Phoenix Construction Vital Stats - November

1. 0
5
10
Construction Backlog
Indicator
By the
Numbers:
Construction Owner
Confidence Index
Unemployment Rate
Housing Permits & Starts
(Bureau of Labor Statistics)
(U.S. Census Bureau & Dept. of Housing and Urban Dev.)
(Producer Price Index)
(U.S. Census Bureau)
(Associated Builders & Contractors/3rd Quarter 2015)
(Associated Builders & Contractors/1st Half of 2015)
Readings above 50 indicate growth
NonresidentialConstructionMaterialPrices
NonresidentialConstructionSpending
Overall
Current Month
SALES EXPECTATIONS
TOTAL PERMITS TOTAL STARTS
PROFIT MARGIN
EXPECTATIONS
STAFFING LEVEL
INTENTIONS
Year-over-Year
Construction
Construction Vital Statistics
rose from 67.3 to 69.4
expanded from 61.0 to 62.9
dipped slightly from 66.3 to 66.2
Current Month:
11.0% vs.
1 yr. Earlier: 19.5%
Current Month:
10.5% vs.
1 yr. Earlier: 16.5%
8.5 vs. 1 yr. Earlier: 8.8
November 2015
at a Glance
Current Month: -0.5% Year-over-year change: -4.6%
October 2015: 1.0% Year-over-year change: 11.0%
5.0% 5.8% 6.2% 7.5%

2. Reading above 50 indicate growth, while readings below 50 are unfavorable.
Any Architecture Billing Index Score above 50 signifies growth - it is a leading economic indicator that provides an
approximately nine to 12 month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity.
It is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have
been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. Since reaching bottom
in July 2011 at a level of 77.1 (2000=100), the index has been trending up.
Rates as of mid month.
1
2
3
www.cbiz.com/construction1-800-ASK-CBIZ |
4
November 2015 at a Glance
Construction Backlog Indicator (Months)
Current Backlog
Backlog from a year ago
(Associated Builders & Contractors)
Construction Owner Confidence Index
Sales Expectations
Profit Margin Expectations
Staffing Level Intentions
(Associated Builders & Contractors)
National Unemployment Rate
Overall current month
Overall year over year
Construction current month
Construction year over year
(Bureau of Labor Statistics - BLS)
National Housing Permits and Starts
Permits - Total
Permits - Total from twelve months earlier
1 - Family - change from previous month
1 - Family - change year over year
5 + Units - change from previous month
5 + Units - change year over year
Starts - Total
Starts - Total from twelve months earlier
1 - Family - change from previous month
1 - Family - change year over year
5 + Units - change from previous month
5 + Units - change year over year
(U.S. Census Bureau & Dept. of Housing and Urban Dev.)
Nonresidential Construction Material Prices
Current Month
Change year over year
(Producer Price Index - PPI)
Nonresidential Construction Spending
Previous Month
Change year over year
(U.S. Census Bureau)
AIA - Architecture Billing Index
Dodge Momentum Index - Commercial Building
Interest Rates
I-Month LIBOR
WSJ Prime Rate
5 Year US Treasury Rate
10 Year US Treasury Rate
Jun. ‘15 Jul. ‘15
8.5
8.5
Aug. ‘15
5.3%
6.1%
6.3%
8.2%
7.4%
30.0%
0.9%
6.0%
16.1%
79.0%
9.8%
26.6%
0.9%
14.7%
28.6%
55.0%
0.3%
-3.6%
1.1%
8.1%
55.7
126.1
0.1859%
3.25%
1.63%
2.36%
1
2
4
8.4
8.1
67.3
61.0
66.3
2nd 1/2 ‘14
1st Qtr. ‘15 2nd Qtr. ‘15
3
Arizona Unemployment Rate
5.9%
6.3%
6.9%
California Unemployment Rate
Nevada Unemployment Rate
West Housing Permits and Starts
Overall current month
Overall current month
Overall current month
Permits - Total
Permits - Total from twelve months earlier
1 - Family - change from previous month
1 - Family - change year over year
Starts - Total
Starts - Total from twelve months earlier
1 - Family - change from previous month
1 - Family - change year over year
9.5%
27.4%
-3.7%
6.2%
-6.0%
9.6%
-7.1%
12.1%
5.3%
6.2%
5.5%
7.5%
6.1%
6.2%
6.8%
-16.3%
7.5%
-1.9%
6.1%
-32.6%
11.1%
0.2%
10.1%
12.8%
19.0%
-17.1%
-2.1%
-9.9%
10.9%
-1.3%
14.8%
-3.1%
4.1%
16.6%
24.5%
-0.3%
-3.9%
0.0%
11.5%
54.7
132.1
0.1882%
3.25%
1.58%
2.16%
5.1%
6.1%
6.1%
7.7%
6.3%
6.1%
6.8%
3.5%
12.5%
2.8%
8.7%
4.3%
21.5%
-3.0%
16.6%
-3.0%
14.9%
-2.3%
24.5%
9.6%
36.4%
5.8%
28.1%
-1.1%
28.2%
-18.3%
7.3%
-0.8%
-4.7%
0.5%
12.7%
49.1
142.0
0.1968%
3.25%
1.61%
2.28%
Sep. ‘15
69.4
62.9
66.2
1st 1/2 ‘15
5.1%
5.9%
5.5%
7.0%
6.3%
5.9%
6.7%
-5.0%
4.7%
-0.3%
6.7%
-14.6%
-1.3%
6.5%
17.5%
0.3%
12.0%
17.0%
28.6%
-6.2%
15.7%
-4.9%
19.1%
25.4%
27.5%
18.2%
19.0%
-1.6%
-6.0%
0.3%
12.3%
53.7
140.0
0.2011%
3.25%
1.34%
2.04%
Oct. ‘15
5.0%
5.7%
6.2%
6.4%
6.1%
5.8%
6.6%
-2.6%
-7.0%
3.2%
19.3%
-16.2%
14.5%
1.8%
8.2%
4.1%
2.7%
2.4%
9.0%
8.3%
-7.1%
-11.0%
-1.8%
-2.4%
2.4%
-25.5%
-8.4%
-0.3%
-5.1%
-0.1%
12.4%
53.1
124.5
0.1945%
3.25%
1.66%
2.27%
Nov. ‘15
8.5
8.8
3rd Qtr. ‘15
5.0%
5.8%
6.2%
7.5%
6.0%
5.7%
6.5%
11.0%
19.5%
1.1%
9.0%
30.8%
38.9%
10.5%
16.5%
7.6%
14.6%
18.1%
21.3%
-0.5%
-4.6%
1.0%
11.0%
49.3
119.9
0.2084%
3.25%
1.71%
2.28%
21.7%
13.1%
6.2%
17.8%
6.3%
-7.3%
15.1%
31.7%