Growth path and milestones for the EU tire pyrolysis industry

1. Growth path and milestones
for the EU tire pyrolysis industry
MartinvonWolfersdorff
ETRAConference2022
Brussels,June1st 2022
Wolfersdorff
C O N S U L T I N G

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C O N S U L T I N G
Contents
A paradigm change:
2015 2022
Recycling Production
Economy Ecology
1. The industry – rCB growth path
2. The industry – EU rCB pricing 2017 – 2030
3. Culture eats technology for breakfast
4. Some milestones for rCB
5. Questions

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C O N S U L T I N G
The industry – rCB growth path ‘22 – ‘24
0 ktpa
50 ktpa
100 ktpa
150 ktpa
200 ktpa
250 ktpa
300 ktpa
350 ktpa
2021 2024
Asia Europe North America South America
Source: “Prospects for recovered Carbon Black”, Notch Consulting & Wolfersdorff Consulting Berlin
Europe will outgrow Asia in rCB1
production capacity by 2024.
The main growth driver in Europe is
ecology vs. economy in Asia.
New capacity in EU will be mainly in
Belgium and the Netherlands where
big chemical parks are located.
World rCB1 capacity in 2024 corresponds
to the EU market for N600 furnace CB.
Data is a conservative estimate
only considering main reliable players.
EU N600 EU N700

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The industry – EU rCB pricing 2017 - 2030
Sources:
N600: Wolfersdorff Consulting Berlin
(EXW, in bulk, large contracts)
Monthly data
rCB1: Pricing at 80% - 120% of N600
N600 FC: Wolfersdorff Consulting Berlin
(EXW, in bulk, large contracts)
Annual data
US Dept of Energy AEO 2021
X-rates x-rates.com
X-rate FC litefinance.com
EU GDP estimates PWC
Carbon credit 2023-35 85€/t CO2e
Carbon credit 2023-35 100€/t CO2e
Current market situation:
EU carbon black markets short of supply due to
excessive safety stock building by the tire industry
(about 3 months supplies) due to the uncertainty
of supplies with Russian CB (about 36% of CB in
Europe). Almost no spot market volume available.
Chinese CB arriving at large quantities but at
much larger price than contract price.
Spot: China CB
CIF EU port, ~100 ktons
(2.500 $/t)
June: 1.506 €/t
June: 1.205 €/t
June: 1.807 €/t
War in Ukraine
COVID

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Culture eats technology for breakfast
❶ Environment (Where?)
❷ Behaviour (What?) Waste, recycling
❸ Capability (How?) Technology, R&D
❹ Values, beliefs (Why?)
❺ Identity (Who?)
❻ Affiliation (With whom?) Scale
❼ Vision, purpose (For whom?)
Our external world
Our internal world (“culture”)
Inspired by Robert Dilts’ “Logical Levels”

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Some milestones for rCB
2025
2024
ISO 9001 / IATF 16949 quality systems; FS control; process control
BlackCycle and other ecosystems; CB partnerships; Industry Association; Diversification
ASTM TGA, FT Rheology; new OAN etc.
Equity vs debt
Required when ELTs have rCB content
R&D outsourcing
Licensing
Coaching

7. Thanks! – Questions & Answers
Prospects for
recovered Carbon Black
report available on
www.wolfersdorff.com