04 2-decision trees-2016-09-23
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Decision trees can be used to model decisions with uncertain outcomes. They show the possible decisions, chance events that may occur, and resulting outcomes. The expected profits or values for each decision are calculated by multiplying the payoffs by their probabilities and working back up the tree. In this example, a computer store considers expanding its current site, moving to a new site, or waiting a year to see if demand grows. Calculating the expected 5-year revenues and costs under each option shows the highest value is to wait and see, and do nothing even if demand is strong.
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NewFCFF2StageTwo-Stage FCFF Discount ModelThis model is designed to value a firm, with two stages of growth, an initialperiod of higher growth and a subsequent period of stable growth.For a richer version of this model, try the fcffginzu.xls spreadsheet.Assumptions1. The firm is expected to grow at a higher growth rate in the first period.2. The growth rate will drop at the end of the first period to the stable growth rate.The user has to define the following inputs:1. Length of high growth period2. Expected growth rate in earnings during the high growth period.3. Capital Spending, Depreciation and Working Capital needs during the high growth period.4. Expected growth rate in earnings during the stable growth period.5. Inputs for the cost of capital. (Cost of equity, Cost of debt, Weights on debt and equity)Inputs to the modelCurrent EBIT =$5,186.00Current Interest Expense =$118.00Current Capital Spending$2,152.00Current Depreciation & Amort'n =$1,228.00Tax Rate on Income =28.49%Current Revenues =$16,701.00Current Non-cash Working Capital =$3,755.00Chg. Working Capital =$499.00Last yearCash and Marketable Securities$500.00Value of equity options issued by firm =$1,500.00Book Value of Debt =$1,479.00$1,315.00Book Value of Equity =$12,941.00$12,156.00Weights on Debt and EquityIs the firm publicly traded ?Yes( Yes or No)If yes, enter the market price per share =$125.50(in currency)& Number of shares outstanding =993.57(in #)& Market Value of Debt =$1,822.00( in currency)If no, do you want to use the book value debt ratio ?No(Yes or No)If no, enter the debt to capital ratio to be used =(in percent)Enter length of extraordinary growth period =5(in years)Do you want to change the debt ratio in the stable growth period?NoIf yes, enter the debt ratio for the stable growth period =Costs of ComponentsDo you want to enter cost of equity directly?No(Yes or No)If yes, enter the cost of equity =(in percent)If no, enter the inputs to the cost of equityBeta of the stock =0.8Riskfree rate=5.30%(in percent)Risk Premium=5.50%(in percent)Enter the cost of debt for cost of capital calculation5.50%( in percent)Earnings InputsDo you want to use the historical growth rate?No(Yes or No)If yes, enter EBIT from five years ago =$800.00(in currency)Do you have an outside estimate of growth ?Yes(Yes or No)If yes, enter the estimated growth:12.50%(in percent)Do you want to calculate the growth rate from fundamentals?Yes(Yes or No)The following will be the inputs to the fundamental growth formulation:ROC =27.53%Reinv. Rate =38.37%Do you want to change any of these inputs for the high growth period?No(Yes or No)If yes, specify the values for these inputs (Please enter all variables)ROC =10.00%Reinv. Rate =100.00%Specify weights to be assigned to each of these growth rates:Historical Growth Rate =0.00%(in percent)Outside Prediction of Growth =0.00%(in percent)Fundamental Estimate of Growth =100.00%(in percent)Enter growth rate in stable growth period?6.00%(in percent)BetaW.
NewFCFF2StageTwo-Stage FCFF Discount ModelThis model is designed t.docx
NewFCFF2StageTwo-Stage FCFF Discount ModelThis model is designed to value a firm, with two stages of growth, an initialperiod of higher growth and a subsequent period of stable growth.For a richer version of this model, try the fcffginzu.xls spreadsheet.Assumptions1. The firm is expected to grow at a higher growth rate in the first period.2. The growth rate will drop at the end of the first period to the stable growth rate.The user has to define the following inputs:1. Length of high growth period2. Expected growth rate in earnings during the high growth period.3. Capital Spending, Depreciation and Working Capital needs during the high growth period.4. Expected growth rate in earnings during the stable growth period.5. Inputs for the cost of capital. (Cost of equity, Cost of debt, Weights on debt and equity)Inputs to the modelCurrent EBIT =$5,186.00Current Interest Expense =$118.00Current Capital Spending$2,152.00Current Depreciation & Amort'n =$1,228.00Tax Rate on Income =28.49%Current Revenues =$16,701.00Current Non-cash Working Capital =$3,755.00Chg. Working Capital =$499.00Last yearCash and Marketable Securities$500.00Value of equity options issued by firm =$1,500.00Book Value of Debt =$1,479.00$1,315.00Book Value of Equity =$12,941.00$12,156.00Weights on Debt and EquityIs the firm publicly traded ?Yes( Yes or No)If yes, enter the market price per share =$125.50(in currency)& Number of shares outstanding =993.57(in #)& Market Value of Debt =$1,822.00( in currency)If no, do you want to use the book value debt ratio ?No(Yes or No)If no, enter the debt to capital ratio to be used =(in percent)Enter length of extraordinary growth period =5(in years)Do you want to change the debt ratio in the stable growth period?NoIf yes, enter the debt ratio for the stable growth period =Costs of ComponentsDo you want to enter cost of equity directly?No(Yes or No)If yes, enter the cost of equity =(in percent)If no, enter the inputs to the cost of equityBeta of the stock =0.8Riskfree rate=5.30%(in percent)Risk Premium=5.50%(in percent)Enter the cost of debt for cost of capital calculation5.50%( in percent)Earnings InputsDo you want to use the historical growth rate?No(Yes or No)If yes, enter EBIT from five years ago =$800.00(in currency)Do you have an outside estimate of growth ?Yes(Yes or No)If yes, enter the estimated growth:12.50%(in percent)Do you want to calculate the growth rate from fundamentals?Yes(Yes or No)The following will be the inputs to the fundamental growth formulation:ROC =27.53%Reinv. Rate =38.37%Do you want to change any of these inputs for the high growth period?No(Yes or No)If yes, specify the values for these inputs (Please enter all variables)ROC =10.00%Reinv. Rate =100.00%Specify weights to be assigned to each of these growth rates:Historical Growth Rate =0.00%(in percent)Outside Prediction of Growth =0.00%(in percent)Fundamental Estimate of Growth =100.00%(in percent)Enter growth rate in stable growth period?6.00%(in percent)BetaW.
NewFCFF2StageTwo-Stage FCFF Discount ModelThis model is designed t.docx
NewFCFF2StageTwo-Stage FCFF Discount ModelThis model is designed to value a firm, with two stages of growth, an initialperiod of higher growth and a subsequent period of stable growth.For a richer version of this model, try the fcffginzu.xls spreadsheet.Assumptions1. The firm is expected to grow at a higher growth rate in the first period.2. The growth rate will drop at the end of the first period to the stable growth rate.The user has to define the following inputs:1. Length of high growth period2. Expected growth rate in earnings during the high growth period.3. Capital Spending, Depreciation and Working Capital needs during the high growth period.4. Expected growth rate in earnings during the stable growth period.5. Inputs for the cost of capital. (Cost of equity, Cost of debt, Weights on debt and equity)Inputs to the modelCurrent EBIT =$5,186.00Current Interest Expense =$118.00Current Capital Spending$2,152.00Current Depreciation & Amort'n =$1,228.00Tax Rate on Income =28.49%Current Revenues =$16,701.00Current Non-cash Working Capital =$3,755.00Chg. Working Capital =$499.00Last yearCash and Marketable Securities$500.00Value of equity options issued by firm =$1,500.00Book Value of Debt =$1,479.00$1,315.00Book Value of Equity =$12,941.00$12,156.00Weights on Debt and EquityIs the firm publicly traded ?Yes( Yes or No)If yes, enter the market price per share =$125.50(in currency)& Number of shares outstanding =993.57(in #)& Market Value of Debt =$1,822.00( in currency)If no, do you want to use the book value debt ratio ?No(Yes or No)If no, enter the debt to capital ratio to be used =(in percent)Enter length of extraordinary growth period =5(in years)Do you want to change the debt ratio in the stable growth period?NoIf yes, enter the debt ratio for the stable growth period =Costs of ComponentsDo you want to enter cost of equity directly?No(Yes or No)If yes, enter the cost of equity =(in percent)If no, enter the inputs to the cost of equityBeta of the stock =0.8Riskfree rate=5.30%(in percent)Risk Premium=5.50%(in percent)Enter the cost of debt for cost of capital calculation5.50%( in percent)Earnings InputsDo you want to use the historical growth rate?No(Yes or No)If yes, enter EBIT from five years ago =$800.00(in currency)Do you have an outside estimate of growth ?Yes(Yes or No)If yes, enter the estimated growth:12.50%(in percent)Do you want to calculate the growth rate from fundamentals?Yes(Yes or No)The following will be the inputs to the fundamental growth formulation:ROC =27.53%Reinv. Rate =38.37%Do you want to change any of these inputs for the high growth period?No(Yes or No)If yes, specify the values for these inputs (Please enter all variables)ROC =10.00%Reinv. Rate =100.00%Specify weights to be assigned to each of these growth rates:Historical Growth Rate =0.00%(in percent)Outside Prediction of Growth =0.00%(in percent)Fundamental Estimate of Growth =100.00%(in percent)Enter growth rate in stable growth period?6.00%(in percent)BetaW.
Decision Making with Excel for Managers
As a manager you will be tempted to trust your guts and use your experience to decide what and how to do it. Quite often this approach may be misleading. It is much better to use data driven approach and before you make the decision look at the potential consequences. In this course I will show you how to make more rational choices as a manger using Excel. We will go through a lot of case studies that will help you master this skill.
In the course you will learn the following things:
1. How to be data driven in solving problems
2. How to make better decisions using Excel
3. How to handle uncertainty when you are making decisions
4. Which method, framework you should use in a specific situation
You will learn how to make decisions using make or buy analysis, voting system, simulations, rankings, how to analyze the costs of different investments (aiming at cost reduction, removing bottlenecks, requested by the customers). We will also how to apply the portfolio decision making, value proposition alignment, strategic alignment frameworks.
For more check my course: https://bit.ly/DecisionMakingExcel
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This document discusses how Store Here was able to increase the revenue and value of Property A even as its occupancy decreased slightly. Over three years, Store Here raised the property's monthly gross revenue by $20,323 through increased rental rates while only incurring $4,153 in additional monthly costs. This resulted in a higher net operating income and increased the property's value from $3.5 million to over $6 million when assessed at a 7% capitalization rate. The document argues that Store Here's management strategies can generate substantial returns with only modest costs.
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The document discusses how Modgility adopted value-based pricing to increase profitability. It defines value pricing as charging customers the maximum they are willing to pay for a service before work begins. The agency's model includes establishing a revenue goal with the client, determining a fixed fee to cover costs plus margin, and a results fee of up to 10% of the revenue goal if the goal is achieved. This aligns the agency's compensation with client success. The document provides examples and outlines the steps to develop a growth plan, determine fees, and position value pricing to prospects.
Valuation Techniques
This document provides an overview of various methods for valuing companies, including discounted cash flow (DCF) modeling. It discusses key DCF concepts like present value, free cash flow, growth rates, and weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Other valuation metrics mentioned include P/E ratios, comparable company analysis, and liquidation value based on tangible book value or net current assets. The document aims to explain the theoretical underpinnings of intrinsic stock valuation.
How to break through the million dollar level and beyond in 2013
This document provides guidance on growing a business beyond $1 million in annual revenue. It discusses measuring business performance in key areas like finances, marketing, sales and operations. For finances, it recommends tracking revenue by department, costs, margins, expenses and ratios. For marketing, it covers the 4 P's - product, price, place and promotion. For sales, it lists important metrics like leads, proposals, closing rates and compensation. For operations, it emphasizes effective routing to increase revenue and efficiency while lowering expenses and labor costs. The overall message is that businesses must plan growth, set goals and closely monitor key performance indicators.
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Budgeting for Growth is a workshop about building a profitable company using budgets. It discusses what a budget is, why businesses create budgets, how to forecast revenues, and how to budget for direct costs, gross margin, sales and marketing expenses, general and administrative costs, and net income. The presentation emphasizes calculating the lifetime value of a customer to determine how much should be spent on marketing to acquire new customers.
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The document discusses concepts related to residual income and building a business. It describes residual income as earning money from work done previously like through consulting, writing, or software. It discusses Robert Kiyosaki and the cash flow quadrant. The remainder summarizes steps to build a business through sponsoring others and earning different levels of residual income up to $150,000 per year.
People Profits & Palestine
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An annual budget is critical for business growth and should include projected expenses and income along with how expenses will be funded from income sources. The budget will need adjustments throughout the year to reflect reality. Before investing or spending, businesses should consider the likelihood and timing of returns. Increasing revenue can be done by adding complementary services or products, adjusting shipping charges, using coupons, and incentivizing sales partners. Reducing costs involves using VoIP phones, recycled printer cartridges, going paperless, using technology for meetings, and sharing resources with other small businesses. Profit is key, so managing costs and revenue is important.
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Valuation of Goodwill (12th commerce / Management Accounting)
The document discusses goodwill, including its meaning, characteristics, factors affecting it, methods of valuation, and provides an example valuation. Goodwill represents the reputation and customer satisfaction that leads to higher profits. It is an intangible asset that is valued using methods like the average profits method, super profits method, or capitalization method. For example, goodwill of a firm was valued at three years' purchase of the average profits of the last five years, which was calculated to be ₹36,000, resulting in a goodwill value of ₹1,31,200.
Session 7 valuation
This is the 7th in the 8th session course on Entrepreneurship for working executives and this provides an overview of the different methods of valuing a company with emphasis on the DCF method. A couple of examples of how startups in India have increased their valuation have also been included based upon publicly gleaned information
Principle corporate finance
This document provides an overview of long-term financial planning principles and processes. It discusses key concepts like financial goals, growth objectives, planning horizons, and worst-case/normal/best-case scenarios. Examples are given of real companies that failed to properly consider long-term planning, prioritizing growth over profitability. The document also demonstrates how to create pro forma financial statements by linking income statement and balance sheet items to sales forecasts and maintaining consistent ratios over time.
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The document discusses the importance of contractors understanding their break-even point and how to calculate it. It provides examples of annual and monthly budgets, showing how to determine break-even revenue, sales, and hours. It also discusses how changing variables like overhead costs, gross profit margins, or adding new expenses can impact break-even levels. The document recommends contractors regularly monitor their break-even and take action if they are not hitting monthly targets.
Burke workshop doing financial projections
The document provides guidance on creating financial projections for a new business. It recommends developing income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements on a monthly basis for the first two years. The key steps are to project revenue based on customer growth, then estimate associated costs of goods sold, operating expenses, depreciation, interest and taxes. Comparing projections to industry benchmarks helps ensure realistic assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins and cost structures. The projections should identify the funding needed each year until the business reaches profitability and self-sufficiency.
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NewFCFF2StageTwo-Stage FCFF Discount ModelThis model is designed t.docx
NewFCFF2StageTwo-Stage FCFF Discount ModelThis model is designed t.docx
NewFCFF2StageTwo-Stage FCFF Discount ModelThis model is designed t.docx
NewFCFF2StageTwo-Stage FCFF Discount ModelThis model is designed t.docx
NewFCFF2StageTwo-Stage FCFF Discount ModelThis model is designed t.docx
NewFCFF2StageTwo-Stage FCFF Discount ModelThis model is designed t.docx
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如果你回国在学历认证方面有以下难题请联系我们我们将竭诚为你解决认证瓶颈
1所有材料真实但资料不全无法提供完全齐整的原件。【如：成绩单丶毕业证丶回国证明等材料中有遗失的。】
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如果你是以上情况之一请联系我们我们将在第一时间内给你免费咨询相关信息。我们将帮助你整理认证所需的各种材料.帮你解决国外学历认证难题。
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留信网认证的作用:
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6:个人职称评审加20分
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2、国（境）学习人员提供就业推荐信服务
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我们所定的价格是非常合理的，而且我们现在做得单子大多数都是代理和回头客户介绍的所以一般现在有新的单子 我给客户的都是第一手的代理价格，因为我想坦诚对待大家 不想跟大家在价格方面浪费时间
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一比一原版(uvic毕业证书)加拿大维多利亚大学毕业证如何办理
原版一模一样【微信：741003700 】【(uvic毕业证书)加拿大维多利亚大学毕业证成绩单】【微信：741003700 】学位证，留信认证（真实可查，永久存档）原件一模一样纸张工艺/offer、雅思、外壳等材料/诚信可靠,可直接看成品样本，帮您解决无法毕业带来的各种难题！外壳，原版制作，诚信可靠，可直接看成品样本。行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备。十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，包您满意。
本公司拥有海外各大学样板无数，能完美还原。
1:1完美还原海外各大学毕业材料上的工艺：水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠。文字图案浮雕、激光镭射、紫外荧光、温感、复印防伪等防伪工艺。材料咨询办理、认证咨询办理请加学历顾问Q/微741003700
【主营项目】
一.毕业证【q微741003700】成绩单、使馆认证、教育部认证、雅思托福成绩单、学生卡等！
二.真实使馆公证(即留学回国人员证明,不成功不收费)
三.真实教育部学历学位认证（教育部存档！教育部留服网站永久可查）
四.办理各国各大学文凭(一对一专业服务,可全程监控跟踪进度)
如果您处于以下几种情况：
◇在校期间，因各种原因未能顺利毕业……拿不到官方毕业证【q/微741003700】
◇面对父母的压力，希望尽快拿到；
◇不清楚认证流程以及材料该如何准备；
◇回国时间很长，忘记办理；
◇回国马上就要找工作，办给用人单位看；
◇企事业单位必须要求办理的
◇需要报考公务员、购买免税车、落转户口
◇申请留学生创业基金
留信网认证的作用:
1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份
2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定
3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
6:个人职称评审加20分
7:个人信誉贷款加10分
8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才
办理(uvic毕业证书)加拿大维多利亚大学毕业证【微信：741003700 】外观非常简单，由纸质材料制成，上面印有校徽、校名、毕业生姓名、专业等信息。
办理(uvic毕业证书)加拿大维多利亚大学毕业证【微信：741003700 】格式相对统一，各专业都有相应的模板。通常包括以下部分：
校徽：象征着学校的荣誉和传承。
校名:学校英文全称
授予学位：本部分将注明获得的具体学位名称。
毕业生姓名：这是最重要的信息之一，标志着该证书是由特定人员获得的。
颁发日期：这是毕业正式生效的时间，也代表着毕业生学业的结束。
其他信息：根据不同的专业和学位，可能会有一些特定的信息或章节。
办理(uvic毕业证书)加拿大维多利亚大学毕业证【微信：741003700 】价值很高，需要妥善保管。一般来说，应放置在安全、干燥、防潮的地方，避免长时间暴露在阳光下。如需使用，最好使用复印件而不是原件，以免丢失。
综上所述，办理(uvic毕业证书)加拿大维多利亚大学毕业证【微信：741003700 】是证明身份和学历的高价值文件。外观简单庄重，格式统一，包括重要的个人信息和发布日期。对持有人来说，妥善保管是非常重要的。
Protecting Privacy in CDR Analysis: Best Practices from Experts
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Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd - Corporate Presentation, June 12, 2024
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一比一原版（Carleton毕业证）加拿大卡尔顿大学毕业证如何办理
原件一模一样【微信：WP101A】【（Carleton毕业证）加拿大卡尔顿大学毕业证学位证成绩单】【微信：WP101A】（留信学历认证永久存档查询）采用学校原版纸张、特殊工艺完全按照原版一比一制作（包括：隐形水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠，文字图案浮雕，激光镭射，紫外荧光，温感，复印防伪）行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备，十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，业务范围有加拿大、英国、澳洲、韩国、美国、新加坡，新西兰等学历材料，包您满意。
【业务选择办理准则】
一、工作未确定，回国需先给父母、亲戚朋友看下文凭的情况，办理一份就读学校的毕业证【微信：WP101A】文凭即可
二、回国进私企、外企、自己做生意的情况，这些单位是不查询毕业证真伪的，而且国内没有渠道去查询国外文凭的真假，也不需要提供真实教育部认证。鉴于此，办理一份毕业证【微信：WP101A】即可
三、进国企，银行，事业单位，考公务员等等，这些单位是必需要提供真实教育部认证的，办理教育部认证所需资料众多且烦琐，所有材料您都必须提供原件，我们凭借丰富的经验，快捷的绿色通道帮您快速整合材料，让您少走弯路。
留信网认证的作用:
1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份【微信：WP101A】
2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定
3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
6:个人职称评审加20分
7:个人信誉贷款加10分
8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才
→ 【关于价格问题（保证一手价格）
我们所定的价格是非常合理的，而且我们现在做得单子大多数都是代理和回头客户介绍的所以一般现在有新的单子 我给客户的都是第一手的代理价格，因为我想坦诚对待大家 不想跟大家在价格方面浪费时间
对于老客户或者被老客户介绍过来的朋友，我们都会适当给一些优惠。
选择实体注册公司办理，更放心，更安全！我们的承诺：可来公司面谈，可签订合同，会陪同客户一起到教育部认证窗口递交认证材料，客户在教育部官方认证查询网站查询到认证通过结果后付款，不成功不收费！
办理（Carleton毕业证）加拿大卡尔顿大学毕业证学位证【微信：WP101A 】外观非常精致，由特殊纸质材料制成，上面印有校徽、校名、毕业生姓名、专业等信息。
办理（Carleton毕业证）加拿大卡尔顿大学毕业证学位证【微信：WP101A 】格式相对统一，各专业都有相应的模板。通常包括以下部分：
校徽：象征着学校的荣誉和传承。
校名:学校英文全称
授予学位：本部分将注明获得的具体学位名称。
毕业生姓名：这是最重要的信息之一，标志着该证书是由特定人员获得的。
颁发日期：这是毕业正式生效的时间，也代表着毕业生学业的结束。
其他信息：根据不同的专业和学位，可能会有一些特定的信息或章节。
办理（Carleton毕业证）加拿大卡尔顿大学毕业证学位证【微信：WP101A 】价值很高，需要妥善保管。一般来说，应放置在安全、干燥、防潮的地方，避免长时间暴露在阳光下。如需使用，最好使用复印件而不是原件，以免丢失。
综上所述，办理（Carleton毕业证）加拿大卡尔顿大学毕业证学位证【微信：WP101A 】是证明身份和学历的高价值文件。外观简单庄重，格式统一，包括重要的个人信息和发布日期。对持有人来说，妥善保管是非常重要的。
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04 2-decision trees-2016-09-23
- 1. Decision Trees Dr. Ron Lembke Operations Management
- 2. Decision Trees Consider different possible decisions, and different possible outcomes Compute expected profits of each decision Choose decision with highest expected profits, work your way back up the tree.
- 3. Decision Trees Decision point Chance events Outcomes Calculate expected value of each chance event, starting at far right Working our way back toward the beginning, choosing highest expected outcome at each decision A B 3 4 10 5 C D E F
- 4. Simple Example A B 3 4 10 5 C 70% D 30% E F Expected value of A: 0.7*4 + 0.3*10 = 2.8 + 3 = 5.8 Expected value of B: 5 Choose A?
- 5. Decision Trees Example 2 Computer store thinks demand may grow. Expansion costs $87k, new site $210k, and would cost same if wait a year New site: 55% chance of profits of $195k. 45% chance of $115k profits. Expand Current 55% chance of $190k profits 45% chance of $100k profits Wait and see- enlarge store next year if demand grows If high demand, $190k with expanded store If high demand, $170 with current store If weak demand, $105k with current store Find the expected profits over 5 years, choose best one.
- 6. Basic Structure of Tree Weak Growth Weak Growth Strong Growth Strong Growth Move Expand Wait and See Weak Growth Strong Growth Expand Do nothing Hackers’ Computer Store
- 7. Outcomes in each scenario? Weak Growth Weak Growth Strong Growth Strong Growth Move Expand Wait and See Weak Growth Strong Growth Expand Do nothing Hackers’ Computer Store Revenue - Move Cost Revenue - Move Cost Revenue – Expand Cost Revenue – Expand Cost Revenue Rev – Expand Cost Revenue
- 8. Add in Probabilities Weak Growth Weak Growth Strong Growth Strong Growth Move Expand 0.45 0.55 0.55 0.45 Wait and See Weak Growth Strong Growth 0.55 0.45 Expand Do nothing Hackers’ Computer Store Revenue - Move Cost Revenue - Move Cost Revenue – Expand Cost Revenue – Expand Cost Revenue Rev – Expand Cost Revenue
- 9. 5 year Revenues and Costs Move, growth: 195*5 – 210 = 765 Move, low: 115*5 – 210 = 365 Expand, growth: 190*5 – 87 = 863 Expand, low: 100*5 – 87 = 413 Wait, strong, expand: 170+190*4-87=843 Sales of 170, then 4 years of 190 Wait, strong, do nothing: 170*5 = 850 Sales of 170 every year Wait, low, do nothing: 105*5 = 525
- 10. Compute Payoff Values 765 365 863 413 Weak Growth Weak Growth Strong Growth Strong Growth Move Expand 525 843 850 0.45 0.55 0.55 0.45 Wait and See Weak Growth Strong Growth 0.55 0.45 Expand Do nothing Hackers’ Computer Store
- 11. Making the Decision Starting at the far right, look at the “Wait and See” option. If demand is strong, we would obviously not expand. $850k is better than $843. Eliminate the “Expand option”
- 12. Pruning Branches 765 365 863 413 Weak Growth Weak Growth Strong Growth Strong Growth Move Expand 525 843 850 0.45 0.55 0.55 0.45 Wait and See Weak Growth Strong Growth 0.55 0.45 Expand Do nothing Hackers’ Computer Store
- 13. Expected Values Move: 0.55* 765 + 0.45*365 = $585,000 Wait and See: 0.55*850 + 0.45*525 = $703,750 Expand: 0.55 * 863 + 0.45 * 413 = $660,500 Highest expected value is to Wait and see, and either way, do nothing!
- 14. Expected Values 765 365 863 413 Weak Growth Weak Growth Strong Growth Strong Growth Move Expand 525 843 850 0.45 0.55 0.55 0.45 Wait and See Weak Growth Strong Growth 0.55 0.45 Expand Do nothing Hackers’ Computer Store $585,000 660,500 703,750
- 15. Other Criteria Another criteria to use is to pick the one with the highest down side. Best guaranteed result Under this, do nothing still wins. Expected Value is not the only criteria you might want to use Which has the best possible outcome? Expand, if sales are good, $863.
- 16. Is Dollar next year =$1 Today? Another criteria to use is to pick the one with the highest down side. Under this, do nothing still wins. We could also consider the expected value of the future cash streams. PV = $100/(1+r) = $100/(1.16)=$86.27
- 17. Present Values – Appendix C At 16%, Next year is worth 0.862 =(1+rate)^(-years) Year 2: 0.743 Year 3: 0.641 Year 4: 0.552 Year 5: 0.476 195 per year for 5 years: 195 * (3.274) =638.43
- 18. Decision Tree-NPV 428,487 166,544 535,116 240,429 Weak Growth Weak Growth Strong Growth Strong Growth Move Expand 343,801 529,874 556,630 0.45 0.55 0.55 0.45 Wait and See Weak Growth Strong Growth 0.55 0.45 Expand Do nothing Hackers’ Computer Store $310,613 402,507 460,857
- 19. Real Options Assess the value to me of being able to change my mind in the future Changed problem slightly - Reduced benefit doing nothing, high demand
- 20. Decision Trees 765 365 863 413 Weak Strong Move Expand 525 843 820 0.25 0.75 Wait and See Expand Do nothing Hackers’ Computer Store Weak Strong0.25 0.75 Weak Strong0.25 0.75 $465,000 533,000 604,500 820 525 Weak Strong0.25 0.75 Do Nothing 598,750
- 21. Real Options If we didn’t have the wait and see option, we would Do Nothing. Option to wait and see is worth $5,750 Move Expand Wait and See 465,000 533,000 604,500 Do Nothing 598,750 $5,750
- 22. Summary Building decision trees What are decisions, chance events, what is the sequence? Costs of revenues of each sequence? Calculating Expected values Deciding a course of action Just for your Edification Time Value of Money Real Options