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Lecture 1-Technology, Innovation and Modern War

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acquisition, ash carter, Technology, Innovation and Modern War, department of defense, dod, hacking for defense, intlpol 340, joe felter, kill chain, max boot, military innovation, ms&e296, raj shah, requirements, stanford, Steve blank, China

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Lecture 1-Technology, Innovation and Modern War

  1. Technology, Innovation, and Modern War INTLPOL 340; MS&E 296 Steve Blank, Joe Felter, Raj Shah Lecture 1
  2. “The problem is not lack of money, lack of technology, and certainly not lack of capable and committed people in the US government, military and private industry. No, the real problem is a lack of imagination.” Christian Brose, Kill Chain 2020
  3. Agenda • Teaching Team • Class Logistics • The Course at A Glance • Ash Carter • Lesson 2 - coming attractions
  4. Student Intro Name, Discipline, Interest
  5. Teaching Team
  6. Steve Blank Co-creator Lean Startup Co-author Hacking for Defense Member Defense Business Board Created I-Corps and I-Corps @ NSA Air Force Veteran 8 startups ● Semiconductors ● Supercomputers Details at www.steveblank.com ● Enterprise software ● Military intelligence
  7. Joe Felter ● William J. Perry Fellow, CISAC/FSI ● Hoover Institution, National Security Task Force ● Fmr US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense ● Coauthor Hacking for Defense ● Senior Advisor, Defense Innovation Unit ● US Army Ranger and Special Forces (ret)
  8. Raj Shah ● Visiting Fellow at Hoover / CISAC ● Hoover Institution, National Security Task Force ● Startup CEO and investor ● Former Managing Partner, Defense Innovation Unit ● F-16 pilot w/multiple combat tours
  9. Class Designer Andrew Powell ● Stanford GSB Alum (Class of 2020) ● EdTech Startup Founder and CEO ● Hacking4Defense 2019 - Team Learn to Win ● Leading AFWERX SBIR Direct to Phase II contract to deploy L2W in USAF and Navy operational environments
  10. Class TAs Nikita Demir ● BS / MS in Computer Science, focus in AI/ML ● Hacking4Defense class of 2019 ● Interned this summer at Catapult Ventures advising on AI/Robotics ● BS in Science, Technology, and Society ● Hacking4Defense class of 2019 ● Experience in Cybersecurity and Investment Banking Foster Karmon
  11. Civilian and Military Liaisons Lt Col Denny R. Davies U.S. Air Force (Hoover NSAF) LtCol Kenneth J. Del Mazo U.S. Marine Corps (Hoover NSAF) Mr. Chase Beamer U.S. Department of State (Hoover NSAF) LTC Edward Cuevas U.S. Army (Freeman Spogli Institute CISAC) LTC Eldridge R. Singleton U.S. Army (Hoover NSAF) Lt Col Steven Skipper U.S. Air Force (Hoover NSAF) CDR John “Jack” Souders U.S. Coast Guard (Hoover NSAF) CDR Jeffrey Vanak U.S. Navy (Hoover NSAF) LTC Jim Wiese U.S. Army (Hoover NSAF)
  12. Class Logistics
  13. Recording/Guests This Zoom Class will be recorded Guests • All potential virtual guests require prior approval. Please an email to Joe Felter with the guest’s name, affiliation and visit purpose • If you’re online now and not a student please use the chat room to introduce yourself now: Name, affiliation and who invited you.
  14. Class Facts • Tuesdays and Thursday 4:30 - 5:50 pm Pacific • Sept 15 – Nov 19th • Office hours by appointment • 4 credits
  15. Class Schedule Part I: History, Strategy and Challenges Sep 15: Course Introduction Sep 17: History of Defense Innovation Sep 22: DoD 101 Sep 24: US Defense Strategies and Plan Sep 29: Technology, Ethics and War Oct 1: Congress & the power of the purse Part II: Military Applications, Operational Concepts, Organization and Strategy AI and Machine Learning Oct 6 & 8: Introduction and Applications Autonomy Oct 13 & 15 Introduction and Applications Cyber Oct 20: Introduction and Applications Space Oct 27: Introduction and Applications Part III: Building a plan (Group project) How to build a plan for future war Nov 3: Conops planning Nov 5: Budget and Innovation Nov 10: Team working with DoD Mentors Group Presentations and Critiques Nov 12: Groups 1-2 Nov 17: Groups 2-4 Course Reflections Nov 19: Defending Our Vision for the Future
  16. The Big Picture
  17. Empires Rise and Fall Source: Ray Dalio Principles
  18. National Power • Diplomacy • Information • Military • Economics • Acronym is DIME
  19. Definition of a Weapons System • In the 20th century it typically meant a gun, tank, plane, ship, missile, bomb, spacecraft • Most often something designed to have a kinetic affect • In the 21st century – and in this class – weapons systems will often be non-kinetic – cyber, disinformation, AI & machine learning, autonomy, space • All which can win wars without killing people • How will they be used to sustain the other parts of DIME?
  20. National Dominance Is Transient • 1945 -1991 Bipolar world – U.S. and Soviet Union • 1992 -2018 25+ years U.S. as the dominant global power • 2018 - National Defense Strategy 2+3
  21. How Is Dominance Lost? • Lose a War • Miss a technology transition • Miss new operational concepts • Lose Allies • Declining economic power • Declining interest in global affairs • Internal/civil conflicts
  22. How Is Dominance Lost? • Lose a War • Miss a technology transition • Miss new operational concepts • Lose Allies • Declining economic power • Declining interest in global affairs • Internal/civil conflicts This class
  23. Why Do We Care?
  24. Why Do We Care? Crimea, Eastern Ukraine, Tibet, Hong Kong or ask the Uyghurs
  25. 2018 National Defense Strategy “The 2+3” • Wakeup call to the Dept of Defense • U.S. was focused on counterterrorism since 9/11/2001 • Meanwhile 2 Global threats emerged • A rearmed Russia, and China now a peer competitor • And 3 other threats • North Korea and Iran as regional threats and non-nation states • Compounded by rapid technological change • AI/ML, Autonomy, Cyber, Space, Hypersonics, Directed energy…
  26. The Course At A Glance
  27. This Class Has Three Parts 1. How does technology turn into weapons? • How do they get acquired, deployed and used to win wars? 2. What impact will AI/Machine Learning, Autonomy, Cyber and Space have on war? • How will they be used? 3. How would you acquire, deploy and use a new technology • in a real scenario
  28. New Weapons: the Path to Deployment Budget 3 Can we afford it? 1 Requirements Process is called the Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System (JCIDS) 2 Defense Acquisition System (DAS) 3 Budget Process is called the Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution System (PPBE) Requirements 1 What do we need? Acquisition 2 How do we buy it? F-35 Ford Carrier Columbia Sub
  29. New Weapons: the Path to Deployment Budget 3 Can we afford it? 1 Requirements Process is called the Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System (JCIDS) 2 Defense Acquisition System (DAS) 3 Budget Process is called the Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution System (PPBE) Requirements 1 What do we need? Acquisition 2 How do we buy it?Theory
  30. Practice
  31. Requirements & Acquisition Top-down Central Planning , • Weapons Requirements • Years to get defined, detailed to an excruciating level • Service and contractor-driven/ Negligible impact of commercial tech • Acquisition process: • Waterfall process, assuming status quo for needs decades ahead • Focus on political risk reduction (fraud prevention, jobs in every state, lobbyist driven, etc.) • Oversight agencies GAO, DoDIG, the audit agencies • part of the problem assuring compliance with bad strategy
  32. Requirements & Acquisition Top-down Central Planning , • Weapons Requirements • Years to get defined, detailed to an excruciating level • Service and contractor-driven/ Negligible impact of commercial tech • Acquisition process: • Waterfall process, assuming status quo for needs decades ahead • Focus on political risk reduction (fraud prevention, jobs in every state, lobbyist driven, etc.) • Oversight agencies GAO, DoDIG, the audit agencies • part of the problem assuring compliance with bad strategy Required us to predict the future - for decades
  33. Doctrine and Operational Concepts • Having an existing weapon doesn’t describe how they are used to fight or win a war • How weapons are used are described in Doctrine • Doctrine provides the basis of operationalizing the use of a weapon. Not just how, but who mans it, how do you sustain it, etc.. • Operational concepts are the Minimum Viable Products of the practical application of a doctrine against a specific enemy in a specific environment. • New adversaries can create the need for a new doctrine • ie. 2006 Counterinsurgency doctrine • New classes of disruptive tech/weapons can create the need for new doctrine • We can’t create doctrine against new technology fast enough
  34. Monopoly on Power + War on Terror = Strategic Complacency • 1992 -2001 Unipower • 2001- 2018 War on Terror • Our adversaries had less capable weapons • Existing Strategic Doctrine/Operational Concepts • New tactical doctrine – Counterinsurgency • No national economic sacrifice • Incremental strategic weapons Improvements • F-35/Ford-class carriers/B-21/Columbia SSBN • Innovative tactical improvements • Reaper/Predator, etc.
  35. Incremental Improvement Along Traditional S-Curves Debugging Shakedown Forrestal-Class Carriers Nimitz-Class Carriers Ford-Class Carriers Shakedown … S-Curves Insufficient to understand impact to doctrine
  36. Result - Incremental Changes In Doctrine Doctrine Incremental weapons improvements Refine existing doctrine
  37. Result - Existing Contractors Favored Doctrine Sam e Contractors Incremental weapons improvements Contractor s
  38. New Tech Creates New Doctrine Disruption in tech forces changes in doctrine New Doctrine Disruptive tech/weapons
  39. New Tech Creates New Contractors New Doctrine New Contractors Disruptive tech/weapons
  40. Impact of New Technologies
  41. Visionaries See Over the Horizon • They can see technology that looks like a toy and imagine it fully formed a decade out • Able to form new operating concepts against new threats/opportunities • Andrew Marshall ONA, Admiral Rickover, Elon Musk- Tesla/SpaceX • Blitzkrieg (Von Manstein), AirLand Battle (Creighton Abrams) • Then rapidly build backwards to get there • Executors dismiss them • Because most visionaries are hallucinating • But the few that are right, change the world or win wars
  42. The Course At A Glance Part 2: What Impact will AI/Machine Learning, Autonomy, Cyber and Space have on war? And where do we find and acquire that tech?
  43. DoD not designed to buy agilely
  44. Especially in software
  45. Article 1 and Congress
  46. 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
  47. 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 On-time budget Late budget TBD
  48. Change is happening, but still early and fragile Source: Govini, Evaluating the Innovative Potential of Other Transaction Authority Investments https://www.govini.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Govini-OTA-Innovation-Potential.pdf DoD OTA contract growth ($ & quantity)
  49. The Course At A Glance Part 3: New Operational Concepts
  50. New Technologies and Applications Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning Autonomy Cyber Space Commercial Applications Military Applications
  51. Guest Speaker: Dr. Ash Carter

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