pManifold Distribution Franchisee and Utility Services


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pManifold Distribution Franchisee and Utility Services

  1. 1. Services in PowerDistribution Franchisee (DF)and Utility sectorCatalyzing emerging business models throughSTAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT | CONSULTING | RESEARCH5/24/2013 1© pManifold. All rights reserved.DISCOM Full DivestitureR-APDRPDistributionFranchisee (DF)FullPrivatizationSEBs
  2. 2. Power DF is a fast growing Utility Infra Mgmt. modelDF model evolution continues ..• 26 awarded DFs in 7 states of MS, MP, UP, Orissa, Jharkhand,Bihar and Chhatisgarh. (Another 7+ DFs have been bidded,and awaiting decision or re-bidding)• More states coming forward to host DF models based uponongoing debt restructuring of Discoms. Different variants ofDF models are being tested with mixed results.• Shunglu committee has recommended DF model for 255 R-APDRP Phase-A (urban) towns in the 12th Five Year Plan(2012-2017)• 50+ companies have participated in DF bidding, and there isfurther growing private interest• There is building service provider ecosystem to service DFmodel, including increasing confidence of investors(precedence of debt syndication and PE investments in DFprojects)• Overall bidding process and contract terms and conditions aregetting standardised, with further scope of improvementsKey Questions – If to Enter and How?5/24/2013 © pManifold. All rights reserved. 2DistributionFranchiseeDISCOMs•If, and what DF model?•How to engage best privateparticipation?•Criteria for selecting areasfor DFPrivate Companies•If to become DF operator?•How to operationalise DF forviability & end-servicedelivery?Service Providers•If DF good market to enter &extend solutions/services?•How to innovate private-to-private engagement?•Build strong valueproposition
  3. 3. pManifold Service mapping across DF Life Cycle5/24/2013 © pManifold. All rights reserved. 3Go-To-Market | Bid Support | Resources / Processes / Operations Building | Performance MonitoringDF Entry Decision DF Bidding DF Roll Out DF O&MForDiscoms DF model TopManagementworkshop Data analytics forDF modelappropriatenessmapping to Discomprojected reforms Baseline preparation – Assets,Commercials, Losses, Customer andService Level Audits Financial Modeling – minimum Inputbid price curve, capex projections, andrelated contract term and conditions Bidders Engagement – interestgeneration; pre-bid & bid facilitation;RFP change management Independent Facilitator for Knowledgeand legacy Data transfer to selected DFoperator Stakeholder Engagement with DiscomEmployees & new DF operator for smoothtransition Independent BusinessPerformance Monitoring andManagement Audits ofFranchisee (for strong endservices delivery & anychange management)ForPrivateOperators DF model TopManagementworkshop Portfolio mappingto go/no-go in DFbusiness Entry strategy DF Market Intelligence and all RFPTracking Technical Due Diligence: Site survey,asset health maps, bid intelligence &analytics Financial modeling & Bid Advisory Partnership development forconsortium bidding, M&A etc. Support on-boarding Senior Team andother critical resources to roll out Project Financing, bringing Investors,financial due diligence, M&As Strategic all-stakeholders roll-out map tosupport overall PM First baseline survey of Employees andCustomers to support Loss reductionstrategic road map Legacy Data Quality checks, migration,Analytics and Integration facilitation Vendor identification, evaluation,selection, and partnership development Organizational structure design,Resource Planning & process SOPs Capacity building/Training workshop innew employees on DF model Regular DF PerformanceMonitoring and ManagementAudits Continuous Capacitybuilding, organising skillstraining and BPRimplementation Quarterly Customerperceived service qualitybenchmarking across alltouch points and allCustomer processes like NSC,Metering Mgmt, Customerservices, Billing etc. Customer education,enabling and engagement( Portfolio mappingto DF requirements Go-to-Marketstrategy Early entry in the bidding phase of newFranchisees, to build and demonstratevalue proposition Facilitator for input gathering andcreating specific value proposition to DF Partnership development with DF Facilitator for businesscontinuity and independentperformance monitoring
  4. 4. pManifold Knowledge Assets in Power Distribution• Learn all aboutInput based DFmodel, past bids& risk/returnsResearchReport• Simulate ROI &detailedbankability ofyour interestedDFFinancialModel• Track all DFtenders andbenchmark theirattractivenessRFP Tracker• Measure andImprove servicequality deliveredto end-customersEUCOPS ©• Educate, Enableand Empoweryour end-customers forbest ©• Engage all utilitystakeholdersthrough Local & ©• Source best fitvendors fromselect andquality gradeddatabaseUtility VendorDirectory• Stay update onDF industry, andget mind sharefrom 1000+professionalsBlogs & PDFgroup5/24/2013 © pManifold. All rights reserved. 4Strengthening end-service delivery & overall viability of Indian Utilities
  5. 5. Our broader Utility PortfolioMarket Research, industry reportsGo-To-Market StrategiesFinancial Modeling & Bid AdvisoryBusiness Performance Monitoring,Analytics & ImprovementsCustomer Intelligence, Education &Satisfaction Monitoring ( Level BenchmarkingUtility Vendor Database &Solutions/Services gradingStakeholder Engagement -Conferences, Workshops, Blogs etc.3+ years young Utility focused Management Consulting company bringingbalanced growth & high service delivery to emerging regionsPowerDistributionWaterDistributionWasteManagementSupportstrengthening ofemerging PPP modelsfor improved end-service delivery &overall viability &sustainability...To newly add: Urban Transport andCity Gas Distribution verticals
  6. 6. Case StudiesPower DistributionFranchisee Projects5/24/2013 © pManifold. All rights reserved. 6
  7. 7. IBDF Market Research ReportKey Questions Answered..• What is potential of DF model?• Which states are looking to adopt the model?• What are key risks and challenges?• How is the bid process and how to analyze criticalcontract terms and conditions in the RFP?• What is a typical Capex Distribution for new DFs?• What Returns to expect from a DF model, and whatkey sensitivity parameters to analyze?• How has been the bidding scenario and trend inprevious DF bids?Report Beneficiaries• Some select companies includes SBICaps, General Atlantic, L&T, ABB, Moser Baer, Essel,Spanco, PNC InfraTech, ACME, SIS, SMS, IRIDIS,SPML, MEIL• Offered complementary workshop to their TopManagement to understand report content, andhelp them with their entry and investment decisionin DF business5/24/2013 © pManifold. All rights reserved. 7Building Knowledge on DF model in Utility Investment/Operations Team94.45%64.96%46.51%33.04%21.77%11.44%1.44%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%80.00%90.00%100.00%2.50 2.70 2.90 3.10 3.30 3.50InvestmentReturns(%)Levelised Input Price (Rs./kWh)Sensitivity to Input Bid Price(fixed capex)Equity IRR Project IRRBhiwandi(MS)Agra(UP)Aurangabad(MS)Nagpur(MS)Jalgaon(MS)Gwalior(MP)*Ranchi*Shil-Mumbra-KalwaBihar InferenContract Period(long contracts preferred by bidders)DF contract tenure hanew tenders settlingmeet their reform coAsset Health in RFP Baseline(Ageing, Transformer Failure Rate,etc.)RFP baseline needs todetails, ageing, R&Mdevelop rational capeRevenue & Customer Segmentation(Absolute Number & Time Trend)RFP baseline should smeter types, numbersubsidy, payment, coPerformance Guarantee (Inclusion ofElectricity Duty)DISCOMs risk is bettetowards performanceMinimum Benchmark curve for PriceBid (No benchmark is favored bybidders)Setting no min. benchinnovative in their prinstead share their caArrear Recovery Sharing (Highershare is better)Higher arrear recoverbidders. Ageing dataincentive time periodagitation, if arrear recDeputed Employees TerminalLiability Payment by DF (sharing withDF is fair)Sharing part responsiliabilities (gratuity/pesupportive to DISCOMO&M costs).Mandated AT&C Loss ReductionTrajectory (No trajectory is preferredby DF)A bulk target of reduchas higher chances oassociated penalities.could take good timePenalties for Non Achievement ofLoss Reduction Targets (Lower isbetter with bidder)Keeping low penaltieguarantee compliancbetween bidders willTreatment of Subsidy (Bid Price toinclude subsidy retention by DL. LikelyThere is risk for subsiare suffering it alreadComparative Review of RFPs, Bidder Preferences & OutlookDownload Executive Summary here1
  8. 8. DF Financial & Bankability ModelerModel Covers..• Tariff orders & RFP parameters trends• Capital Expenditure Planning• Depreciation & Working Capital calculations• Revenue and O&M cost calculations• Profit & Loss calculations• Income Tax calculations• Projected Balance Sheet• Cash Flows calculations• DSCR, IRR, Payback period calculationsClientele & Benefits• Some select companies includes Moser Baer, ACME,SIS, IRIDIS• The full powered Excel model with ability tosimultaneously present 50+ scenarios allowedclients to deeply understand interrelations andvarying sensitivity of different DF bid criticalparameters, and create competitive edge5/24/2013 © pManifold. All rights reserved. 8Simulation Tool to get hands-on with DF viability and quantify financial impact ofany new strategic interventionsOutputs Units Scenario 1 Scenario 2Total Equity throughout project Rs. Lacs 11,783.78 10,727.81Equity NPV @ Cost of Equity Rs. Lacs 8,440.66 5,514.26Project NPV@WACC Rs. Lacs 14,106.41 10,951.30Equity IRR (MIRR formula) % 27.04% 22.26%Project IRR @ WACC (MIRR formula) % 21.41% 18.90%Project Payback years 6.77 7.64Equity Payback years 6.49 7.78Average DSCR for period of loan repayment ratio 2.85 2.21Return on Equity (ROE) % 44.24% 34.25%Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) % 16.74% 16.17%Levelised Cost of Supply to DF per unit purchased Rs./unit 5.02 5.42Levelised Avg. Revenue Realised by DF per unit puchased Rs./unit 5.45 5.88Average O&M cost per Billed unit Rs./unit 0.40 0.36Average O&M cost per Input unit Rs./unit 0.34 0.31Quoted Levelized Input Bid Price (w/o TIR) Rs. Per unit 3.133 3.127Actual Levelized Input Bid Price (w/ TIR) Rs. Per unit 4.35 4.67Levelised ABR Rs. Per unit 6.31 6.76(Levelised ABR)/(Quoted LIP) Ratio 2.02 2.16(Levelised ABR)/(Actual LIP) Ratio 1.45 1.45Inputs Units Scenario 1 Scenario 2Capex Rs. Lakhs 15000 17500Employee Cost per unit Rs. Per unit 0.2 0.18Bid price growth rate: choice Curve 1_Minimum 2_AssumedBid price growth rate % 1.50% 1.50%Rate Offered Year 1 Rs. Per unit 2.450 2.475Equity % % 30.00% 30.00%Cost of Equity % 14.00% 14.00%Term Loan Interest rate % 15.00% 15.00%Annual Technical Loss reduction % 20.00% 17.00%Annual Non-Technical Loss reduction % 20.00% 20.00%Collection Efficiency improvement Rate % 10.00% 11.00%Avg. Tariff growth rate % 5.00% 6.00%Avg. Billed units growth rate % 13.00% 9.00%Key Outputs from the Excel Financial ModelKey Inputs to the Excel Financial ModelHidden2
  9. 9. RFP Tracker and Pre-Bid AnalyticsWe Cover• Monthly newsletter• All RFP Tracking & updated DFAttractiveness Matrix©• Pre-bid meeting takeaways• RFP data and Pre-bid analytics• Interviews of experts• Much more…Clientele & Benefits• 1000+ industry Leaders &Professionals registered with our DFNews Letter services• A proliferating community of practicearound Power Distribution Franchiseeis built with 700+ Linkedin members5/24/2013 © pManifold. All rights reserved. 9All DF RFP’s intelligence and news on subscriptionBihar Pre-bid sample analyticspManifold’s DF Attractiveness Matrix3
  10. 10. Benchmark Conservative Moderate AggressiveUnits 0 1 2 3Rate Offered Year 1 Rs. Per unit 2.565 2.900 2.905 3.010Rate Offered Year 2 Rs. Per unit 2.802 3.057 3.062 3.173Rate Offered Year 3 Rs. Per unit 3.035 3.261 3.267 3.385Rate Offered Year 4 Rs. Per unit 3.222 3.435 3.440 3.565Rate Offered Year 5 Rs. Per unit 3.402 3.508 3.514 3.641Rate Offered Year 6 Rs. Per unit 3.520 3.576 3.582 3.712Rate Offered Year 7 Rs. Per unit 3.549 3.602 3.608 3.738Rate Offered Year 8 Rs. Per unit 3.576 3.622 3.629 3.760Rate Offered Year 9 Rs. Per unit 3.603 3.653 3.660 3.792Rate Offered Year 10 Rs. Per unit 3.610 3.678 3.684 3.817Rate Offered Year 11 Rs. Per unit 3.663 3.683 3.689 3.823Rate Offered Year 12 Rs. Per unit 3.674 3.707 3.714 3.848Rate Offered Year 13 Rs. Per unit 3.685 3.722 3.729 3.863Rate Offered Year 14 Rs. Per unit 3.696 3.731 3.738 3.873Rate Offered Year 15 Rs. Per unit 3.707 3.741 3.748 3.883Ratio of Min to Max bid 0.78 0.78 0.78Quoted Levelized Input BidPrice (w/o TIR)3.276 3.420 3.426 3.550% high from Min. set 0.00% 4.40% 4.58% 8.36%Assuming AT&C loss reduction trajectory hitting 15% in 5yearsOUTPUTSDF Bid Advisory – Technical and FinancialServices include..• Top Management’s Workshop on portfolio hosting of DFbusiness and which region(s) to bid for• Partnership Development for qualified Bid preparation• Techno-Commercial Due Diligence (DD)– Key Utility officials, ground staff, Opinion Leaders andselect customers feedback on existing assets (RFPvetting), electricity service quality, and existing/futureload growth– Collect and analyse 1° and 2° technical & commercialparameters in the DF area for understanding theNetwork & Customer side performance based onloading, ageing, failures, outages, collections, arrearsetc.– Technical inputs & techno economic feasibility for thecapital investment in the identified distributionnetwork for the following points:• Renovation & Strengthening of the network• Meeting the load growth for the DF tenure• Financial Bid Modeling and Bid Strategy– All previous ARR and Tariff petition analytics for tarifftrends and identifying other regulatory risks– Consolidated Financial model building and scenarioanalysis to facilitate bid strategyClientele & Benefits• Supported DF bid analysis (Technicaland/or Financial) in Gwalior, Ujjain, Sagar,Mumbra, Ranchi, Jamshedpur, Dhanbad,PESU, Bhagalpur and Gaya• pManifold’s projected Levelised InputPrice range matches closely with goodprice discovered DF bids.5/24/2013 © pManifold. All rights reserved. 10Your Strategic Partner to all Market, Bid and Site Intelligence, early PartnershipsDevelopment and Technical + Financial Bid preparationFinal Bid Recommendations forsample DF bidHidden4
  11. 11. • 6300+ customers primary survey across 3 states ofMS, MP and Orissa for 5+ new starting DFs, bothUrban and Rural (completed as on Dec. 2012)• Quantify, measure and support improvements ofvery objective of DF, the ‘Customer Satisfaction’• Help prioritize initial Capex, setup PerformanceManagement for OperationsTeam and design PRcommunications & campaign• Door-to-door EUCOPS© survey of all socio-economic category of customers, across sampledElectrical Sub-divisions and zones.• High data integrity with use of Technology – GPS &camera enabled touch-screen mobile phones. Realtime survey form upload and download via GPRS.Customer Satisfaction Performance Monitoring (EUCOPS©)Measure Customer Expectations & PerceivedService Quality Experience and clientele5/24/2013 © pManifold. All rights reserved. 11Listen to your customers to improve and adapt service delivery for their best cooperation0%5%10%15%20%Power,Quality& ReliabilityCustomerServiceCommunicationMeter,Billing &PaymentPriceInformationAccess& RecHandlingCompany ImageWeighted CSI (Perception)Weighted Order (Expectations)Gap between Expectations& Perception of utility’sPerformanceSatisfaction Level across different divisionsKey Observationsn= 1027n= 340n= 345n= 342Order of ImportanceInferences drawn from GIS map may not be statistically relevant.HIGHLOWRelative Order of ImportanceZone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3Overalln= 1027FACTOR I: POWER QUALITY & RELIABILITY5/5/2012Copyright(c)pManifoldA1: Unplanned outages - How satisfied are you with frequency and duration of unplanned outages? Around 30% respondents from all 3 zones aredissatisfied with ‘Unplanned Outages’ As per customers comments, there is highproblem of ‘Unplanned Outages’ in areas of Zone 3 Number of client registered Log Complaints ishigher in Zone 3, matching above CSAT results7%40%53%L M H0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%VS S DS VDS NAZone 3Zone 2Zone 1OverallDownload EUCOPS Methodology here5
  12. 12. Integrated Customer Engagement Monitoring5/24/2013 © pManifold. All rights reserved. 12Helping Utilities to ‘Sense’ and ‘Engage’ with their CustomersIntegratedCustomerEngagementMonitoringCustomerRecordsLand surveyOnlinesurveyMobile SMSsurveyCustomerFacilitationCenterCollectionCenterCall CenterDistributionCenterCGRF andIGRFOnlineSocialMediaOfflineCampaignsStrategic Decisions | Roll-out Decisions | Operational DecisionsInformed decisions, in-time actionsSegmentation, Profiling Awareness, satisfactionBetter Customer EngagementCustomer AnalyticsDownload our Customer Engagement Approach here6
  13. 13. Baseline Prep & Bidders Engagement for DiscomsServices include ..• Bidding and RFP analytics of all previous DFs• Recommendations for improvement in baselinedata and RFP/DFA contract terms & conditions• Preparation of audited baseline data• Integrated Financial model for DistributionFranchisee and Licensee with sensitivity analysis tocritical RFP/DFA parameters• Setting Performance Monitoring Framework for DFs• Setting up and Managing Online bidding portal forincreased Bidders engagementViability modeling for Discom• We develop integrated Financial model forFranchisee and Licensee, with all key risksand transactions modeled for bothentities• Discom can validate RFP and DFAsuggested enhancements through test runon integrated financial model andimprovement over business-as-usualscenario5/24/2013 © pManifold. All rights reserved. 13Building strong Baseline data and model derive investment analysis for Discoms tohost successful DFBenefits of strong Baseline and effective Bidders Engagement in raising Power DFsStrong baseline, with Stakeholder EngagementInformation symmetry, enhanced competitionTimely handover & start of reform cycleTimely bidding processRationale bidding, no litigationCo-operation from DL, customer engagement,funding resolved by contract designTimely payment receipt, overallpositive DF performanceCo-operationprogression7
  14. 14. DF Deputation Policy Design & Employee EngagementPrimary Survey instrument Design• Respondent profile: years of service,designation, class, work areas, education etc.• Competence: responsibilities, key challengesfaced, suggestions, performance• Opinion: DF model performance, deputationwith DF, peers influence, adaptation to newsystem, work pressure handling etc.• Preferences for deputation selection: jobsecurity, job clarity, reporting line, facilities,work culture, salary, training, recognition,location etc.• Deputation Salary: awareness, additionalallowance criterion & min. expectations,special performance incentives criterion &frequency• Training: use of technologies in DF, learningpreference, training needs etc.• Feedback: comments, suggestions,clarification seeked etc.Clientele Benefits• Established and executed DiscomEmployees survey methodology, for anewly starting DF in MP, withrecommendations for appropriatechanges in the base deputation policy• One of its kind smoothest employeeengagement in DF history5/24/2013 © pManifold. All rights reserved. 14Understand Discom employees expectations & engage them rightly for DF rolloutTraining Preferences across different Employee ClassesTrainings Class I Class II Class III Class IV OverallAMR/AMI 3 0 5 0 8GIS Based Asset Management 1 1 0 0 2Distributed Energy Resources and μ-Grid 1 1 1 0 3Load flow Studies 1 4 2 0 7DTR Condition Monitoring 1 3 0 1 5Electricity Pricing and Tariff Determination 2 1 2 0 5Soft skills 0 1 0 0 1Smart Grid Communication 1 1 2 0 4Smart Energy Auditing 2 2 3 0 7Smart Grid Testing and Compliances 2 2 1 1 6Protection Systems & Protection Networking 1 3 2 1 7Open Access Systems 1 2 0 0 3ERP & IT Systems 1 1 2 0 4Leadership Programs 3 2 2 0 7Smart Grid Distribution Automation 2 3 3 0 8Smart Operation and Management 2 2 3 1 8DTR Smart Metering and DTR Analytics 1 2 1 0 4Field Analytics 0 1 1 0 2Demand Side Management Services 1 1 0 0 2Billing and Commercial Automation 2 1 4 4 1128 34 34 8 1048
  15. 15. India Utility Knowledge & Network Conference5/24/2013 © pManifold. All rights reserved. 15Challenges and Best Practices in operational Roll-outs of Power & Water FranchiseesDownload IUKAN 2013 Proceedings hereStrengthening DF ecosystem through.. Participation and Impact• Baseline and PPP Contract Designimprovements• Improving service delivery and employeesengagement through process improvement• Engaging Customers continuously to expediteloss reduction• Partnering with Service Providers to raiselight Capex & Managed services models• Enhancing confidence in Investors and raisingFinances for DFs• 210+ participants across all stakeholders -Govt., Discoms, ULBs, Private Operators, Newentrants, Service Providers, Regulators,NGOs, Investors, Customers, Consultants,Academics, R&D organizations and others• 35+ Speakers from World Bank, PowerMinistry, TRAI, PwC, MSEDCL, Bescom, TataPower, Enzen, Spanco, SPML, Schneider, ABB,Infosys, IBM, A2Z, Secure, SBI Caps, IDFC, IFC,CRISIL, PTC Financial Services and otherorganizationsPartners&SponsorsProceedings of IUKAN conference 20139Zee Business Television News Coverage
  16. 16. Strategic Task Force - STF STF works together with Owner and Owner’s organization to discover, define and drive strategic business initiatives Provides: Best practices, Strategic Inputs, Implementation hand holding, regular performance monitoringDF BusinessOrganizationBusinessOwnerpManifoldTeamViability & RevenueassuranceCommercial FactsfindingBaseline validationLegacy dataanalyticsPlanned OperationsStructure & StaffingSr. people on-boarding Employee deputationOperation Orgstructure & ProcessesrestructuringVendorsSourcingResourcing &DeputationProject Mgmt.DF Business Owner’s Key issues1. Finance: Worrying aboutfinancing the project, andkeeping Investorslined/interested2. Resourcing: Building aresourceful and competentsenior team, and overallresourcing/staffing3. Network & LossReduction: Areadetermination,Asset/Network mapping &Health diagnostics4. Deputation: Handling Discomdeputation of skilled Seniorand ground staff5. Data: Making sense of legacydata and records for usefulPerformance dip stick andreadiness to deploy yourbilling & vigilance for lossreduction6. Vendors: Selection ofvendors and preferablyengaging them on light capexand risk/return sharingmodels7. Customers &Stakeholders: oppositionagainst privatisation withransom protests/attacksBU HeadEfficient ProjectManagementWBS of keyactivitiesBudget & viabilitymappingRisk ManagementKnowledge &Network pool ofDF/Utility expertsVendors, ServiceProviders, InvestorsBaselineValidationOperationsStructurePerformancelinked VendorPartnershipsVendor Sourcing,SLAs, MonitoringLoss reductiondue diligenceGood StakeholderEngagementStakeholdersMapping & riskmitigationCommunications& EducationpManifold StrategicTask ForceEngagement Modelfor DF Takeover10
  17. 17. Let’s get intouch…Join us in our conversations at,PowerDistributionFranchiseeAT&CEfficienciesTrueDistributedGenerationPower DistributionFranchiseeCommunity of InterestConnecting talent & MakingLocal companies discoverablepManifold InsightsPremium & Free Reports,Presentations, and more…pManifoldCommunity BlogArticles, technical notes.Talk to us or drop by…Rahul Bagdia+91 95610-94490Rahul.Bagdia@pManifold.comFaiz Wahid+91 88056-55069Faiz.Wahid@pManifold.comIndia (Main office)Crystal Plaza, Level 2276 Central Bazaar Road,Ramdaspeth, Nagpur - 10Maharashtra, INDIAhttp://www.pmanifold.comUSA (Liaison Office)2020 Calamos Ct.,Suite 209Naperville,IL 60653, USAMr. Dinesh Jain+1 630-853-3520dinesh.jain@pManifold.comLet’s deploy our insights and actionsfor your business to improve and grow!5/24/2013 17© pManifold. All rights reserved.