The document summarizes political trends from a June 2012 survey in Mongolia. It finds that over 80% of respondents planned to participate in the 2012 parliamentary elections. The ruling Democratic Party polled the highest at around 42%. The document outlines two scenarios for how parliamentary seats may be distributed as a result, with the Democratic Party projected to win between 40-49 seats out of 76 total.

1. Political trends in Election Campaign
In June 2012
Presentation of the Sant Maral foundation
Prepared by:
Werner Prohl
L. Sumati
Ulan Bator, 25. June 2012

2. “If elections were held tomorrow, would you participate?” 2008 May
Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide
 “yes” 88.2 75.5 83.1
 “no” 5.7 12.7 8.5
 (Don’t know) 5.7 9.8 7.3
 (No answer) .5 2.0 1.1
“Would you participate in 2012 Parliament Elections?” 2012 June
Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide
 “Yes” 87.8 75.3 82.8
 “No” 8.3 14.0 10.6
 (No answer) 1.0 2.8 1.7
 (Don’t know) 2.8 8.0 4.9
Elections turnout in 2008: 76%

3. The representative sample of 1000 respondents from the capital
Ulan Bator and Suhebaatar, Arhangay, Selenge, Hovd aymaks
(distributed proportionally by 4 regional divisions and Ulan Bator)
was collected from June 6 to June 14, 2012.
“Which party would you vote for?
“Would you
participate in 2012
Parliament
Elections?” Total
YES NO
Mongolian Peoples Party 29.1% 12.1% 28.2%
Democratic Party 43.0% 36.4% 42.6%
MPRP, MNDP Coalition 22.9% 33.3% 23.4%
Civic Will - Green Party 2.9% 6.1% 3.1%
Republican Party - Third Power Coalition 1.3% 6.1% 1.6%
MTUP (Traditional United) .2% .2%
Other Party .7% 6.1% .9%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

4. Trend from April to June:
April June
Mongolian Peoples Party 31.9 25.2
Democratic Party 33.4 38.3
MPRP, MNDP Coalition 12.1 21.3
Civic Will - Green Party 3.7 2.9
Other 3.6 2.6
Independent 15.4 9.5
Total 100% 100%
Don’t know, non-response,
missing(% of all sample)
48.1% 32.5%

5. From 2008 Elections to 2012 Elections:
May
2008
April
2009
April
2010
May
2011
April
2012
June
2012
MPP 43,4% 43,8% 41,0% 38,6% 37,7% 27,9%
MPRP/MNDP 6,3% 14,3% 23,6%
DP 42,5% 49,0% 46,1% 41,9% 39,4% 42,4%
Other 14,3% 6,5% 12,9% 13,1% 8,3% 6,2%

6. Year Percentage of votes Number
of
received
mandates
% of all
mandates
Party %
2008 MPRP 43,4 % 45 59 %
DP 42,5 % 27 36 %
2004 MPRP 51,4 % 37 49%
Motherland Dem. Coalition 39,2 % 35 46%
2000 MPRP 53,3 % 72 95%
MDNSP Coalition 12,0 % 1 1%
MSDP 7,7 % -
MNDP-MRDP Coalition 13,3 % 1 1%
1996 MPRP 30,8 % 25 33%
Democratic Union 50,9 % 50 66%

7. Why to vote for this party :
Vote for ...
MPP MPRP/
MNDP
DP
Only this party can solve the main
problem of the country
30.9% 35.2% 37.4%
I don't trust other parties 16.0% 10.1% 7.0%
I always vote for this party 22.3% 18.9% 23.1%
Protest-
voters
As I am critical about state
management, I decided to vote
for this party
3.2% 16.4% 8.7%
No principal difference for which
party you vote
8.0% 2.5% 7.3%
I support the candidate of this party 14.9% 12.6% 13.6%

8. Voters distribution since Elections 2008 (parties) April 2012
2008
Next Elections
MPP(MPR
P)
DP For diff.
parties
Mongolian People’s
Party
63.6% 5.8% 23.7%
Democratic Party 5.6% 69.8% 19.0%
MPRP-MNDP union 17.8% 5.2% 11.2%
Civic Will - Green Party .9% 3.7% 9.5%
Republican Party .7% .9%
Other Party 1.8% 3.3% 3.4%
Independent 9.8% 11.3% 33.2%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Voters distribution since Elections 2008 (parties) June 2012
2008
Next Elections
MPP DP For diff.
parties
Mongolian People’s
Party
54.8% 5.4% 25.8%
Democratic Party 6.8% 78.8% 40.9%
MPRP, MNDP Coalition 37.2% 10.4% 18.2%
Civic Will - Green Party 1.2% 1.3% 7.6%
Third Power Coalition 2.1% 6.1%
MTUP .4%
Other Party 1.7% 1.5%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

9. Mongolian Parliament: total 76 Seats
48
Direct
mandates
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
28
Mandates from
proportional
votes
absolute Majority:
39 Seats

10. Scenario 1: The DP and MPRP/MNDP union continue to gain, other parties
decline, Civic Will/Green Party will not exceed 5 % threshold, small parties and
independents will get 2 direct mandates; DP will get 75 % of all Direct mandates;
Distribution of direct mandates between MPP and MPRP/MNDP in proportion 7 to 4
Distribution of
28 proportional
seats
MPP 8 Seats
MPRP / MNDP 7 Seats
DP 13 Seats
CW / GP(Minors) –

11. Distribution of
48 Direct
mandates
MPP 6 Seats
MPRP / MNDP 4 Seats
DP 36 Seats
Minors 2 Seats

12. Total distribution of seats (Scenario 1):
MPP 14 Seats
MPRP / MNDP 11 Seats
DP 49 Seats
Minors 2 Seats

13. Scenario 2: No changes in voting pattern, Civic Will/Green Party
exceeds 5 % threshold and receive 1 direct mandate; DP gets 60 % of
direct mandates; MPP proportion to MPRP/MNDP is 10 to 8.
Distribution of
28 proportional
seats
MPP 8 Seats
MPRP / MNDP 7 Seats
DP 12 Seats
Minors 1 Seat

14. Distribution of
48 direct
mandates
MPP 10 Seats
MPRP / MNDP 8 Seats
DP 28 Seats
Minors 2 Seats

15. Total distribution of seats (Scenario 2):
MPP 20 Seats
MPRP / MNDP 13 Seats
DP 40 Seats
Minors 3 Seats