Perspektif Ketahanan Energi dalam Dinamika Global

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Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral
Republik Indonesia
Disampaikan pada Seminar Nasional PIKI
16 September 2022
MENEROPONG RAPBN 2023
Perspektif KETAHANAN ENERGI dalam Dinamika Global
Dr. Sampe L. Purba
Staf Ahli Menteri ESDM Bidang Ekonomi Sumber Daya Alam

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KETAHANAN ENERGI DALAM PERSPEKTIF DINAMIKA
GLOBAL
Ketahanan Energi :
 Available  supply side
 Affordable  varies across consumers
 Accessible  to drive economy
 Sustainable  Environmentally Friendly
ENERGI
BERKEADILAN
Scope of
discussion
today
1. BBM
2. Gas
3. Listrik
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Trilemma Energy Index 2021
Selected Countries
Rank # Country total score
Population
(m)
Land Area
000 KM2
GDP Per
Capita
USD
1 Sweden 84.2 10.4 407.3 57,978.0
9 United States 79.0 328.2 9,147.4 76,027.0
25 Malaysia 72.8 32.7 330.8 13,286.0
28 Russia 71.2 145.4 16,376.9 12,575.0
29 Argentina 70.6 47.3 2,736.7 12,187.0
51 China 64.0 1,411.8 9,388.2 14,096.0
58 Indonesia 61.1 275.7 1,904.6 4,691.0
70 Philippines 55.3 109.9 298.2 3,646.0
75 India 53.1 1,407.5 2,100.0 2,515.0
93 Nigeria 40.5 218.5 2,230.0 2,536.0
source https://trilemma.worldenergy.org/#!/energy-index
IMF, World Economic Outlook, 2022
Undang-Undang Energi nr 30 thn 2007
IMF, World Energy Outlook 2022
Ketahanan-kemandirian-atau-
kedaulatan-energi @Sampe Purba

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Highlight Energy Subsidy Ceteris Paribus
Basic Assumption :
 ICP and Currency Rate
 Qt BBM Jenis tertentu
- Solar 17 juta K/L [subsidi rp. 1.000/ liter]
- Minyak tanah 0,5 juta K/L
- LPG Tabung 3 kg = 8 juta metrik ton
- BPP Listrik [fuel mix, biomass for cofiring
PLTU, PPN increase]
Subsidi Tepat Sasaran :
Consumers, Product, Corporation
Transformation and Data Integration (mis. DTKS, Perlinsos)
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RAPBN 2023 – Energy Sector
SUBSIDY
 Subsidy on Energy increased steadily
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Energy Heritage : Indonesia in Global comparison
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 Natural Resources – Geological Heritage
 Fiscal Terms
 Regulatory – Permits – Security Issues

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Energy Price Global Projection
https://www.statista.com/statistics/326017/weekly-
crude-oil-prices/
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Historical Portrait of Energy Consumption
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Related to Shipping, Insurance, storage, distribution and volume cost

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Fairness and Competitiveness along the value chain

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Electricity Imbalances and disparity
@IEA, Towards NZE Indonesia, 2022
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Pattern of Global Energy Consumption
Indonesia Announced Pledges Scenario
@IEA, Towards NZE Indonesia, 2022
World Pattern Energy Consumption
@ BP Statistical Review, 2022
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The Prospect of Mineral – Metal – Renewable Energy
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 Towards the cleaner energy, selected minerals and metals have a very important roles
 The materials concentrated in a few countries only
 It raises the concern of industrialized consuming countries and int’nal organizations

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Concluding remarks
• BBM
 Ketersediaan BBM untuk seluruh Indonesia merupakan prioritas utama
 Implikasi disrupsi global ke Dinamika Harga dan Supply – Chain
 Produksi Dalam Negeri perlu ditingkatkan, plus efisiensi dan tepat sasaran
• Gas
 Gas berfungsi untuk tujuan ekonomi dan misi sosial
 Import LPG due to the supply demand gap and our domestic lean gas
 Dinamika pasar global mempengaruhi pola supply, demand and price
• Ketenaga listrikan
 Fossil based primary energy masih merupakan andalan/ baseload
 Trend dan tuntutan global mengarah ke energi yang lebih bersih
 Perlu menjaga secara seimbang Ketersediaan Infrastruktur (transmisi,
distribusi), kehandalan, kemerataan regional dan harga
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Terima Kasih – Thank You
Sampe L. Purba
Scholar : Universitas Pertahanan
LEMHANNAS RI
Background Knowledges
EKONOMI, HUKUM, GEOSTRATEGY
ENERGY
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Terima Kasih
&
Follow Kami

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