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1. Implications of Development
Pathways for India’s Energy Future
© Council on Energy, Environment and Water, 2020
Dr Vaibhav Chaturvedi
Research Fellow
Council on Energy, Environment and Water
India
Weekly Meeting
Council on Energy, Environment and Water
30 July 2020

2. CEEW – Among Asia’s leading policy research institutions
Energy Access Renewables
Low-Carbon Pathways
Technology, Finance & Trade
Industrial Sustainability &
Competitiveness
Risks & Adaptation
Power Sector
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CEEW Centre for Energy Finance

3. Scenarios
IPCC (2000)
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• Alternative visions for the future
• How will the post COVID world look like?
• A globalised world versus a Nationalistic world
• Why are scenarios important for the climate change debate?
– Long term perspective
– Research between different groups is complementary and comparable
– Governed by IPCC through a scientific process
“The goal of working with scenarios is not to predict the future but to better
understand uncertainties and alternative futures, in order to consider how
robust different decisions or options may be under a wide range of possible
futures”. – IPCC Scenario Process for AR5
Renewables Risks & Adaptation

4. Scenarios for climate change
IPCC (2000)
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• 1992: IS92 scenarios
• 2000: SRES scenarios
• 2007: RCP scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways)

5. Alternative approaches to scenario development
Source: Moss et al. (2008)
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6. Shared Socio-Economic Pathways
Source: Neil et al. (2013)
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7. First India specific paper on SSPs
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8. Operationalising alternative development pathways narrative
Source: Chaturvedi et al. (2019)
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9. Economic Growth in SSP scenarios
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• Based on OECD model ENV-Growth
• Focus on the long term
• Economic growth scenarios, not predictions
• Intensive stakeholder driven process

10. Schematic for economic growth
Source: Delink et. al (2017)
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11. GDP projections can be differentiated by:
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• Based on intensive stakeholder process

12. A world with deep regional rivalry would make everyone worse off
Source: Delink et. al (2017)
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13. National Per Capita GDP projections would be strongly influenced by
global developments
Source: Delink et. al (2017)
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• Could this argument be wrong as far as specific national projections go?
SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5

14. Operationalising alternative development pathway narratives for
India: No Climate Policy
Source: Chaturvedi et al. (2019)
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15. India specific water withdrawal intensities
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16. Electricity generation mix would be very different under
alternative development pathways
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17. Water consumption and withdrawals would depend on the size
and mix of electricity generation system and the thermal cooling
technology
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18. The regional rivalry road
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• Protectionist economic policies and nationalistic concerns
• Increasing share of nuclear based electricity
• Electricity generation to be more water intensive
• Storage technologies market could be hit as nuclear could provide baseload
• Water disputes with neighboring countries
• TPPs dependent on Bhramputra can face water stress

19. An unequal India
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• Gap between haves and have nots ever increasing
• Poorer states would not invest in costly technologies, be it electricity or water
saving technologies
• Absence of water saving technology implies conflict between sectors for water
allocation
• Water conflicts across states could be expected

20. Key insights
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• Electricity access and affordability critically depend on development pathways
• Energy security could continue to be a key challenge
• MoEFCC’s water related notification would have a highly positive impact
• Interaction between climate policy and water policy will become increasingly
important
• Pressure on India’s freshwater resources will persist

21. Thank you
ceew.in | @CEEWIndia
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To be continued…