempts to analyse global terrorism from its historical perspective, identify causes, and presents a plan of action to curb it
Global Political Economy: How The World Works?Jeffrey Harrod
These are the slides which are displayed by the lecturer Jeffrey Harrod in the on-line Lecture Course "Global Political Economy: How the World Works" which is available free on his website http://www.jeffreyharrod.eu/avcourse.html.
The purpose it to make the slides available to download which at the moment cannot be done from the on-line lecture. Many of the slides provide data which may be useful in presentations and research papers. Other slides are the points addressed in the lecture.
The course covers all the material conventionally found in courses on international political economy. The approach is critical and realist and seeks to understand or explain
power rather than functions which surround the world economy.
The lectures and slides cover investment, trade, finance , migration and labour paying special attention to the multinational corporation and the agencies of states as the central power players in the global economy.
About Us:
UltraSpectra is a full-service online company dedicated to providing the services of internet marketing and
IT solutions to professionals and businesses looking to fully leverage the internet.
http://www.ultraspectra.com
http://www.ultraspectra.net
Join Our Network:
facebook.com/ultraspectra
twitter.com/ultraspectra
youtube.com/user/ultraspecra
This presentation is made by Samin VossoughiRad. American University for Humanities- Tbilisi campus
The security Dilemma is the them of the presentation and it has been explained exactly why states goes to war
The Postulates on Russia’s Foreign Policy developed with the participation of the Russian International Affairs Council’s members and experts discuss Russia’s position in the international arena, the role of global challenges in shaping the foreign policy agenda and outline foreign policy priorities for the period from 2012 to 2018. The main purpose of the Postulates is to encourage a public discourse about new contours and orientation of Russia’s foreign policy and to devise the solutions to be protected against traditional and emerging security challenges.
This presentation is designed to give an overview of the strategic planning process for those new to the process. It has been used with deans and other executives particularly in higher education, but it is applicable to any organization.
Please have a look at the well-designed strategy process that consulting firm Winfried Kempfle Marketing Services uses in strategy projects. The strategy process shows phases and milestones as well as main tasks to be performed in order to develop or im-prove a company´s strategy. The process is focused on strengthening the company´s competitiveness. It also shows strategy tools that should be applied to perform strategic planning processes in an efficient way.
हम आग्रह करते हैं कि जो भी सत्ता में आए, वह संविधान का पालन करे, उसकी रक्षा करे और उसे बनाए रखे।" प्रस्ताव में कुल तीन प्रमुख हस्तक्षेप और उनके तंत्र भी प्रस्तुत किए गए। पहला हस्तक्षेप स्वतंत्र मीडिया को प्रोत्साहित करके, वास्तविकता पर आधारित काउंटर नैरेटिव का निर्माण करके और सत्तारूढ़ सरकार द्वारा नियोजित मनोवैज्ञानिक हेरफेर की रणनीति का मुकाबला करके लोगों द्वारा निर्धारित कथा को बनाए रखना और उस पर कार्यकरना था।
31052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
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An astonishing, first-of-its-kind, report by the NYT assessing damage in Ukraine. Even if the war ends tomorrow, in many places there will be nothing to go back to.
In a May 9, 2024 paper, Juri Opitz from the University of Zurich, along with Shira Wein and Nathan Schneider form Georgetown University, discussed the importance of linguistic expertise in natural language processing (NLP) in an era dominated by large language models (LLMs).
The authors explained that while machine translation (MT) previously relied heavily on linguists, the landscape has shifted. “Linguistics is no longer front and center in the way we build NLP systems,” they said. With the emergence of LLMs, which can generate fluent text without the need for specialized modules to handle grammar or semantic coherence, the need for linguistic expertise in NLP is being questioned.
01062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
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‘वोटर्स विल मस्ट प्रीवेल’ (मतदाताओं को जीतना होगा) अभियान द्वारा जारी हेल्पलाइन नंबर, 4 जून को सुबह 7 बजे से दोपहर 12 बजे तक मतगणना प्रक्रिया में कहीं भी किसी भी तरह के उल्लंघन की रिपोर्ट करने के लिए खुला रहेगा।
03062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
3. „Armed Force‟ as a Reflection of the Age
Nomadic
(Hunter/gatherer) Agrarian society Industrial society
Age
„Arms‟ Bare Hands+ Cold Hot
Energy Human Mechanical Thermal
Unit Clan Settlement City Nation-State
Post-industrial society:
Information and knowledge age
Age
Arms ?
Energy ?
Unit ? [..., networks, cities, societies, individuals,…]
4. STRONG in the 21st Century:
STRategic Orientation and Navigation Guidance
Strategic Orientation Strategic Navigation
1 Performance
indicators
External (design/collect)
Analysis Strategic portfolio
analysis 2
Strategic
Foresight boundary Strategic Act CD&E
direction
conditions Capa- Eco-
Policy
bility system
options
options options
Internal
Analysis
Decide
1 – Strategic learning
Strategic Risk Assessment
2 – Strategic feedback loop
Value for Money Analysis
5. Trend 1 – (A bit) more „serious‟ strategic analysis
… but differentially so
Strategic Orientation Strategic Navigation
1 Performance
indicators
External (design/collect)
Analysis Strategic portfolio
analysis 2
Strategic
Foresight boundary Strategic Act CD&E
direction
conditions Capa- Eco-
Policy
bility system
options
options options
Internal
Analysis
Decide
1 – Strategic learning
Strategic Risk Assessment
2 – Strategic feedback loop
Value for Money Analysis
6. Trend 1 – (A bit) more „serious‟ strategic analysis
Personal and notional drawings!
Strategic Strategic
Strategic
Operational Operational
Tactical Tactical
US Europe Europe
(Best case) (Typical case)
7. Foresight and Defence Planning
A Short History
I
n
Fore- Point Parameterized Foresight s
Risk/Uncertainty Meta-Foresight
casting Scenarios scenarios i
g
h
t
Teleological Multi-scenario Robust „FAR‟ First
planning
Planning (1-on-1) planning planning principles
from “plan and pray” to “sense and respond”
9. 10 trends
1. Foresight for defense (still?) going strong
2. More balance between time horizons
3. Towards whole-of-government/society
4. Diversification of types of foresight
5. Diversification of foresight tools/methods
6. From foresight 1.0 to 2.0 to 3.0
7. Towards better actioning of foresight
8. More balance between outside-in/inside-out
9. Towards new foresight products
10. Trend 1 – Interest in foresight (still?) growing
11. Trend 2 – Better Balance between Planning Horizons:
Away from Presentism?
Personal and notional estimates !!!
P High
L
A
N
N
I
N
Medium
G
Defence Planning-
E
F
Horizons:
F • current
O
Low • medium-term
R • long-term
T 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s
YEAR
12. Trend 3 – Towards whole-of-government (slowly)
Integrated
security
Whole-of-
foresight
Society
Internal security
Whole-of-
Government
Stovepiped Whole-of- Whole-of-
Government Society
External security
13. Planning for National Security –
The Dutch Model (2007)
Foresight Risk assessment Capabilities planning
Process 1. Government-wide analysis 2. Strategic planning 3. Follow-up
Policy
A. Strategic B. Horizon- Required Current
foresight scanning capabilies capabiliities
C. National Planning
Risk
risk- assumpt
prioritization Measures
assessment ions
B. Thematic in-depth
foresight Capabilities gap
Legislation
Report Report Report National -
Work
Product strategic themes and Threat Risk programme
Capability
foresight scenarios picture Assessment requirements
tasks and
Cabinet Cabinet capabilities Cabinet decides
Decision- decides on selects on capabilities
themes for priorities on to be
making thematic basis of strengthened
in-depth national risk through normal
analyses assessment budget system
15. Government-Wide National Risk
Assessment- – Assessing likelihood
Hazards
Class Quantitative (%) Qualitative description of danger
A < 0,05 Highly improbable
B 0.05 – 0.5 Improbable
C 0.5 – 5 Possible
D 5 – 50 Probable
E 50 – 100 Highly probable
Dangers
Class Qualitative description of danger
A No concrete indication, and event is thought to be inconceivable
B No concrete indication, but event is conceivable
C No concrete indication, but event is conceivable
D Event is thought to be quite probable
E Concrete indication event will occur
19. Trend 4 – Diversification of types of foresight
Strategic security After Paul Davis
planning
(Deep(ening?))
Risk
Uncertainty
planning
Type of
Operational Contingency
planning planning
Risk planning Uncertainty planning
Planning Foresight
Broader foresight
No-surprises
future
Point-scenarios
toolbox ‘The Black Swan’
Pinciple
Optimization Robustness FRANKness First principles
20. Trend 5 - Diversification of foresight methods
21. HCSS „flares‟: 8 different angles …
…along (at least) three dimensions
Level of Abstraction
High
Very abstract
Low
Very concrete Long Short
Timehorizon
Quantitative
Qualitative
Research method
23. Online expertforum
• What do you see as the major
risks to national and international
stability and security in the
Risks coming 5-15 years?
• International
• National
Relevance • Criteria
• Driving forces
• Actors
Elaboration • Regions
24.
25. TRADITIONAL ARMS RACE - CONCEPTUAL VIEW
Sensitivity of opposing
arms production B
Bias in estimating Time to perceive
opposing arms B arms opposing arms B
+ +
+ Estimated -
opposing arms A
+
+
Arms B
Desired arms A
+
-
+ +
+
New arms under Estimated Estimated New arms under
development A domestic arms A domestic arms B development B
+ +
+
+ -
Arms A Desired arms B
+
Estimated
opposing arms B
-
+ +
Time to perceive arms Bias in estimating
opposing arms A opposing arms A
Sensitivity of opposing
arms production A
26. Trend 6 – Towards Foresight 3.0
Foresight 1.0 Foresight 2.0 Foresight 3.0
Connecting people /
Prima Donna Networks of (remarkable) people Connecting visions
27. Meta-fore – Etymology and Meaning
Meta- fore
Μετα-φορά Fore-sight
A
(metaphora)
n G
c r
i e fore sight
e e μεταφέρω (metapherō)
n k “„I transfer, apply‟” ME, probably
t translation of
Latin „providentia‟
μετά (meta), φέρω (pherō),
“above, beyond‟” “„I bear, carry‟”
Meta-analysis of existing foresight exercises
Without pre-conceived (ideological, methodological, cultural,…)
notions
(Attempt to) carry the field of foresight beyond its current status
28. Metafore C6+2 protocol
“Command and
Control‟
Conceptualize
Collect
Code
Cogitate
Commit to
paper
Communicate
32. Global parameters - Overview
1 2 3 4 5
Actors Blocs of States Pairs of States State and non-state vs. non-state State vs. non-state Non-state vs. non-state Actors
Aim Physical degradation Obtain/retain/occupy Political/economic degradation Stabilize Survive Aim
Definition War Militarized interstate disputes Tensions between non-state actors Political/economic tensions Between individuals Definition
Distinctiveness Low Leans low Medium Leans high High Distinctiveness
Domain Traditional Dimensions Modern military dimensions Political Economic Human Terrain Domain
Extensiveness Global Regional Sub-regional National Domestic Extensiveness
Impetus Data Interest Value Relationship Structural Impetus
Length Years Months Days Hours Minutes Length
Means Physical Political Economic Electronic/Cyber Information/ Psychological Means
Pace Low Leans low Medium Leans high High Pace
Salience Low Leans low Medium Leans high High Salience
36
1 2 3 4 5
33. Parameters – Values across Languages
1 2 3 4 5
Actors Blocs of States Pairs of States State and non-state vs. non-state State vs. non-state Non-state vs. non-state Actors
Aim Physical degradation Obtain/retain/occupy Political/economic degradation Stabilize Survive Aim
Definition War Militarized interstate disputes Tensions between non-state actors Political/economic tensions Between individuals Definition
Distinctiveness Low Leans low Medium Leans high High Distinctiveness
Domain Traditional Dimensions Modern military dimensions Political Economic Human Terrain Domain
Extensiveness Global Regional Sub-regional National Domestic Extensiveness
Impetus Data Interest Value Relationship Structural Impetus
Length Years Months Days Hours Minutes Length
Means Physical Political Economic Electronic/Cyber Information/ Psychological Means
Pace Low Leans low Medium Leans high High Pace
Salience Low Leans low Medium Leans high High Salience
1 2 3 4 5
38. Trend 7 – More focus on non-‟known knowns‟ (1/2)
Unknowns
Knowns Knowns Unknowns
„Lesser and included‟ A few point scenarios
„Wise Prediction‟/ (Point-)Scenario-planning/
Big gambler Scenario-gambling
39. Trend 7 – More focus on non-‟known knowns‟ (2/2)
40. Trend 8 – „Anchoring‟ foresight
“it is all too easy to overestimate the effects of
these exercises, particularly when you consider
the rhetoric surrounding some of them. Closer
examination shows that their impact on research
and innovation systems is typically rather
marginal, and they tend to lead to incremental,
evolutionary changes, often at the edges.”
Mapping Foresight. Revealing how Europe and other world regions navigate
into the future. EFMN, November 2009
41. Trend 9 – more „inside-out‟ foresight
The butterfly-model
general
to-
semadyson
security
Outside-in integratie
Inside-out
security -
to-
themes/caps
43. Trend 9 – More „inside-out‟ foresight
vision
outside-in inside-out
future
future me’s what are we (/do we want to be) good at?
environments =>
capabilities
integration
44. Trend 9 – More „inside-out‟ foresight
vision
outside-in inside-out
future future me’s what are / do
environments => we want to be
capabilities good at?
integration
(future) capability requirements - DOTMLPFI
Portfolio – portfolio of capabilities and policies
Portfolio – portfolio of capabilities and policies
One of the big (underappreciated) stovepipes in our defence planning systems is the timehorizon-stovepipe (current (operational) planning vs. Medium-term planning vs. Long-term planning). During the Cold War and in its immediate aftermath, most capabilities planning went into medium-term planning (since no real operations were taking place). As OPTEMPO started picking up in the post-Cold War period, most planning resources were invested in current (operational) planning, mostly at the expense of both other planning horizons. Recent shocks (financial crisis) may trigger renewed interest in longer-term planning. We want to emphasize here that the main advantages of long-term planning (and the principal reason to take it more seriously than we do today) is that it allows one to relax some of the main assumptions that are generally accepted at any given moment in time and to think more ‘out of the box’ (also in terms of solutions).
Australia, France, UK
The items that the cabinet takes out of the (meta-)foresight are then subjected to a government-wide analytical exercise we call the National Risk Assessment. This exercise yields a matrix that indicates the rlativel likelihood and impact of those items for Dutch national security.
This was the 2008 National Risk Assessment matrix that was presented to the Cabinet in May 2008 and then forwarded to Parliament and made public.
Uitwerking van indicatoren die inzichtgeven of een ‘event’ zichvoortzet in een ‘trend’Hoe bepaal je in welke richting de wereld zich in het scenarioframework beweegt?Waarde zit in over enkelejarenditherhalen and kijken hoe de blod
(Meta-) analysisBandwidth (general distribution of findings)‘Robust’ findings (where there seems to be more consensus)(Interesting) weak findings – closer look at some (interesting) outliers (plausible, internally coherent foresight views that for some reason are (currently a minority view)‘Holes’ – are there any views ‘missing’ (e.g. findings from other foresight work we’ve done (cite!!!), own thinking, etc.) ‘Trends’ – analyze the findings across times: are there any views that seem to be receding or ascending? [This may also include other things such as patterns (are certain views more typical for certain types of sources (e.g. think tanks vs. government); for certain regions (certain views more dominant in certain regions), etc.)‘So what’ – what does all of this mean? How do we interpret this? What does the meta-analysis mean? (what do we ‘know’/’not know’)What does it mean for strategic planning? (‘translation’)
Traditional (pre-industrial) model: autocratic/‘heroic’ leadership – the strategic ‘leader’ (‘prince’, ‘commander’, ‘leader of a firm’) collects (and hoards) all the key information, plots a course and ‘steers’ his organization in that direction
Industrial-model: ‘leader’ surrounds himself with staffs with some division of labor (and specialization). Increasingly ‘staffs’ also become co-responsible for orientation (certainly WITHIN their own stovepipes) AND navigation (still mostly just execution with SOME leeway – supported/supporting commander/mission command)[add zig-zags]
Post-industrial model: two big changes:Nature of organization changes: more network-centric ecosystem-like (don’t be a star, be a galaxy)Nature of ‘Strong’ changes: no longer need/smart to condense/converge orientation to a single point (-prediction) and then to plot a ‘single’ course and steer (‘command and control’) the organization in that directionBetter/smarter to contemplate multiple futures (multi-perspective AND through the network/ecosystem), NOT condense/converge, NOT plot a single course but instead instill FRRANKness, develop and pursue a ‘bushy strategic tree) (ALSO through the network/ecosystem), and ‘sense (as a network/ecosystem) and respond (as a network/ecosystem)’