Chap10

11
Chapter 10Chapter 10
Elections andElections and
CampaignsCampaigns

22Copyright © 2013 CengageCopyright © 2013 Cengage
 WHO GOVERNS?WHO GOVERNS?
1.1. How do American electionsHow do American elections
determine the kind of people whodetermine the kind of people who
govern us?govern us?
2.2. What matters most in decidingWhat matters most in deciding
who wins presidential andwho wins presidential and
congressional elections?congressional elections?
 TO WHAT ENDS?TO WHAT ENDS?
1.1. Do elections make a real differenceDo elections make a real difference
in what laws get passed?in what laws get passed?

44
Campaigns TodayCampaigns Today
 Campaign tasksCampaign tasks
performed byperformed by
• Media consultantsMedia consultants
• Direct mail firmsDirect mail firms
• Polling firmsPolling firms
• Political technology firmsPolitical technology firms
Copyright © 2013 CengageCopyright © 2013 Cengage

Source: Federal Election Commission, 2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance Summary.

Source: Adapted from Federal Election Commission summary reports, January 2009 and May 2009. Dollar
figures rounded. Inflation adjustment keyed to consumer price index 1976–2008, 3.74 (i.e., assumes
that what cost $1.00 in 1976 cost $3.74 in 2008).

77
Figure 10.1 Presidential Campaigns,Figure 10.1 Presidential Campaigns,
Spending on Media, 2008Spending on Media, 2008
Source: Federal Election Commission, summary reports, May 2009. Figures rounded.Source: Federal Election Commission, summary reports, May 2009. Figures rounded.

88
 Better or Worse?Better or Worse?
• Extensive PollingExtensive Polling
• ““High-Tech Canvassing”High-Tech Canvassing”
• Campaign Spending and Fund RaisingCampaign Spending and Fund Raising

99
 Here And AbroadHere And Abroad
• In the U.S., elections have two crucialIn the U.S., elections have two crucial
phases: getting nominated and gettingphases: getting nominated and getting
elected. They both require anelected. They both require an individualindividual
effort on the part of the candidate.effort on the part of the candidate.
• In most of Europe, theIn most of Europe, the political partypolitical party
decides who will be allowed to run anddecides who will be allowed to run and
puts the candidate’s name on the ballot.puts the candidate’s name on the ballot.

1010
Presidential Versus CongressionalPresidential Versus Congressional
CampaignsCampaigns
Presidential RacePresidential Race
 More CompetitiveMore Competitive
• Winner usually gets less thanWinner usually gets less than
55% of the vote55% of the vote
 Larger Voter TurnoutLarger Voter Turnout
 Must Rely On The MassMust Rely On The Mass
Media To Reach VotersMedia To Reach Voters
 Incumbent PresidentsIncumbent Presidents
Are Often HeldAre Often Held
Responsible ForResponsible For
Whatever Has GoneWhatever Has Gone
WrongWrong
Congressional RaceCongressional Race
 Less CompetitiveLess Competitive
• Winner usually gets over 60Winner usually gets over 60
% of the vote% of the vote
 Smaller Voter TurnoutSmaller Voter Turnout
 Closer Contact WithCloser Contact With
The District’s VotersThe District’s Voters
 Even IncumbentEven Incumbent
Congressmen Can “RunCongressmen Can “Run
Against Washington”Against Washington”

1111
Presidential CampaignsPresidential Campaigns
Running for PresidentRunning for President
• Getting “Mentioned”Getting “Mentioned”
• MoneyMoney
• OrganizationOrganization
• Strategy and ThemesStrategy and Themes
Lisa Murkowski, a write-in
candidate, won a Senate
seat in Alaska, the first
person to do this in any
state since 1954. She
defeated the Republican
candidate.
g36/g36/ZUMA Press/Newscom

Political campaigns are hard
work, even when you get to
fly on the vice president’s
airplane
Tomas Muscionico/Contact Press Images
Barack Obama campaigned on the
slogan “Change We Can Believe In.”
Stephen Brashear/Getty Images

1313
Getting Elected To CongressGetting Elected To Congress
 The Problems Of MalapportionmentThe Problems Of Malapportionment
and Gerrymanderingand Gerrymandering
 Winning The PrimaryWinning The Primary
 Staying In OfficeStaying In Office

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census.Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census.

1515
Two Kinds Of Campaign IssuesTwo Kinds Of Campaign Issues
 Position IssuesPosition Issues
• The rival candidates have opposingThe rival candidates have opposing
views and the issue divides the voters.views and the issue divides the voters.
 Valence IssuesValence Issues
• The voters are not divided on anThe voters are not divided on an
important issue and examine whether aimportant issue and examine whether a
candidate fully supports their view.candidate fully supports their view.

1616
Television and DebatesTelevision and Debates
 TelevisionTelevision
• Paid Advertisements/CommercialsPaid Advertisements/Commercials
• Making the Nightly NewscastsMaking the Nightly Newscasts
 DebatesDebates
• What effects do they have on elections?What effects do they have on elections?
• What risks are involved in televisedWhat risks are involved in televised
debates?debates?

1818
Politically Speaking:Politically Speaking:
Clothespin VoteClothespin Vote
The vote cast by a person who does not likeThe vote cast by a person who does not like
either candidate and so votes for the lesseither candidate and so votes for the less
objectionable of the two, putting aobjectionable of the two, putting a
clothespin over his or her nose to keep outclothespin over his or her nose to keep out
the unpleasant stench.the unpleasant stench.

1919
In the 1888 presidential campaign,In the 1888 presidential campaign,
supporters of Benjamin Harrisonsupporters of Benjamin Harrison
rolled a huge ball covered withrolled a huge ball covered with
campaign slogans across thecampaign slogans across the
country. The gimmick, first used incountry. The gimmick, first used in
1840, gave rise to the phrase “keep1840, gave rise to the phrase “keep
the ball rolling.”the ball rolling.”
Alaska Governor SarahAlaska Governor Sarah
Palin debates Senator JoePalin debates Senator Joe
Biden during the 2008Biden during the 2008
campaign.campaign.
Library of Congress
Rick Wiking, Pool, File/AP Photo

2020
MoneyMoney
 The Sources of Campaign MoneyThe Sources of Campaign Money
 Campaign Finance RulesCampaign Finance Rules
 A Second Campaign Finance LawA Second Campaign Finance Law
 New Sources of MoneyNew Sources of Money
 Money and WinningMoney and Winning

2121
Candidates first madeCandidates first made
phonographic recordings ofphonographic recordings of
their speeches in 1908.their speeches in 1908.
Warren G. Harding isWarren G. Harding is
shown here recording ashown here recording a
speech during the 1920speech during the 1920
campaign.campaign.
John F. Kennedy and RichardJohn F. Kennedy and Richard
Nixon debate during theNixon debate during the
1960 presidential campaign.1960 presidential campaign.
Bettmann/CORBIS
Paul Schutzer/ Time Life Pictures/
Getty Images

2323
Figure 10.2 Growth of PACsFigure 10.2 Growth of PACs
1979–20101979–2010
Source: Federal Election Commission.

Source: ABC News/Politics 2010 National Exit Poll, November 2, 2010, reporting data on more than 17,000
respondents.

2626
Source: Center for Responsive Politics, based on FEC data.

2828
The figures for 1980, 1984, 1988, and 1996 fail to add up to 100 percent because of missing
data.

2929
What Decides the Election?What Decides the Election?
 PartyParty
 Issues, Especially the EconomyIssues, Especially the Economy
• Prospective votingProspective voting
• Retrospective votingRetrospective voting
 The CampaignThe Campaign
 Finding a Winning CoalitionFinding a Winning Coalition

3030
Figure 10.3 The Economy and Vote forFigure 10.3 The Economy and Vote for
President, 1948–2008President, 1948–2008
Notes: (1) Each dot represents a
presidential election, showing the
popular vote received by the
incumbent president’s party. (2)
1992 data do not include votes
for independent candidate H.
Ross Perot. (3) 2004 value on
RDI is projection from data
available in December 2004.
Source: From American Public Opinion, 5th ed.,
by Robert S. Erikson and Kent L. Tedin.
Copyright © 1995 by Addison-Wesley
Educational
Publishers, Inc. Reprinted by permission of
Pearson Education, Inc. 2008 update from
Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department
of Commerce.

Union members wereUnion members were
once heavilyonce heavily
Democratic, but sinceDemocratic, but since
Ronald Reagan beganRonald Reagan began
winning white unionwinning white union
votes in 1980, thesevotes in 1980, these
votes have been up forvotes have been up for
grabs.grabs.
At a public meeting, Samuel JosephAt a public meeting, Samuel Joseph
Wurzelbacher challenged Barack ObamaWurzelbacher challenged Barack Obama
on his tax plan and quickly becameon his tax plan and quickly became
known as “Joe the Plumber.”known as “Joe the Plumber.”
AP Images
Al Goldis/ AP Photo

3232
a
1968 election had three major
candidates (Humphrey, Nixon,
and Wallace).
b
Jewish vote estimated from
various sources; since the
number of Jewish persons
interviewed often is less than
100, the error in this figure, as
well as that for nonwhites, may
be large.
c
candidates (Carter, Reagan, and
Anderson).
d
candidates (Clinton, Bush, and
Perot).
e
For 1980–1992, refers to age
60 and over.
f
For 1988, white Protestants
only.
g
For 1996, refers to age 45 and
over.
Sources: For 1964–1976: Gallup poll data, as tabulated in
Jeane J. Kirkpatrick, “Changing Patterns of Electoral
Competition,” in The New American Political System, ed.
Anthony King (Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise
Institute, 1978), 254–256. For 1980–1992: Data from New
York Times/CBS News exit polls. For 1996: Congressional
Quarterly Weekly Report, 1997, p. 188. For 2000: Exit polls
supplied by ABC News. For 2004 and 2008: CNN exit polls.

3333
Figure 10.4 Partisan Division of theFigure 10.4 Partisan Division of the
Presidential Vote, 1856–2008Presidential Vote, 1856–2008
Sources: Information for 1856–1988, updated from Historical Data Archive, Inter-University Consortium for
Political Research, as reported in William H. Flanigan and Nancy H. Zingale, Political Behavior of the American
Electorate, 3rd ed., 32. For 1992: World Almanac and Book of Facts 1994, 73.

3434
M E M O R A N D U MM E M O R A N D U M
To:To: Arjun Bruno, National Party ChairmanArjun Bruno, National Party Chairman
From:From: Arlene Marcus, State Party ChairwomanArlene Marcus, State Party Chairwoman
Subject:Subject: Supporting a National PrimarySupporting a National Primary
In the past few election cycles, our state’s role in theIn the past few election cycles, our state’s role in the
party nomination for president virtually hasparty nomination for president virtually has
disappeared with a May primary date. Several statesdisappeared with a May primary date. Several states
have leapfrogged ahead of us, and party leaders havehave leapfrogged ahead of us, and party leaders have
indicated that they do not want any more states toindicated that they do not want any more states to
move up their primary date. The national party needsmove up their primary date. The national party needs
to find a way to ensure that all states, large andto find a way to ensure that all states, large and
small, have a real voice in nominating a presidentialsmall, have a real voice in nominating a presidential
candidate.candidate.
WHAT WOULD YOU DO?WHAT WOULD YOU DO?

3535
Arguments for:Arguments for:
1. A single national primary permits equal participation by all1. A single national primary permits equal participation by all
states and presents a fair compromise with the increasedstates and presents a fair compromise with the increased
number of delegates that larger states send to the nationalnumber of delegates that larger states send to the national
conventions, much like the compromises during the originalconventions, much like the compromises during the original
constitutional debates.constitutional debates.
2. The nominating process needs to be less costly, particularly2. The nominating process needs to be less costly, particularly
when presidential candidates realistically need to raisewhen presidential candidates realistically need to raise
$100 million a year before the general election to be$100 million a year before the general election to be
competitive for the nomination. Holding all primaries andcompetitive for the nomination. Holding all primaries and
caucuses on a single day will reduce overall electioncaucuses on a single day will reduce overall election
expenses significantly.expenses significantly.
3. If the American electorate knows presidential nominations3. If the American electorate knows presidential nominations
will be decided by each party on one day, then they will bewill be decided by each party on one day, then they will be
more likely to vote, a significant factor for elections inmore likely to vote, a significant factor for elections in
which historically, fewer than 20 percent of eligible voterswhich historically, fewer than 20 percent of eligible voters
typically participate.typically participate.

3636
Arguments against:Arguments against:
1. Each state decides in conjunction with the national party1. Each state decides in conjunction with the national party
when its primary or caucus will take place, and the federalwhen its primary or caucus will take place, and the federal
system of government designed by the Framers did notsystem of government designed by the Framers did not
guarantee that all states would be treated equally at allguarantee that all states would be treated equally at all
times.times.
2. A national primary would favor candidates with high name2. A national primary would favor candidates with high name
recognition and funding to further that recognition andrecognition and funding to further that recognition and
would severely disadvantage lesser known candidateswould severely disadvantage lesser known candidates
within the party.within the party.
3. Even though the general election takes place on one day,3. Even though the general election takes place on one day,
voter turnout in the United States still is lower than invoter turnout in the United States still is lower than in
other advanced industrialized democracies, which suggestsother advanced industrialized democracies, which suggests
that other factors influence who participates.that other factors influence who participates.

3737
Your decision:Your decision:
Support a National Primary?Support a National Primary?
Oppose a National Primary?Oppose a National Primary?

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