"Analytical Support for Agricultural Public Expenditure Scale-Up in Sub-Saharan Africa" presentation by Stephen Mink, World Bank, at the NEPAD, IFPRI, AGRA and World Bank Meeting to Align Efforts on Agricultural Policy and Knowledge Systems, Dakar, Senegal, January 6-7, 2009.

1. Workshop on Aligning Efforts on
Agricultural Policy and Knowledge
Systems in Support of CAADP
Stephen Mink
World Bank
Session I
Analytical Support for Agricultural Public
Expenditure Scale-Up in Sub-Saharan Africa
Dakar, 6-7 January 2009

2. Overview of Agric Public Expenditure
Maputo Declaration
Status – agric expenditure tracking surveys -->
Modest decrease to 57% (2007) of countries allocating less
than 5% of national expenditure
24% allocating 5-10%
19% allocating > 10%
CAADP Roundtable process and support on sector
investment and public financing in particular
External support to agricultural public investment
Developing the programs – tools, analytics
Financing the programs – coordination, consensus,
simplification through programmatic support
IFPRI, WB incl. with DFID, GF

3. Proposed Support for AgPER in CAADP
WB is drafting a proposal for enhancing AgPER work
as part of country roundtable activities
Proposal design:
Modular/menu (4 + 1)
Timing - country ownership is key --> two main entry points
Capacity building
Not all countries
Key to draw on CAADP experience incl. with ongoing
analytical support (stocktaking, options modeling)

4. Module 1 – Core Diagnostic AgPER
Largely a backward looking analysis, pulls the basic
expenditure data together
Provides an assessment of expenditure levels, trends
and composition
Compares these with stated national plans and
priorities, to identify consistency and gaps.
Will establish: (i) incorporation of donor investment
finance; (ii) COFOG classification; (iii) gaps between
planned and actual expenditure; (iv) availability of
information on private investment flows to the sector.

5. Module 2 – Medium-Term Expend. Framework
Moves expenditure planning and management to a
multi-year perspective (often three-year)
Grapples with longer-term forces affecting resource
availability and management
Gives management attention to the sustained
adjustments needed to align sector expenditure
efforts with longer-term goals
Works best when part of systematic budget-wide
effort under Ministry of Finance leadership
The World Bank is working closely with various SSA
Ministries of Finance on MTEF development as part
financial support to national budgets
Support can help get agriculture included among pilot
sector ministries for MTEF development

6. Module 3 – Public Expenditure Tracking
Assesses whether public resources budgeted are
actually reaching the intended programs and
beneficiaries
This tool is mostly applied in the health/education
sectors, but experience is growing in using it in the
agricultural sector (e.g. Uganda, Ethiopia, Niger).
Usually focuses selectively on an important
agricultural sector sub-component, as determined by
consensus (e.g. from PER diagnosis)
Consists of a detailed tracking of resources through
administrative and procedural steps, to identify
extent and causes of inefficient resource absorption
or deviation from plans.

7. Module 4 – Sub-sector Impact Evaluation
The core public expenditure diagnosis often identifies
big spending programs that could improve outcomes
Program expenditure impact analysis is typically
methodologically and data demanding, to undertake
quantitative analysis
Examples: irrigation investment, or of fertilizer
subsidies (on physical productivity, welfare impacts,
and their distribution)
Data may need to be gathered (e.g. farming
household surveys), and the methodological
approaches vary by agricultural sub-sector, so this
expenditure analysis is typically more focused and
time-consuming, hence likely to be most informative
once the basic public expenditure diagnostic work is
in hand

8. Module 5 – Core Analytics
Further exploration of the impacts of public
agricultural expenditure levels and composition on
sector growth and welfare outcomes
Build upon analysis already done – IFPRI, WB/DFID
AgPER Partnership
Expanding this work both methodologically and
across more countries would fill important knowledge
gaps
At the country level, the analysis would likely vary by
country, dependant on available data and could aim
to recognize household differentiation and its
implications for the geographic and sub-sector
composition of spending

9. Building Capacity for AgPER
Within MinAgs, especially for core diagnostic and
MTEF components
In-country networks, especially for expenditure
tracking, impact evaluation (e.g. academia, research
institutions / consortia, consulting firms)
RECs, e.g. through ReSKASS and M&E capacity
External agency technical support – lead partner may
vary at country-level, given capacity limits

10. Tentative Scale, Cost and Timeframe
Module roll-out, number of countries
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Total
M1 – Public Expenditure Reviews
# Countries, @ USD 125 5 5 5 15
M2 – Medium- Term Expenditure Framework
Development
# Countries, @ USD50 4 4 4 12
M3 – Public Expenditure Tracking
# Countries, @ USD 100 2 3 4 9
M4 – Expenditure Component Impact Analysis
# Countries, @ USD 100 2 4 5 11
M5 – Core Analytics
# Countries, @ USD 50 2 2 2 6
Cross-country study, @ USD 125
Mobilizing resources for these AgPER activities

11. Questions: Aligning with Ongoing Efforts
Are the two main entry points appropriate?
Does the modular approach fit CAADP needs?
If country selectivity is acceptable, what focus
countries?
How much capacity building is practical?
How best coordinate and draw on the various
external agencies’ strengths?