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Construction Backlog
Indicator
By the
Numbers:
Construction Owner
Confidence Index
Unemployment Rate
Housing Permits & Starts
(Bureau of Labor Statistics)
(U.S. Census Bureau & Dept. of Housing and Urban Dev.)
(Producer Price Index)
(U.S. Census Bureau)
(Associated Builders & Contractors/1st Quarter 2016)
(Associated Builders & Contractors/2nd Half of 2015)
Readings above 50 indicate growth
NonresidentialConstructionMaterialPrices
NonresidentialConstructionSpending
Overall
Current Month
SALES EXPECTATIONS
TOTAL PERMITS TOTAL STARTS
PROFIT MARGIN
EXPECTATIONS
STAFFING LEVEL
INTENTIONS
1 yr. Earlier
Construction
Construction Vital Statistics
fell from 69.4 to 67.0
edged lower from 62.9 to 62.8
dipped from 66.2 to 63.9
Current Month:
0.7% vs.
1 yr. Earlier: -10.1%
Current Month:
-0.3% vs.
1 yr. Earlier: 9.5%
8.6 vs. 1 yr. Earlier: 8.4
May 2016
at a Glance
Current Month: 0.9% Year-over-year change: -3.5%
April 2016: -2.1% Year-over-year change: 2.5%
4.7% 5.5% 5.2% 6.7%
www.cbiz.com/construction1-800-ASK-CBIZ |
1.	 Reading above 50 indicate growth, while readings below 50 are unfavorable.
2.	 Any Architecture Billing Index Score above 50 signifies growth - it is a leading economic indicator that provides an
approximately nine to 12 month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity.
3.	 It is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been
shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. Since reaching bottom in July 2011
at a level of 77.1 (2000=100), the index has been trending up.
4.	 Rates as of mid month.
Construction Backlog Indicator (Months)
Current Backlog 	 8.5	 8.7				 8.6
Backlog from a year ago	 8.8	 8.7				 8.4
(Associated Builders & Contractors)	
Construction Owner Confidence Index1
Sales Expectations	 69.4			 67.0	
Profit Margin Expectations	 62.9			 62.8		
Staffing Level Intentions	 66.2			 63.9			
(Associated Builders & Contractors)
National Unemployment Rate
Overall current month	 5.0%	 4.9%	 4.9%	 5.0%	 5.0%	 4.7%
Overall from twelve months earlier	 5.6%	 5.7%	 5.5%	 5.5%	 5.4%	 5.5%
Construction current month	 7.5%	 8.5%	 8.7%	 8.7%	 6.0%	 5.2%
Construction from twelve months earlier	 8.3%	 9.8%	 10.6%	 9.5%	 7.5%	 6.7%
(Bureau of Labor Statistics - BLS)	
Housing Permits and Starts	
National	
Permits - Total	 -3.9%	 -0.2%	 -3.1%	 -7.7%	 3.6%	 0.7%
Permits - Total from twelve months earlier	 14.4%	 13.5%	 6.3%	 4.6%	 -5.3%	 -10.1%
1 - Family - change from previous month	 1.8%	 -1.6%	 0.4%	 -1.2%	 1.5%	 -2.0%
1 - Family - change year over year	 8.0%	 9.6%	 16.8%	 13.2%	 8.4%	 4.8%
5 + Units - change from previous month 	 -13.5%	 1.1%	 -9.1%	 -20.6%	 9.4%	 6.7%
5 + Units - change year over year	 23.6%	 17.9%	 -9.7%	 -12.4%	 -25.3%	 -29.3%
Starts - Total	 -2.5%	 -3.8%	 5.2%	 -8.8%	 6.6%	 -0.3%
Starts - Total from twelve months earlier	 6.4%	 1.8%	 30.9%	 14.2%	 -1.7%	 9.5%
1 - Family - change from previous month	 -3.3%	 -3.9%	 7.2%	 -9.2%	 3.3%	 0.3%
1 - Family - change year over year	 6.1%	 3.5%	 37.0%	 22.6%	 4.3%	 10.1%
5 + Units - change from previous month	 -3.4%	 -2.5%	 2.4%	 -8.5%	 10.7%	 1.3%
5 + Units - change year over year	 8.6%	 -3.8%	 16.8%	 0.3%	 -12.9%	 10.0%
(U.S. Census Bureau & Dept. of Housing and Urban Dev.)	
Nonresidential Construction Material Prices
Current Month 	 -1.1%	 -0.8%	 -0.7%	 1.0%	 0.5%	 0.9%
Change year over year	 -4.0%	 -2.7%	 -3.8%	 -3.5%	 -3.1%	 -3.5%
(Producer Price Index - PPI)
Nonresidential Construction Spending
Previous Month 	 -0.8%	 -0.4%	 2.5%	 -1.4%	 -0.4%	 -2.1%
Change year over year	 10.2%	 8.3%	 12.3%	 10.1%	 8.3%	 2.5%
(U.S. Census Bureau)
AIA - Architecture Billing Index2
	 51.3	49.6	50.3	51.9	50.6	53.1
Dodge Momentum Index - Commercial Building3
	 121.8	123.3	124.1	 124.7	123.4	132.2
Interest Rates4
I-Month LIBOR	 0.3584%	 0.4255%	 0.4313%	 0.4363%	 0.4374%	 0.4426%
WSJ Prime Rate 	 3.50%	 3.50%	 3.50%	 3.50%	 3.50%	 3.50%
5 Year US Treasury Rate	 1.46%	 1.23%	 1.50%	 1.22%	 1.26%	 1.10%
10 Year US Treasury Rate	 2.03%	 1.78%	 1.97%	 1.76%	 1.75% 	 1.60%
Dec. ‘15	 Jan. ‘16	 Feb. ‘16	 Mar. ‘16	 Apr. ‘16	 May ‘16
3rd Qtr. ‘15
1st 1/2 ‘15
May 2016 at a Glance
4th Qtr. ‘15
2nd 1/2 ‘15
1st Qtr. ‘16

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Construction Vital Statistics - May 2016

  • 1. 0 5 10 Construction Backlog Indicator By the Numbers: Construction Owner Confidence Index Unemployment Rate Housing Permits & Starts (Bureau of Labor Statistics) (U.S. Census Bureau & Dept. of Housing and Urban Dev.) (Producer Price Index) (U.S. Census Bureau) (Associated Builders & Contractors/1st Quarter 2016) (Associated Builders & Contractors/2nd Half of 2015) Readings above 50 indicate growth NonresidentialConstructionMaterialPrices NonresidentialConstructionSpending Overall Current Month SALES EXPECTATIONS TOTAL PERMITS TOTAL STARTS PROFIT MARGIN EXPECTATIONS STAFFING LEVEL INTENTIONS 1 yr. Earlier Construction Construction Vital Statistics fell from 69.4 to 67.0 edged lower from 62.9 to 62.8 dipped from 66.2 to 63.9 Current Month: 0.7% vs. 1 yr. Earlier: -10.1% Current Month: -0.3% vs. 1 yr. Earlier: 9.5% 8.6 vs. 1 yr. Earlier: 8.4 May 2016 at a Glance Current Month: 0.9% Year-over-year change: -3.5% April 2016: -2.1% Year-over-year change: 2.5% 4.7% 5.5% 5.2% 6.7%
  • 2. www.cbiz.com/construction1-800-ASK-CBIZ | 1. Reading above 50 indicate growth, while readings below 50 are unfavorable. 2. Any Architecture Billing Index Score above 50 signifies growth - it is a leading economic indicator that provides an approximately nine to 12 month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. 3. It is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. Since reaching bottom in July 2011 at a level of 77.1 (2000=100), the index has been trending up. 4. Rates as of mid month. Construction Backlog Indicator (Months) Current Backlog 8.5 8.7 8.6 Backlog from a year ago 8.8 8.7 8.4 (Associated Builders & Contractors) Construction Owner Confidence Index1 Sales Expectations 69.4 67.0 Profit Margin Expectations 62.9 62.8 Staffing Level Intentions 66.2 63.9 (Associated Builders & Contractors) National Unemployment Rate Overall current month 5.0% 4.9% 4.9% 5.0% 5.0% 4.7% Overall from twelve months earlier 5.6% 5.7% 5.5% 5.5% 5.4% 5.5% Construction current month 7.5% 8.5% 8.7% 8.7% 6.0% 5.2% Construction from twelve months earlier 8.3% 9.8% 10.6% 9.5% 7.5% 6.7% (Bureau of Labor Statistics - BLS) Housing Permits and Starts National Permits - Total -3.9% -0.2% -3.1% -7.7% 3.6% 0.7% Permits - Total from twelve months earlier 14.4% 13.5% 6.3% 4.6% -5.3% -10.1% 1 - Family - change from previous month 1.8% -1.6% 0.4% -1.2% 1.5% -2.0% 1 - Family - change year over year 8.0% 9.6% 16.8% 13.2% 8.4% 4.8% 5 + Units - change from previous month -13.5% 1.1% -9.1% -20.6% 9.4% 6.7% 5 + Units - change year over year 23.6% 17.9% -9.7% -12.4% -25.3% -29.3% Starts - Total -2.5% -3.8% 5.2% -8.8% 6.6% -0.3% Starts - Total from twelve months earlier 6.4% 1.8% 30.9% 14.2% -1.7% 9.5% 1 - Family - change from previous month -3.3% -3.9% 7.2% -9.2% 3.3% 0.3% 1 - Family - change year over year 6.1% 3.5% 37.0% 22.6% 4.3% 10.1% 5 + Units - change from previous month -3.4% -2.5% 2.4% -8.5% 10.7% 1.3% 5 + Units - change year over year 8.6% -3.8% 16.8% 0.3% -12.9% 10.0% (U.S. Census Bureau & Dept. of Housing and Urban Dev.) Nonresidential Construction Material Prices Current Month -1.1% -0.8% -0.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.9% Change year over year -4.0% -2.7% -3.8% -3.5% -3.1% -3.5% (Producer Price Index - PPI) Nonresidential Construction Spending Previous Month -0.8% -0.4% 2.5% -1.4% -0.4% -2.1% Change year over year 10.2% 8.3% 12.3% 10.1% 8.3% 2.5% (U.S. Census Bureau) AIA - Architecture Billing Index2 51.3 49.6 50.3 51.9 50.6 53.1 Dodge Momentum Index - Commercial Building3 121.8 123.3 124.1 124.7 123.4 132.2 Interest Rates4 I-Month LIBOR 0.3584% 0.4255% 0.4313% 0.4363% 0.4374% 0.4426% WSJ Prime Rate 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 5 Year US Treasury Rate 1.46% 1.23% 1.50% 1.22% 1.26% 1.10% 10 Year US Treasury Rate 2.03% 1.78% 1.97% 1.76% 1.75% 1.60% Dec. ‘15 Jan. ‘16 Feb. ‘16 Mar. ‘16 Apr. ‘16 May ‘16 3rd Qtr. ‘15 1st 1/2 ‘15 May 2016 at a Glance 4th Qtr. ‘15 2nd 1/2 ‘15 1st Qtr. ‘16