2. Agenda Overview of the Operational Environment Global/Regional Trends Key Characteristics An Era of Persistent Conflict Hybrid Threat Emerging Nature of Threat Operations Threat Overview Final Thoughts
3.
4. Requirements for personnel, materiel, training and education, organizations, etc . . . Requirements Determination
8. …Information …Globalization …Ideology …Shifting Demographics …Environmental Fragility …Weapons of Mass Destruction The Operational Environment Top 1% of world population owns 40% of wealth… 2.8 billion below poverty by 2025 Media microscope, billions of connected people … Social Media phenomenon … 60% in urban areas by 2030 … 90% of pop growth in 2030 in developing countries … Youth Bulge in Africa, Middle East Competing cultures challenge state authority…Hezbollah’s perceived legitimacy …Technology ~25 nations possess, stockpile or develop … dual use chemical/bio weapons World food cost up 45%... Energy demand increasing 1.6%/yr … 450M severe water shortage 70% of S&T research conducted outside of U.S. … DIY UAVs for < $1,000
18. With an absence of local security or aneffectivelocal government … containing competing factionslocked in internal conflict …
19. Against hybrid, full spectrum andnetworked enemies embedded in the local population and possessing a wide range of advanced technologies and military capabilities, including possible WMD …
20. Employing adaptive and asymmetric combinations of traditional, irregular and criminal tactics …
28. Characterized by a continually changing mix of armed forces and entities
29. Local problems are global problemsConfrontation is the NORM…there is less of a distinction between war and peace … different levels of conflict
30. The Nature of Hybrid Threats Armed Forces are created to meet national/organizational needs in local/regional settings against neighboring states or internal threats U.S. forces dominate conventional, local or regionally focused armed forces The force the adversary needs to meet local requirements – is not the force it needs to challenge the U.S. Crime Irregular Extremist Opportunity Tailorable Strategy Organization ADAPTIVE APPLICATIONS TRADITIONAL Doctrine Capabilities Creative Defensive Seek advantage through regular + irregular forces, conventional + unconventional, all unified in purpose “Hybrid” New Technology/Rapid Adaptation Combat Developments US Dominance Uncertainty
31. United States STRATEGIC PRECLUSION OPERATIONAL EXCLUSION Reduced Dominance ACCESS LIMITATION OPERATIONAL SHIELDING I I Mov / Mov / Mov / Mov / Intel Intel Intel Intel n n Man Man Man Man f f o o r r m m Gaining Dominance C2 C2 C2 C2 a a Ldr Ldr Ldr Ldr SYSTEMS WARFARE Fires Fires Fires Fires t t i i Protect Protect Protect Protect Sustain Sustain Sustain Sustain o o n n STRIKE RAPID TACTICAL TRANSITIONS Adversaries in 2020 & beyond STRATEGIC ATTACK Emerging Nature of Threat Operations Dominance Time
32. Threat Overview IEDs/Mines ADA Artillery Direct Fire Continue to evolve, missions will overlap. Iconic system attacks. Active engagement of UAVs and PGMs. Accuracy, range and lethality Increase, Dwell time decreases. Countermeasures Armor Cheap, plentiful, attacks soft targets using masking and surprise. CBRNE ATGM Frontal overmatch, Add-ons prolific, Low-observable technology Obscurants cheap/available, APS cost decreasing, integration difficult, field expedient D&D widespread. Information Operations Difficult to detect or defeat. Lethal, Available, Day/Night, Engage out to 7km. Insider the key CNO threat, multipurpose and GPS deception jammers, RF weapons available for close-in (unpredictable effects).
33. Final Thoughts Beyond 2028 Past Present Power Dynamic Nation States Shadow Organizations Emerging non-State World Order Multi-polar Uni-polar Bipolar Military Engagements Traditional Adaptations Power Projection Deterrence Nature of Warfare “Conventional” Counterinsurgency Combinations Adversaries Cellular Hybrid Hierarchical Big Threat Integrated Attack Terrorism M.A.D.
Editor's Notes
The OE is a doctrinal term that is recognized by the joint community as the composite of conditions, circumstances and influences that affect a commander’s decision making. It does this by viewing the environment through the lens of present and future trends and drivers that could affect how a Commander will organize and employ forces. We at TRADOC G-2 contribute to this by continually assessing and re-evaluating the OE concept paper. For us, it is a living document that analyzes all of these conditions, circumstances and influences to ensure that they are relevant and accurate. In this way, we are ensuring that everyone understands the characteristics of current and future operations, as well as the nature of those threats encountered in those operations.To understand why it’s important, we need to understand what it influences. The OE is the lifeblood of leader, concept and capabilities development and support to training. It is critical for training the right leaders for tomorrow.Because of this, the OE influences all of these functions here – to include the spectrum of DOTML-PF as well as how we think about and approach conflict, and how we plan for unique operations, such as MAROFor you all, the OE is instrumental in developing DOTMLPF concepts because it prescribes the conditions that need to be replicated for training and testing.
Here we have emphasized what we judge to be the most critical trends to watch in the future operational environment.Globalization – the best thing about Globalization is the expanded transfer of goods, ideas, technology and people. The worst thing about Globalization is [same thing]. 1% - but also 2.8 billion people are expected to be living below the poverty line by 2025. Disparity is becoming more pronounced and people are becoming more aware. Info – With an ever expanding global communication network, we have undergone a fundamental change in how we communicate, store, process, and manipulate info. You have all witnessed this phenomenon – the tweets from Iranian citizens following the prez elections; the byzantine hacks on facebook, texting while driving, the youtube frenzy that shut-down the internet after Michael Jackson’s death. More ppl have more access to info – and the ability to spread that info on a global scale – than ever before. Drawing on Ian Bremmer’s J-Curve theory, these trends towards greater openness represent the gravest immediate danger to closed, authoritarian states like Burma, DPRK and Iran, because they no longer have the decisive ability to control and manipulate information flow. Our concern is that they will respond by reconsolidating their power.Demographics – The likelihood of instability will increase as developing countrypopulations of will almost double in size by 2020 (esp. in Africa, the Middle East, and South and Southeast Asia. The “youth bulge” created by this growth will be vulnerable to anti-government and radical ideologies and will threaten government stability. In the last 2 decades, 80% of all civil conflicts took place in countries where 60% or more of the population was under 30 yrs old. 90% of world’s population growth in 2030 will occur in developing countries… Opposite in the developed world…dev world’s share of global pop is 14%; it will fall to 10% by 2050. As early as 2015, the worker population in Europe and Japan will shrink by 1% per year.; But the biggest kick is urbanization. By 2030, 60% of world’s pop in urban areas; 1 of 3 of these will be living in slums. Think about the 2nd/3rd order effects: strains on resources/infrastructure, spread of pandemics, unemployment and disaffection, high crime rates.Ideology – Identity will become increasingly based on religious convictions and ethnic affiliations, implying that individual loyalty to the state and state institutions will become increasingly conditional. In other words, groups and non-state actors will find it easier to exploit these fractures to supplant state’s ability to provide the basic needs of its pop, while also carrying out own agenda. Hezbollah legitimacy in 2006 war; Al-Shabab in Mogadishu today. Takeaway is changing nature of power, have to work harder to identify critical stakeholders in conflict. WMDs – Both states and non-state actors will to seek WMDs as a way to achieve regional power or to deter U.S. action, and there are multiple sources they can access to do so. Also, chemical and biological weapons can be integrated into legitimate commercial infrastructures to conceal a country’s capabilities. May 2003 aQ Fatwa – Zarqawi’s foiled cyanide plotsTech – Big concern is that we’re behind power curve. 70% of S&T research is conducted outside of the U.S., and China and India graduating more engineers than we are. Compounding this prob is the proliferation of COTS tech and open access to what used to be specialized, esoteric studies – how to build a dirty bombs, how to take down the DOIM, how to utilize chem/bio agents readily available in civilian industries, etc. While tech can dramatically improve our lifestyles and well-being, extremists are exploiting that same technology to manipulate perceptions, export terror, and recruit the people who feel disenfranchised or threatened by its effects. Resources - Between 2009 and 2020, global energy demand is projected to grow at an average rate of 1.6% per year. In addition, by 2030, energy requirements are predicted to be more than 50% higher than today. Twenty-one countries today – with a combined population of about 450 million – are considered to be either cropland or freshwater scarce. By 2025, 15 more countries will be added to this list bringing the global population total to 1.4 billion people. The forecast for developing countries is particularly dire, as their agricultural activities currently consume over 70 percent of the world’s water. Conclusion – The trajectory of these trends is leading us towards an environment of instability, uncertainty, and complexity.
As we touched on throughout this brief, one of the most critical variables in the operational environment that will drive all other variables is the continuing information revolution. Based on projections of technological innovations and considerations of human behavior, this revolution will include four distinct realities…Small World – with billions of people connected via mobile media centers at any one time, real time information transmission will be the norm. Expect your actions to be recorded at all times, other via a CCTV, a camera-enabled cell-phone, or some other miniscule data storage device. Along with this interconnectedness comes the loss of privacy. Indeed, today information is already yearning to be free, with the proliferation of open source codes (LINUX), free eBooks downloadable straight to your PDA, and the explosive blogosphere that has replaced traditional news sites as primary sources of information. By 2028, once highly coveted information – to include specific, esoteric information on how to build your own army – will be publicly available.Transparent Battlefields – In this same vein, this enhanced access to information will mandate greater accountability for government activities. Military operations will always include journalists and media representatives, and failure to address basic governance issues will create opportunities for revolutionaries and insurgents to lay their claims. Omnipresent Media – An omnipresent media means that someone will always be watching…”media” too, will take on a new meaning, to include citizen journalists – anyone inclined to comment. Thus, the idea of truth becomes elusive, as anyone will be able to create and manipulate information. This is a critical point as information advantage will ultimately determine the victor (IO campaigns become ever more important).Cyber Sanctuary – Finally, the cyber domain represents the single greatest sanctuary for hobbyists, hacktivists, and terrorists alike. As the lines between fiction and reality continue to blur, so increases the potential for sensational plots and attacks. The super-empowered individual of tomorrow will have a vehicle to flourish.
There are certain enduring characteristics about the operational environment that we believe will remain constant into the future. A couple of these are particularly significant and worth pointing out. The first is that war will be fought amongst the people, with unfamiliar cultures, and where human suffering will likely permeate all aspects of operations, so human security must always remain a top planning consideration. It will be found in urban environments or in lawless areas (great example is the FATA in Pakistan) Globalization will encourage both the spread and advancement of S&T, making it even more likely to see WMD capabilities in the near future; and yet high tech capabilities will be combined with ubiquitous, low tech capabilities, which means that we will have to deal with a wide range of ttps And most importantly, the nature of the information environment is evolving at a faster pace. We are more interconnected than ever before. Already we find ourselves under a media microscope. Someone will always be watching, and potentially recording our actions. And so perceptions in the future will matter as much, possibly even more so, than reality.
