Magellan Strategies survey of 2,490 likely Montana general election voters. The survey includes a voter mood question, US Senate ballot test of Steve Daines, John Walsh, and Roger Roots, and a Congressional generic ballot test.
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Presented at AAPOR 2017 by Sofi Sinozich, Research Analyst at Langer Research Associates, and Gregory Holyk, Senior Research Analyst at Langer Research Associates
This memorandum is a summary of an automated survey of 869 likely voters in Maine. The survey was fielded October 23rd and 24th and has a margin of error of +/- 3.32% at the 95% confidence level.
The survey finds Republican Governor Paul LePage and Democrat Mike Michaud in a statistical tie with one week to go before Election Day. Among all voters, Paul LePage has 42.3% support; Mike Michaud has 41.6%, and independent candidate Eliot Cutler has 13.2% support. Among all male voters Paul LePage leads Mike Michaud by 3 points, 43% to 40% respectively, and among all female voters Mike Michaud leads by 1 point, 43% to 42% respectively. Independent Eliot Cutler’s strongest base of support is among married men and independent voters, with 16%.
The image ratings of both Paul LePage and Mike Michaud are very similar. Among all voters, 47% have a favorable opinion of Mike Michaud and 46% have an unfavorable opinion of him. For Paul LePage 48% of voters have a favorable opinion of him and 47% have an unfavorable opinion of him. The following table shows the ballot test by voter subgroup.
Conservatives For Clean Energy (CCE), in a poll conducted by Strategic Partners Solutions, recently released its findings regarding statewide opinions on current energy issues facing North Carolina.
The 2016 Election - How and why it's President TrumpLangerResearch
Presented at AAPOR 2017 by Sofi Sinozich, Research Analyst at Langer Research Associates, and Gregory Holyk, Senior Research Analyst at Langer Research Associates
This memorandum is a summary of an automated survey of 869 likely voters in Maine. The survey was fielded October 23rd and 24th and has a margin of error of +/- 3.32% at the 95% confidence level.
The survey finds Republican Governor Paul LePage and Democrat Mike Michaud in a statistical tie with one week to go before Election Day. Among all voters, Paul LePage has 42.3% support; Mike Michaud has 41.6%, and independent candidate Eliot Cutler has 13.2% support. Among all male voters Paul LePage leads Mike Michaud by 3 points, 43% to 40% respectively, and among all female voters Mike Michaud leads by 1 point, 43% to 42% respectively. Independent Eliot Cutler’s strongest base of support is among married men and independent voters, with 16%.
The image ratings of both Paul LePage and Mike Michaud are very similar. Among all voters, 47% have a favorable opinion of Mike Michaud and 46% have an unfavorable opinion of him. For Paul LePage 48% of voters have a favorable opinion of him and 47% have an unfavorable opinion of him. The following table shows the ballot test by voter subgroup.
Conservatives For Clean Energy (CCE), in a poll conducted by Strategic Partners Solutions, recently released its findings regarding statewide opinions on current energy issues facing North Carolina.
With Congressional Republicans on the verge of passing the largest tax reform bill in decades on Wednesday, overall Congressional approval remains low (21%). Self-identified Democrats are particularly disapproving of Congress giving the institution a 16% approval rating. Rank and file Republicans are a little more positive, but even they only give Congress a 30% approval score.
Echoing Congress, President Trump's approval rating also remains near its record low level, this week at 35%. However, Republicans continue to back the President in large numbers, currently at 76% approve.
The broad antipathy to Congress and the President is potentially fueling Democratic disgruntlement to the tune of a 12-percentage point advantage on the 2018 generic Congressional ballot question. Currently, 39% of Americans would vote for a Democrat versus 27% voting for a Republican if the midterms were held today.
Healthcare (17%), terrorism (15%), and the economy (11%) remain the top three issues facing the US today, with party lines continuing to dictate priorities. Nearly a quarter of Democrats (22%) believe healthcare is the most important problem facing the US, while a similar percentage of Republicans (23%) count terrorism as the most important.
April De Simone, Founder, Designing the WE
Celinda Lake, President, Lake Research Partners
Sam Munger, Director, State Innovation Exchange
Shaun Chapman, Chief of Staff, SolarCity
Richard Eidlin, Vice President, American Sustainable Business Council (moderator)
Watch this webinar: http://asbcouncil.org/video/what-election-means-sustainable-businesses#.WCzKTCSECAU
As election day in the United States draws near, all eyes will be on early voting numbers and eventually official returns. Our resident election expert, Nicholas Whyte, prepared this guide to knowing what it will take to win and when we're likely to know the outcome. Keep it handy!
The presence of military-trained gang members (MTGMs) in the community increases the threat of violence to citizens. The problem addressed was the growing presence of military-trained gang members in civilian communities in Tennessee. We examined the perceived presence of military-trained gang members of gang investigators at the annual conference and whether there had been changes since the previous survey. Many respondents reported gang members in their jurisdictions were increasingly using military-type weapons or explosives (51%), as well as military-type equipment like body armor, night-vision devices, etc. (30%). Although few (24%) agreed that gang members were using military-type tactics, a majority (over 90%) reported gang members committed home invasions and armed robberies. Many (46%) reported that there were gang members in their jurisdiction currently serving in the military, while 64% reported they had gang members who had served. Most of the respondents (66%) did not believe that military representatives advised their department when gang members were discharged from the military. More of the 2014 respondents than those in 2010 reported gang member use of military weapons, explosives, and equipment. More also reported gang members committed home invasions and armed robberies, and gang members currently in the military in their jurisdictions. Fewer thought their organization had a working relationship with military investigative authorities.
The nationwide TNS opinion poll was carried out between 15 and 20 January of 2013 by its local partner IPSC. The poll was commissioned by European Friends of Armenia (www.EuFoA.org) in order to contribute to a factual debate ahead of the elections. The sample size of the survey is 1,607.
With Congressional Republicans on the verge of passing the largest tax reform bill in decades on Wednesday, overall Congressional approval remains low (21%). Self-identified Democrats are particularly disapproving of Congress giving the institution a 16% approval rating. Rank and file Republicans are a little more positive, but even they only give Congress a 30% approval score.
Echoing Congress, President Trump's approval rating also remains near its record low level, this week at 35%. However, Republicans continue to back the President in large numbers, currently at 76% approve.
The broad antipathy to Congress and the President is potentially fueling Democratic disgruntlement to the tune of a 12-percentage point advantage on the 2018 generic Congressional ballot question. Currently, 39% of Americans would vote for a Democrat versus 27% voting for a Republican if the midterms were held today.
Healthcare (17%), terrorism (15%), and the economy (11%) remain the top three issues facing the US today, with party lines continuing to dictate priorities. Nearly a quarter of Democrats (22%) believe healthcare is the most important problem facing the US, while a similar percentage of Republicans (23%) count terrorism as the most important.
April De Simone, Founder, Designing the WE
Celinda Lake, President, Lake Research Partners
Sam Munger, Director, State Innovation Exchange
Shaun Chapman, Chief of Staff, SolarCity
Richard Eidlin, Vice President, American Sustainable Business Council (moderator)
Watch this webinar: http://asbcouncil.org/video/what-election-means-sustainable-businesses#.WCzKTCSECAU
As election day in the United States draws near, all eyes will be on early voting numbers and eventually official returns. Our resident election expert, Nicholas Whyte, prepared this guide to knowing what it will take to win and when we're likely to know the outcome. Keep it handy!
The presence of military-trained gang members (MTGMs) in the community increases the threat of violence to citizens. The problem addressed was the growing presence of military-trained gang members in civilian communities in Tennessee. We examined the perceived presence of military-trained gang members of gang investigators at the annual conference and whether there had been changes since the previous survey. Many respondents reported gang members in their jurisdictions were increasingly using military-type weapons or explosives (51%), as well as military-type equipment like body armor, night-vision devices, etc. (30%). Although few (24%) agreed that gang members were using military-type tactics, a majority (over 90%) reported gang members committed home invasions and armed robberies. Many (46%) reported that there were gang members in their jurisdiction currently serving in the military, while 64% reported they had gang members who had served. Most of the respondents (66%) did not believe that military representatives advised their department when gang members were discharged from the military. More of the 2014 respondents than those in 2010 reported gang member use of military weapons, explosives, and equipment. More also reported gang members committed home invasions and armed robberies, and gang members currently in the military in their jurisdictions. Fewer thought their organization had a working relationship with military investigative authorities.
The nationwide TNS opinion poll was carried out between 15 and 20 January of 2013 by its local partner IPSC. The poll was commissioned by European Friends of Armenia (www.EuFoA.org) in order to contribute to a factual debate ahead of the elections. The sample size of the survey is 1,607.
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Magellan Strategies BR today released the survey results today of an automated survey of 1,618 likely New Hampshire voters. The survey was conducted July 16-17. The margin of error for a survey of this size is 2.43%. The survey was commissioned by Citizens for a Strong New Hampshire. Aided by a dismal political environment, Scott Brown is within 5 points of defeating Jeanne Shaheen.
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Если президент США Дональд Трамп будет баллотироваться на второй президентский срок, он столкнется с серьезной конкуренцией со стороны американских политиков и лидеров общественного мнения
Magellan Strategies BR today released the survey results today of an automated survey of 1,618 likely New Hampshire voters. The survey was conducted July 16-17. The margin of error for a survey of this size is 2.43%. The survey was commissioned by Citizens for a Strong New Hampshire. Aided by a dismal political environment, Scott Brown is within 5 points of defeating Jeanne Shaheen.
The second nationwide TNS opinion poll was carried out between 31 January and 5 February 2013 by its local partner IPSC. The poll was commissioned by European Friends of Armenia (www.EuFoA.org) in order to contribute to a factual debate ahead of the elections. The sample size of the survey is 1,609.
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As Americans prepare for political debates around the Thanksgiving dinner table (or prepare to avoid them), two thirds continue to believe the US is on off on the wrong track (63%). While only 24% of Americans believe the US is heading in the right direction, partisan differences are stark with 52% of Republicans saying the country is headed in the right direction compared to 6% of Democrats.
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Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
31052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
03062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
El Puerto de Algeciras continúa un año más como el más eficiente del continente europeo y vuelve a situarse en el “top ten” mundial, según el informe The Container Port Performance Index 2023 (CPPI), elaborado por el Banco Mundial y la consultora S&P Global.
El informe CPPI utiliza dos enfoques metodológicos diferentes para calcular la clasificación del índice: uno administrativo o técnico y otro estadístico, basado en análisis factorial (FA). Según los autores, esta dualidad pretende asegurar una clasificación que refleje con precisión el rendimiento real del puerto, a la vez que sea estadísticamente sólida. En esta edición del informe CPPI 2023, se han empleado los mismos enfoques metodológicos y se ha aplicado un método de agregación de clasificaciones para combinar los resultados de ambos enfoques y obtener una clasificación agregada.
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‘वोटर्स विल मस्ट प्रीवेल’ (मतदाताओं को जीतना होगा) अभियान द्वारा जारी हेल्पलाइन नंबर, 4 जून को सुबह 7 बजे से दोपहर 12 बजे तक मतगणना प्रक्रिया में कहीं भी किसी भी तरह के उल्लंघन की रिपोर्ट करने के लिए खुला रहेगा।
Magellan Strategies Montana US Senate Survey Release April 10, 2014
1. !
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE APRIL 10th
, 2014
CONTACT: DAVID FLAHERTY 303-861-8585
STEVE DAINES LEADS JOHN WALSH BY 13 POINTS IN MT SENATE RACE:
DAINES 49%, WALSH 36%, ROOTS 4%, OTHER 5% UNDECIDED 6%
CONG. GENERIC BALLOT: REPUBLICAN 50%, DEMOCRAT 37%, OTHER 5%
Louisville, CO – Among likely 2014 general election voters in Montana,
Republican Congressman Steve Daines leads newly appointed Democrat Senator
John Walsh by 13 points, 49% to 36%. These results are based on a 2,490n
automated voice recorded survey of likely 2014 general election voters fielded
April 1st
and 2nd
. The image ratings of both candidates are similar, with 53% of all
respondents having a favorable opinion of Steve Daines, 33% having an
unfavorable opinion of him and 10% having no opinion of him. John Walsh’s
image rating stands at 47% favorable, 29% unfavorable and 17% of respondents do
not have an opinion of him. When reviewing the results by major voting subgroup,
we find Steve Daines leading among men by 18 points, 52% to 34%, and by 9
points, 46% to 37% among women. Among self-identified independents, Steve
Daines leads by 15 points, 43% to 28%.
“If the election for the United States Senate were being held today, for whom would you
vote if the candidates were John Walsh, Democrat, Steve Daines Republican, Roger Roots,
Libertarian, or some other candidate?”
Results by Gender, Marital Status and Party Identification*
All
All
Men
Mar.
Men
Sing.
Men
All
Wom
Mar.
Wom
Sing.
Wom Dems Reps Ind 65+
Daines Net +13 +18 +21 +9 +9 +13 -4 -72 +75 +15 +8
Total Daines 49% 52% 54% 46% 46% 49% 36% 10% 84% 43% 47%
Def Daines 37% 41% 43% 36% 33% 36% 25% 4% 68% 31% 38%
Prob Daines 12% 11% 11% 10% 13% 13% 11% 6% 16% 12% 9%
Total Walsh 36% 34% 33% 37% 37% 36% 40% 82% 9% 28% 39%
Def Walsh 27% 28% 27% 30% 27% 27% 28% 66% 7% 20% 30%
Prob Walsh 9% 6% 6% 7% 10% 9% 12% 16% 2% 8% 9%
Total Roots 4% 6% 6% 9% 3% 2% 5% 1% 1% 10% 2%
Other Can. 5% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 3% 2% 8% 5%
Undec/No Op. 6% 4% 3% 4% 10% 8% 14% 4% 4% 11% 7%
*Some numbers shown were rounded to the nearest whole number.
2. Magellan Strategies Montana 2014 US Senate General Election Survey Release
April 10, 2014, 2,490n MoE +/- 1.96%
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
MagellanStrategies.com | 303-861-8585
Voter Mood
The voter mood about the direction of the country among Montana voters mirrors
many national surveys, with only 30% thinking the country is headed in the right
direction and 64% feeling that things are off on the wrong track. Among major
voter subgroups, only among self-identified Democrats do a majority of 66% think
things in the country are headed in the right direction. Among independent voters,
68% feel things in the country are off on the wrong track, as do 90% of Republican
voters.
Congressional Generic Ballot
Looking at the results of the Congressional generic ballot test, the generic
Republican candidate leads the Democrat candidate by 13 points, 50% to 37%.
Among male voters the Republican candidate leads by 18 points, 52% to 34%.
Among female voters the Democrat candidate trails the Republican candidate by 7
points, 40% to 47% respectively. These numbers should be alarming to Democrat
candidates because women, and single women in particular, are a significant part
of the Democratic base. Among the all important independent voter subgroup, we
find the Republican candidate leading the Democrat candidate by 12 points, 42%
to 30%.
“If the election for Congress were being held today, would you vote for the Democrat
candidate or the Republican candidate?”
Results by Gender, Marital Status and Party Identification*
All
All
Men
Mar.
Men
Sing.
Men
All
Wom
Mar.
Wom
Sing.
Wom Dem Rep Ind 65+
Rep Net +13 +18 +22 +7 +7 +12 -7 -78 +84 +12 +6
Rep. 50% 52% 54% 47% 47% 51% 36% 8% 90% 42% 48%
Dem. 37% 34% 32% 40% 40% 39% 43% 86% 6% 30% 42%
Other 5% 6% 6% 7% 5% 4% 7% 1% 1% 13% 5%
Undec/DK 8% 8% 8% 6% 8% 6% 14% 5% 3% 15% 5%
*Some numbers shown were rounded to the nearest whole number.
Summary
Although it is very early in the 2014 campaign cycle, Steve Daines is starting out
with a 13 point lead over John Walsh and is in a good position among key voter
subgroups. In Montana, the environment is far from ideal for a national Democrat
candidate, and as John Walsh begins introducing himself and making his case to
voters, we will see if he is able to gain traction later this year. The survey topline
and crosstab results are included in this document. This full crosstabs and release
can be downloaded from the Magellan Strategies Slideshare page at
www.Slideshare.net or http://ow.ly/vEiMf .
3. Magellan Strategies Montana 2014 US Senate General Election Survey Release
April 10, 2014, 2,490n MoE +/- 1.96%
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
MagellanStrategies.com | 303-861-8585
Survey Methodology
The results were based on a statewide automated voice recorded interview survey
of 2,490 likely 2014 Montana general election voters. The interviews were
conducted on April 1st
and 2nd
of 2014. The individuals interviewed for the survey
were selected from a Montana voter file and were selected proportionate to the
state’s likely non-Presidential voting population in accordance with a probability
sample design that gives all voters an equal chance to be included. The results
were slightly weighted to reflect past gender and age demographics of the non-
Presidential voting population. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 1.96% at the 95
percent confidence interval. Any questions regarding this survey should be directed
to David Flaherty of Magellan Strategies at dflaherty@magellanstrategies.com or
303-861-8585.
Survey Commissioned By:
The individuals that commissioned this survey wish to remain anonymous.
About Magellan Strategies
Magellan Strategies is a full-service survey research firm offering quantitative,
qualitative, and predictive data analytic services to Republican candidates and
conservative organizations across the country. Any questions regarding this survey
research should be directed to David Flaherty at 303-861-8585 or
dflaherty@magellanstrategies.com.
4. Montana US Senate 2014 Survey Topline Results
Magellan Strategies are pleased to present the topline results for a 2,490n
automated voice recorded survey of likely general election voters in the state
of Montana. The interviews were conducted April 1st
and 2nd
, 2014. This
survey has a margin of error of +/- 1.96% at the 95 percent confidence
interval. This survey was weighted based upon past general election
demographics.
T1. Are you registered to vote?
Yes........................................................................100%
T2. How likely are you to vote in the November general election for the United States
Senate?
Extremely likely.......................................................93%
Very likely.................................................................5%
Somewhat likely........................................................2%
T3. Generally speaking, do you think things in the country are headed in the right
direction or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?
Right direction ........................................................30%
Wrong track............................................................64%
Unsure or no opinion................................................6%
T4. If the election for Congress were being held today would you vote for the Democrat
candidate or the Republican candidate?
Republican candidate .............................................50%
Democrat candidate................................................37%
Some other candidate ...............................................5%
Undecided................................................................7%
No opinion ...............................................................1%
5. Magellan ID#: MTSEN-040114 Montana US Senate General Election Survey Topline Results
Field Dates: 4/1/14 – 4/2/14, MoE +/- 1.96%, 2,490n
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585
2
Now I’m going to read to you the names of some people involved in politics. After
hearing the name please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that
person. If you don’t know the name of the person or organization, there is an option for
that as well. Let’s get started…
T5. The first name is John Walsh
Total Favorable .......................................................47%
Total Unfavorable ...................................................29%
No opinion of him ..................................................17%
Very favorable.........................................................24%
Somewhat favorable................................................23%
Very unfavorable.....................................................13%
Somewhat unfavorable............................................16%
Never heard of..........................................................7%
Unsure......................................................................0%
T6. The next person is Steve Daines.
Total Favorable .......................................................53%
Total Unfavorable ...................................................33%
No opinion of him ..................................................10%
Very favorable.........................................................34%
Somewhat favorable................................................19%
Very unfavorable.....................................................19%
Somewhat unfavorable............................................14%
Never heard of..........................................................3%
Unsure......................................................................1%
6. Magellan ID#: MTSEN-040114 Montana US Senate General Election Survey Topline Results
Field Dates: 4/1/14 – 4/2/14, MoE +/- 1.96%, 2,490n
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585
3
T7. If the election for the United States Senate were being held today for whom would
you vote if the candidates were John Walsh, Democrat, Steve Daines, Republican, Roger
Roots, Libertarian or some other candidate?
Steve Daines ...........................................................49%
John Walsh .............................................................36%
Roger Roots...............................................................4%
Some other candidate ...............................................5%
Undecided................................................................6%
Definitely Steve Daines...........................................37%
Probably Steve Daines ............................................12%
Definitely John Walsh .............................................28%
Probably John Walsh.................................................8%
T8. Do you consider yourself to be very conservative, conservative, moderate or liberal
when it comes to fiscal issues like taxes and government spending?
Very conservative....................................................31%
Conservative ...........................................................30%
Moderate ................................................................31%
Liberal.......................................................................7%
Unsure or no opinion................................................1%
T9. Do you consider yourself to be very conservative, conservative, moderate or liberal
when it comes to social issues like abortion and gay marriage?
Very conservative....................................................31%
Conservative ...........................................................19%
Moderate ................................................................25%
Liberal.....................................................................23%
Unsure or no opinion................................................2%
7. Magellan ID#: MTSEN-040114 Montana US Senate General Election Survey Topline Results
Field Dates: 4/1/14 – 4/2/14, MoE +/- 1.96%, 2,490n
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585
4
T10. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat or
something else?
Total Republican.....................................................35%
Total Democrat.......................................................27%
Something else........................................................38%
Strong Republican...................................................24%
Not so strong Republican........................................11%
Strong Democrat.....................................................18%
Not so strong Democrat ............................................9%
T11. For statistical purposes, are you a man or a woman?
Female....................................................................52%
Male .......................................................................48%
T12. Which of the following age groups applies to you?
18-29......................................................................10%
30-44......................................................................20%
45-54......................................................................17%
55-64......................................................................23%
65+.........................................................................30%
Unsure or no opinion................................................0%
T13. What is your marital status?
Married...................................................................72%
Widowed..................................................................9%
Separated..................................................................1%
Divorced...................................................................7%
Single and have never been married .........................8%
Unmarried and living with a partner .........................2%
Unsure or no opinion................................................1%
Survey Methodology
The results were based on a statewide automated voice recorded survey of 2,490 likely
2014 Montana general election voters. The interviews were conducted on April 1st
and
2nd
of 2014. The individuals interviewed for the survey were selected from a Montana
voter file and were selected proportionate to the state’s likely non-Presidential voting
population in accordance with a probability sample design that gives all voters an equal
chance to be included. The results were slightly weighted to reflect past gender and age
8. Magellan ID#: MTSEN-040114 Montana US Senate General Election Survey Topline Results
Field Dates: 4/1/14 – 4/2/14, MoE +/- 1.96%, 2,490n
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585
5
demographics of the non-Presidential voting population. The survey’s margin of error is
+/- 1.96% at the 95 percent confidence interval. Any questions regarding this survey
should be directed to David Flaherty of Magellan Strategies at
dflaherty@magellanstrategies.com or 303-861-8585.