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Decision Making for Managers
Decision Making
Facing Uncertainty?
• The only certain thing in life is
Death
Decision Making
Facing Uncertainty?
• Irreducible uncertainty leads to
• Inevitable error leads to
• Unavoidable injustice
Jack Dowie& Ken Hammond
Course Objectives
After this training course, attendants will be able to:
• Recognize the background factors that managers
need to take into consideration in formulating their
decisions
• Understand the intuition/analysis approach to
decision making
• Understand interactive decision making
Course Objectives
• Understand the role of knowledge technology
and value technology in decision technology in
health related matters
• Develop the logical process of decision
analysis and analytical decision making
• Plan and Oversee decision implementation
Decision Making
Decisions facing managers:
• Simple decisions: only one possible course of
action
• Routine decisions: way to proceed set out in
organization’s rules or protocols
• Non-routine decisions: more complex with no
existing policy to determine what to do
Decision Making
Strategic Decisions:
• Corporate strategy what should we be doing
• Business strategy: how to compete in the
market as a provider
• Functional strategy : how to operationalize
corporate and business strategic decisions
How Do You Make Decisions?
Exercise
How Do You Make Decisions?
• Precedent
• Abdicate responsibility
• Pick what seems best
• Cost and hassle manager!!
• Move away but problems never go away
• “paper over the cracks” approach
• Discuss ? With whom
Decision Making; Background
• Organizational vision, mission, values and
prevailing culture
• Legal and statutory considerations
• Economic and financial considerations
• The market
• The customer
Decision Making; Background
• Global considerations
• Environment and ecology
• Authority, resistance and change
• Communication aspects
• The use of IT in decision making
• Emotions in decision making
Vision, Mission, Values and
Organizational Culture
Vision:
– the answer to the question “what do we want to
become?”
– The inspiration
– The general direction
– Guides in decision making
Mission, Values and Culture
• Mission:
– describes what our business is and distinguishes the
organization from others
• Values:
– Describes what the organization stands for and its ethical ,
moral and social values
• Culture:
– Describes the norms prevailing in the organization
Legal and Statutory Considerations
• Laws
• Established practice
• Regulatory bodies
• Professional associations
• Organizational protocols
• Exercise:
Review the documents provided and outline relevant regulations
that you were not aware of
Economic , Financial and Risk
Considerations
• Economy basics:
– Inflation/recession cycles
– Base rates
– Currency markets
• Financial statements:
– Balance sheet
– Income statement
– Cash flow statement
• Forecasts
• Risk analysis
Market Considerations
• State of the market: market research
• Market basics:
– The law of supply and demand
• Product life-cycle:
– Growth
– Maturity
– Decline
The Customer
• External customer:
– Needs
– Wants
– Financial abilities
• Internal customer
– Competence
– willingness
Global Considerations
• Freedom of information
• Drive for quality and standards
• International competition
• GATT
• TRIPS
• Ease of travel!!!
Environmental Considerations
• Protection of the environment
• Safe waste disposal
• Drive towards natural ingredients
• Product safety
• Work-force safety and rights
• Customer safety and rights
Authority, Resistance and Change
• Leadership commitment
• Anticipated resistance: how to deal with
• Adapting to Change
In today’s business environment the only constant is
change.Successful organizations effectively manage
change,continuously adapting their bureaucracies,
strategies, systems , products , and cultures to survive the
shocks and prosper from the forces that decimate the
competition.
Robert Waterman
Communication Aspects
• Communication is key to successful decision making
• Managers as communicators:
– Successful managers spend 70-80% of their time
communicating
• Channels of communication within the organization:
– Formal
– informal
IT and decision making
• Factual approach to decision making
• Data collection, and validation
• Data analysis
• Information
• The use of data bases
• Internet resources
Emotions and Decision Making
• “When a man is prey to his emotions, he is
not his own master,but lies at the mercy of
fortune.”
Spinoza.
• It is human nature to make decisions based on
emotion rather than fact. But nothing could
be more illogical.
Toshiba corporation.
Decision Making and Emotions
Make decisions with your heart, and what you
will end up with is heart disease
Harvey Mackay&William Marrow
• “Emotions are magical transformations of the
world”
Sartre
Decision Making and Emotions
• Emotions distort
Sartre
• Emotions provide valuable information
Nietzsche
• Emotions have a cognitive component: two
judgments:something good or bad about to
happen+appropriate way to deal with
Aristotle
Decision Making and Emotions
• If you ignore emotions in decision making you
risk:
– Missing out their informational value
– Allowing them to distort our view of the situation,
the problem, what matters, our options and our
ability to implement decisions
Emotions, the Rules:
• Before making decisions ask yourself :
– What are your emotions e.g. fear , anxiety
– What are they about?
– Are they appropriate?
– What information the emotions are providing?
– What the emotions imply we should do?
Decision Making
Part II
Decision Making
• Rationality:
– Decisions are made in a consistent manner to
maximize benefit ( utility)
– Human beings are absolutely rational in their
economic choices
– Choice is made based on maximum benefit
– Absolutely rational behavior is more predictable
than irrational behavior
Interactive Decision Making
• Introduced by John von Neuman in the book
The Theory of Games and Economic Behavior
• Studies interactive decision making; what
happens when agents with different goals interact,
each making decisions on basis on what’s best for
itself, while taking into account that the others are
doing the same
The Game Theory
• Game is a scientific metaphor for a wide range of
human interactions where outcome depends on
interactive strategies of two or more persons with
different motives
• Provides a theory of economic and strategic behavior
when people interact directly rather than through
the market
• Involved in economics, mathematics, strategy,
psychology , behavioral and social sciences
The Prisoners’ Dilemma
• Invented by Tucker in 1950 as a classical
example of interactive decision making
• The game, set in one paper, has been the most
influential one page in social sciences in 2nd
half of the 20th century
• The Game: refer to the exercise
The Prisoners’ Dilemma
The manager has asked Mohsen Dorgham and Mohamed Moharam to pay a field visit
to the site of a new prospective project and do on site assessment for feasibility.
Dorgham convinced Moharam that they can get the information over phone, cook
the report and enjoy the days off. Reading the report, the manager suspected the
plot, called them separately and faced each with his suspicions. He offered each
the following deal:
– If they both confess to report fabrication each will get 15 days salary cut
– If one confesses and the other denies, the one who confesses will be
pardoned while the other who denies will be fired
– If both deny they will get 5 days salary cut each
The offers are made to each of them separately, both are kept in separate rooms
till they meet the director for further investigation
Discuss their possible strategies
The Prisoners’ Dilemma
• Dominant Strategy: when each player in the game
evaluates separately each strategy combinations and
for each combination chooses from his own
strategies the one that gives the best pay-off
• Dominant strategy equilibrium: when each player in
the game plays the dominant strategy,the
combination of dominant strategies and
corresponding payoffs constitute the dominant
strategy equilibrium for the game
The Prisoners’ Dilemma
The Aftermath
Individually rational action results in both
persons being made worse off in terms of
their own self-interested purposes
Decision Making
• Integrating intuition and analysis;
– Not an either or situation
– Decision making should be based on integrating
intuition and analysis in decision making
– Intuition is important in situations of great
uncertainty and little precedent and when
choosing among several plausible alternatives
Decision Making
Intuition Vs Analysis
“ I believe in intuition and
inspiration. At times I feel
certain that I am right
without knowing the reason.
Imagination is more
important than knowledge,
because knowledge is
limited while imagination
embraces the entire world”
Albert
Einstein
Decision Making
Intuition
• Rapid unconscious
processing of data
• Combined by simple
averaging principle
• Low consistency
• Moderate accuracy but low
potential for major errors
Analysis
• Slow conscious processing
of data
• Combined using more
complex principles
• High consistency
• High accuracy, greater
potential for major
errors,more easily
identifiable
Decision Analysis
(Decision Theory)
• It is “the attempt to assess utilities and
probabilities of outcome, in order to calculate
the expected utility of decision options”.
(Baron, 1988)
• It involves:
– First searching for options
– Then evaluating them in terms of likelihood and
utilities of consequences
Decision Analysis
Possible
Consequences
Options
Best Outcome Worst
Outcome
Option 1
Option 2
Knowledge, Value and Decision
• To produce knowledge, elicit knowledge and
evaluate knowledge claims we need a
knowledge technology
• To establish what values are held and elicit value
judgments we need a
Valuation technology
• To make decisions we need a
Decision technology
• DT needs inputs from KT and VT
Value Elements in Health Decision
Making
• Health versus non-health
• Life expectancy versus health related quality
of life
• Components of HRQOL (morbidity, self-
care,pain, discomfort,activities etc)
• Time preference
• Risk preference
Decision Making
Part III
Decision Making;the Process
The hats of decision making:
• Creative thinking (green hat)
• Critical thinking (black hat)
• Information (white hat)
• Emotions & Intuition ( red hat)
• Process (blue hat)
Critical Thinking
• “ A process, the goal of which is to make
reasonable decisions about what to believe
and what to do”
Ennis,1996
• Two common approaches to critical thinking:
– The fallacies approach
– The good reasoning approach
Critical Thinking, the Fallacies
Approach
• Common fallacies:
– Attacking the person rather than the relevant
argument
– Attacking something because it has been held by
someone evil or stupid
– Rash generalizations
– Caricaturing opponent’s view making it more
implausible than it really is
The Fallacies Approach
• Identifies fallacies i.e bad reasons for decisions
• Provides no account of what makes a good
decision
• The major source of fallacious reasoning is
vividness and emotional language
Critical Thinking; the Good
Reasoning Approach
• Decisions based on the pros and cons for each
option
• Based on analysis of the characteristics of a
good reason:
– Acceptable (true reason)
– Relevant to the conclusion
– Strong (important)
Critical Thinking
• Apply critical thinking approaches to the
following decision situations:
– I advise all silent gall stones patients to have
cholecystectomy because of the risk of serious
complications
– I can not believe that the board would accept the
proposal of such an incompetent loser.
Creative Thinking
• The generation of thoughts, ideas, decisions
and actions, often by novel and unexpected
means
• Common techniques include:
– Brain storming
– Lateral thinking
– Win/win thinking
Creative Thinking;Brain Storming
• Stages:
1. State and discuss the problem
2. Restate the problem “ How to”
3. Write down problem statement
4. Warm up session
5. Brainstorm, record suggestions on flip chart
6. Finish with wildest ideas
Brain Storming
• Guidelines for brainstorming:
– Suspend judgment
– Freewheel
– Value quantity
– Cross-fertilize
• Brainstorming helps to generate options
Brain Storming;Exercise
• You want to attend Enrique Iglesias concert
but you don’t have the 200 pounds you need
to buy the cheapest ticket.
Use brainstorming technique to generate
options
Creative Thinking; Lateral Thinking
• A special type of creative thinking which
involves “ pattern switching within a
patterning system” ( de Bono,1982)
• Lateral thinking allows getting a fresh
perspective
• Lateral thinking helps reframe the problem
and coming up with new options
Lateral Thinking; Exercise
• Your son doesn’t want to join you on your
leave by the seaside unless you take his friend
with you.Your wife insists he should join you
for a family break. Your place by the seaside
doesn’t have an extra space for guests.
Use lateral thinking to provide a fresh
perspective into your dilemma
Creative Thinking; Win/Win Thinking
• Win/win means agreements or solutions that
are mutually beneficial, mutually satisfying
Steven Covey,1992
• Win/win thinking helps with generation of
reasons
Win/Win Thinking;Exercise
• Apply win/win thinking technique to generate
reasons in the previous example
• The Jerusalem Dilemma!!!
Creative and Critical Thinking
• Creative thinking covers limitations of critical
thinking by generation of reasons, reframing
problems and generating options
• Critical thinking skills are needed to evaluate
all options generated by different creative
thinking techniques
Decision Making
Part IV
Decision Making Process:
The Progress Model
Tim LeBon & David Arnaud
1-Understanding The Situation
(finding the problem)and the
Decision
– Express situation in headlines outlining decision
needed and options already there
– Use critical thinking to evaluate statements
– Identify your emotions and understand what they
tell you
– Rephrase the problem to express your current
understanding
2-Understanding What Matters
– Objectives and values you like to satisfy by the
decision
– Use creative thinking to reveal other things that
really matter
– Think of others who might be involved
– Think long term
– Rate things from 5 to 0
3-Searching for Options:
• Review options identified in stage1
• Review what really matters in stage 2
• Brainstorm possible solutions
• Write down possible decisions for evaluation
4-Evaluation of Options
Objective Strength Option 1 Option 2
1
2
3
4
4-Evaluation of Options
The Weight and Score
• For every objective allocate a weight out of 10
to reflect its importance to you
• For every option give a score from 1 to 3
reflecting how much it satisfies your
objectives
• Develop a decision matrix
• Multiply the weight by score to get a final
score for each option
5-Implementing Decision
• Resources
• Action plan
• Monitoring and evaluation
• Corrective action
• Decision review and evaluation
Group Decision Making
• Brain Storming
• The Nominal Group Technique
• The Delphi Technique
Group Decision Making
• Advantages:
– More alternatives
– Involve people in implementation
– Reduce uncertainty
• Disadvantages:
– Time
– Group thinking
– Dispersed accountability
Quantitative Decision-Making Tools
• Decision trees
• Payback analysis
• Simulations
Decision Making; Golden Rules
• Make decisions!!!
• Do your homework but avoid analysis
paralysis
• Listen to your heart (intuition!!)
• Don’t waste time reviving or revisiting what
would have been
Bill Marriot
Decision Making; End of the Road
Map
• When a crisis forces choosing among
alternatives, most people will chose the worst
possible one.
Rudin’s Law
• Life is full of lousy options
General P.Kelly
Negotiation Skills
• We are constantly negotiating with others in
life
• The art of negotiation:
– Power
– Time
– Information
Power
• The ability to get things done
• Whenever you expand your options , you have
more power!!
• Power:
– Power of competition
– Power of legitimacy
– Power of investment
– Power of persistence
Power
• Power:
– Power of expertise
– Power of precedent
– Power of risk taking
– Power of knowing the needs
– Power of reward and punishment
Time
• Most concessions are made just before
deadline ; remain cool to the end
• Always question : what happens if we missed
a deadline?
Information
• The more information you know about
negotiating partner, the better your position
in the negotiation
• Know the real needs of your negotiating
partner, gather and analyze relevant
information
Negotiating styles
• Win at all costs ( soviet style)
• Win- win style
• Opposition in negotiations:
– Idea opposition
– Visceral opposition
Thank you

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  • 2. Decision Making Facing Uncertainty? • The only certain thing in life is Death
  • 3. Decision Making Facing Uncertainty? • Irreducible uncertainty leads to • Inevitable error leads to • Unavoidable injustice Jack Dowie& Ken Hammond
  • 4. Course Objectives After this training course, attendants will be able to: • Recognize the background factors that managers need to take into consideration in formulating their decisions • Understand the intuition/analysis approach to decision making • Understand interactive decision making
  • 5. Course Objectives • Understand the role of knowledge technology and value technology in decision technology in health related matters • Develop the logical process of decision analysis and analytical decision making • Plan and Oversee decision implementation
  • 6. Decision Making Decisions facing managers: • Simple decisions: only one possible course of action • Routine decisions: way to proceed set out in organization’s rules or protocols • Non-routine decisions: more complex with no existing policy to determine what to do
  • 7. Decision Making Strategic Decisions: • Corporate strategy what should we be doing • Business strategy: how to compete in the market as a provider • Functional strategy : how to operationalize corporate and business strategic decisions
  • 8. How Do You Make Decisions? Exercise
  • 9. How Do You Make Decisions? • Precedent • Abdicate responsibility • Pick what seems best • Cost and hassle manager!! • Move away but problems never go away • “paper over the cracks” approach • Discuss ? With whom
  • 10. Decision Making; Background • Organizational vision, mission, values and prevailing culture • Legal and statutory considerations • Economic and financial considerations • The market • The customer
  • 11. Decision Making; Background • Global considerations • Environment and ecology • Authority, resistance and change • Communication aspects • The use of IT in decision making • Emotions in decision making
  • 12. Vision, Mission, Values and Organizational Culture Vision: – the answer to the question “what do we want to become?” – The inspiration – The general direction – Guides in decision making
  • 13. Mission, Values and Culture • Mission: – describes what our business is and distinguishes the organization from others • Values: – Describes what the organization stands for and its ethical , moral and social values • Culture: – Describes the norms prevailing in the organization
  • 14. Legal and Statutory Considerations • Laws • Established practice • Regulatory bodies • Professional associations • Organizational protocols • Exercise: Review the documents provided and outline relevant regulations that you were not aware of
  • 15. Economic , Financial and Risk Considerations • Economy basics: – Inflation/recession cycles – Base rates – Currency markets • Financial statements: – Balance sheet – Income statement – Cash flow statement • Forecasts • Risk analysis
  • 16. Market Considerations • State of the market: market research • Market basics: – The law of supply and demand • Product life-cycle: – Growth – Maturity – Decline
  • 17. The Customer • External customer: – Needs – Wants – Financial abilities • Internal customer – Competence – willingness
  • 18. Global Considerations • Freedom of information • Drive for quality and standards • International competition • GATT • TRIPS • Ease of travel!!!
  • 19. Environmental Considerations • Protection of the environment • Safe waste disposal • Drive towards natural ingredients • Product safety • Work-force safety and rights • Customer safety and rights
  • 20. Authority, Resistance and Change • Leadership commitment • Anticipated resistance: how to deal with • Adapting to Change In today’s business environment the only constant is change.Successful organizations effectively manage change,continuously adapting their bureaucracies, strategies, systems , products , and cultures to survive the shocks and prosper from the forces that decimate the competition. Robert Waterman
  • 21. Communication Aspects • Communication is key to successful decision making • Managers as communicators: – Successful managers spend 70-80% of their time communicating • Channels of communication within the organization: – Formal – informal
  • 22. IT and decision making • Factual approach to decision making • Data collection, and validation • Data analysis • Information • The use of data bases • Internet resources
  • 23. Emotions and Decision Making • “When a man is prey to his emotions, he is not his own master,but lies at the mercy of fortune.” Spinoza. • It is human nature to make decisions based on emotion rather than fact. But nothing could be more illogical. Toshiba corporation.
  • 24. Decision Making and Emotions Make decisions with your heart, and what you will end up with is heart disease Harvey Mackay&William Marrow • “Emotions are magical transformations of the world” Sartre
  • 25. Decision Making and Emotions • Emotions distort Sartre • Emotions provide valuable information Nietzsche • Emotions have a cognitive component: two judgments:something good or bad about to happen+appropriate way to deal with Aristotle
  • 26. Decision Making and Emotions • If you ignore emotions in decision making you risk: – Missing out their informational value – Allowing them to distort our view of the situation, the problem, what matters, our options and our ability to implement decisions
  • 27. Emotions, the Rules: • Before making decisions ask yourself : – What are your emotions e.g. fear , anxiety – What are they about? – Are they appropriate? – What information the emotions are providing? – What the emotions imply we should do?
  • 29. Decision Making • Rationality: – Decisions are made in a consistent manner to maximize benefit ( utility) – Human beings are absolutely rational in their economic choices – Choice is made based on maximum benefit – Absolutely rational behavior is more predictable than irrational behavior
  • 30. Interactive Decision Making • Introduced by John von Neuman in the book The Theory of Games and Economic Behavior • Studies interactive decision making; what happens when agents with different goals interact, each making decisions on basis on what’s best for itself, while taking into account that the others are doing the same
  • 31. The Game Theory • Game is a scientific metaphor for a wide range of human interactions where outcome depends on interactive strategies of two or more persons with different motives • Provides a theory of economic and strategic behavior when people interact directly rather than through the market • Involved in economics, mathematics, strategy, psychology , behavioral and social sciences
  • 32. The Prisoners’ Dilemma • Invented by Tucker in 1950 as a classical example of interactive decision making • The game, set in one paper, has been the most influential one page in social sciences in 2nd half of the 20th century • The Game: refer to the exercise
  • 33. The Prisoners’ Dilemma The manager has asked Mohsen Dorgham and Mohamed Moharam to pay a field visit to the site of a new prospective project and do on site assessment for feasibility. Dorgham convinced Moharam that they can get the information over phone, cook the report and enjoy the days off. Reading the report, the manager suspected the plot, called them separately and faced each with his suspicions. He offered each the following deal: – If they both confess to report fabrication each will get 15 days salary cut – If one confesses and the other denies, the one who confesses will be pardoned while the other who denies will be fired – If both deny they will get 5 days salary cut each The offers are made to each of them separately, both are kept in separate rooms till they meet the director for further investigation Discuss their possible strategies
  • 34. The Prisoners’ Dilemma • Dominant Strategy: when each player in the game evaluates separately each strategy combinations and for each combination chooses from his own strategies the one that gives the best pay-off • Dominant strategy equilibrium: when each player in the game plays the dominant strategy,the combination of dominant strategies and corresponding payoffs constitute the dominant strategy equilibrium for the game
  • 35. The Prisoners’ Dilemma The Aftermath Individually rational action results in both persons being made worse off in terms of their own self-interested purposes
  • 36. Decision Making • Integrating intuition and analysis; – Not an either or situation – Decision making should be based on integrating intuition and analysis in decision making – Intuition is important in situations of great uncertainty and little precedent and when choosing among several plausible alternatives
  • 37. Decision Making Intuition Vs Analysis “ I believe in intuition and inspiration. At times I feel certain that I am right without knowing the reason. Imagination is more important than knowledge, because knowledge is limited while imagination embraces the entire world” Albert Einstein
  • 38. Decision Making Intuition • Rapid unconscious processing of data • Combined by simple averaging principle • Low consistency • Moderate accuracy but low potential for major errors Analysis • Slow conscious processing of data • Combined using more complex principles • High consistency • High accuracy, greater potential for major errors,more easily identifiable
  • 39. Decision Analysis (Decision Theory) • It is “the attempt to assess utilities and probabilities of outcome, in order to calculate the expected utility of decision options”. (Baron, 1988) • It involves: – First searching for options – Then evaluating them in terms of likelihood and utilities of consequences
  • 41. Knowledge, Value and Decision • To produce knowledge, elicit knowledge and evaluate knowledge claims we need a knowledge technology • To establish what values are held and elicit value judgments we need a Valuation technology • To make decisions we need a Decision technology • DT needs inputs from KT and VT
  • 42. Value Elements in Health Decision Making • Health versus non-health • Life expectancy versus health related quality of life • Components of HRQOL (morbidity, self- care,pain, discomfort,activities etc) • Time preference • Risk preference
  • 44. Decision Making;the Process The hats of decision making: • Creative thinking (green hat) • Critical thinking (black hat) • Information (white hat) • Emotions & Intuition ( red hat) • Process (blue hat)
  • 45. Critical Thinking • “ A process, the goal of which is to make reasonable decisions about what to believe and what to do” Ennis,1996 • Two common approaches to critical thinking: – The fallacies approach – The good reasoning approach
  • 46. Critical Thinking, the Fallacies Approach • Common fallacies: – Attacking the person rather than the relevant argument – Attacking something because it has been held by someone evil or stupid – Rash generalizations – Caricaturing opponent’s view making it more implausible than it really is
  • 47. The Fallacies Approach • Identifies fallacies i.e bad reasons for decisions • Provides no account of what makes a good decision • The major source of fallacious reasoning is vividness and emotional language
  • 48. Critical Thinking; the Good Reasoning Approach • Decisions based on the pros and cons for each option • Based on analysis of the characteristics of a good reason: – Acceptable (true reason) – Relevant to the conclusion – Strong (important)
  • 49. Critical Thinking • Apply critical thinking approaches to the following decision situations: – I advise all silent gall stones patients to have cholecystectomy because of the risk of serious complications – I can not believe that the board would accept the proposal of such an incompetent loser.
  • 50. Creative Thinking • The generation of thoughts, ideas, decisions and actions, often by novel and unexpected means • Common techniques include: – Brain storming – Lateral thinking – Win/win thinking
  • 51. Creative Thinking;Brain Storming • Stages: 1. State and discuss the problem 2. Restate the problem “ How to” 3. Write down problem statement 4. Warm up session 5. Brainstorm, record suggestions on flip chart 6. Finish with wildest ideas
  • 52. Brain Storming • Guidelines for brainstorming: – Suspend judgment – Freewheel – Value quantity – Cross-fertilize • Brainstorming helps to generate options
  • 53. Brain Storming;Exercise • You want to attend Enrique Iglesias concert but you don’t have the 200 pounds you need to buy the cheapest ticket. Use brainstorming technique to generate options
  • 54. Creative Thinking; Lateral Thinking • A special type of creative thinking which involves “ pattern switching within a patterning system” ( de Bono,1982) • Lateral thinking allows getting a fresh perspective • Lateral thinking helps reframe the problem and coming up with new options
  • 55. Lateral Thinking; Exercise • Your son doesn’t want to join you on your leave by the seaside unless you take his friend with you.Your wife insists he should join you for a family break. Your place by the seaside doesn’t have an extra space for guests. Use lateral thinking to provide a fresh perspective into your dilemma
  • 56. Creative Thinking; Win/Win Thinking • Win/win means agreements or solutions that are mutually beneficial, mutually satisfying Steven Covey,1992 • Win/win thinking helps with generation of reasons
  • 57. Win/Win Thinking;Exercise • Apply win/win thinking technique to generate reasons in the previous example • The Jerusalem Dilemma!!!
  • 58. Creative and Critical Thinking • Creative thinking covers limitations of critical thinking by generation of reasons, reframing problems and generating options • Critical thinking skills are needed to evaluate all options generated by different creative thinking techniques
  • 60. Decision Making Process: The Progress Model Tim LeBon & David Arnaud
  • 61. 1-Understanding The Situation (finding the problem)and the Decision – Express situation in headlines outlining decision needed and options already there – Use critical thinking to evaluate statements – Identify your emotions and understand what they tell you – Rephrase the problem to express your current understanding
  • 62. 2-Understanding What Matters – Objectives and values you like to satisfy by the decision – Use creative thinking to reveal other things that really matter – Think of others who might be involved – Think long term – Rate things from 5 to 0
  • 63. 3-Searching for Options: • Review options identified in stage1 • Review what really matters in stage 2 • Brainstorm possible solutions • Write down possible decisions for evaluation
  • 64. 4-Evaluation of Options Objective Strength Option 1 Option 2 1 2 3 4
  • 65. 4-Evaluation of Options The Weight and Score • For every objective allocate a weight out of 10 to reflect its importance to you • For every option give a score from 1 to 3 reflecting how much it satisfies your objectives • Develop a decision matrix • Multiply the weight by score to get a final score for each option
  • 66. 5-Implementing Decision • Resources • Action plan • Monitoring and evaluation • Corrective action • Decision review and evaluation
  • 67. Group Decision Making • Brain Storming • The Nominal Group Technique • The Delphi Technique
  • 68. Group Decision Making • Advantages: – More alternatives – Involve people in implementation – Reduce uncertainty • Disadvantages: – Time – Group thinking – Dispersed accountability
  • 69. Quantitative Decision-Making Tools • Decision trees • Payback analysis • Simulations
  • 70. Decision Making; Golden Rules • Make decisions!!! • Do your homework but avoid analysis paralysis • Listen to your heart (intuition!!) • Don’t waste time reviving or revisiting what would have been Bill Marriot
  • 71. Decision Making; End of the Road Map • When a crisis forces choosing among alternatives, most people will chose the worst possible one. Rudin’s Law • Life is full of lousy options General P.Kelly
  • 72. Negotiation Skills • We are constantly negotiating with others in life • The art of negotiation: – Power – Time – Information
  • 73. Power • The ability to get things done • Whenever you expand your options , you have more power!! • Power: – Power of competition – Power of legitimacy – Power of investment – Power of persistence
  • 74. Power • Power: – Power of expertise – Power of precedent – Power of risk taking – Power of knowing the needs – Power of reward and punishment
  • 75. Time • Most concessions are made just before deadline ; remain cool to the end • Always question : what happens if we missed a deadline?
  • 76. Information • The more information you know about negotiating partner, the better your position in the negotiation • Know the real needs of your negotiating partner, gather and analyze relevant information
  • 77. Negotiating styles • Win at all costs ( soviet style) • Win- win style • Opposition in negotiations: – Idea opposition – Visceral opposition