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Medical Science is difficult and messy 
Dave Shafer
It can be hard to distinguish 
cause and effect from constant 
conjunction. A rooster that 
crows every morning at dawn 
may think that he makes the 
sun come up, since they always 
happen together. There is 
much in medicine that is like 
that. Assumed cases of cause 
and effect may turn out to be 
nothing of the kind.
I have a sort of medical science joke – that sun 
screen lotion causes skin cancer. After all, since I 
was a kid the incidence of skin cancer is way up now 
and so, also, is the use of sun screen. I assumed until 
recently that this was a rooster/sunrise kind of joke.
Then I read something 
interesting recently – that 
cycling head injuries are 
way up and so also is the 
use of bike helmets. There 
are several reasons for this 
connection but one is that 
people wearing a helmet 
feel more safe and hence 
engage in more risky 
cycling. So there is a sense 
in which bike helmets 
cause head injuries.
In the old days, like when I was young, people 
would have enough sense at the beach to get out 
of the sun after a while. Now, with super-duper 
sunscreen blockage being advertised, people 
assume that they are safe and spend much more 
time than they should in the sun. The coverage 
can be incomplete, may wear off, may need to be 
renewed, etc. 
Who among 
us is going 
to be this 
thorough?
So, just as the increased use of bike helmets has partly 
caused more cycling head injuries by making people feel 
safer, the increased use of sun block lotion has increased 
the incidence of skin cancer. People stay out in the sun 
much too long, and are careless with incomplete coverage. 
Then I found out that it is more complicated than this 
and that there are ingredients in most sun block brands that 
may actually cause cancer. One is retinyl palmitate, which 
has been shown to cause tumors in mice. See this 2013 
report here from the NIH. 
http://ntp.niehs.nih.gov/ntp/htdocs/lt_rpts/tr568_508.pdf 
Some early ingredients of sunscreen have now been banned 
but retinyl palmitate is still common. New ingredients like 
nanoparticles of titanium dioxide are possibly carcinogenic 
and spray sunscreen uses a gas that is most definitely 
carcinogenic if breathed. The FDA does not regulate these 
products at all. 
Other chemicals used have been 
shown to be hormone disrupters 
and should probably not be used 
on children.
Even a very low level of sun screen rating blocks almost all of the sun’s vitamin D producing 
ability. There are many bad consequences of a vitamin D deficiency and unless you are big on 
fish oil the easiest way to get your daily dose of vitamin D is some time in the sun. Many kids 
today have vitamin D deficiency, partly due to parents having a phobia about any sun exposure. 
A study by the American Cancer Society showed that decreased exposure to the sun results in increased 
cancers – just the opposite of conventional wisdom. Here is the conclusion of one report. 
CONCLUSIONS: 
The results of the current study demonstrate that much of the geographic variation in cancer mortality rates in the U.S. can be 
attributed to variations in solar UV-B radiation exposure. Thus, many lives could be extended through increased careful 
exposure to solar UV-B radiation and more safely, vitamin D3 supplementation, especially in nonsummer months. 
Copyright 2002 American Cancer Society.
•© 2008 American Society for Clinical Nutrition 
Vitamin D deficiency: a worldwide problem with health consequences1,2,3,4 
1.Michael F Holick and 
2.Tai C Chen 
+ Author Affiliations 
1.1From the Department of Medicine; Section of Endocrinology, Nutrition, and Diabetes; Vitamin D, Skin and Bone Research 
Laboratory; Boston University Medical Center, Boston, MA 
Next Section 
Abstract 
Vitamin D deficiency is now recognized as a pandemic. The major cause of vitamin D deficiency is 
the lack of appreciation that sun exposure in moderation is the major source of vitamin D for most 
humans. Very few foods naturally contain vitamin D, and foods that are fortified with vitamin D are 
often inadequate to satisfy either a child's or an adult's vitamin D requirement. Vitamin D deficiency 
causes rickets in children and will precipitate and exacerbate osteopenia, osteoporosis, and fractures 
in adults. Vitamin D deficiency has been associated with increased risk of common cancers, 
autoimmune diseases, hypertension, and infectious diseases. A circulating level of 25-hydroxyvitamin 
D of >75 nmol/L, or 30 ng/mL, is required to maximize vitamin D's beneficial effects for health. In 
the absence of adequate sun exposure, at least 800–1000 IU vitamin D3/d may be needed to achieve 
this in children and adults. Vitamin D2 may be equally effective for maintaining circulating 
concentrations of 25-hydroxyvitamin D when given in physiologic concentrations.
The conclusion here is that even with something 
as simple as using sunscreen lotion it is very 
difficult to unravel what is cause and effect, what 
are the risks and benefits, and what data and 
advice can be trusted. Sunscreen products are a 
huge market and advertising is certainly not 
going to give you accurate information about 
risks. 
The current controversy about vaccines is 
even more complex to unravel. What is certain is 
that good hard science is needed to bring into the 
light all the risks and benefits of medical 
procedures so that both doctors and the public 
can make informed decisions. Unfortunately it is 
very expensive to do the kinds of controlled 
studies that are needed and so they are rarely 
done. The result is that huge numbers of people 
use sun screen (just one example) and get 
vaccines for years before good science is done.
Suppose there was a pill that you 
could take that reduced your 
chances of being hit by lightning by 
50% (admittedly a ridiculous idea). 
And suppose that there were some 
rare bad side effects of that pill. 
Would you take the pill after you 
realize that the chances of your 
getting hit by lightning are 
extremely low, so that a 50% 
reduction in your risk is hardly 
worth it? Especially if the rare bad 
side effects are more common than 
people being hit by lightning? That 
is the situation with some, but not 
all, vaccines. It is important to have 
this data in order to make informed 
decisions. 
In today’s world more people are injured by polio vaccine 
than are injured by polio. This is one extreme of the efficiency 
spectrum and both situations are extremely rare.
The main take-away message here is 
that we as consumers need to look out for 
our own health – the FDA and big 
pharmaceutical companies are not going 
to do it for us. Europe has banned some 
components of medicines that are 
common here in the US. Russia has 
kitchen microwave appliance microwave 
radiation emission standards that are very 
much tighter than what is required here. 
You do not have to be paranoid to feel 
that it is good to be skeptical about how 
much science is behind claims about 
health, nutrition, exercise, etc.

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Sun screen

  • 1. Medical Science is difficult and messy Dave Shafer
  • 2. It can be hard to distinguish cause and effect from constant conjunction. A rooster that crows every morning at dawn may think that he makes the sun come up, since they always happen together. There is much in medicine that is like that. Assumed cases of cause and effect may turn out to be nothing of the kind.
  • 3. I have a sort of medical science joke – that sun screen lotion causes skin cancer. After all, since I was a kid the incidence of skin cancer is way up now and so, also, is the use of sun screen. I assumed until recently that this was a rooster/sunrise kind of joke.
  • 4. Then I read something interesting recently – that cycling head injuries are way up and so also is the use of bike helmets. There are several reasons for this connection but one is that people wearing a helmet feel more safe and hence engage in more risky cycling. So there is a sense in which bike helmets cause head injuries.
  • 5. In the old days, like when I was young, people would have enough sense at the beach to get out of the sun after a while. Now, with super-duper sunscreen blockage being advertised, people assume that they are safe and spend much more time than they should in the sun. The coverage can be incomplete, may wear off, may need to be renewed, etc. Who among us is going to be this thorough?
  • 6. So, just as the increased use of bike helmets has partly caused more cycling head injuries by making people feel safer, the increased use of sun block lotion has increased the incidence of skin cancer. People stay out in the sun much too long, and are careless with incomplete coverage. Then I found out that it is more complicated than this and that there are ingredients in most sun block brands that may actually cause cancer. One is retinyl palmitate, which has been shown to cause tumors in mice. See this 2013 report here from the NIH. http://ntp.niehs.nih.gov/ntp/htdocs/lt_rpts/tr568_508.pdf Some early ingredients of sunscreen have now been banned but retinyl palmitate is still common. New ingredients like nanoparticles of titanium dioxide are possibly carcinogenic and spray sunscreen uses a gas that is most definitely carcinogenic if breathed. The FDA does not regulate these products at all. Other chemicals used have been shown to be hormone disrupters and should probably not be used on children.
  • 7. Even a very low level of sun screen rating blocks almost all of the sun’s vitamin D producing ability. There are many bad consequences of a vitamin D deficiency and unless you are big on fish oil the easiest way to get your daily dose of vitamin D is some time in the sun. Many kids today have vitamin D deficiency, partly due to parents having a phobia about any sun exposure. A study by the American Cancer Society showed that decreased exposure to the sun results in increased cancers – just the opposite of conventional wisdom. Here is the conclusion of one report. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the current study demonstrate that much of the geographic variation in cancer mortality rates in the U.S. can be attributed to variations in solar UV-B radiation exposure. Thus, many lives could be extended through increased careful exposure to solar UV-B radiation and more safely, vitamin D3 supplementation, especially in nonsummer months. Copyright 2002 American Cancer Society.
  • 8. •© 2008 American Society for Clinical Nutrition Vitamin D deficiency: a worldwide problem with health consequences1,2,3,4 1.Michael F Holick and 2.Tai C Chen + Author Affiliations 1.1From the Department of Medicine; Section of Endocrinology, Nutrition, and Diabetes; Vitamin D, Skin and Bone Research Laboratory; Boston University Medical Center, Boston, MA Next Section Abstract Vitamin D deficiency is now recognized as a pandemic. The major cause of vitamin D deficiency is the lack of appreciation that sun exposure in moderation is the major source of vitamin D for most humans. Very few foods naturally contain vitamin D, and foods that are fortified with vitamin D are often inadequate to satisfy either a child's or an adult's vitamin D requirement. Vitamin D deficiency causes rickets in children and will precipitate and exacerbate osteopenia, osteoporosis, and fractures in adults. Vitamin D deficiency has been associated with increased risk of common cancers, autoimmune diseases, hypertension, and infectious diseases. A circulating level of 25-hydroxyvitamin D of >75 nmol/L, or 30 ng/mL, is required to maximize vitamin D's beneficial effects for health. In the absence of adequate sun exposure, at least 800–1000 IU vitamin D3/d may be needed to achieve this in children and adults. Vitamin D2 may be equally effective for maintaining circulating concentrations of 25-hydroxyvitamin D when given in physiologic concentrations.
  • 9. The conclusion here is that even with something as simple as using sunscreen lotion it is very difficult to unravel what is cause and effect, what are the risks and benefits, and what data and advice can be trusted. Sunscreen products are a huge market and advertising is certainly not going to give you accurate information about risks. The current controversy about vaccines is even more complex to unravel. What is certain is that good hard science is needed to bring into the light all the risks and benefits of medical procedures so that both doctors and the public can make informed decisions. Unfortunately it is very expensive to do the kinds of controlled studies that are needed and so they are rarely done. The result is that huge numbers of people use sun screen (just one example) and get vaccines for years before good science is done.
  • 10. Suppose there was a pill that you could take that reduced your chances of being hit by lightning by 50% (admittedly a ridiculous idea). And suppose that there were some rare bad side effects of that pill. Would you take the pill after you realize that the chances of your getting hit by lightning are extremely low, so that a 50% reduction in your risk is hardly worth it? Especially if the rare bad side effects are more common than people being hit by lightning? That is the situation with some, but not all, vaccines. It is important to have this data in order to make informed decisions. In today’s world more people are injured by polio vaccine than are injured by polio. This is one extreme of the efficiency spectrum and both situations are extremely rare.
  • 11. The main take-away message here is that we as consumers need to look out for our own health – the FDA and big pharmaceutical companies are not going to do it for us. Europe has banned some components of medicines that are common here in the US. Russia has kitchen microwave appliance microwave radiation emission standards that are very much tighter than what is required here. You do not have to be paranoid to feel that it is good to be skeptical about how much science is behind claims about health, nutrition, exercise, etc.