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"Business as usual" baselines: Challenges for tracking NDCs by Andrew Prag


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Small Discussion Group 3a: presentation by Andrew Prag

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"Business as usual" baselines: Challenges for tracking NDCs by Andrew Prag

  1. 1. Climate Change Expert Group “Business as usual” baselines: Challenges for tracking NDCs Andrew Prag OECD Secretariat CCXG Global Forum on the Environment 16 March 2016
  2. 2. 2 Climate Change Expert Group Nearly half of INDCs rely on BaU baselines  So it is essential to understand BAU baselines to track global (and individual) progress Source: Own analysis based on Carbon Brief summary Reduction relative to BAU Absolute reduction Intensity reduction Peak Other Number of INDCs Approx. share of global GHG emissions
  3. 3. 3 Climate Change Expert Group Is there such a thing as business-as-usual? 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 8500 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 MtCO2 CO2 Projections: U.S. Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 1998 - 2012 AEO 1998 AEO 1999 AEO 2000 AEO 2001 AEO 2002 AEO 2003 AEO 2004 AEO 2005 AEO 2006 AEO 2007 AEO 2008 AEO 2009 AEO 2010 AEO 2011 AEO 2012 Actual Δ = 2600 Mt
  4. 4. 4 Climate Change Expert Group Expected level of global emissions depends on baseline scenariosHistoricalemissions Historicalemissions Historicalemissions ? Historical emissions Target year AbsoluteemissionstCO2e  Absolute emissions in the target year depend on assumptions and modelling of baseline pathway  Across multiple countries, difficult to understand expected global emissions outcome – 2C or not 2C? X% X%
  5. 5. 5 Climate Change Expert Group Challenges for understanding baselines in (I)NDCs  Currently no formal international guidance or process for setting baseline projections, nor for transparency on their substance  Scope, assumptions and modelling techniques are specific to country circumstances and capacities  Circumstances change – when should a projection be updated?  Mitigation policies affect emissions trajectories (hopefully!): Should existing policies be included in the baseline assumptions? What about planned policies?
  6. 6. 6 Climate Change Expert Group Areas where transparency is important  Modelling techniques employed  Scope (sectors, gases, starting year)  Assumptions on socioeconomic factors (GDP, population, energy prices, income distribution)  Data sources for emissions sources and emissions factors  Treatment of existing or planned climate policies  Expected cycle of revisions or updating  Use of sensitivity analyses  Use of public consultation or expert reviews
  7. 7. 7 Climate Change Expert Group Questions for discussion 1. What information is needed to “track progress made in implementing and achieving” NDCs expressed as reductions from BAU baselines? 2. What guidance would be most useful to facilitate transparency in tracking progress for this type of NDC (e.g. common guidance for setting and revising national baselines)? DEA-OECD-UNEP publication “National Greenhouse Gas Emissions Baseline Scenarios Learning from Experiences in Developing Countries”: use_gas_emissions_baseline_scenarios_-_web_-_spreads.pdf