Top 6 G10 countries - Overvalued Housing Market

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This presentation gives you a look into the overvaluation of the housing market across the globe. The focus is on the top 6 countries with housing prices that are overvalued.

Economy & Finance

Top 6 Over Value – Housing
Market – G10
Paul Young CPA, CGA
May 20, 2017

Paul Young - Bio
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4 and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

New Zealand #1
Source - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/photos/most-overvalued-

Canada #2
Source - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/photos/most-overvalued-

Sweden #3
Source - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/photos/most-overvalued-

Australia #4
Source - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/photos/most-overvalued-

Norway #5
Source - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/photos/most-overvalued-

United Kingdom #6
Source - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/photos/most-overvalued-

Summary
• Sweden and Norway have high cost of living
• Canada prices are driven by two cities (Toronto and
Vancouver)
• Australia and New Zealand are isolated locations

Other sources
• Canada vs Scandinavia -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/scandinavia-vs-
canada-economic-and-social-policies-november-2016
• Australia -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/economic-and-
government-policies-for-australia-june-2016
• New Zealand -
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-15/new-
zealand-housing-market-most-at-risk-of-bust-goldman-says

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Oil Imports - https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46776 and Saudi Arabia - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/u-s-imports-of-saudi-crude-won-t-stay-zero-for-long-1.1546425 China is EU largest trading partner - https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56093378 Trade gap rose in January 2021 - https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-trade-deficit-widened-in-january-as-americans-bought-more-imported-goods-11614952447 Stronger consumer demand - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trade-deficit-widens-in-january-11614952647 Chip Shortage - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-semiconductors-tools-idUSKBN2AW18P Clean Technology Metals - https://www.electrive.com/2021/02/25/usa-launches-battery-supply-chain-investigation/. China controls a large portion of metals required to support clean technology - https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/clean-technology-what-is-next-for-raw-materials or

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1. Housing Prices - https://wowa.ca/reports/canada-housing-market 2. Food Prices - https://retail-insider.com/retail-insider/2021/11/food-prices-are-rising-in-canada-but-so-is-theft-from-grocery-stores-sylvain-charlebois/ 3. Gasoline - https://www.npr.org/2021/11/14/1055068583/gasoline-prices-gas-energy-inflation-biden 4. Electricity - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/u-k-inflation-surges-to-highest-in-a-decade-on-energy-costs-1.1683049 5. Wages - https://www.benefitscanada.com/benefits/health-wellness/small-businesses-increasing-wages-benefits-to-attract-talent-survey/ 6. Automation - https://www.benefitscanada.com/benefits/health-wellness/small-businesses-increasing-wages-benefits-to-attract-talent-survey/ 7. AG - https://www.designnews.com/automation/want-see-robot-farm-watch-these-ag-machines-go 8. Output - https://financialpost.com/commodities/agriculture/canadas-harvest-bust-leaves-grain-companies-scrambling-to-meet-sales 9. Plant-base foods - https://www.healthing.ca/news/diets-heavier-on-plants-are-lighter-on-the-wallet-study-finds/ 10. Shoplifting - https://wowa.ca/reports/canada-housing-market

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Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, durable goods have been a major contributor to the increase in the CPI. Durable goods rose at a faster pace in August (+5.7%) compared with July (+5.0%), with passenger vehicles (+7.2%), furniture (+8.7%) and household appliances (+5.3%) contributing the most to the increase. In addition, prices for services have accelerated for the fifth consecutive month, rising at a faster pace in August (+2.7%) compared with July (+2.6%) amid easing of COVID-19 restrictions. Year over year, prices for traveller accommodation rose 19.3%. Reopening of businesses and summer travel contributed to the price increases. Prices rose in seven of the eight major components in August, with transportation prices contributing the most to the all-items increase. Conversely, consumers paid less for clothing and footwear, as prices declined year over year. Chart 2 Prices rise in seven major components Gasoline prices rise in August https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/210915/dq210915a-eng.htm 1. Telecom costs - https://leaderpost.com/news/politics/trudeau-abandons-promise-to-lower-cellphone-bills-says-ndp 2. Housing - https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/sudbury/housing-prices-election-issue-northeastern-ontario-1.6173421 3. Trudeau and monetary policies - https://www.todayville.com/edmonton/pm-trudeaus-monetary-policy-gaffe-could-cost-the-liberals-the-election-but-will-it/ 4. Higher freight costs - https://blog.intekfreight-logistics.com/intermodal-spot-rate-trendline-pricing-analysis 5. Stimulus - https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/bank-canada-signals-quantitative-easing-may-not-be-needed-much-longer-2021-09-09/ 6. High inflation - https://www.mondaq.com/canada/contracts-and-commercial-law/1107162/how-to-counter-inflation-related-effects-in-contracts-a-canadian-perspective 7. Down payment - https://edmontonsun.com/moneywise-pro/what-happens-when-every-home-in-your-city-requires-a-200k-down-payment 8. Commodities - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/commodities-prices-are-surging-again-1.1651381 9. Cost of living - https://www.expatistan.com/cost-of-living/toronto 10. Grocery bills - https://financialpost.com/news/economy/watch-for-prices-of-meat-grains-and-baked-goods-to-surge

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Summary: Inflation continues to be an issue for many Canadians. Green inflation continues to key part of the rise of inflation More and more people are being left out of the housing market 1. Average House – https://globalnews.ca/news/8516543/canada-home-sales-record-crea/ 2. Lumber prices - https://fortune.com/2022/01/12/lumber-prices-skyrocket-again-weather-sawmill-production-supply-chain/ 3. Gasoline – https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/commodity/WTI-2355639/news/Front-Month-Nymex-RBOB-Gasoline-Rose-0-53-to-Settle-at-2-4318-Data-Talk-37578932/ 4. Food - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-01-16/soaring-food-prices-can-pay-for-a-more-secure-future 5. Top jobs - https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/these-are-the-most-in-demand-skills-for-canadian-job-seekers-1.5741586 and https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/in-demand-highest-paying-jobscanada-2022 6. Home building - https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/18/homebuilder-confidence-drops-for-the-first-time-in-four-months.html 7. Education - https://www.kenoshanews.com/opinion/columnists/commentary-college-students-aren-t-getting-the-education-they-paid-for-where-s-the-reimbursement/article_66dd9f71-8aa3-56d4-8dc0-45de2fc67e4e.html 8. Rent costs - https://rentals.ca/national-rent-report 9. Shipping - https://rentals.ca/national-rent-report 10. Green Inflation - https://globalnews.ca/news/8508541/canada-green-transition-inflation/ 11. Natural gas prices - https://www.naturalgasintel.com/february-natural-gas-called-slightly-higher-as-forecast-outlook-steady-over-weekend/ 12. EV range - https://insideevs.com/news/561634/us-median-range-gasoline-bevs/ 13. Existing home sales - https://economics.td.com/ca-existing-home-sales 14. Businesses and Inflation - https://www.benefitscanada.com/canadian-investment-review/research-markets/canadian-businesses-predicting-higher-inflation-through-2023-boc-survey/

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What did the markets tell us this week? 1. Housing supply and costs continue to plague countries around the world. 2. Gasoline prices are on the rise that puts pressure on central banks ability to hit their core inflation targets. 3. ESG adoption by both the private and public sector is leading to both funding concerns and the overall cost of implementing ESG policies. 4. Adopting technology as part of increasing food production is facing both capital and operational funding concerns. 5. Strike at LNG facility in Australia is leading to concerns around a supply chain disruption of natural gas for EMEA and Asia. 6. The threat of China dumping batteries into markets - https://www.ft.com/content/b6038e51-7b5b-4f97-a5da-9202e71562fc 7. Adoption of generative AI has been facing many challenges related to security, privacy, and ethical issues. 8. Lack of biodiversity planning as part of the overall climate mitigation including sustainable mining, forestry, oil, gas, agriculture, and housing 9. Geopolitical issues continue to impact supply chain. 10. The concerns of recession continue to plague both the private and public sector. 11. Productivity issues continue to plague governments around the world.

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paul young cpa, cga

Summary: The global economy faces what at least one forecaster is calling a mild trade recession as shipments from China slump and German factories downshift. China’s export declines extended into August, though there were signs that the worst of a world trade slowdown may be over for the leading exporter. Overseas shipments from China fell 8.8% in dollar terms from a year earlier while imports contracted 7.3%, both better than economists’ estimates and significantly less severe than July’s downturn. Other data have suggested trade may be stabilizing after weakening for most of this year. Exports from South Korea also declined at a more moderate pace in August than the previous month. Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-09-07/supply-chain-latest-world-trade-faces-a-shallow-recession?srnd=economics-v2 Additional sources and links: Lithium - https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/falling-lithium-prices-challenge-potential-cost-advantages-of-sodium-batteries Oil Production - https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/06/business/oil-price-goldman-sachs/index.html Natural gas - https://www.fxstreet.com/news/natural-gas-holds-up-as-markets-in-limbo-over-strikes-202309070956 Lumber - https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/sawmill-capacity-closures-reshape-us-lumber-supply Critical metals - https://www.wasterecyclingmag.ca/feature/how-recycling-could-solve-the-shortage-of-minerals-essential-to-clean-energy/ Agriculture - https://www.morningagclips.com/economists-forecast-positive-end-of-year-crop-outlook-despite-warmer-midwestern-climate/ ESG - https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2023/09/the-informed-board/the-eus-new-esg-disclosure-rules Ports - https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HAPAG-LLOYD-AG-24857717/news/Hapag-Lloyd-chief-warns-of-rougher-seas-ahead-for-container-shipping-44789017/ Top destination for reshoring - https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/economy/2023/08/29/uae-in-top-10-most-powerful-passports-for-investment-opportunity/ Global Trade - https://phys.org/news/2023-09-opinion-broke-global-climate-finish.html

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Lumber production in Canada continues to face many hurdles Canada forest management practices are some of the bests in the world Canada planted over 440M in seedlings back in 2018. It is now 2022 which means close 2M seedlings have been planted. All levels need to put more focus on urban and rural planning solutions More work including spending on wildfire and forest fire mitigation Canada and USA need to find a path forward to resolve the softwood lumber dispute There needs to a better balanced between climate change policies and growing the economy in a sustainable way 3D printing for housing needs to become mainstream More protection needs to happen with key ecosystems like wetlands, forest, and peatlands. There is a risk of debt default if interest rates are hike over the next few months

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Top 6 G10 countries - Overvalued Housing Market

1. Top 6 Over Value – Housing Market – G10 Paul Young CPA, CGA May 20, 2017

2. Paul Young - Bio • CPA, CGA • Academia (PF1, FA4 and MS2) • SME – Risk Management • SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting • SME – Public Policy • SME – Financial Solutions • SME – Supply Chain Management Contact information: Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

3. New Zealand #1 Source - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/photos/most-overvalued-

4. Canada #2 Source - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/photos/most-overvalued-

5. Sweden #3 Source - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/photos/most-overvalued-

6. Australia #4 Source - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/photos/most-overvalued-

7. Norway #5 Source - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/photos/most-overvalued-

8. United Kingdom #6 Source - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/photos/most-overvalued-

9. Summary • Sweden and Norway have high cost of living • Canada prices are driven by two cities (Toronto and Vancouver) • Australia and New Zealand are isolated locations

10. Other sources • Canada vs Scandinavia - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/scandinavia-vs- canada-economic-and-social-policies-november-2016 • Australia - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/economic-and- government-policies-for-australia-june-2016 • New Zealand - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-15/new- zealand-housing-market-most-at-risk-of-bust-goldman-says

Top 6 G10 countries - Overvalued Housing Market

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