n the release of its Commercial Vehicle Dealer Digest, ACT Research noted that the economic picture remains largely unchanged, with growth moderating in 2019 from strong 2018 growth. The economy was already moderating as tailwinds from the end-of-2017 tax cuts diminished, but other caution flags are waving including current trade uncertainties, slowing industrial and auto sectors, tariff-driven inventory building, and an unfolding global economic slowdown. The report provides monthly analysis on transportation trends, equipment markets, and the economy.

1. Americas Commercial Transportation Research Co. LLC
4440 Middle Road, Columbus, Indiana 47203
Telephone: (812) 379-2085, Fax: (812) 378-5997
E-Mail: trucks@actresearch.net
_______________________________
June 24, 2019
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
ACT Research: Economy Strong, but Moderating; CV Industry Nearing Inflection Point
COLUMBUS, IN – In the release of its Commercial Vehicle Dealer Digest, ACT Research noted that
the economic picture remains largely unchanged, with growth moderating in 2019 from strong 2018
growth. The economy was already moderating as tailwinds from the end-of-2017 tax cuts
diminished, but other caution flags are waving including current trade uncertainties, slowing
industrial and auto sectors, tariff-driven inventory building, and an unfolding global economic
slowdown. The report provides monthly analysis on transportation trends, equipment markets, and
the economy.
“At the heart of ACT’s cycle duration prediction, carrier profitability and production peaks always lag
the freight cycle, so fleet capacity always accelerates relative to freight growth at exactly the wrong
time,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. He continued, “Since late 2017, ACT’s
forecasts have targeted 2019’s third quarter as the point at which the supply of Class 8 tractors and
demand for freight services were likely to tip so far as to break the current period of peak vehicle
production, as demand reverts to the mean. Current data and anecdotes make a strong case that
the call for a Q3 inflection expectation remains intact.”
Vieth added, “Weak freight is not just a trucking story as NA Class 1 rail volumes dropped 2.1%
year-over-year in May, after a 0.6% slide in April. Regarding the Class 8 market, current build rates
suggest potential upside to the 2019 forecast, but large new inventories and deteriorating freight and
rate conditions suggest erring on the side of caution remains the right call.” He concluded, “When
the change comes, it is likely to come fast.”
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus
industry data, market analysis and forecasting services for the North American and China markets.
ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and
their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. More information can be found at
www.actresearch.net.
Click here for more information about ACT’s Commercial Vehicle Dealer Digest.
ACT’s 61st seminar is scheduled for August 12-14, 2019, and will feature a dealer panel, as well
as discussions on near-term demand of North American commercial vehicle markets and the
impacts of tomorrow’s technical challenges. A global forecasting workshop is also being planned
in conjunction with this semi-annual event. Click here for seminar information.
Contributor to Blue Chip Economic Indicators and Member of WSJ Economic Panel
www.actresearch.net