CAPE UNIT 1 (ONE) GEOGRAPHY- POPULATION NOTES/SLIDES

CAPE UNIT 1 GEOGRAPHY-
POPULATION
ORAL JOHNSON

Population distribution
MR JOHNSON

 Population distribution: the way in which a population is spread over an
area. Population distributions are often shown by means of a dot map, where
each dot represents a given number of people.
 Population density: This is the average number of people per unit area.
Population density is usually expressed as the number of people per square
kilometer. Population densities are often shown by means of a chloropleth map
 Formula for calculating population density = Total population/ Area

 The distribution is uneven and there are often considerable changes over periods
of time. Population distributions are often shown by means of a dot map, where
each dot represents a given number of people.
 Population distribution is uneven throughout the world, at the global scale as
well as regional and local scales. Some part of the world is sparsely populated
while some are densely populated. At the global scale distribution is mainly
affected by physical opportunities and constraints. At the regional and local
scales distribution is more likely to be influenced by economic, political and social
factors. They can be further subdivided into human and physical factors

Factors that affect population distribution
on a global scale
 Population distribution on a global scale is uneven. These are due to a myriad of
factors which can be broken down into physical and human factors.

Physical Factors ( Climate)
 The impact of climate is very important. Unfavourable climate is the main reason
behind the world's empty areas.
 Half the world is almost uninhabitable because of climate difficulties.
 Temperature is an important factor to be considered in climate conditions
 It is obvious that wherever there are extremes of temperature, human life is
difficult to sustain, and consequently such areas are sparsely inhabited.
 The most appropriate examples where temperature affects population
distribution are polar regions, arctic and deserts

Climate ( too dry)
 Vast areas are too dry such as the Sahara (a hot desert in North Africa), Atacama
(desert in Chile), Kalahari ( desert in Southern Africa) and the Gobi (a desert in
Western China) for habitation.
 The hot deserts cover about 20 % of the worlds land surface, yet support only 0.4% of
the worlds population.
 The interior of Australia is largely uninhabited due to the presence of deserts. Seventy
percent (70%) of mainland Australia consists of Semi-Arid and arid deserts. There are
about 10 major deserts there. These area deter human settlements hence they are
sparsely populated.
 N.B. The expansive deserts are associated with the belts of high atmospheric pressure
30 degrees north and south of the equator where sinking air prevents condensation,
cloud formation and precipitation.

Major deserts of the world- these areas are
sparsely populated

Climate (too cold)
 Areas such as the Arctic, Antartic, vast areas of North America and Siberia are too cold
for much permanent habitation.
 In the polar zones long and very cold winter nights and low intensity of solar radiation
even during the summer make living conditions extremely difficult
 The soil is frozen for most of the year so it prevents any infrastructural development
and agricultural activity. It has been estimated that 6.4 million square miles of the
earth are too cold for cropping
 Conversely areas with no temperature extremes tend to be more suitable for
settlements and will have a high population density. In addition the rainfall is reliable
and evenly distributed throughout the year and there is lengthy growing season so
these areas are densely populated. For e.g. the tropics and the temperate zone.

Altitude
 Altitude also affects population distribution. The Environmental Lapse Rate ( ELR) is
the expected decrease in temperature with an increase in height. It is 6.5 degrees
Celsius for every 1000m
 The number of people generally decreases with height above sea level.
 High altitude in general imposes an ultimate physiological limit upon human existence
due to reduced atmospheric pressure and low oxygen content. Therefore, very few
permanent settlements can be seen in the lofty mountains of the world at a height
above 5,000 metres.
 There are exceptions, in hotter climates higher altitudes may be an advantage because
they are cooler. Hence there are several capital cities at high altitudes e.g. La Paz (
3640m) , Quito ( 2580m) and Mexico City ( 2355m)

Altitude
 Statszewski did a analysis on vertical population distribution. He concluded that both
numbers and densities decline with increasing altitude.
 56.2% of the world’s population lives between 0 and 200 m above sea level ( 27.8%
land area) and 80% living below 500m above sea level ( 57.3% of the land area). In the
UK 80% of the population lives below 100m above sea level
 Therefore the Himalayan, Alps, Rockies and Andes Mountain ranges which are over
3000m will have little or no persons. In fact some are totally uninhabited.
 It has been estimated that high mountains, which generally tend to discourage human
settlements, occupy more than one million square miles of the earth's land surface

Relief
 Relief features which affect human habitation are general topography, slope and
aspect
 The main concentrations of human population are confined to the areas marked
with flat topography. Rugged and undulating topography restricts the
condensation of human population in any area
 Low lying plains ( flat topography) it is easier to construct infrastructure and
communications ( road, railways etc) and the soils are normally deep and fertile.
These areas encourage high population densities e.g. The plains of Jamaica ,
plains of North America and Europe and the Ganges Valley in India, Nile valley in
Africa, Hwang Ho Valley and Yangzte Valley in China

Relief
 Conversely where the terrain is mountainous, rugged and steep restrict areas,
settlement and cultivation and results sparsely populated areas. E.g. Andes, Alps,
Himalayas, Rockies, Blue Mountains, John Crow Mountains, Cockpit country
 Conditions that comes with steep slopes
-Steep slopes make the use of machinery difficult
-Steep slopes also makes it difficult to build houses, roads and railways
-Soils on steep slopes are normally thin and is not suitable for farming

Water Supply
 Areas with regular water supply will tend to attract a large population. Areas
where rivers are situated normally are densely populated areas.
 Rivers usually attract people because they provide a water supply, irrigation,
transport and for fishing purposes
 Ninety-six percent (96%) of Egypt’s population lives along the Nile on just 4% of
the land available in the whole country
 400 million people live in the Ganges River Basin, making it the most populous
river basin in the world
 The Ganges, Brahamputra, Nile, Yangzte, Hwang Ho ( yellow) rivers are densely
populated areas across.

Water supply
 In addition these rivers have rich soils ( alluvium- river deposited silt) and will
support faming there will contribute to the high population densities
 In desert areas also where people resides are normally near water sources ( oases
and aquifers)
 Many communities in Jamaica have sprung up close to water sources Constant
spring, Golden Spring, Black river etc
 Kingsley Davis in his writing about the distribution of population in pre-partition
India on the basis of the 1941 census “the region's population is heavily
concentrated in the well-watered river and coastal plains”

Natural Vegetation
 The only vegetation type which itself repels human settlement is rainforest. The
forest is dense and creates a difficult environment to exploit. Areas such as the
coniferous forests of northern Eurasia, northern Canada and the rainforest of the
tropics are sparsely populated.
 The amazon rainforest in South America is sparsely populated as it is too thick
and dense to exploit
 The soils of the equatorial rainforest are some of the most infertile soils in the
world due to the fact that its highly leached.
 Areas of grassland tend to have higher population densities than places with
dense forest or desert.

Soils
 Similarly, the quality of soils exerts an undeniable influence on the distribution of
world population
 Areas which have good quality soils will tend to have a high population densities.
 Deep humus filled soils, Fertile deltaic and alluvial soils supports a dense
population. Thus, most of the major concentrations of populations in the world
are located in the river valleys and deltas.
 The Ganges delta in India, The Nile Delta in Africa, The Gwang Ho valley in Asia
are examples which supports high population densities

Soils
 The chernozems of the temperate grasslands also supports high population
densities. Rich volcanic soils can also supports dense populations
 Great civilizations of the world have almost invariably flourished on good fertile
alluvial soils ( Mesopotamia)
 Conversely Thin, unproductive or damaged soils cannot produce high yields so
fail to support a large population. For example, The Soils of the Sahel, The
leached soils of the rainforest, The acidic soils of the northern coniferous forest

Human Factors (Natural Resources)
 Location of natural resources has led to dense population concentration in many
parts of the world, which otherwise do not provide suitable conditions for human
habitation
 Large towns have grown up in inaccessible and extremely inhospitable areas such
as deserts, Polar Regions or in the midst of forests where precious minerals and
metals have been found. Examples are oil reserves in Alaska, Libya and the Middle
east. The settlements are supported by modern technological developments and
by external supplies of water food and clothing.
 Kalgoorlie, a gold mining town in the Australian deserts, is a very good example
in this regard

Resources
 All over Northern Canada, where the climate is cold and difficult, towns such a Port
Radium and Grand Rapids have sprung up around mineral deposits or energy sources
 Areas which have natural resources tend to have a high population density. Mandeville
in Jamaica grew because of the presence of the precious mineral Bauxite. There is the
provision of jobs so people tend to migrate to these areas. Areas devoid of resources
will have a low population density.
 Location of coal, the most important fuel in the nineteenth and early twentieth
centuries was the main factor behind the high population densities in Western
Europe
 London population also increased (from 1 mil in 1801 to 6.5 mil in 1911)

Communications
 Areas where it is difficult to construct and maintain transport systems tend to be
sparsely populated e.g. mountains and forests (the Amazon basin). Areas where it
is easier to construct railways, canals, roads and airports have attracted
settlements
 Rio de Janeiro has developed around a port and because of this and other factors
its one of the most densely populated areas in brazil.
 Caribbean Capitals developed becaused of there port functions, links between the
colonies and Britain

Economic Factors ( Availability of services)
 Urban areas tend to attract people as there are wide range of economic activities
available. In most countries most economic activities are concentrated in the
capital cities.
 These economic activities include wholesale and retail trade, manufacturing,
finance and business, and even Government and medical services. These areas
normally have a high population densities as it encourages migration from rural
areas within countries. Kingston in Jamaica is a good example

Availability of jobs
 Wherever jobs are situated there is a tendency for that area to have a high
population density. This means all areas where certain economic activities are
concentrated ( manufacturing and tertiary) will have a dense population.
Examples Montego bay, Kingston, Rio de Janiero, Shanghai. This will encourage
large movement from rural communities as jobs there sometimes are limited

Political Instability
 Civil wars in many countries have influence population densities as citizens
become refugees and migrate to different countries. Millions of Sudanese from
The Dafur region of Sudan were displaced.
 Millions of persons are moving from Syria now to European countries as a result
of civil war that started from 2011 killing about 200,000 people.
 4, 000, 000 people have fled Syria into nearby countries such as turkey, Lebanon
and Jordan. Now Syrians are targeting European countries as there next
destination.
 Civil wars in countries will contribute to lower population densities as people
become refugees and leave an area
 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34205186

Government Policy
 There have also been cases in which governments have influenced population
distribution patterns. The state may directly or indirectly decide to encourage
development in a particular area or region.
 Brasilia, the capital of Brazil is an excellent example. The capital was was
transferred from Rio De Janeiro to a site was nearer to the city centre of the
country to redistribute the population. It became the seat of government and
headquarters of major Brazilian companies. Population growth was explosive.
Planned for 500,000, the city is now home to 2 million people.
 Similarly India’s Capital which was once Kolkata now moved to Delhi has
significantly affect the population distribution there. Delhi is one of the most
densely populated areas in India.

Historical Factors
 historical processes should also be taken into account while explaining the
patterns of population distribution.
 Duration of human settlements is an important determinant of the magnitude of
population concentration in any area
 Most of the densely populated areas of the world have a very long history of
human habitation. Example Spanish town
 After partition of India, huge number of people settled in West Bengal.

Chinas population distribution
 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVADnguFKnI&index=6&list=LL7QfHasOOSf
SRjV3jEZiFEw

References
 http://www.yourarticlelibrary.com/population-geography/factors-that-affects-
population-distribution/43092/
 http://www.s-cool.co.uk/a-level/geography/population/revise-it/population-statistics-
and-distribution
 http://www.preservearticles.com/2011120518156/what-are-the-factors-affecting-
population-distribution.html
 https://books.google.com.jm/books?id=AUlcBSYe4SAC&pg=PT140&lpg=PT140&dq=
disadvantages+of+lorenz+curve&source=bl&ots=T1f6LUPTdH&sig=nI5uFMgenJ_8td
5weUvFwID3DZg&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0CFYQ6AEwCWoVChMI-
a3lrKnuxwIVyJ6ACh0FrgxJ#v=onepage&q=disadvantages%20of%20lorenz%20curve&
f=false

Methods of depicting
population distribution
MR JOHNSON

DOT MAPS
 Population distribution is represented by a dot map. Dot maps usually display
counts with each dot representing a specific value. They allow the reader to
identify areas with higher or lower concentrations of people.
 In areas with a higher population frequency dots are more numerous and widely
spread.
 It is visually very effective in identifying and locating variations in population
distribution.

Steps in the construction of dot maps
showing population distribution
1. Create a base map of Barbados showing the boundaries of the parishes in pencil
2. Decide on the graphical size of the dot. Bear in mind the maximum and minimum number to be
shown and the size of the map. A stencil could be used to ensure that the dots are of equal size.
3. Careful consideration must be given to the value of the dot. The largest and smallest
population should be taken into consideration. The dot value must be able to represent both.
E.g. if the population of a parish in a country is 1000 ( maximum) and the smallest population is
100 if you choose a dot value of 250 then there will be NO dot/s to represent it
4. Calculate the number of dots needed for each parish and insert them in the appropriate parish
on the map.
5. Consult topographical maps and other information to assist with the placing of the dots in the
appropriate places in the parish.

the dot value and dot size should be of extreme importance because if the dot value
is too small or big, or the dot size is too small or big it will distort the map and it will
give inaccurate information.

Advantages of a Dot Map
 It is intuitive in associating the number of dots with number of people
 It has a strong visual impact
 It can recover original data from the map by counting dots
 Manual placement of dots takes into account the distribution of other
phenomena, such as agricultural land use, mountainous terrain
 References or implications can be made based on the clustering of the dots. If an
area have a large amount of dots this means that it is densely populated and then
one make implications whether it is an urban area with lots of jobs, good soil etc.

Disadvantages of a Dot map
 If dots form too dense of a pattern- visual overlap- it is impossible to recover
original data values.
 The poor choice of dot size can distort the accuracy of the map
 The poor choice of dot value can also distort the accuracy, too small a dot value
may create clustering, while too large a dot value may result in blank spaces
appearing unpopulated.
 It is difficult to count large number of dots

LORENZ CURVE
NB On the Y
AXIS it
should be
cumulative
area
NB On the X
AXIS it
should be
cumulative
population

The Lorenz curve
 The Lorenz curve is a graph which represents inequality. It may be used to show
inequality in the distribution of population, income, food, medical care and many
other assets.
 When representing population distribution, population, shown on the x-axis, is
plotted against area on the Y. Both are plotted from 0 to 100 percent.
 If the population were evenly distributed, then 20% of the population would
inhabit 20 percent of the area, 75% of the population would inhabit 75% of the
area
 The relationship would be linear and the result would be a straight line

Lorenz curve
 However this rarely occurs as it has been shown that some areas are more
attractive to settlement than others
 The Lorenz curve commonly show this unevenness
 THE GREATER THE DISTANCE OF THE CURVE FROM THE DIAGONAL LINE THE
GREATER THE INEQUALITY IN DISTRIBUTION

Area and population of parishes of
Barbados

Steps in constructing Lorenz curve
1. Calculate the percentage population and percentage area for each parish
2. Order the parishes by decreasing size of population

Steps in constructing the Lorenz curve
cont’d
3. Set up axes for a graph for values 1-100 per cent, with the x-axis showing the
cumulative percentage of the population and the y, the cumulative percentage of the
area ( columns 2 and 4 in the previous slide)
4. Plot each variable according to its cumulative percentage population (x) and
cumulative percentage area (y)
5. Join the points plotted to form a smooth curve

Advantages of the Lorenz curve for
displaying population inequality
 It provides a visual representation of inequality of population distribution
 It is sufficiently simple that it can be compared across countries and be easily
interpreted.
 It does not matter how large the population of a country is
 It does not consider the size of the country

Disadvantages of the Lorenz curve for
displaying population inequality
 The Lorenz curve may not give an accurate picture of actual inequalities if the
resources of the area are unevenly distributed
 Populations of similar size may have dissimilar shaped curves
 It can only be analysed in terms of cumulative percentages
 The measure will give different results when applied to different levels of data, for
example, constituencies instead of parishes.

Factors that affect birth rate,
fertility rate and natural increase
MR JOHNSON

Birth rate
 Populations change naturally because of the relationship between number of
persons being born ( the crude birth rate) and numbers dying ( the crude death
rate)
 The birth rate refers to the number of live births per 1000 of the population in a
given year.
 Birth rates of 30 and above are considered to be high. Birth rates of less than 18
per 1000 are considered low.
 Countries with a high birth rate are normally developing countries ( in Africa) and
low birth rate in developed countries ( UK, Germany, Sweden)

9 of the countries in
the world with the
highest birth rates are
in Africa.
The developed
countries have
very low birth
rates.

The countries again
with the highest birth
rates are in Africa.
Choropleth map showing
birth rates

fertility rate
 The fertility rate is the average number of children that a woman is expected to
have throughout her child bearing years ( 15-64)
 In a country with a total fertility rate of two, a woman would have, on average,
two children during her lifetime.
 Countries with high fertility rate are characteristic of developing countries while
low fertility are developed countries.
 The replacement fertility rate-the total fertility rate at which women give birth to
enough babies to sustain population levels. It is 2.1

The majority of countries
with the highest fertility
rates again are in Africa.
Singapore a well
developed nation
has one of the
lowest fertility
rates in the world

Countries with
the highest
fertility rates are
in Africa

Factors that affect birth and fertility rates
 Demographic structures ( Age-sex structure)
The age sex composition of a population is important. Areas with large numbers of
young adults are expected to have high birth rates.

Average age of marriage
 Women normally had fewer children when their age a marriage is 25 or older .
 In the UK today the average age when people get married is now 30 years old.
 More women are now following their careers for longer and delaying having
children.
 In contrast in Hindu culture it is traditional for girls to marry about the age of 16
and give birth to at least 10 children

Importance of children as a part of the
labor force
 Children are seen as assets rather than a economic burden.
 children can be seen as an economic resource in developing countries as they
can earn money ( children begin working at an early age to help the family)

Where in the world are children
toiling dangerous and dirty
conditions, missing out on
education and other basic rights?
A new report by risk analysis firm Maplecroft,
which ranks 197 countries, identifies Eritrea,
Somalia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Myanmar,
Sudan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Zimbabwe and
Yemen as the 10 places where child labor is most
prevalent

High infant mortality rate
 In areas with high infant mortality rates birth rate is high as women produce more
hoping the others will survive.
 There tends to be a close relation between high levels of mortality and fertility-
the need for people to have large families to ensure that some survive

Government policy
 Government policies can influence the birth rate of a country. In some countries
there maybe cases where the population is too high or where the population is
decreasing. There are many problems that comes with both situations
 Some countries have put in place policies to control or limit the birth rates. These
are called anti natalist policies. The China’s one child policy is an example of this.
It has estimated that the one child policy has averted about 400 million births
 Singapore also implemented anti natalist policies and its fertility rate is now one
of the lowest in the world

Government policy
 Conversely some countries which have a declining population have adopted
other policies which encourages family to have more children. These are term pro
natalist policies.
 France adopted this policy. France Fertility rate is now the second the highest in
Europe (1.9)

Religion
 The Muslim and catholic religions encourage large families. Traditionally they
actively oppose any form of contraception and hence countries dominated by
these religions tend to have high birth rates. E.g. Eire, Algeria

Social customs
 Some countries in the world practice polygamy. The men are polygamous
meaning they can have more than one wife.
 This is evident in many African countries ( Sudan, Senegal, Kenya, Niger). It is very
popular in Western Africa
 One of the reasons why this has happened is because the African societies have
managed to see that children were a form of wealth and this way a family with
more children tend to be more powerful
 Akuku Danger has managed to become famous thanks to the fact that he was
married with over 100 wives and approximately 210 children
 In Arab nations as well men are polygamous

Education of women
In general countries with high levels of education have lower birth rates and smaller family
sizes due to:
-Knowledge of birth control.
-Greater social awareness of the benefits of smaller families.
-Higher incomes and a desire for more material possessions.
 An improving in education raises the status of women and postpones the age of
marriage subsequently reducing birth rate.
 A survey of young mothers in Brazil showed that women with secondary education
had on average 2.5 children whereas those without such education had 6.5.

Women education cont’d
 Generally women who have education will tend to have fewer children as they are
more career oriented.
 In some countries especially in Africa women are only seen as child bearers and
these areas tend to have a higher fertility and birth rates.
 evidence is accumulating that single most important factor affecting high total
fertility rates is the low status of women in many societies

Family planning
 In some countries couples fertility rates are high either due to lack of family
planning measures, no access to contraceptives due to poverty, lack of
knowledge of contraception which stems from lack of education, disapproval of
husbands and opposition of religious group
 The lower the use of contraceptives the higher the fertility and birth rate
conversely the higher the use of contraceptives the lower the birth and fertility
rate.
 Countries with low quality family planning services tend to have high birth rate
and fertility rate.
 In Niger the country only allocate a tiny proportion of the budget to family
planning. A large amount have no access to contraceptives

Family planning
 Recent statistics show that 860 million women of child bearing age in developing
countries have a need for modern contraceptives. Of that total 645 million have
access to them. But a staggering 220 million still do not and

In 2011 the Guttmacher institute
released a report in which they
surveyed women in developing
countries to find out exactly why
their need or modern
contraceptive methods was still
unmet they focused on three
regions: sub Saharan Africa, south
Central Asia and south east Asia
which account for almost 69 % of
the unmet need in developing
world

Cost of raising children
 Rates tend to be lower in developed countries, where raising children is much
more costly because children don't enter the labor force until their late teens or
early twenties.
 In the United States it costs about 290000 to raise a middle class child from birth
to age 18.
 Overall the basic cost of raising a child in the UK from birth to the age of 21 has
increased to by 63 per cent since 2003, when the survey was first carried out,
to £229,251 at present

Availability of legal abortions
 Availability of legal abortions (according to the UN and World Bank an estimated
26 million legal abortions and 20 million illegal (and often unsafe) abortions are
performed worldwide each year among the roughly 190 million pregnancies per
year.

References
 http://womennewsnetwork.net/2012/05/29/afghanistan-large-families/
 http://edition.cnn.com/2013/10/15/world/child-labor-index-2014/
 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/average-cost-of-raising-a-
child-in-britain-rises-to-230000-9994271.html

Factors that affect death
rate
MR JOHNSON

Death rate
 The death rate is the total number of deaths per 1000 of the population.
 Generally mortality rates are higher in less developed than more developed
regions.
Infant mortality rate - The number of deaths before the age of 1, per 1000 live births
per year
Life expectancy: The average age that someone is expected to live within a country.
Generally women tend to live a few years longer than men.

The diagram to the left show
the World infant mortality rates.
Some of the countries with the
highest rates are in Africa
Conversely in developed
regions it is low

Factors that affect death rates
Conflicts and Wars
 In countries which there are political instability and there are lots of civil wars and
civil unrest the death rate tend to be high.
 Millions of persons are moving from Syria now to European countries as a result
of civil war that started from 2011 killing about 310,000 people.

Demographic structure
 Countries or areas within countries where the age structure is top-heavy where
there is a high proportion of an aged person will have generally high death rates.
These are areas with an aging population which have a large portion of their
residents over 65.
 Japan has over 50,000 persons over 100 years old and its inevitable these aged
persons will die contributing to the death rates seen in the developed world.

Medical care
 The better the medical services and supplies, the lower will be the death rates. A
general guide to the extent of medical facilities is the ratio of doctors to patients
within given areas.
 On an average, developed countries have fifty times more doctors to patients
than do developing countries. Several countries in Central Africa are so badly off
that there is only one doctor to every 70,000- 90,000 people.
 In developing countries the health sector is not well developed. In Jamaica there
are shortages of doctors, nurses and hospital beds.

Cont’d
 India practices inoculation against smallpox from 1920 and the death rate fell.
Number of hospitals worldwide has increase since the end of World War 2
 Many countries have immunizations, antibiotics, vaccines available for residents
and this improvement health care will eventually reduce the death and infant
mortality rates.

Poor hygiene and poor sanitation
 Worldwide, 780 million people do not have access to an improved water
 An estimated 2.5 billion people lack access to improved sanitation (more than
35% of the world’s population)
 According to the World Health Organization and UNICEF, regions with the lowest
coverage of "improved" sanitation in 2006 were sub-Saharan Africa (31%),
Southern Asia (33%) and Eastern Asia
 Lack of sanitation now affects about 40 percent (2.4 billion) of the world’s
population and is expected to rise to 50 percent by 2025.
 In developing countries 80 percent of all disease results from a combination of
poor hygiene, contaminated water and poor sanitation.

Cont’d
 Already half of Asia’s population lacks adequate sanitation and in China, India and
Indonesia twice as many people die from diarrhoeal diseases as from HIV/Aids.

Levels of infectious disease
 An estimated 801,000 children younger than 5 years of age perish from diarrhea
each year, mostly in developing countries.
 This amounts to 11% of the 7.6 million deaths of children under the age of five
and means that about 2,200 children are dying every day as a result of diarrheal
diseases
 Unsafe drinking water, inadequate availability of water for hygiene, and lack of
access to sanitation together contribute to about 88% of deaths from diarrheal
diseases

Levels of infectious diseases cont’d
 Among the diseases resulting from poor sanitation, unclean water and poor waste
disposal and insufficient hygiene practices are dysentery, cholera, typhus fever,
typhoid, schistosomiasis and trachoma, Guinea Worm Disease
 In mali about 30% of the population has no access to potable water, which is the
cause of many diseases. The infant mortality rate is particularly high in Mali, with
191 deaths for every thousand births

The AIDS epidemic
 Disease can also affect death rates and also life expectancy. The prevalence of
aids has drastically reduced the life expectancy of certain nations particularly in
Africa
 In the nine countries with the highest adult HIV prevalence all in sub Saharan
Africa, the average life expectancy was predicted to be 47 years in 2009 whereas
it might have been 58 years in the absence of AIDS .
 In the world's 49 poorest countries, mainly in Africa, life expectancy is 55 years or
less. In many African countries life expectancy is expected to fall further
because of increased deaths from AIDS.

cont’d
 Life expectancy at birth in Botswana fell from 65 years in 1990-1995 to 40 in
2000-2005. The epidemic is also spreading rapidly in Asia

Poor diet ( nutrition)
 Many parts of the world people do not have access to food. Many persons are
malnourished and undernourished and this have resulted in deaths especially
among infants
 Malnutrition disproportionately affect those in sub-Saharan Africa. Over 35
percent of children under the age of 5 in sub-Saharan Africa show physical signs
of malnutrition
 In mali malnutrition is the number one cause of infant mortality.

references
 http://www.cdc.gov/healthywater/global/assessing.html
 http://www.cdc.gov/healthywater/global/wash_statistics.html
 http://www.publishyourarticles.net/knowledge-hub/articles/what-are-the-factos-
affect-death-rates-in-a-country/3055/
 https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2002/04/san-a18.html
 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diseases_of_poverty
 http://www.humanium.org/en/mali/

Natural increase
 The natural increase is the difference between birth rate and death rates.
 Increases or decreases in the population resulting from migration are not
included
 When looking at countries, it gives an idea about how much a country is growing,
the population growth rate should be observed
 Usually developing countries have a positive or high natural increase rate.
Developed countries have a negative/neutral or low natural increase rate.

Cont’d
 Most European countries have low growth rates. In the United Kingdom, the rate
is 0.2%, in Germany it's 0.0%, and in France, 0.4%. Germany's zero rate of growth
includes a natural increase of -0.2%. Without immigration, Germany would be
shrinking, like the Czech Republic.
 The Czech Republic and some other European countries' growth rate is actually
negative (on average, women in the Czech Republic give birth to 1.2 children,
which is below the 2.1 needed to yield zero population growth). The Czech
Republic's natural growth rate of -0.1 cannot be used to determine doubling time
because the population is actually shrinking in size

Calculating natural increase
 The formula for the rate of natural increase is ( Crude birth rate- crude death
rate/10).
 The result is the rate of natural increase in percentage form.
 For example the birth rate in Jamaica in 2009 was 20.4 per 1000 and the death
rate was 6.4. Its rate of natural increase was 14 per 1000. Divide this by 10 the
answer is 1.4%.

Population
will decline if death
rate is greater than
birth rate.
Population
will increase if death
rate is less than birth
rate.

Doubling Time
 It is useful to know how quickly a population is growing. One method is to
calculate its doubling time.
 The doubling time is the number of years it takes a population to double itself ig
the present growth is maintaine.
 This can be roughly estimated by dividing 70, the natural logarithm of 2 by the
percentage growth rate:
T= 70/k ( growth rate as a percentage)
Jamaica with a growth rate of 1.4 percent will have a doubling time of 70/1.4 = 50
years.

Implications
 Increased population growth generally represents problems for a country - it
means increased need for food, infrastructure, and services. These are expenses
that most high-growth countries have little ability to provide today, let alone if
population rises dramatically.

References
 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rate_of_natural_increase
 http://geography.about.com/od/populationgeography/a/populationgrow.htm
 http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/gcsebitesize/geography/population/population_ch
ange_structure_rev3.shtml

The Demographic Transition
Model
MR JOHNSON

The demographic transition model
 The demographic transition model describes a sequence of changes over a
period of time in a relationship between birth and death rates and overall
population change.
 The model based on population changes in several industrialized countries in
Western Europe an birth America suggests that all countries pass through similar
demographic transition stages or population cycles it will do, given time.
 It was developed by a British Demographer in 1929 by the name of Warren
Thompson

The Demographic
transition model

Stage 1- High stationary
Here birth rates and death rates fluctuate at a high level (about 35 per 100) giving a small
population growth Birth rates are high because
 No birth control or family planning
 So many children die in infant that parents tend to produce more in the hope that
several will survive
 Many children are needed to work on the land
 Children are regarded as a sign of virility
 Some religious beliefs ( Roman Catholics, Muslims and Hindus ) encourage large
families
(UK pre 1780)

Stage 1 Cont’d
High death rates especially among children are due to
 Disease and plague ( bubonic , cholera , kwashiorkor )
 Famine uncertain food supplies poor diet
 Poor hygiene : no piped clean and water no sewage disposal
 Little medal science few doctors, hospitals , drugs

Stage 2 ( Early expanding)
birth rates remain high but death rates fall RAPIDLY to about 20 per 1000 people giving a
rapid population growth.
The fall in death rates results from:
 Improved medical care, vaccinations , hospitals, doctors, new drugs and scientific
interventions
 Improved sanitation and water supply
 Improvements in food production both quality and quantity
 Improved transport to move food, doctors
 A decrease in child mortality
- (UK 1780-1880) - Sri Lanka, Kenya, Egypt are in this stage

Stage 3 (Late expanding)
birth rates now fall RAPIDLY to perhaps 20 per 1000 people, while death rates
continue to fall slightly ( 15 per 1000 people) to give a slowly increase population .
The fall in birth rates may be due to:
 Family planning contraceptives , sterilization , abortions and government
incentives
 A lower infant mortality rate leading to a less pressure to have so many children
 Increased industrialization and mechanization meaning fewer laborers are needed

Cont’d
 Increase desire for material possession ( car , holidays , bigger homes) and less
desire for large families
 An increased incentive for smaller families
 Emancipation of women, enabling them to follow their own career than being
solely child bearers.
- UK ( 1880-1940) - China and Brazil are in this stage

Stage 4 low stationary
Both birth rates 16 % per 1000) and death rates (12 % per 1000) remain low,
fluctuating slightly to give a steady population
- UK post 1940 - Japan, UK, USA and France are in this stage

Stage 5 maybe??????
 Will there be a star 5 where birth rates fall below death rates to give a declining
population? Some evidence suggests that this might be occurring in several
Western European countries)
 Germany and Italy

Limitations/criticisms/disadvantages of the
model
 Birth rates in several of the most economically developed countries have since
the model was put forward fallen below death rates. This has caused for the first
time, a population decline which suggests that perhaps the model should have a
fifth stage added to it
 The model being more or less Eurocentric assumed that in time all countries
would pass through the same four stages. It now seems unlikely however that
many of the economically less developed countries will ever become
industrialized.

Cont’d
 The model assumed that the fall in death rate in stage 2 was the consequence of
industrialization. Initially the death rate in many British cities rose due to
unsanitary conditions which resulted from rapid urban growth and it only began
to fall after advances were made in medicine
 The delayed fall in the death rate in many developing countries has been due
mainly to their inability to afford medical facilities .
 In many countries the fall in birth rate in stage 3 had been less rapid than the
model suggests due to religious and or political opposition to birth control (
Brazil ) whereas the fall was much more RAPID and came earlier in China
following the government introduced one child policy

Cont’d
 The timescale of the model, especially in several South-East Asian countries such
as Hong Kong and Malaysia, is being squashed as they develop at a much faster
rate than earlier industrialised countries. The UK stayed in stage 2 for over 100
years as social, economic and technological changes were introduced slowly and
death rate fell slowly. In many LEDCs, death rate has fallen more rapidly because
changes (i.e. the introduction of western medicine) have taken place much more
quickly. The birth rate has stayed high and so the population has increased
rapidly.

Cont’d
 The model does not include the impacts of migration. Countries that grew as a
consequence of emigration from Europe (e.g, USA, Canada & Australia) did not
pass through the earlier stages of the model

Watch these videos
 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dK3mL35nkk#t=26
 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzxREH08EkI&list=LL7QfHasOOSfSRjV3jEZiF
Ew&index=13

Pro-natalist and Anti-
natalist Policies
MR JOHNSON

Reasons why France adopted a Pro-
natalist policy
 France had a low fertility rate and a falling birth rate. An increasing proportion of
France’s population is now over the age of 60
 there are fewer economically active people and even fewer people having
children
 This presents an economic problem as the economically active people must pay
taxes towards the pensions of the older population and towards social care, which
helps care for the elderly.
 Currently, over 21% of France’s population is over 60 and it’s predicted that by
2050, ⅓ of the population will be over 60.

Cont’d
 Today, 81% of women in France are employed. Women are now focusing on their
careers rather than on raising families, resulting in women putting off having
children until they’re 30 or deciding to just not have children, especially middle
class women.
 In order to combat the falling fertility rate, France has employed an aggressive
pro-natalist policy which employs a system of monetary incentives and rewards
for women giving birth to multiple children

France Pro- natalist Policiy
In 1939, the French passed the “Code de la famille”, a complex piece of pro natalist
legislation. The pro natalist methods in the policy included:
 Offering cash incentives to mothers who stayed at home to care for children.
 Subsidising holidays.
 Banning the sale of contraceptives (repealed in 1967).

Incentives included
 Incentives offered in the policy included:
 Payment of up to £1064 to couples having their third child.
 Generous maternity grants.
 Family allowances to increase the purchasing power of three child families.
 Maternity leave on near full pay for 20 weeks for the first child to 40 weeks or more for
the third child.
 100% mortgage and preferential treatment in the allocation of three bedroom council
flats.
 Full tax benefits to parents until the youngest child reaches 18.
 30% fare reduction on all public transport for three child families.

Incentives cont’d
 Pension schemes for mothers/housewives.
 Child-orientated development policies e.g. provisioning of creches, day nurseries etc.
 Depending on the family’s income, childcare costs from virtually nothing to around
€500 a month for the most well off of families.
 Nursing mothers are encourage to work part-time or take a weekly day off work
 France spends around $40 billion a year on family care ‘carte famille nombreuse’
which allows 30% off trains and half price on metro as well as free entrance to
swimming pools and other amenities. The 'carte famille nombreuse' is a high (large
family card), giving large reductions on train fares

Success
 Frances fertility rate has risen from 1.67 in 1992 to 1.98 today and, whilst this is
still below replacement level, it indicates that the code de la famille is raising the
fertility rate as desired even though it is still below the replacement fertility rate.

China’s One Child Policy
MR JOHNSON

During the 1940’s the Chinese
government encouraged people
to have large families, to gain
military strength and for the
people to help with agricultural
production

Overview
 This led to overpopulation in China
 Between 1953 and 1964 the population increased by 112 million
 1953 - First modern census takes place in China. The population
comes in as 583 million
 Attempts to slow down population growth were started in the
1970s using the slogan “Later, longer, fewer”. People were
encouraged to limit families to two children.
 1979 - One child policy introduced.

Reasons for the policy
 Combat population explosion.
 Imbalances between population and available resources. China has 7% of the world’s
agricultural land and 23% of the world’s population.
 To encourage economic development
 Improving the standard of living for the population

Mechanisms of the policy
 Cash bonuses, improved housing and free education/medical care if couples limit
themselves to one child.
 Guaranteed work, guaranteed pensions
 Free birth control and family planning advice. 80 percent of China’s women had access
to contraception
 The marriageable age for men was set at 22 and for women at 20 with couples having
to apply to the state for permission to marry and later to have a child
 Anyone housing more than one child lost benefits and faced financial penalties
(generally 3× their salary).
 In urban areas, the policy has been enforced strictly but remote rural areas have been
harder to control.

Mechanisms of the policy
 Work places and homes were subjects to visits, from family planning officials and
the infamous granny police would try to ensure that families under their charge
did not break the rules.
 Couples who had more than one child was subjected to economic penalties,
women pregnant for the second time have to do abortions, sometimes quite late,
persistent offenders might be offered sterilization

Exceptions to the policy-
 The Han are allowed a second child if the first is mentally or physically
handicapped or died
 In many rural areas, farmers could have a second child if the first born happened
to be a girl ( although girls did a large proportion of the farm work, the were
considered to be less useful for working in the fields). If the the second child was
also a girl, then hard luck!
 Han people living in some rural areas could have a second child on payment of a
large fine imposed by individual provinces
 Minority groups, most of whom live in outlying provinces such as Yunnan, were
allowed two children or if the area was very remote ( with fewer officials to keep a
check) up to four

Exceptions to the policy
 As the first single-family children are now reaching marriageable age, if two
only ‘ children’ marry then they can have two children
 In the event of twins the state paid the extra cost

The policy was a success
 Total fertility rate has declined from 6.2 in 1950 to 1.6 in 2009, which is below
replacement level.
 The rate of natural increase has declined to 0.5% from 2.2% in the 1970s.
 It is estimate that without the policy there would have been an extra 400 million
Chinese people born between 1970 and 2009

Problems of the One Child Policy
 Gender imbalance: Ratio of 117 males for every 100 females among babies from
birth through children of four years of age. Normally, 105 males are born for
every 100 females. By 2020, an estimated 30 million men will be unable to find a
wife and have a child earning them the title “Bare branches”. Today it is thought
that men outnumber women by more than 60 million.
 Sex selective abortion – people aborting the baby if it was not the sex they
wanted, usually aborting girls after not getting the boy.
 “Little emperor Syndrome”- Boys are treated very well girls are badly treated-
abandoned unloved. There is a sharp increase in the number of orphans
particularly girls. It is estimated that there are between 40 to 60 million ‘missing
females’

Problems of the one child policy cont’d
 The 4-2-1 problem which summarizes the strain on one child to provide for four grand
parents and two parents
 High divorce rates involving women whose child turns out to be a girl, as the men
want to try with another woman for a boy. ( it has been reported that men beat their
wife until the agree to a divorce)
 Civil unrest in rural areas- Opposition in rural areas, where stronger requirements for
sons to work in fields, continue family name and look after parents in their old age,
exist
 Women pregnant for a second time often COERCED into having an abortion or
sterilisation particularly during the early years of the policy. This against human rights.
In 2000, it was reported that 90 per cent of fetuses aborted in China were female.

Population change-
migration
O.JOHNSON

Introduction
 Migration is the movement from one place to another usually across a politically
boundary.
 It may be permanent, temporary, forced, voluntary
 These movements have significant consequences for population change of town,
cities and nations.

Types of migration
 Migrations can be voluntary or forced.
 Voluntary and forced migration can be subdivided into internal, external (
international), temporary and permanent

Forced Migration
 Forced migration is unintended movement resulting from conflict, development
policies, projects and disasters
 Many persons have fled their country due to religious/political persecution and
are now refugees.
 There are more than 25 million internally displaced persons (IDP) worldwide
 More than half of them are in Africa-Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo
(DRC), Uganda and Angola
 There were about 2.8 million IDP in Iraq in 2008, many of whom had fled to
Bagdad to safer zones in the far north , south and west of the country.

Cont’d
 The slave trade between Africa and the New World was an example of Forced
External Migration
 The volcanic eruptions in Montseratt forced many people to leave their homes for
foreign countries

Voluntary Migration
 This is the free movement of individuals or groups from their homes
 Voluntary migration may be internal and such movement may be temporary (
daily commuters) or permanent relocation
Circulation- The movement between home and work is referred to as circulation.
There is no permanent change in address. Example persons commuting from
Portmore to Kingston to work.
Internal Migration: Migration within a country e.g. Kingston to Montego Bay

Cont’d
 Rural-urban migration: This is a type of internal migration. It is the movement of
people from rural areas (the countryside) to urban areas (towns and cities). This is
more common in developing countries
 Urban-rural migration This is a type of internal migration. It is the movement of
people from urban areas (towns and cities) to rural areas ( countryside). This is
more common in developed countries and is also termed COUNTER-
URBANISATION.

Cont’d
 Temporary Migration: Migration for a limited period, this might only be for a few
weeks or even several years. Circulation is internal temporary migration.
 migrants such as Caribbean farm workers go to Canada to harvest crops return at the
end of their contracts.
 Tourists are also temporary migrants leaving their homes to seek leisure and
relaxation. But they are fully intent on returning to their place of residence.
 Students who pursue their studies in other countries and return after their course of
study are also temporary migrants
Permanent Migration: Migration with the intention of staying forever.

Cont’d
 International/External Migration: Migration between countries e.g. El Salvador
to US. The large scale movement from the Caribbean to Britain in the 1960’s; to
USA and Canada are examples of external or international migration

Migration Patterns
 Step migration- This occur when migration occur in small steps, each taking them
closer to their intended destination. They may move from a small farm to a
nearby town, then to a city and finally to a foreign country.
 Chain migration- is a series which may begin with one family member who sends
money to bring family members to a new location. This process leads to a
clustering of people from specific locations in neighbourhoods o the towns in
which they settle. These clusters are referred to as migration fields.

Causes of migration
 People migrate for a variety of reasons. This can be broken down into push and
pull factor.
 Push factors are negative factor that occurs within the place of origin and
influences migration. Push factor encourages emigration
 Pull factors are positive factors that occurs within the receiving or place of
destination which tend to attract migrants to the location. Pull factors encourages
immigration

Other migration terms
 Emigration- This refers to when persons leave an area. They are called emigrants
 Immigration- This refers to newcomers coming into an area. They are called
immigrants.
 Migration balance- The migration balance is the difference between the number
of emigrants (people who leave the country) and immigrants (newcomers arriving
in the country).

Cont’d
 Countries with a net migration lost more through emigration than they gain by
immigration and, depending upon the balance between birth and death rates
may have a declining population .
 Countries with a net migration gain receive more by immigration than they lose
through emigration and so are likely to have their population increase

Economic, Social and
Environmental Impacts of
International Migration on
MR JOHNSON

Consequences Of Migration On The Host
Country
Economic Impacts
Positive
 Migrants take up less desirable, menial jobs which natives would not take but
need filling ( skill gap is filled)
 The host country can gain skilled labour for cheap.
 There is a labour surplus; those with skills and education fuel the economy (
Gross Domestic Product goes up)
 Increase tax base ( government revenue rises)
 Costs of retirement can be transferred to the country of origin.

Economic
Negatives
 Migrant children must be educated, they won’t necessarily speak the native
language of the host country ( this can be costly for the country
 There is an over dependency in some industries on migrant labour, leading to a
lack of jobs for people native to the host country.
 Much of the money earned by the migrants isn’t spent in the host country and is
instead sent back to the country of origin.
 More people increase the pressure on resources and services such as health care
systems. The government would bear this cost

Social Impacts
Positive
 More enriched and diverse culture
 People from other countries can encourage the learning of new languages,
helping people develop skills for working internationally.
 The destination country is exposed to new cuisines and other services from the
migrants. For eg polish shops and restaurants

Social
Negatives
 The dominance of males is reinforced (due to the large number of male migrants),
especially in cultures where women already have a low status.
 Aspects of cultural identity are lost, especially in second generation children.
 Segregated ethnic areas are created e.g. China Town. Schools become dominated by
migrant children.
 Increase unemployment (Locals can miss out on job opportunities because of
increased competition from migrants)
 Friction and racism can develop between the host population and the migrant groups

Environmental
Negative
 Generally increases the pressure on the environment as more space is needed for
housing, resources for industry, roads.
Positive
In an under populated country the increase in population can lead to a better use of
natural resources and therefore improved quality of life.

Consequences Of Migration On The Country
Of Origin
Social Impacts
Positives
 Population density is reduced and birth rate falls as it’s the younger population
who migrates. This can help ease overpopulation as there is reduce pressure on
the countries natural resources such as food and water.
 Remittances sent home by economic migrants can be used to finance improved
education and health service.
 Returning migrants increase social expectations for communities, for example,
increasing demand for better leisure facilities.

Social
Negatives
 Marriage rates fall and family structures break down as men migrate producing a
generation of single mums.
 Lots of young people migrating out of the country can increase the dependency
ratio.
 Returning retired migrants may increase social costs on the community as
support mechanisms aren’t in place for them.
 There are often gender imbalances, as it is often males and the young who move
leaving the elderly and females.
 Unemployment rate falls as persons migrate

Economic Impacts
Positive
 Migrants can send money back to the country of origin (known as remittances)
which is a form of foreign exchange for that country. Some countries are
dependent on remittances mostly developing. E.g. remittances made up 42% of
Tajikistan's GDP
 Upon return, migrants bring new skills to the country (brain gain). These
persons may start to invest by setting up enterprises or businesses which can
help to improve the economy.
 There is less pressure on resources such as food and social services such as
health care. This mean less pressure is put on the government to provide these
services ( so less money spent on these)

Economic
Negative
 The most skilled ( nurses, doctors, teachers) and young move – this is known as a
“Brain Drain” which can badly affect public services and the economy. This slows
economical development of the country
 There is less money raised in tax revenue ( smaller tax base)
 Inhabitants depend on remittances from the people who have emigrated ( Barrel
Children). Even though remittances can have a positive effect, these persons are
not working ( not paying tax)
 Gross domestic product decreases

Environmental
 Migration can ease pressure on natural resources if the population was
overpopulated

References
 https://geographyas.info/population/migration/
 http://mashable.com/2014/11/18/country-gdp-remittances/#Ic6h9_Yvzkq2

Poland to UK Migration
MR JOHNSON

Introduction
 On the 1st April 2004 Poland was one of ten countries admitted to EU.
 8 of the 10 were Eastern European – A8 (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czech
Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia & Hungary)
 The other two were Malta and Cyprus
 By law any resident of an EU nation has the right of free movement amongst all of
the other member states.

Cont’d
 The Polish embassy estimated the number of Poles in the UK to be between 500
and 600 thousand - This would mean the Poles would be the third largest ethnic
minority in the UK after Pakistanis and Indians.

Reasons for the Migration
Push factors ( In Poland)
 Average unemployment in Poland of 18.5% in 2005
 Youth unemployment of around 40%
 Rural unemployment is some areas of over 40%
 Poor living conditions
 Low salaries
 Poor public services and other facilites

Cont’d
Pull Factors ( In UK)
 Unemployment in the UK at 5.1%
 Skill shortages along with high demand for skilled and semi-skilled labour
 Vacancies in the UK for Oct-Dec 2007 were 607,900
 GDP in Poland was $12,700 per head compared to $30,900 in the UK – average
earnings
 UK were one of only three countries who did not restrict the numbers of
immigrants from the A8 countries (the other two being Eire and Sweden)
 An average Polish worker could earn five times the amount he could in the UK
compared to what they could earn in Poland

Impact on UK
Economic ( Positive)
 ₤2.5 billion contributed to the economy by eastern European immigrants.
(Between .5% and 1% of UK growth in 2006 attributed to these workers many of
whom are poles.
 New migrants typically hard working, enthusiastic, skilled and flexible. Poles will
often work for less and are very hardworking and productive
 They filled a skills gap because they take on undesirable low paid jobs. Jobs that
people in UK refuse to do. Poles have filled gaps in admin, hospitality, catering,
construction and agricultural labouring.

Cont’d
 It is estimated that 87,500 builders will be required in the next 5 years to meet the
demands of new construction. Many of the builders will come from Poland
 Migrants reduce the dependency ratio. Eighty percent (80%) of migrants between
18 and 35 years old. The migrants contribute to National insurance and help UK
cope with aging population
 Increase tax base- £1.9 billion a year is made from Poles paying taxes and
National Insurance ( NI)
 Polish shops and businesses have helped to start and rejuvenate the seriously
declining shopping streets of the UK

Economic cont’d
Negative
 It is estimated that £4billion is lost from the UK economy as this the money is
sent back to Poland
 The UK government have to employ more doctors, nurses and teachers. This will
cost the government

Social
Positive
 Scotland’s Birth rate has increased as a result of immigration. 1 in 5 babies are
born to parents from Poland, Latvia and other EU accession nations. The majority
are born to Polish parents
 The catholic church has seen increasing congregations as many of the Poles are
devout catholics.
 Some rural areas such as East Anglia have seen enormous growth from migrants.

Cont’d
Negative
-additional stress has been placed on the education and health care systems
 36,000 dependants have been brought to the UK. Children require schooling which
can put pressure on class sizes and resources (EFL teachers)
 27,000 child benefit applications have been approved. This comes at a time where
child benefits are being withdrawn from parents earning over £40,000 per annum.
 Dental and medical services struggling in some areas to meet the demands of an
increased population
 Some areas in UK have never experienced migration before so there is cultural tension
in some areas. Anti-Polish graffiti has appeared on the streets of a number of UK
cities.

Environmental
 Added on pressure is placed on natural resources. The influx of migrants have
resulted in the development of new infrastructure in the UK which affects the
environment

Impacts on Poland
Economic
 Money is sent home to families which boosts their income and helps the
economy of Poland. It is estimated that £4billion is sent back to Poland every
year
 Many Poles have gained skills that will make them more employable when they
return to Poland. Poles who are able to speak English fluently are much more
employable on their return to Poland

Social
Positive
 Majority of the returning poles are able to speak English fluently
 Since 2004, Poles have been migrating to UK. This has reduced unemployment in
Poland,

Social Cont’d
Negative
 The young and active have left – 82% of migrants are between 18 and 34.
 People who have more skills or are educated are more likely to leave. To some
extent a brain drain has occurred. A qualified nurse will earn more money in the
UK doing agricultural work than nursing in Poland.
 Poland’s divorce rate has doubled in the past 7 years. This has been attributed to
long-term absence of partners and for returning Poles, a decline in the standard
of living, which puts an added strain on relationships.
 Lower tax base from declining population

Reference
 http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-25403892
 http://www.revisealevel.co.uk/subjects/geography-1/geography-2/human-
geography/unit-1-changing-populations/12-migration-case-study-poland-to-
the-uk/

Population Structure and
Dependency ratio
MR JOHNSON

Population structure
 Structure refers to the age and sex balance in a population
 It can be displayed in a population or age- sex pyramid

•A population pyramid is a graph that allows us to see the
gender and age structure of a population.
•The population structure of a country is best illustrated by a
population into 5 year age groups (0-4 , 5-9 , 10-14 ) in the
vertical scale and into males and females on the horizontal scale
•The number in each group is given as a percentage of the total
population and is shown by horizontal bars. With makes located
to the left and females the right of the central axis
•As well as showing past changes , the pyramid can predict both
short term as long term future changes in population . the
population pyramids also shows the effects of migration , the
age and sex of migrants and the effects of large scale wars and
major epidemics of disease .

Cont’d
 A pyramid which shows migration will have a wider bar
typically on the males sides and also between the ages of
20-34 age groups as migrants are mostly male.
 The population pyramid can also shows which stage of the
demographic transition model a country is in
 The pyramids vary from the short broad based shapes of
youthful populations in LDCs to the long, narrow, top heavy
shapes of aging population in MDCs.

Example of
a
population
pyramid

Interpretation of population pyramids
There are some critical aspects of the pyramid:
1) Shape: This refers to the overall slope created by the shortening
bars. It may be:
 Concave that is decline rapidly with age
 Even steep slope- True pyramid-shape
 Straight especially at the base- shortening slowly
 Convex- Bulging in the middle and towards the top
 Inverted- wider towards the top

Cont’d
2) Base to Height ratio: Generally the base reflects the birth
rate and the height the life expectancy
 Wide base indicate high birth rate and short height indicates
a low life expectancy
 Narrow base and lengthening height reveal falling birth rate
and longer life expectancy
 Narrow Base and tall height may indicate a very low birth
rate and a very long life expectancy

Cont’d
3) Relative size of 16-65 age groups: This is the economically
active part of the population. Its size relative to the over 65
and under 15 would indicate the size of the dependency ratio,
that is, those who have to be supported. It can also suggest the
future BR.
4) Differences in male and female population by age group:
Males may be missing ( shorter bars) as a result of war or
migration. Females may die in child birth

Population Structure in Less developed
countries ( LDC’s)
 Generally the population structure of LDCs is marked by a higher
proportion of young persons with a sharp decline in numbers at
increasing age ( some countries have approximately 25% of their
population under 15)
 These pyramids have a broad (wide bases) because of high birth
rates and each successive bar decreases because of high death
rates.
 Life expectancy may be as low as 50 years in some LDCs
 These countries may have a high youth dependency ratio
 This structure is sometimes referred to as the youthful one

Cont’d
 These countries have a rapidly growing population and their doubling times are
less than more developed nations. This will ultimately affect their rate of
development
 There may be sex inequalities in the population structure depending on migration
patterns. Some may be sending countries for example, Guyana and Jamaica.
Therefore they may have missing males or females of working age.
 Wars and high maternal mortality ratio also result in sex inequalities.

Cont’d
 There is great variety of population structures within the LDCs. At one
extreme, poorer countries such as Papua New Guinea have very young
populations while more developed LDCs, like Barbados have aging
populations
 Differences in culture, religion and status of women, along with levels of
poverty, account for these differences in population structure
 HIV/AIDS in Sub- Saharan Africa has reduced some life expectancy in
some countries to 40-50 years.
 Most Caribbean countries would be considered as having a youthful
populations, although there is some variation among countries.

These countries have a typical concave shape which shows a
broad base ( high birth rate), high death rate and low life
expectancy

Implications for the future
 A high percentage of young dependents means more money is spent on
child healthcare and education. Schools cannot cope and young girls are
less likely to be educated so birth rates remain high.
 Over time, more young people move into adulthood and become
parents. Many are unemployed because the number of jobs can not
keep pace with the population increase. This can result in crime
 As the youngsters reach their mature working age, the national
economy must be able to provide jobs for them or else their frustration
may break out in civil disorder. In Mexico for example a million people
enter the labor force annually

Cont’d
 Limited resources will be stretched to meet the needs of a large number of dependent
children for schooling, nutrition and health care
 As this group reaches child-bearing age, it is likely that fertility rates will be high, leading
to continued high rates of natural population increase.

Population structure in MDCs
 The population structure in more developed countries tend to show a
narrow base reflecting lower birth rates and a relatively small proportion
of its population under age 15.
 The base is narrow which indicates a low birth rate, the fertility rate is
sometimes below replacement
 The apex of the pyramid tends to be broader than those of less
developed countries because life expectancy is high.
 Medical care is available from cradle to the grave ensures low infant
mortality rates and long lives
 Germany and USA with high immigrant populations have more complex
population structures

Cont’d
 For example, males may outnumber females in the working
age group as this is typically the migrant group
 Migrants may have higher birth rates than the resident
population as a result of cultural differences
 In some developed countries there is a bulge in 40-45 age
cohort as a result of the “baby boomers” of the 1960s

Cont’d
 some MEDCs actually have declining populations where there are
not enough children being born each year to replace those
dying. Germany is experiencing a period of negative growth (-
0.1%). As negative growth in a country continues, the population is
reduced. A population can shrink due to a low birth rate and a
stable death rate.
 In both LDCS and MDCs, women outlive men, so that the
population structure after 60 is almost always imbalanced in
favour of females

Zero Population growth
 The population pyramid can also show zero-growth.
 This means that birth rates and death rates cancel each other
out.
 In this case, the age-sex pyramid is more like a column than
a pyramid, and people are distributed evenly throughout the
cohorts

Implications for MEDCs
 An increasingly ageing population causes stagnation and, sometimes,
population decline.
 The numbers forming the economically active group have started to
shrink
 Having more old dependents increases the burden on the economically
active because of the increasing costs and strain on pension schemes,
health care, home care services and sheltered housing and the need for
greater public transport.
 Plans will have to be made for retirement and pensions, care for elderly
and geriatric health facilities

Cont’d
 Having fewer births and less young dependents may result in the
closure of schools and maternity wards.
 It may be necessary to raise the retirement age to compensate for
the lack of economically active people or to raise taxes for those
still in work.
 Encouraging immigration ( importing labour) is a solution to
increase the number of people in work but can bring other social
problems. (The USA began making changes in the social
security program in 1983 by increasing taxes and raising the
age of retirement with full entitlement)

Developed and Developing Country

Dependency ratio
CALCULATIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Basics
 It is often useful to divide population pyramids into 3 distinct age groups or
COHORTS- 0-15 or the Young, 16-65 or the working age and 65+ as the retired
sectors of the population
 Knowing the percentage of people in these sectors can allow us to calculate a
Dependency Ratio.
 The dependency ratio of a country suggests how many of its people are in
productive years.
 This is the ratio between those of working age and those of non-working age
 The no-working age are known as DEPENDENTS because they depend upon the
working age people to provide for their needs

Formulas
Dependency Ratio = Young Population (0 - 14) + Old
Population (65+) / Population Aged 15-64 * 100
Youthful dependency ratio = Young Population (0 - 14) /
Population Aged 15-64 * 100
Old age population = Old Population (65+) / Population Aged
15-64 * 100

Calculations
 For example, data given for country P, dependency ratio=
20,595 (dependent population)
38, 497 ( economically active)
Dependency Ratio = Young Population (0 - 14) + Old Population (65+) / Population
Aged 15-64 * 100
20, 595/ 38, 497 * 100 = 53.5%

Implications
 A high dependency ratio means there are less people in jobs (
smaller tax base) making money and paying taxes to provide
for those too young or too old to work.
 A higher dependency ratio indicates that more of the
population is reliant on the working population.
 Young dependents will need money spent on education
whereas old dependents may need more expensive health
services especially as people are living longer and medical
advances are increasingly costly

Cont’d
 The dependency ratio can be cause by a large youthful population or large
elderly population.
 A high dependency will result in a diversion of resources from development
projects to support the dependent population
 High dependency ratio can be offset by importing labour ( encouraging
immigration), increase taxes on the already dwindled economically active age
group and also increasing the age of retirement ( UK have increased their
retirement age from 65 to 67)

Cont’d
 A low dependency ratio means that the country will be
better able to benefit from its economic production
without having to divert resources to support those who
are not economically active.

Aging and youthful
population
MR JOHNSON

Aging population
-This is when a country has a large number of people over the age of
65 in their country.
OR
-A rise in the median age of the population usually associated with
an increase in old dependents
In 1950 there were 205 million persons aged 60 or over in the world
by 2012, the number of older persons had increased to almost 810
million. It is projected to more than double by 2050, reaching 2
billion

Causes of Aging population
- High life expectancy caused by
 Good medical care
 Good diet and improved water supply
 Good sanitation and hygiene
- Low birth rate caused by
 Emancipation of women
 Cost of children
 Family planning
 Increase in the age of marriage

- Baby Boom
 In some countries there was a rapid increase in the birth rate after the world war (
1940s). These persons are now over 60 and 65. This baby boom is a contributory
factor to some aging populations now. E.g. UK, Japan

Problems of an aging population
 There may be a shortage of workers (not enough economically active)
 If there is a shortage of workers there are less tax payers and the government receives
less money
 Cost of providing health care- Old people tend to get more sick, so there will be an
increase in pressure on hospitals
 Cost of paying for pensions- (In many countries retired people can claim pensions off
the government. If there are a lot of old people this can be very expensive.)
 The government has to provide places in care homes or provide services so people
can care for themselves at home e.g. meals on wheels
 Reduced spending on education, policing, transport network etc.
 Service Decline ( Schools, sport centres etc. are not used by older residents

Solutions to an aging population
 Increase the retirement age. In the UK the retirement age has increased from 65 to 67
 Increase the amount of tax charged to economically active.
 Introduce private healthcare, so that the government doesn't have to pay ( BUPA)
 Encourage people to have private pensions so that the government does not have to
pay (AVIVA)
 increased immigration of the economically active age group could reduce the
dependency ratio
 Have a pro-natalist policy so that birth rates and the number of young people increase
( Singapore)

Youthful Populations
 This is when a country has a large number of people under the age of 15 in their
country.
or
 A fall in the median age of the population usually associated with an increase in
young dependents

Causes of Youthful Populations
High birth rates caused by:
 Lack of family planning
 No education about contraception
 High infant mortality ( have more hoping some will survive)
 Primary based economy ( children needed to work on farms)
 Tradition and status for having large families ( prestige)
 Religion
 Social customs ( men are polygamous)
 Immigration of young dependents

Problems of Youthful populations
 Cost of Child care and education
 Young people get sick so the government has to pay for healthcare
 An increase in the dependency ratio
 Creation of teaching and nursing jobs
 Increased cost of child benefits paid by the government
 Shortage of workers ( in the short term)
 Spending diverted from transport, defense etc

Solutions to a Youthful population
 Anti-natalist policy ( China’s One Child Policy)
 Increased immigration of economically active population
 Privatised education ( remove cost from the government)
 Privatised healthcare ( remove cost from the government)
 Reduced birth rates ( family planning, contraception etc.)
 Reduced infant mortality rates ( people then normally have less babies)
 Greater care of old dependents ( less children needed to take care of the elderly)
 Ensure females are educated and emancipated

Population and Resources
O.JOHNSON

Population density
 Population density describes the number of people living in a given area,
usually square kilometre or square mile.
 It can be calculated by dividing the number of people in an area by its size in
square units (total area) .
 The densities are then grouped into classes, each of which is coloured lighter or
darker to reflect greater or lesser density.
 Population densities are often shown by means of a choropleth map.
 Countries with large populations do not necessarily have high densities.

Cont’d
 Canada's population of 33 million, divided by the land area of 3,559,294 square
miles yields a density of 9.27 people per square mile. While this number would
seem to indicate that 9.27 people live on each square mile of Canadian land area,
the density within the country varies dramatically - a vast majority lives in the
southern part of the country.
 Density is only a raw gauge to measure a population's disbursement across the
land

Cont’d
 The tiny country of Monaco has the world's highest population density. With an
area of 3/4 of a square mile and a total population of 32,000, Monaco has a
density of almost 43,000 people per square mile.
 However, since Monaco and other microstates have very high densities due to
their extremely small size, Bangladesh is often considered the most densely
populated country, with more than 2,200 people per square mile.
 Mongolia is the world's least densely populated country with only 4.3 people per
square mile. Australia is a close second with 6.4 people per square mile.

Cont’d
N.B
density reflects intensity concentration of people; while distribution is related
to spatial location. Densities are said to be high or low; hold distributions are
even or uneven.

Choropleth maps
 Choropleth maps use intensity of shades of the same colour or line shading to
reflect differences in density of population.
 This gives an immediate visual impression - the darkest shade represents the
highest population density, lightest shade the lowest density.
 The shade is uniform over each division within the given density. Ideally no
more than five shades should be used in any one map

Merits/Advantages of Choropleth Map
 There is an immediate visual impression of spatial variation of density by shade
association. It is easy to identify the low and high population densities
 The actual density values can be identify
 There is an objective calculation of values

Demerits/Disadvantages of the
Choropleth map
 There is a sharp sudden change in density at boundaries which give a false
impression of change
 Population density in ANY ONE area/division is not uniform throughout, some
areas might have a low while others have high densities. The choropleth map
makes the density looks uniform in a division or area, this is not the case
 A poorly designed system of colouring or shading can make quite spatial
differences seem large or make huge differences look smaller.

Under, Optimum and Over
populations
MR JOHNSON

Natural and Human Resource
Natural resources- Materials or substances occurring in nature which can be
exploited for economic gain.
E.g. forest, a mineral deposit, or fresh water, coal, oil, natural gas, wind energy, wood
Human Resources- The resource that resides in the knowledge, skills, and
motivation of people

Renewable and non renewable resources
 Renewable resources- Any resource that CAN be replaced or replenished
naturally through the passage of time. Renewable resources is always available
naturally, it is practically inexhaustible.
 consists of solar energy, wind energy, water ( hydroelectricity) , biomass and
geothermal energy
 Non- renewable resources- Any resource that CANNOT be replaced or
replenished naturally through the passage of time. THEY WILL RUN OUT SOME
TIME
 consists of coal, oil and natural gas

Overpopulation
 Overpopulation is a condition where there are TOO MANY PEOPLE living in a
nation or area relative to the resources that exists in the area

Cont’d
 Bangladesh and Ethiopia are often said to be overpopulated as they have insufficient
food, minerals and energy resources to sustain their populations.
 They suffer from localized natural disasters such as droughts and famine and are
characterized by low incomes, poverty, poor living conditions and often a high level of
emigration.
 This should not be confused with either large populations or high population densities
since some densely populated countries are able to use their resources to provide for
a high standard of living.
 However if the country is unable to meet the basic needs of the population, with
widespread famine and a low standard of living, then it may be overpopulated that is,
there would be too many people for the resources of the area .

Underpopulation
 Under population is where there are TOO FEW PEOPLE living in an area to
efficiently exploit and use the natural resources within that area
 (e.g. Northern Canada has huge mineral wealth but too few people to
exploit those minerals because of climatic constraints)

Optimum population
 The optimum population of an area is a theoretical state in which the
number of people, when working with all the available resources will
produce the highest per capita economic return I.e. the highest standard of
living and quality of life . If the size of the population increases or decreases
from the optimum, the output per capita and standard of living will fall
 Optimum population is an ideal situation for any government. It occurs when
there is a balance between the population size and the amounts of resources
available

Cont’d
 The reality of achieving optimum population is difficult because of two main
reasons
1) Population is not static but dynamic, population can increase or decrease over
time
2) Resources can increase or gets depleted. Technological changes and
advancements have allowed for the exploitation of natural resources that might
not have been previously available.

Carrying Capacity
 The carrying capacity is the largest population that a particular ecosystem can
carry or support

Factors influencing changes in carrying
capacity
Any change in the population or resources in an environment will change the carrying
capacity. These changes maybe short term or long term
 Population size- an increase in the population by natural increase or immigration will
increase the demand for resources and affect the carrying capacity. Conversely if the
population is decreased the demand would be lessened.
 Environmental resistance- changes in the environmental conditions such as food
availability, natural disasters, diseases, climatic change will all negatively impact
carrying capacity.
 Resource innovation- development and increased efficiency can all increase the
carrying capacity of the environment. Technological advancements have increased
resources in many areas e.g. agriculture. If resource increases then it can support a
larger population

Models
 Three models portray what night happens as a population growing
exponentially approaches the carrying capacity of the land
 1. The rate of increase may be unchanged until the ceiling is reached, at which
point the increase drops to zero. This is highly unlikely situation is unsupported
by evidence from either human or animal populations.

Model 2
 2. Here more realistically the population increase begins to taper off as the
carrying capacity is approached, then to level off when the ceiling is reached. It is
claimed that populations which are large in size have long lives and low fertility
rates conform to the S" curve pattern.

Model 3
 3. In this instance the rapid rise in population overshoots the carrying capacity-
e.g. famine and reduced birth rates- which causes dramatic fall in the total
population.
 After this the population recovers and fluctuates around and eventually settles
down at the carrying capacity. This J curves appear more applicable to
populations that are small in number and have short lives and high fertility levels

References
 http://www.coolgeography.co.uk/A-
level/AQA/Year%2012/Population/Population%20&%20resources/Population%20
&%20resources.htm

Theories relating to world
population and food supply
MR JOHNSON

Thomas Malthus
 Thomas Malthus was a British demographer who believed that there was a finite
optimum population size in relation to food supply and that an increase in
population beyond that point would lead to a decline in living standards and to
eat famine and disease.
 He published his views in 1798.

Cont’d
 1. Thomas Malthus believed that the human population exhibits exponential
growth, which is when the increase is proportional to the amount already
present. An example of exponential growth would be if a population increased
from 2 individuals to 4, 8, 16, 32, and then 64 individuals
 2. Food supply at best only increases at an arithmetic rate
1-2-3-4-5-6. Malthus considered that this must be so because yields from a given
field could not go on increasing forever and the amount of land available is finite

Cont’d
 As a result of these differences in population and food growth rates, Malthus
predicted that the human population would eventually grow too large to be
sufficiently supported by the food available.
 Where population exceeds increases in food supply the exponential curve
meets the arithmetic curve.
 He suggested that after 5 years the ratio of population to food supply would
increase to 16:5 and after six years to 32:6. Once a ceiling had been reached,
further growth in population would be curbed by negative (preventive) or by
positive checks.

Preventive or negative checks
 Alternatively, the population could pre-empt the food shortages and so slow
their population growth keeping it within the limits of the food supply.
Remember Malthus was writing before wide spread contraception People
would make these decisions sub-consciously as food prices increased and
standard of living fell. The preventive check consists of voluntary limitations of
population growth.
 These methods include abstinence from or a postponement of marriage which
would lower the fertility rate.
 Here, as population starts to approach the limits of the food supply, so growth
slows. Malthus says this slowing is caused by delayed marriage

Here, as population starts to
approach the limits of the food
supply, so growth slows. Malthus
says this slowing is caused by
delayed marriage

Positive checks
 The positive check to population is a direct consequence of the lack of a
preventive check. When society does not limit population growth voluntarily,
diseases, famines and wars reduce population size and establish the necessary
balance with resources.
 Events such as famine, disease and war will all increase the mortality rate and
reduce life expectancy thus reducing the population size..
 According to Malthus, the positive check acts more intensively in lower classes,

Population exceeds food supply
and is kept in check by war,
famine, or disease. It then drops
below the food supply. As the
population recovers, so the cycle
continues

Esther Boserup
 Boserup, on the other hand, said that food supply would increase to
accommodate population growth.
 Boserup asserted that an increase in population would lead to increased
innovation and invention (Increased population pressure would lead to an
increased demand for food which would force increased productivity and
efficiency). ‘
 Necessity is the mother of invention’. An increase in population would be an
incentive because it will enhance technological development. Technological
development is a determinant of demographic change.

Cont’d
 As a population found that they were approaching food shortages they would
identify ways of increasing supply whether through new technology, better seeds
and new farming methods
 Population change stimulated changes in agricultural systems leading for
example to agricultural pressure to change agricultural production. The growth of
population and agricultural output has spin off effects which will stimulate the
process of economic growth.
 That means, if you need it, someone will invent it. So if more food was
needed she wrote that people would invent ways of increasing food supply -
crops that fight diseases or survive with less water are examples of this.

In the graph you
can see that food
supply will increase
with population

Glossary of population
terms
MR JOHNSON

 Antinatalist Policy The policy of a government, society, or social group to slow
population growth by attempting to limit the number of births.
 Age-Sex Pyramid (Population Pyramid): a series of horizontal bars that illustrate the
structure of a population. The horizontal bars represent different age categories, which
are placed on either side of a central vertical axis. Males are to the left of the axis,
females to the right.
 Ageing Population: In the population structure of many MEDCs there is often a high
proportion of elderly people who have survived due to advances in nutrition and
care. This creates problems since these people do not work and have to be provided
pensions, medical care, social support, sheltered housing etc. from the taxes paid by a
proportionally smaller number of workers. In addition, an increasing number of young
people are employed as care workers for the elderly. This removes them from more
productive jobs within the economy and harms a country's competitiveness.

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