The document discusses recent trends in the industrial real estate and employment markets in Detroit. It states that absorption has been positive for the past two years, pulling vacancies down and allowing the recovery to play out as auto industry production increases. Demand growth favors large, modern facilities, and fewer move-outs will lead to continued tightening of vacancies. Industrial employment in Detroit increased by 31,400 jobs over the past year, led by gains in manufacturing. Several companies in the Detroit area are expanding their industrial facilities and operations due to growing demand.
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Detroit Industrial Market Update
1. Industrial real estate implications
Job growth/loss by sector (12-month change)
Detroit
Absorption has been positive for the past two years, pulling vacancies down to
within 2008 levels. The market has also been seeing fewer large move-outs
lately, allowing the recovery to play out as the auto industry ramps up
production and drives growth in the local economy. Major tenants continue to
make leasing decisions in the 100,000- to 250,000-square-foot range and the
prospects for net absorption, at least in the next couple of quarters, remain
solid.
Demand growth will continue to favor large, modern product, and when met
with fewer move-outs, the result will be a continued firming of market
fundamentals. With a minimal supply pipeline, marginal improvements in
demand will result in a tightening of vacancies. Much of the metro’s supply has
fallen into obsolescence, making demolitions seem like a good option for
improving fundamentals.
Total jobs vs. unemployment rate
Detroit
Industrial employment trends (12-month change)
Detroit
Industrial employment update
Metro Detroit . June 2015
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Peak: 2,217,186 jobs
unemployment rate
total jobs
3.0%
• According to the most recent estimates from the BLS, total non-farm
employment in Detroit stood at ~1.9 million payrolls, representing an
annualized increase of 52,400 jobs or 2.8 percent. Meanwhile,
unemployment decreased 2.7 percentage points year-over-year to 5.1
percent.
• Industrial employment sectors have experienced substantial employment
expansion over the last year, recording an annualized net gain of 31,400
jobs across the metro. Employment gains were led by the manufacturing
sector, which added 14,700 jobs year-over-year.
• Total U.S. nonfarm employment increased by 280,000 jobs in May and
upward revisions were made to previous months totaling 32,000 jobs.
May's jobs report is welcome news and signals that growth is back on
track after a slow start to the year.
• U.S. unemployment increased 10 basis points to 5.5 percent as the labor
force participation rate ticked higher. Wages also showed growth,
recording an annualized increase of 2.3 percent, the highest level in
nearly two years. (10.0)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Trade,Transportation & Utilities Manufacturing Other Services Mining, Logging & Construction
5.5%U.S. unemployment
2.2%U.S. 12-month job growth
5.1%Detroit unemployment
2.8%Detroit 12-month job growth
5.4%Michigan unemployment
2.4%Michigan 12-month job growth
-1,900
-100
200
2,700
3,000
3,800
6,200
10,300
13,500
14,700
-3,500 1,500 6,500 11,500 16,500
Government
Other Services
Information
Leisure & Hospitality
Financial Activities
Educational & Health Services
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
Mining, Logging & Construction
Professional & Business Services
Manufacturing
Number of Jobs