Identifying the Drivers of Conflict in a Transboundary River Basin: The Case of the Ganges River

1. Identifying the Drivers of Conflict
in a Transboundary River Basin:
The Case of Ganges River
SAJID KARIM, BANGLADESH
Young Water Diplomat Program
1

2. Scope of the Presentation
❑The Gagnes River Basin: At a glance
❑Understanding Conflict and Cooperation in a Transboundary River
❑Identifying the Drivers of Conflict
❑The Way Forward
2

3. The Ganges River Basin
As % of
total area
of the
basin
As % of total
area of the
country
BD 4 % 32 %
IND 79 % 26 %
NPL 14 % 100 %
CHN 3 % 0.3 %

4. Expiry of current
Ganges Water Sharing
Treaty
2026
1975
Operation of
the barrage
began
1977
Signing of First
Ganges Water Sharing
Agreement
1961
Construction of
the barrage
started
1951
India
decided to
build the
Farakka
Barrage
1982
1985 1996
MoU
MoU
Signing of
Ganges Water
Sharing Treaty
India and Bangladesh in the Ganges Basin
4

5. 1954
Kosi
Agreement
1920
Sarada
Agreement
1959
1996
Gandak
Agreement Mahakhali
Treaty
India and Nepal in the Ganges Basin
On Discussion
▪ Pancheswar project (5,600 MW)
▪ Saptakoshi (3,330 MW)
▪ Karnali (10,800 MW)
▪ Naumure (225 MW)
PDA Signed
▪ 900 MW Upper Karnali
▪ 900 MW Arun-3
PDA in the pipeline
▪ 600 MW Upper
Marsyangdi
▪ 750 MW West Seti
▪ 880 MW Tamakosi III
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6. Understanding Conflict and Cooperation
in a Transboundary River
6

7. Definition: Transboundary water conflict can be
defined as verbal, economic or military hostile
actions between stakeholders over internationally
shared water resources. (Pertersen-Perlman et
al., 2017)
Water Conflict
Local Level
Inter-state Level
Intra-state
Level
7

8. Definition: Transboundary water cooperation is a
process by which states take collaborative efforts to utilize
a basin’s resources in an efficient, equitable and
sustainable way to achieve a common interest that
produces mutual benefits, which would otherwise not be
available with unilateral action.” Zartman (2008);
McCraken (2017)
Water Cooperation
Indic
ators
for a
Coope
rative
Arran
geme
nts
Existence of a formal agreement
Existence of a river basin commission or
organization
Engagement of ministerial level in
cooperative meetings
Collaboration in joint technical projects
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9. Drivers of
Conflict
Hydrological
Political
Economic
Environmental
9

10. Hydrological Drivers of Conflict
• High hydrological and climatic
variability
• Mismatch between water demand and
supply
• Volumetric allocation of water
• Unilateral/Unsustainable human
interventions
• Degradation of water quality
• Unequal distribution of water
resources
10
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
1977 1987 1997 2007 2017
Total
renewable
water
resources
per
capita
(m3/inhab/yr)
Year
BD
India
Nepal

11. Economic Drivers of Conflict
• High level of water commitment
• Inter-sectoral water competition
• Different dependence on water
• Changing pattern of land use
• Scarcity of physically controllable
resources (fresh-water, arable land,
etc.)
11
Nexus
Food
Energy
Enviro
nment
Water

12. Political Drivers of Conflict
• Upstream-downstream
dynamics
• Asymmetric power
distribution and the presence
of a hydro-hegemon
• Domestic political dynamics
• Perception of national
interest and national security
and securitization of water
• Absence of multilateral and
regional arrangements
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13. Environmental Drivers of Conflict
• Absence of eco-centric and bio-
centric approach
• Adverse impact of climate
change
13

14. The Way Forward
Change in Policy Outlook
and Decision-Making
Process
Development of
Institutional Arrangement
Promotion of Benefit-
sharing
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“There is still enough water for all of us—but only so long as we keep it clean,
use it more wisely, and share it fairly”
Ban Ki-moon, Former UN Secretary General

15. Selected References
• Earle, A., Cascão, A., Hansson, S., Jägerskog, A., Swain, A. and Öjendal, J. (2015). Transboundary Water
Management and the Climate Change Debate. London and New York: Routledge.
• FAO. (2011). AQUASTAT Transboundary River Basins – Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna River Basin. Rome: FAO.
• McCracken, M. (2017). Measuring transboundary water Cooperation: Options for Sustainable Development Goal
Target 6.5. The background Papers. Stockholm: Global Water Partnership (GWP).
• Mukherjee, A., Bhanja, S. & Wada, Y. (2018). Groundwater Depletion Causing Reduction of Baseflow Triggering
Ganges River Summer Drying. Scientific Reports, vol. 8(1).
• Pandey, A., Prakash, A., Barua, A., Abu Syed, M. and Nepal, S. (2020). Upstream-downstream linkages in Ganges-
Brahmaputra-Meghna basin: the hydro-social imperatives. Water Policy, 22(6), pp.1082-1097.
• Pandey, P. (2016). India Bangladesh Domestic Politics: The River Ganges Water Issues. Singapore: Springer.
• Rahman, K., Islam, Z., Navera, U. & Ludwig, F. (2019). A Critical Review of the Ganges Water Sharing
Arrangement. Water Policy, vol. 21(2), pp. 259–276.
• Rahman, M. and Rahaman, M. (2017). Impacts of Farakka Barrage on Hydrological Flow of Ganges River and
Environment in Bangladesh. Sustainable Water Resources Management, 4(4), pp. 767–780.
• Yoffe, S., Wolf, A. and Giordano, M. (2003). Conflict and Cooperation Over International Freshwater Resources:
Indicators of Basins at Risk. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, (October).
• Zartman, I. W. (2008). Concept: Cooperation. PIN Points, 30, pp. 5–7.
• Zeitoun, M. & Mirumachi, N. (2008). Transboundary Water Interaction I: Reconsidering Conflict and Cooperation.
International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, vol. 8 (4), pp. 297-316.
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