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Accenture - Bubble over Barcelona 2013 MWC - Mobility Trends
- 1. Capturing the value of NOW!
Mobile World Congress 2013
Barcelona | 25-28 February
Mobility Trends
Barcelona, February 2013
Lars Kamp
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All Rights Reserved. Accenture, its logo, and High performance. Delivered. are trademarks of Accenture
- 6. Evolution of computing devices.
~1 major form factor innovation every decade.
Mainframe
Mini
Computing
Client /
Server
Desktop
Internet
Cloud &
Mobile
Connected
Products ?
IBM 370 DEC VT180 IBM AT PC IBM ThinkPad iPhone & iPad Intelligent
Devices
?
Data Business Process Web Apps Mobile Apps Apps, Open
Management Logic Apps Automation Apps APIs & big
Apps data
1960’s 1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000’s 2010’s 2020’s
Computing
Institutional computing Mass market Multi-device computing
Era
One device for many users One device for one user Many devices for one user
Images: Apple.com, Sony.com, IBM.com
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 6
- 7. The 4 pillars of computing.
Processing Network
$ / GFLOP*, 1961-2015 CAGR, 1961-2015 $ / Mbps*, 1998-2015 CAGR, 1998-2015
-34% -36%
Charts in Logarithmic Scale
1961 1981 2001 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015
Storage Memory
$ / GB*, 1980-2015 CAGR, 1980-2015 $ / MB*, 1970-2015 CAGR, 1970-2015
-39% -37%
1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 1970 1985 2000 2015
Source: DrPeering.net, Matthew Komorowski, John McCallum
Complied and analyzed by Accenture
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 7
- 8. “Moore’s Law” (1965): Processing
power doubling every ~18 months.
Cramming more components onto
integrated circuits.
With unit cost falling as the number of components
per circuit rises, by 1975 economics may dictate
squeezing as many as 65,000 components on a
single silicon chip
By Gordon E. Moore
Director, Research and Development Laboratories, Fairchild
Semiconductor division of Fairchilde Camera and Instrument Corp.
Electronics, Volume 38, Number 8, April 19, 1965
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 8
- 9. Moore’s Law applied at Intel: Ever
smaller, faster chips, at less cost.
Evolution of Intel’s Processors,1971-2012
4004 286 Pentium Pentium Core i7
M
1971 1982 1993 2002 2012
Clock Speed 108 KHz 6 MHz 66 MHz 1.7 GHz 3.7 GHz
# of Transistors 2,300 134,000 3,100,000 55,000,000 995,000,000
~$ Price $60 $125 $150 $275 $320
MIPS 0.07 0.9 112 7,400 128,300
Price / MIPS $857 $138 $1.3 $.04 $.002
Source: Intel, Images: anandtech.com, MIPS: Million Instructions per Second.
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 9
- 10. Moore’s Law applied at Apple: Ever
smaller, faster chips, at less cost.
Evolution of Apple’s Processors, 2010-2012
A4 A5 A5X A6 A6X
March March March September October
2010 2011 2012 2012 2012
Chip Cortex-A8 Cortex-A9 Cortex-A9 SWIFT SWIFT
DMIPS/MHz 2.0 2.5 2.5 3.5* 3.5*
Clock Speed 1GHz 1GHz 1GHz 1.3GHz 1.4GHz
DMIPS/Core 2,000 2,500 2,500 4,550 4,900
Total Cores 1 2 2 2 2
Total DMIPS 2,000 5,000 5,000 9,100 9,800
Source: ARM Company Website, Accenture analyisis.
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 10
- 11. US Asset Prices
Normalized, 2005 = 100
105
Computers and Peripheral Equipment
104
103
Transportation
Other Equipment
102 Equipment
Industrial Equipment
101
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: BEA, Compiled and analyzed by Accenture
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 11
- 12. Enterprise IT Consumption
Annual Investment Nominal Annual
per Employee ($) Investment ($B)
$3,500 $350
$3,000 $300
$2,500 $250
$2,000 $200
$1,500 $150
$1,000 $100
$500 $50
$0 $0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: BEA, Compiled and analyzed by Accenture
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 12
12
- 13. Software-to-hardware ratio
US IT Investment
Software-to-Hardware Ratio, 1969-2011
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
1970 1980 1990 2000 2011
Source: BEA, Compiled and analyzed by Accenture
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 13
- 14. Software-to-hardware ratio
US IT Investment
Software-to-Hardware Ratio, 1969-2011
4
“Wintel” “XaaS”
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
1970 1980 1990 2000 2011
Source: BEA, Compiled and analyzed by Accenture
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 14
- 16. $B investments into the cloud.
Amazon Google
Morrow, OR USA The Dalles, OR USA
Apple Microsoft
Maiden, NC USA Dublin, Ireland
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. Images: datacenterknowledge.com, cleantechnica.com 16
- 17. Cloud, mobile driving up PP&E spend…
Amazon PP&E Spend CAGR Google PP&E Spend CAGR
USD Millions, per year: ’09 -’12 ‘09-’12 USD Millions, per year: ’09 -’12 ‘09-’12
$3,735 116% $4,018
$3,438 $3,273
60%
$1,811
$979
$810
$373
2009 2010 2011 2012 2009 2010 2011 2012
Apple PP&E Spend Microsoft PP&E Spend
USD Millions, per year: ’09 -’12 USD Millions, per year: ’09 -’12
$8,295 $3,119
94%
$2,355 $2,305
$1,977 -10%
$4,260
$2,005
$1,144
2009 2010 2011 2012 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Company 10Ks, Compiled and analyzed by Accenture
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 17
- 18. …followed by M&A.
Amazon M&A Spend CAGR Google M&A Spend CAGR
USD Millions, per year: ’09 -’12 ‘09-’12 USD Millions, per year: ’09 -’12 ‘09-’12
$745 165%
$705 $10,568 361%
$352
$1,900
$40 $1,067
$108
2009 2010 2011 2012 2009 2010 2011 2012
Apple M&A Spend Microsoft M&A Spend
USD Millions, per year: ’09 -’12 USD Millions, per year: ’09 -’12
$638
$10,112
127%
$350
$244
$868
$0 $245 $71
2009 2010 2011 2012 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Company 10Ks, Compiled and analyzed by Accenture
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 18
- 19. 19
Cloud Dev
Cloud Services Dev
App Dev
Marketplace
Storage
Search
Mapping
Comms
Media
Semi IP
H/W Design
OS
Browser
(3rd Py Device)
Apps
Platforms Device
Logical stack.
(3rd Py Device)
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved.
Browser
Apps
TV Device
Phone
Tablet
PC
- 20. Positioning at start of 2008.
Platforms Device Cloud Services Dev
(3rd Py Device)
(3rd Py Device)
Marketplace
H/W Design
Cloud Dev
TV Device
Mapping
Browser
Browser
App Dev
Storage
Comms
Semi IP
Search
Phone
Tablet
Media
Apps
Apps
OS
PC
Source:: Corporate websites. Compiled and analyzed by Accenture
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 20
- 21. Positioning at start of 2010.
Platforms Device Cloud Services Dev
(3rd Py Device)
(3rd Py Device)
Marketplace
H/W Design
Cloud Dev
TV Device
Mapping
Browser
Browser
App Dev
Storage
Comms
Semi IP
Search
Phone
Tablet
Media
Apps
Apps
OS
PC
Source:: Corporate websites. Compiled and analyzed by Accenture.
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 21
- 22. Today: Vertical integration.
Platforms Device Cloud Services Dev
(3rd Py Device)
(3rd Py Device)
Marketplace
H/W Design
Cloud Dev
TV Device
Mapping
Browser
Browser
App Dev
Storage
Comms
Semi IP
Search
Phone
Tablet
Media
Apps
Apps
OS
PC
Source:: Corporate websites. Compiled and analyzed by Accenture.
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 22
- 23. Cloud-to-mobile instrumentation.
Cloud Device
Yesterday
HTTP
(custom libraries)
Today
SDKs, APIs
Open Source
Images: Samsung, Accenture analysis.
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 23
- 25. Commerce w/o a single line of code.
Urban Airship Pass Builder for Apple Passbook
Images: Urban Airship.
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 25
- 27. Cloud efficiency: development
Users to
Users Engineers Engineers
1,139M ~11.5K 98K
901M ~900 1M
90M 6 15M
Source: Corporate websites, Accenture estimates. Directional estimates for mid 2012.
Copyright © 2013 Accenture All rights reserved. 27
- 28. Amazon AWS S3 traffic.
S3 Pricing vs. Objects Stored
2007-2012, USD Millions
Amazon S3 pricing Number of objects in S3
($/GB/Month) (Billions)
$0.16 1,400
$0.15 12.3B
$0.15 1,200
$0.14
1,000
$0.13
800
$0.12
600
$0.11
400
$0.10
$0.09 200
$0.09
14.0B
$0.08 0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Amazon AWS Blog, Compiled and analyzed by Accenture
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 28
- 29. Amazon AWS revenue.
Amazon “Other” Revenue, Includes AWS
2006-2012, USD Millions
$2,500 2351
DB as a
$2,000 Service
$1,500 1431
Platform as a
Service
$1,000
827
550
$500
449
264 327 Storage as a
Service
Computing as a
$0 Service
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Amazon 10K, Compiled and analyzed by Accenture; “Other” includes AWS
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 29
- 31. The efficiency of Amazon’s stack.
Revenue ($B) Employees (K) Annual Revenue
TTM 2013 Dec 2012 per Employee
60 52 ~$1,200K
50 167 ~$300K
Source: SEC Filings, Accenture analysis. All numbers are rounded.
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 31
- 33. Android
History of Android
July 2005 Oct 2008 Apr 2009
Android acquired Android Market Android
by Google announced. SDK
“G1” released
2003 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
… C D E F G H I J …
Sept 2003 Nov 2007 April Sept Oct May Dec Mar Oct H1
Android OHA founded. 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012
incorporated. “Android” Cupcake Donut Éclair FroYo GiBr HoCo IC JB
platform v1.5 v1.6 v2.0 v2.2 v2.3 v3.0 v4.0 V4.1
“Astro” & “Bender” unveiled. V4.2
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 33
- 34. …with rapid ecosystem adoption.
One OEM and SemiCo at a time
Android
Release E F G H I J K
Oct 2009 May 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Oct 2011 H1 2012 Jan 2013
Éclair FroYo GiBr HoCo IceCrm JB KLP
v2.0 v2.2 v2.3 v3.0 v4.0 V4.1/V4.2 V5.0
“Hero”
Device
HTC Samsung Motorola HTC Samsung Motorola Samsung Asus
Dream Behold II Droid Nexus One Nexus S Xoom Galaxy Nexus Nexus 7
Chip
Qualcomm Qualcomm TI OMAP Qualcomm Intrinsity NVIDIA TI OMAP NVIDIA
MSM7201A MSM7201A 3430 QSD8250 S5PC110 Tegra 2 250 4460 Tegra 3
528MHz 528MHz 600 MHz 998MHz 1,000MH 1,000MHz 1,200MHz 1,500MHz
z
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 34
- 35. Android code base.
From 4.1M to 15.2 lines of code in 3 years
25
20
15
Lines of Code
10
5
Comments
Blanks
0
Jan '09 Jul '09 Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12
Source: Ohloh.net, Accenture analysis
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 35
- 36. … activating ~1.65M devices per day.
1650
1500
1420
1300
1100
1000
900
880
870
850
850
730
700
675
650
625
600
550
500
400
375
350
325
300
Source: Google, estimates. Compiled an analyzed by Accenture.
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 36
- 37. Global Internet Traffic, 2008 - 2012
Desktop vs. Mobile
CAGR
’08 Q4-’12 Q4
100%
1% Mobile 12% 112%
95%
90%
99% Desktop 88% -3%
85%
80%
75%
2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4
Source: StatCounter; Compiled and analyzed by Accenture
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 37
- 38. India Internet Traffic, 2008 – 2012
Desktop vs. Mobile
100% 98%
90%
80%
CAGR
70% ’08Q4-’12Q4
60%
53% Mobile 125%
50%
40%
47% Desktop -17%
30%
20%
10%
2%
0%
2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4
Source: StatCounter; Compiled and analyzed by Accenture
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 38
- 39. Android running on more than “just”
smartphones and tablets.
HTC Dream Favi Pico Samsung Lenovo K91 Panasonic
Mobile Phone Projector Refrigerator Smart TV Rice Cooker
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Samsung Parrot Asteroid Sony Galaxy
Galaxy Tab Car Stereo SmartWatch Camera
Images: android.com, samsung.com, parrot.com, favientertainment.com, touchrevolution.com, sony.com, htc.com, CES.com,
The Android robot is reproduced or modified from work created and shared by Google and used according to terms described in the Creative
Commons 3.0 Attribution License.
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 39
- 40. Cloud-to-mobile delivered.
“The Kindle is a service, not a device. ‘Amazon’s iTunes’ is made to
acquire customers and build up an ecosystem. We want to make money
when customers use our device, not when they buy it.”
Jeff Bezos, Amazon CEO
November 2011
Cost to build: $210
Selling Price: $199
Source: iSuppli
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 40
- 41. Amazon digital vs. physical sales.
Amazon Press Event
September 2012
Amazon Kindle Kindle Fire
released released
Nov. 2007 Nov. 2011
Source: The Verge, Amazon Press Event
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 41
- 42. Kindle #1 in Terms of Growth in 2013
Growth in Tablet Share Post Holiday Season
%, January 2013
Kindle Fire 3.03%
Samsung Galaxy 1.38%
Google Nexus 0.92%
Microsoft Surface 0.17%
-0.02% BlackBerry Playbook
-7.14% iPad
-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4%
Source: techfever.net, Compiled and analyzed by Accenture
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 42
- 43. Amazon vs. NASDAQ Composite
1 year 2012 - 2013
150 Amazon 144
140
130
120
110
NASDAQ 117
100 Composite
90
80
1/3/2012 1/3/2013
Source: finance.google.com, Compiled and analyzed by Accenture
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 43
- 44. Amazon vs. NASDAQ Composite
2 years 2011 - 2013
150
Amazon 138
140
130
120
110
100
NASDAQ 108
Composite
90
80
1/3/2011 1/3/2012 1/3/2013
Source: finance.google.com, Compiled and analyzed by Accenture
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 44
- 45. Amazon vs. NASDAQ Composite
5 years 2008 - 2013
290 Amazon 271
240
190
140
90 NASDAQ 119
Composite
40
1/3/2008 1/3/2009 1/3/2010 1/3/2011 1/3/2012 1/3/2013
Source: finance.google.com, Compiled and analyzed by Accenture
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 45
- 47. “User-to-device” ratio.
1 Device, 4 Users 1 User, 4 Devices
Source: Images: press.xbox360.com, screenshot of Apple iOS6 “Bluetooth” screen .
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 47
- 48. Images: 02/15/2013 screenshot of store.apple.com/us/browse/home/shop_ipad/ipad_accessories/app_enabled
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 48
- 49. Interface and sensor technology.
Interface Trends Sensor Trends
Wired
Proprietary
USB Mini-HDMI Audio Port Sensor Component Cost
Connectors Legend: 2015 2011
2011-2015, USD
$1.80
$1.50
Wireless
-33% $1.20 $1.25
$1.00 -33%
-44%
-17%
NFC Bluetooth Wi-Fi ANT+ -15%
$1.20
$0.85 $1.00 $1.00
$0.70
Temp Acceler- Camera Mic GPS
Thin Air
ometer
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 49
- 50. Connected product components.
UI & Cloud-to- Big Data/
Hardware OS
Applications device Metering
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 50
- 51. Radically different lifecycles.
UI & Cloud-to- Big Data/
Hardware OS
Applications device Metering
1-2 6-12 2-6 4-12 4-12
years months months weeks weeks
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 51
- 52. The Nest Thermostat.
UI & Big Data/
Hardware OS Cloud Service
Applications Metering
Images: Nest.com/about, aws.amazon.com
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 52
- 54. Highly complex product lifecycle.
1.1.3
1.0.1
2.1.0
3.0.0
1.0.1
1.1.0
1.1.1
2.1.3
3.0.0
3.0.1
2.0
2.0
Mobile
App
INTERNAL
1.1.1
1.1.2
1.1.3
2.1.3
3.0.1
3.0.2
3.0.3
3.0.4
3.0.5
1.01
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.2
2.0
2.1
3.0
Firm-
1
ware
Diamond 1.10 Diamond 1.12 Display 2.6
Hard-
ware
Android 4.0 4.1 4.2
release
EXTERNAL
iOS 5 5.0.1 5.1 5.1.1 6
release
3rd Party API
releases
Q4’11 Q1’12 Q2’12 Q3’12 Q4’12
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved.
54
- 55. 3rd Party APIs
Nike+ Fuelband iOS app launch sequence
1
2
3
4
1 Third-party app crash tracking API
2 Nike+ user metric tracking API
3 Nike.com app content API
4 Youtube video content
Images: youtube.com, nike.com, crittercism.com
55
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved.
- 56. Pervasiveness of APIs.
API Calls Found in the 2012 Top 10 iOS Apps (Free, Paid, Top Grossing)
CRM/
Analytics Debugging Ad networks Cloud Social SDK Other
notifications
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 56
- 59. eBay’s evolution
Then… Now… Tomorrow
eBay Website eBay & PayPal Apps X.Commerce
Platform
X.Commerce Platform
From Internet, To mobile and To Platform-as-a-
Auction apps Service
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 59
- 60. In 2012…
Mobile commerce volume grew more than 120% to $13B to
account for 19% of all of eBay’s Marketplaces revenue
eBay’s suite of mobile applications attracted 4M new users with a revenue
per user of $325K
eBay celebrated their 100 millionth app downloaded in September
eBay’s mobile apps were available in 190 countries in 8 languages
The number of dollars spent every second through mobile purchases was
$275 in July
The number of new listings added via eBay mobile per week was 1.9M
Source: eBay SEC Filings and earnings calls; GMV: Gross Merchandise Value; TPV: Total Payment Volume
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 60
- 61. PayPal
In 2012…
PayPal processed $14B in mobile transactions, exceeding their
growth expectations by $4B and growing 250% since 2011
PayPal processed 692 mobile transactions between October and
December with 5,223 payments happening every minute
PayPal grew to have 123M active accounts. More accounts were accep-ted
in the last three months of FY12 than an entire quarter in the past 8 years
PayPal signed a deal with Discover that will enable 7M brick and mortar stores in the
US to accept PayPal as a form of payment in 2013
Source: eBay SEC Filings and earnings calls,
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 61
- 62. eBay restructuring for mobile.
Anti-fraud Barcode-scanning Mobile, location Mobile, social PayPal SDK
January 2008 mobile app app app July 2012
June 2010 April 2011 April 2012
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Payment technology Mobile app developer Mobile payments Mobile payments
December 2008 December 2010 April 2011 July 2011
Source: Crunchbase, Compiled an analyzed by Accenture
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 62
- 63. Platform model.
From point-to-point … to a reusable model through
integration… exposure of APIs
Merchants Capabilities Merchants Capabilities
…
…
…
…
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 63
- 64. Growth driven by mobile.
“Mobile continues to rewrite the commerce playbook, and we continue to
be a mobile commerce and payment leader.”
– John Donahoe, eBay, CEO, January 2013
eBay Marketplaces GMV PayPal TPV
USD Billions, per year: ’09 -’12 CAGR USD Billions, per year: ’09 - ‘12 CAGR
’09 -’12 ’09 -’12
$48 $54 $60 $68 = 100% 12% $72 $92 $119 $145 = 100% 26%
1 2 5 0 1 4 14 Mobile
13 Mobile 165% 312%
48 52 71 91 115
55 131 Desktop 22%
55 Desktop 5%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mobile Share Mobile Share
1.4% 4% 8% 19% >1% >1% 3% 10%
of GMV of TPV
Source: eBay SEC Filings and earnings calls, Accenture analysis; GMV: Gross Merchandise Value; TPV: Total Payment Volume
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 64
- 65. eBay vs. NASDAQ Composite
5 years 2008 - 2013
170
Ebay 160
150
130
110
NASDAQ
90 Composite 119
70
50
30
1/3/2008 1/3/2009 1/3/2010 1/3/2011 1/3/2012 1/3/2013
Source: finance.google.com
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 65
- 66. eBay vs. NASDAQ Composite
2 years: 2011 - 2013
160
Ebay 156
150
140
130
120
NASDAQ
Composite 130
110
100
90
80
1/3/2011 1/3/2012 1/3/2013
Source: finance.google.com
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 66
- 67. eBay vs. NASDAQ Composite
1 year: 2012 - 2013
180
Ebay 167
170
160
150
140
130 NASDAQ
Composite 117
120
110
100
90
80
1/3/2012 1/3/2013
Source: finance.google.com, Compiled and analyzed by Accenture
Copyright © 2013 Accenture All rights reserved. 67
- 70. Rights to trademarks referenced herein, other than
Accenture trademarks, belong to their respective
owners. We disclaim proprietary interest in the marks
and names of others."
Copyright © 2013 Accenture. All rights reserved. 70