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Global fish demand and supply outlook with a focus on China - a sample presentation based on WAPI tools and associated knowledge products

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http://www.fao.org/3/a-i3539e.pdf

World Aquaculture Performance Indicators (WAPI) is an endeavour initiated by the FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department to develop user-friendly tools for compiling, generating and providing easy access to quantitative information on aquaculture sector performance at the national, regional and global levels. This ppt is a sample presentation prepared based on information provided by WAPI tools and associated knowledge products (e.g. technical papers or policy briefs).

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Global fish demand and supply outlook with a focus on China - a sample presentation based on WAPI tools and associated knowledge products

  1. 1. GLOBAL FISH DEMAND AND SUPPLY OUTLOOK WITH A FOCUS ON CHINA A sample presentation based on WAPI tools and associated knowledge products
  2. 2. FISH DEMAND 2
  3. 3. Status and trends of per capita fish consumption: Developing regions versus developed regions 3 Source: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 607 (Figure 2)
  4. 4. Fish as a poor people’s food 4 Source: “Fish as a poor people’s food”, FAO Aquaculture Newsletter (FAN) 58 (pp. 49-51)
  5. 5. World: contribution of fish to animal protein intake remaining stable at around 17 percent 5 Source: FAO WAPI Fish Consumption Module
  6. 6. Fish’s contribution to animal protein intake: China (23%) > World (17%) 6 Source: FAO WAPI Fish Consumption Module
  7. 7. World: Freshwater & diadromous fish ranked #4 among the top-10 food items with greatest increase in contribution to global protein intake 7 Source: FAO WAPI Fish Consumption Module
  8. 8. World: Freshwater & diadromous fish has become the largest seafood item. 8Source: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 607 (Figure 8)
  9. 9. Freshwater & diadromous fish: a dominant seafood item (>50%) in only 31 countries or territories 9 Source: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 607 (Figure 10) Image: @2017 Google
  10. 10. Marine fish: a dominant seafood item (>50%) in more than 170 countries or territories 10 Source: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 607 (Figure 11) Image: @2017 Google
  11. 11. 47 million tonnes of fish demand growth (from mid 2010s to early 2020s) driven by income and population growth 11 Source: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 607 (Figure 24) Image: @2017 Google Notes: population growth (in every country) follows UN’s projection (medium-fertility-variant); income growth follows IMF’s projection of per capita GDP; and fish prices remain constant.
  12. 12. Regional distribution of fish demand growth driven by income and population growth from mid-2010s to early 2020s 12Source: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 607 (Figure 22)
  13. 13. Species composition of fish demand growth driven by income and population growth from mid-2010s to early 2020s 13 Source: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 607 (Figure 23)
  14. 14. FISH SUPPLY 14
  15. 15. Aquaculture has been the sole force behind global fish production growth since the 1990s 15 Source: FAO WAPI Aquaculture Production Module
  16. 16. Aquaculture < Capture fisheries in most countries 16 Source: FAO WAPI Aquaculture Production Module
  17. 17. Imbalanced global aquaculture production 17 • Top-10 aquaculture countries accounting for nearly 90 percent of world production in 2015 • Top-10: China (62%) + 6 other Asian countries (22%) + Norway (1.8%) + Egypt (1.6%) + Chile (1.4%) Source: FAO WAPI Aquaculture Production Module
  18. 18. 19 million tonnes of fish supply generated by trend aquaculture growth from mid-2010s to early 2020s 18 Source: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 607 (Figure 27) Image: @2017 Google Note: trend aquaculture growth means the aquaculture production in every country grows according to its recent trend
  19. 19. Regional distribution of trend aquaculture growth from mid-2010s to early 2020s 19 Source: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 607 (Figure 26) Note: trend aquaculture growth means the aquaculture production in every country grows according to its recent trend
  20. 20. Species composition of trend aquaculture growth from mid-2010s to early 2020s 20 Source: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 607 (Figure 25) Note: trend aquaculture growth means the aquaculture production in every country grows according to its recent trend
  21. 21. FISH DEMAND-SUPPLY GAPS 21
  22. 22. Estimated fish demand-supply gaps in early 2020s 22 Source: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 607 (Figure 30) Image: @2017 Google Note: fish demand growth driven by income and population growth (with fish price remaining constant); fish supply growth generated by trend aquaculture growth • Trend aquaculture growth in only 17 countries or territories would be able to generate enough fish to cover their fish demand growth from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s, whereas a deficit is expected in 170 countries or territories. • Trend aquaculture growth in nearly 120 countries or territories would cover less than 5 percent of their expected fish demand growth. • While the trend aquaculture growth would exceed 10 percent a year in less than 20 countries or territories, aquaculture in over 130 countries or territories needs to grow faster than 10 percent a year in order to generate enough fish to satisfy the fish demand growth
  23. 23. Regional distribution of fish demand-supply gaps in early 2020s 23 Source: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 607 (Figure 29) Note: fish demand growth driven by income and population growth (with fish price remaining constant); fish supply growth generated by trend aquaculture growth
  24. 24. Species composition of fish demand-supply gaps in early 2020s 24 Source: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 607 (Figure 28) Note: fish demand growth driven by income and population growth (with fish price remaining constant); fish supply growth generated by trend aquaculture growth
  25. 25. World: estimated fish demand-supply gaps in early 2020s 25 Source: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 607 (Table 4) Notes: 1. Standard projections are based on mean income elasticity coefficients and medium-fertility-variant population projections. 2. Conservative projections are based on the lower bound of the 95 percent interval of income elasticity coefficients and low-fertility-variant population projections. Standard1 Conservative2 Standard1 Conservative2 Fish 28.3 11.8 4.5 9.9 6.9 Finfish 12.7 1.8 4.8 8.4 5.4 Marine fish 10.7 6.7 4.0 40.3 30.9 Freshwater & diadromous fish 2.0 - 4.8 4.8 5.5 3.2 Shellfish 15.7 10.0 3.6 13.0 10.0 Crustaceans 5.2 3.3 4.8 14.5 11.3 Molluscs 10.4 6.7 3.1 12.3 9.4 Shell molluscs 8.6 5.4 3.1 10.9 8.2 Cephalopods 1.8 1.3 1,393.8 1,303.9 Aquaculture growth needed Annual aquaculture growth from mid-2010s to early 2020s (%)Demand-supply gap (million tonnes) Trend aquaculture growth World
  26. 26. China: estimated fish demand-supply gaps in early 2020s 26 Source: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 607 (Table A) Notes: 1. Standard projections are based on mean income elasticity coefficients and medium-fertility-variant population projections. 2. Conservative projections are based on the lower bound of the 95 percent interval of income elasticity coefficients and low-fertility-variant population projections. Standard 1 Conservative 2 Standard 1 Conservative 2 Fish 13.7 5.0 4.1 8.6 5.9 Finfish 2.6 - 1.9 4.4 5.8 3.3 Marine fish 1.3 0.5 5.7 18.4 10.8 Freshwater & diadromous fish 1.2 - 2.3 4.3 5.1 2.9 Shellfish 11.1 6.9 3.7 12.5 9.5 Crustaceans 3.2 2.0 4.3 14.6 11.2 Molluscs 8.0 4.9 3.5 11.8 8.9 Shell molluscs 7.2 4.3 3.5 11.1 8.3 Cephalopods 0.8 0.5 China Demand-supply gap (million tonnes) Annual aquaculture growth from mid-2010s to early 2020s (%) Trend aquaculture growth Aquaculture growth needed
  27. 27. FAO World Aquaculture Performance Indicators (WAPI): An initiative to facilitate evidence-based policymaking and sector management in aquaculture and fisheries 27
  28. 28. Welcome collaboration on WAPI 28 WAPI@fao.org

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