Baltimore’s steady economic recovery continued in September as payrolls grew by 2.1 percent compared to the previous year and the unemployment rate edged downwards to 5.3 percent.
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Baltimore Job Growth Led by Financial Sector as Unemployment Falls Below 5
1. Total jobs vs. unemployment rate: Baltimore
Source: JLL Research, BLS
Office employment trends (12-month change) :Baltimore
Source: JLL Research, BLS
Industrial employment trends (12-month change) :Baltimore
Source: JLL Research, BLS
• Non-farm employment across the Baltimore metro area totaled nearly 1.4
million, which is up 2.1 percent compared to the previous year and 3.5
percent higher than the previous cyclical peak reached in late 2007.
• Office occupying sectors in Baltimore have overall generated consistent
growth, however, Professional & Business Services faltered earlier in 2015
as the sector experienced negative movement. In a change of long standing
trends, Financial Activities has emerged over the past several months as the
leader in office occupying net gains.
• After sluggish growth through the beginning of 2015, industrial occupying
sectors of the Baltimore economy began to post significant payroll gains in
the second and third quarter.
• National payrolls grew in September by 142,000 jobs and August was
downwardly revised to 136,000. Office-using industries contributed just
43,000 jobs to September’s growth, continuing a trend of somewhat muted
office-using employment gains.
• Unemployment for both the country as a whole and college graduates
remained flat at 5.1 and 2.5 percent, respectively. Total unemployment fell
sharply by 30 basis points to 10.0 percent and will almost certainly reach the
single digits at some point later this year.
Real estate implications
After muted growth for nearly 18 months, Trade, Transportation & Utilities finally
posted significant job growth, which suggests the recent uptick in industrial
leasing may be sustained through the fourth quarter. The increased demand
from warehouse and logistics users will be needed to fill the development
pipeline, which is largely speculative. For the office market, financial tenants
have become increasingly active as the sector approaches its previous level of
peak employment. Submarkets with a substantial base of financial tenants, such
as the CBD, Owings Mills and Columbia are set to benefit from the trend.
Employment Update
Baltimore| September 2015
5.1%U.S. unemployment
1.8%U.S. 12-month job growth
5.3%Baltimore unemployment
2.1%Baltimore 12-month job growth
5.1%Maryland unemployment
1.7%Maryland 12-month job growth
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
1,100,000
1,150,000
1,200,000
1,250,000
1,300,000
1,350,000
1,400,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
unemployment rate
total jobs
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Professional & Business Services
Information
Government
Financial Activities
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Manufacturing
Trade, transportation & utilities
Mining, Logging & Construction