Presentation 6 Slides - Evangelos Tzimas - EU Commission Joint Research Centre (Part i)

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EMIRI Tech Talk on Batteries for Energy Storage - Assessment of potential bottlenecks along the materials supply chain for the future deployment of low-carbon energy and transport technologies in the EU with a focus on batteries

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Presentation 6 Slides - Evangelos Tzimas - EU Commission Joint Research Centre (Part i)

  1. 1. 1 1 The European Commission’s science and knowledge service Joint Research Centre 'Bottleneck' materials for the deployment of low-carbon technologies in the EU Dr. Vangelis Tzimas Deputy Head of Unit Knowledge for the Energy Union 23 February 2017, Brussels
  2. 2. 2 The EU Raw Materials Initiative (RMI) Critical raw materials list  Securing reliable and undistorted access of certain raw materials is of growing concern within the EU and across the globe  20 'critical raw materials' for the whole EU economy (2014 analysis) CRITICALITY MATRIX - 2014 Supplyrisk Economic importance
  3. 3. 3 1 BEV battery: 9.5 kg Li 5.6 kg Co 29 kg Graphite 1 PHEV battery: 3 kg Li 2 kg Co 10 kg Graphite
  4. 4. 4 EU resilience to materials supply a Low Carbon Technology deployment perspective Bottlenecks • Increasing material demand • Competition - sectors and countries • Concentration of supply • Geopolitical risk • Environmental constraints • Geological/production constraints • Import dependency (raw materials) • Manufacturing capacity dependency Mitigation measures  Access to new resources: - EU production - Trade agreements  EU manufacturing capacities  Recycling  Substitution
  5. 5. 5 New JRC study on bottleneck materials for Wind, PV and EVs: 2030 timeframe 15 materials screened … Batteries Lithium Cobalt Graphite Electric motors Neodymium Praseodymium Dysprosium Turbines Neodymium Praseodymium Dysprosium Blades Composites (CFC) (criticality expected on the manufacturing side rather than raw material side) CIGS PV Modules Silicon Silver Copper Indium Gallium Selenium Cadmium Tellurium CdTe c-Si
  6. 6. 6 EU resilience for wind technology - 2015 Downstream (processed materials/components/assembly) Upstream (mining/refining) Nd, Pr, Dy CFC CFC Nd, Pr, Dy Wind Wind
  7. 7. 7 Downstream (processed materials/components/assembly) Upstream (mining/refining) Ag Si Si Ag Photovoltaic Photovoltaic In In EU resilience for PV technology - 2015
  8. 8. 8 Downstream (processed materials/components/assembly) Upstream (mining/refining) Co graphite Electric vehicles Electric vehicles Li Li, CoNd, Pr, Dy graphite Nd, Pr, Dy EU resilience for EV technology - 2015
  9. 9. 9 JRC methodology EU resilience assessment Upstream dimension (D1) Downstream dimension (D2) D1.1 Material demand D1.2 Investment potential D1.3 Stability of supply D1.4 Reserves depletion D1.5 Import reliance D1.6 Supply adequacy D1.7 Recycling D1.8 Substitution D2.1 Supply chain dependency D2.2 Purchasing potential D2.3 Material cost impact Materials supply chain
  10. 10. 10 Upstream Dimension (D1) DownstreamDimension(D2) • Boosting EU raw materials production • Recycling • Substitution Resilience chart Mitigation measures
  11. 11. 11 Wind technology current situation • Today the EU is highly vulnerable to supply chain bottlenecks for rare earths used for magnets in wind turbines • High resilience for carbon fibre composites (CFCs) Nd Dy Pr CFC Wind technology - current situation
  12. 12. 12 Wind technology 2030 Nd Dy Pr CFC Nd Dy Pr CFC Recycling X Substitution X EU RM production X Recycling Substitution EU RM production Wind technology - 2030
  13. 13. 13 PV technology current situation No strong concerns for PV materials! In Ag Si Cu Ga Se Cd Te PV technology - current situation
  14. 14. 14 PV technology 2030 In Ag Si Cu Ga Se Cd Te In Ag Si Cu Ga Se Cd Te Recycling X Substitution X EU RM production X Recycling Substitution EU RM production PV technology - 2030
  15. 15. 15 Electric Vehicles 516 2528 831 13313 24941 65226 120416 21450 39599 Cobalt Graphite Lithium Cobalt Graphite Lithium 2015 2030 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 EUdemand(tonnes) Values 2015  ERERT* scenario 2030  Tech 3** scenario 2030  Materials demand in LIB for electric vehicles * ERERT - European Roadmap Electrification of Road Transport ** Tech 3 - EC project: "EU transport GHG: Routes to 2050" BEV PHEV 60000 90000 1.5 mil. 2.3 mil. 2.4 mil. 5.6 mil. EV market and materials demand
  16. 16. 16 LithiumGlobal Lithium production
  17. 17. 17 CobaltGlobal Cobalt production (refined)
  18. 18. 18 Global Graphite production
  19. 19. 19 Supply chain dependency for EVs
  20. 20. 20 • The demand for Li, Co and graphite for EV may increase 25 times even under a conservative deployment scenario. Under more optimistic deployment scenario the demand might rise up to 45 times! • The EU is heavily dependent on import of all three raw materials. • The EU is strongly dependent on manufacturing capacities downstream: some limited electrode materials production and no cell manufacturing in the EU. Battery materials: Key messages
  21. 21. 21 EV technology current situation • Rare earths in magnets for electric traction motors and graphite for rechargeable batteries are at risk of supply • Lithium and cobalt: borderline Nd Dy Pr C Li Co EV technology - current situation
  22. 22. 22 EV technology 2030 Li, Co, C Nd Dy Pr Nd Dy Pr Li Co C Recycling X Substitution X EU RM production X Recycling Substitution EU RM production EV technology - 2030
  23. 23. 23 The EU is vulnerable to supply bottlenecks of several key materials needed in wind power, photovoltaic and electric vehicle technologies. Unless mitigation measures are taken, the EU resilience to potential supply issues will deteriorate by 2030. Conclusions
  24. 24. 24 Thank you!Thank you!

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