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Construction Backlog
Indicator
By the
Numbers:
Construction Owner
Confidence Index
Unemployment Rate
Housing Permits & Starts
(Bureau of Labor Statistics)
(U.S. Census Bureau & Dept. of Housing and Urban Dev.)
(Producer Price Index)
(U.S. Census Bureau)
(Associated Builders & Contractors/3rd Quarter 2015)
(Associated Builders & Contractors/1st Half of 2015)
Readings above 50 indicate growth
NonresidentialConstructionMaterialPrices
NonresidentialConstructionSpending
Overall
Current Month
SALES EXPECTATIONS
TOTAL PERMITS TOTAL STARTS
PROFIT MARGIN
EXPECTATIONS
STAFFING LEVEL
INTENTIONS
1 yr. Earlier
Construction
Construction Vital Statistics
rose from 67.3 to 69.4
expanded from 61.0 to 62.9
dipped slightly from 66.3 to 66.2
Current Month:
-3.9% vs.
1 yr. Earlier: 14.4%
Current Month:
-2.5% vs.
1 yr. Earlier: 6.4%
8.5 vs. 1 yr. Earlier: 8.8
December 2015
at a Glance
Current Month: -1.1% Year-over-year change: -4.0%
November 2015: -0.8% Year-over-year change: 10.2%
5.0% 5.6% 7.5% 8.3%
www.cbiz.com/construction1-800-ASK-CBIZ |
1. Reading above 50 indicate growth, while readings below 50 are unfavorable.
2. Any Architecture Billing Index Score above 50 signifies growth - it is a leading economic indicator that provides an
approximately nine to 12 month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity.
3. It is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been
shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. Since reaching bottom in July 2011
at a level of 77.1 (2000=100), the index has been trending up.
4. Rates as of mid month.
Construction Backlog Indicator (Months)
Current Backlog 8.5 8.5
Backlog from a year ago 8.5 8.8
(Associated Builders & Contractors)
Construction Owner Confidence Index1
Sales Expectations 69.4
Profit Margin Expectations 62.9
Staffing Level Intentions 66.2
(Associated Builders & Contractors)
National Unemployment Rate
Overall current month 5.3% 5.1% 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Overall from twelve months earlier 6.2% 6.1% 5.9% 5.7% 5.8% 5.6%
Construction current month 5.5% 6.1% 5.5% 6.2% 6.2% 7.5%
Construction from twelve months earlier 7.5% 7.0% 7.0% 6.4% 7.5% 8.3%
(Bureau of Labor Statistics - BLS)
Housing Permits and Starts
National
Permits - Total -16.3% 3.5% -5.0% 4.1% 11.0% -3.9%
Permits - Total from twelve months earlier 7.5% 12.5% 4.7% 2.7% 19.5% 14.4%
1 - Family - change from previous month -1.9% 2.8% -0.3% 2.4% 1.1% 1.8%
1 - Family - change year over year 6.1% 8.7% 6.7% 9.0% 9.0% 8.0%
5 + Units - change from previous month -32.6% 4.3% -14.6% 8.3% 30.8% -13.5%
5 + Units - change year over year 11.1% 21.5% -1.3% -7.1% 38.9% 23.6%
Starts - Total 0.2% -3.0% 6.5% -11.0% 10.5% -2.5%
Starts - Total from twelve months earlier 10.1% 16.6% 17.5% -1.8% 16.5% 6.4%
1 - Family - change from previous month 12.8% -3.0% 0.3% -2.4% 7.6% -3.3%
1 - Family - change year over year 19.0% 14.9% 12.0% 2.4% 14.6% 6.1%
5 + Units - change from previous month -17.1% -2.3% 17.0% -25.5% 18.1% -3.4%
5 + Units - change year over year -2.1% 24.5% 28.6% -8.4% 21.3% 8.6%
(U.S. Census Bureau & Dept. of Housing and Urban Dev.)
Nonresidential Construction Material Prices
Current Month -0.3% -0.8% -1.6% -0.3% -0.5% -1.1%
Change year over year -3.9% -4.7% -6.0% -5.1% -4.6% -4.0%
(Producer Price Index - PPI)
Nonresidential Construction Spending
Previous Month 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% -0.1% 1.0% -0.8%
Change year over year 11.5% 12.7% 12.3% 12.4% 11.0% 10.2%
(U.S. Census Bureau)
AIA - Architecture Billing Index2
54.7 49.1 53.7 53.1 49.3 50.9
Dodge Momentum Index - Commercial Building3
132.1 142.0 140.0 124.5 118.8 123.3
Interest Rates4
I-Month LIBOR 0.1882% 0.1968% 0.2011% 0.1945% 0.2084% 0.3584%
WSJ Prime Rate 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.50%
5 Year US Treasury Rate 1.58% 1.61% 1.34% 1.66% 1.71% 1.46%
10 Year US Treasury Rate 2.16% 2.28% 2.04% 2.27% 2.28% 2.03%
Jul. ‘15 Aug. ‘15 Sep. ‘15 Oct. ‘15 Nov. ‘15 Dec. ‘15
2nd Qtr. ‘15
1st 1/2 ‘15
December 2015 at a Glance
3rd Qtr. ‘15

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Construction Backlog Indicator Report

  • 1. 0 5 10 Construction Backlog Indicator By the Numbers: Construction Owner Confidence Index Unemployment Rate Housing Permits & Starts (Bureau of Labor Statistics) (U.S. Census Bureau & Dept. of Housing and Urban Dev.) (Producer Price Index) (U.S. Census Bureau) (Associated Builders & Contractors/3rd Quarter 2015) (Associated Builders & Contractors/1st Half of 2015) Readings above 50 indicate growth NonresidentialConstructionMaterialPrices NonresidentialConstructionSpending Overall Current Month SALES EXPECTATIONS TOTAL PERMITS TOTAL STARTS PROFIT MARGIN EXPECTATIONS STAFFING LEVEL INTENTIONS 1 yr. Earlier Construction Construction Vital Statistics rose from 67.3 to 69.4 expanded from 61.0 to 62.9 dipped slightly from 66.3 to 66.2 Current Month: -3.9% vs. 1 yr. Earlier: 14.4% Current Month: -2.5% vs. 1 yr. Earlier: 6.4% 8.5 vs. 1 yr. Earlier: 8.8 December 2015 at a Glance Current Month: -1.1% Year-over-year change: -4.0% November 2015: -0.8% Year-over-year change: 10.2% 5.0% 5.6% 7.5% 8.3%
  • 2. www.cbiz.com/construction1-800-ASK-CBIZ | 1. Reading above 50 indicate growth, while readings below 50 are unfavorable. 2. Any Architecture Billing Index Score above 50 signifies growth - it is a leading economic indicator that provides an approximately nine to 12 month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. 3. It is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. Since reaching bottom in July 2011 at a level of 77.1 (2000=100), the index has been trending up. 4. Rates as of mid month. Construction Backlog Indicator (Months) Current Backlog 8.5 8.5 Backlog from a year ago 8.5 8.8 (Associated Builders & Contractors) Construction Owner Confidence Index1 Sales Expectations 69.4 Profit Margin Expectations 62.9 Staffing Level Intentions 66.2 (Associated Builders & Contractors) National Unemployment Rate Overall current month 5.3% 5.1% 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% Overall from twelve months earlier 6.2% 6.1% 5.9% 5.7% 5.8% 5.6% Construction current month 5.5% 6.1% 5.5% 6.2% 6.2% 7.5% Construction from twelve months earlier 7.5% 7.0% 7.0% 6.4% 7.5% 8.3% (Bureau of Labor Statistics - BLS) Housing Permits and Starts National Permits - Total -16.3% 3.5% -5.0% 4.1% 11.0% -3.9% Permits - Total from twelve months earlier 7.5% 12.5% 4.7% 2.7% 19.5% 14.4% 1 - Family - change from previous month -1.9% 2.8% -0.3% 2.4% 1.1% 1.8% 1 - Family - change year over year 6.1% 8.7% 6.7% 9.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5 + Units - change from previous month -32.6% 4.3% -14.6% 8.3% 30.8% -13.5% 5 + Units - change year over year 11.1% 21.5% -1.3% -7.1% 38.9% 23.6% Starts - Total 0.2% -3.0% 6.5% -11.0% 10.5% -2.5% Starts - Total from twelve months earlier 10.1% 16.6% 17.5% -1.8% 16.5% 6.4% 1 - Family - change from previous month 12.8% -3.0% 0.3% -2.4% 7.6% -3.3% 1 - Family - change year over year 19.0% 14.9% 12.0% 2.4% 14.6% 6.1% 5 + Units - change from previous month -17.1% -2.3% 17.0% -25.5% 18.1% -3.4% 5 + Units - change year over year -2.1% 24.5% 28.6% -8.4% 21.3% 8.6% (U.S. Census Bureau & Dept. of Housing and Urban Dev.) Nonresidential Construction Material Prices Current Month -0.3% -0.8% -1.6% -0.3% -0.5% -1.1% Change year over year -3.9% -4.7% -6.0% -5.1% -4.6% -4.0% (Producer Price Index - PPI) Nonresidential Construction Spending Previous Month 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% -0.1% 1.0% -0.8% Change year over year 11.5% 12.7% 12.3% 12.4% 11.0% 10.2% (U.S. Census Bureau) AIA - Architecture Billing Index2 54.7 49.1 53.7 53.1 49.3 50.9 Dodge Momentum Index - Commercial Building3 132.1 142.0 140.0 124.5 118.8 123.3 Interest Rates4 I-Month LIBOR 0.1882% 0.1968% 0.2011% 0.1945% 0.2084% 0.3584% WSJ Prime Rate 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.50% 5 Year US Treasury Rate 1.58% 1.61% 1.34% 1.66% 1.71% 1.46% 10 Year US Treasury Rate 2.16% 2.28% 2.04% 2.27% 2.28% 2.03% Jul. ‘15 Aug. ‘15 Sep. ‘15 Oct. ‘15 Nov. ‘15 Dec. ‘15 2nd Qtr. ‘15 1st 1/2 ‘15 December 2015 at a Glance 3rd Qtr. ‘15