Nasredin Elamin Mohamed Y. Aw-Dahir FAO Regional Office for the Near East Cairo, Egypt

1. Regional priorities for food security in the
context of the ongoing social and political
transition in the region
Impacts of the Recent Development in the region on
Food Security: Case Studies of Egypt, Sudan and
Yemen
Nasredin Elamin
Mohamed Y. Aw-Dahir
FAO Regional Office for the Near East
Cairo, Egypt

2. • Structural issues: high dependency on food
imports, climate change threat, unemployment,
high population growth rate, increased
urbanization, single-sector economies, and
scarce natural resources (water and arable land)
etc.
• Rural landless, poor urban households, and
conflict-affected are the most vulnerable
population groups.
Food Security situation

3. The ongoing political and
social transition
• Offers new opportunities that will enable governments to be
accountable to their citizens
• Poses several challenges: social/political unrest, civil
insecurity, uncertainty, disruptions of livelihood and economic
activities, low-intensity armed conflict (Syria and Yemen),
cross-border population movement, increase in cost of
subsidies etc.
• Compounded by the impact of global financial and economic
crises, high food prices/volatility, slowdown of investment
and economic activities etc.
• Serious impact on food and livelihood security of the

4. Yemen
Impact Analysis: Rising Food Insecurity
-By Nov 2011, 10m were food insecure up from 7.2M in
March 2010 (10% increase).
- Key food security aspects have deteriorated.
- Malnutrition: about 13% of children suffer from acute
malnutrition while about 1/3 show severe stunting
effects.

5. Yemen cont…
Impact Analysis: Economy
-Overall inflation rate jumped to 23% in 2011 up from 13% in
2010 and increased marginally to 24% in 2012)
- Exchange Rate: Currency depreciation (Rial to the USD) i.e.
from 219.59 in 2010 to almost 230 in 2012.

6. Yemen consequence
- Worsening insecurity, civilian displacement, complete
loss of livelihoods.
- Income per capita: one of the poorest countries, and
the transition only served to add more onto poor
category
-The most affected population groups can be found in
the governorates of Al Bayda, Abyan, Al-Hodeyida,
Hajja, Rayma, Lahj, and AD-Daleh.

7. Sudan
Situational and context Analysis
- Transition has been ongoing for the past ten years or so.
- Continued conflicts, with the south after secession and in
various other regions.
- Conflict driven migration to the relatively peaceful areas
- Low budgetary allocation to the agricultural sector
-Recent austerity measures led to removal of fuel subsidies and
exchange rate volatility and depreciation.
-Food expenditure between 53 – 67% in 8 of the food insecure
states (Red Sea, Sennar, White Nile, West & North Darfur, North
Kordofan, and Gadarif are the most food insecure states)

8. Sudan cont….
Impacts on Food Security
-Declining total production of staple grains due to
conflict
- The country become one of the highest recipients of
food aid
-Food inflation has been on the rise, 40% by July 2012,
and has been higher in rural areas.
- Cost of the minimum food basket increased by 226%
in 2nd
quarter of 2012.

9. Egypt
Situation and Context Analysis
- Transition: lasted for one year but still evolving with
occasional civil unrests.
-Drop of revenue from tourism and associated service
sectors
-Drop of foreign exchange reserves
- Increase in unemployment rates

10. Egypt cont….
Impact on Food Security
- Decline in Household incomes:
- Capital flight during the revolution period
- Disruptions in economic activity
- Returnees from other Arab countries (Libya and Syria)
- Inflation: overall inflation reached 116.4 in 2011 from 84.8 in
2008.
-similar trend to the poverty rate which increased from 21.6 to
25.2 in the same period
- Increase in social welfare programs: e.g. the budgetary
allocation for food subsidies increased from 14.1 Billion LE in
2009/10 to 23.2 Billion LE in 2010/11 and this is expected to
increase to 26.6 Billion LE by 2012/13

11. Discussion points
- Impacts: Short, medium and loner term
-Aggregating factors(Global and regional)
•Financial crisis
•Global food markets structure(narrow food markets)
•Food price volatility
•International trade rules, regulations
•Natural disasters and impact of climate change
•Policies/decisions etc
-Policy options
•Food Import Management
•Food production(build resilience)
•Social protection
•Regional cooperation etc