The backlog indicator is slightly higher, and the sales and profit margins expectations are slightly lowered compared to the same period in the previous year, but unemployment levels and total starts show signs of improvement.
Monthly Market Risk Update: April 2024 [SlideShare]
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Construction industry vital stats report
1. 0
5
10
Construction Backlog
Indicator
By the
Numbers:
Construction Owner
Confidence Index
Unemployment Rate
Housing Permits & Starts
(Bureau of Labor Statistics)
(U.S. Census Bureau & Dept. of Housing and Urban Dev.)
(Producer Price Index)
(U.S. Census Bureau)
(Associated Builders & Contractors/3rd Quarter 2016)
(Associated Builders & Contractors/1st Half of 2016)
Readings above 50 indicate growth
NonresidentialConstructionMaterialPrices
NonresidentialConstructionSpending
Overall
Current Month
SALES EXPECTATIONS
TOTAL PERMITS TOTAL STARTS
PROFIT MARGIN
EXPECTATIONS
STAFFING LEVEL
INTENTIONS
1 yr. Earlier
Construction
Construction Vital Statistics
fell from 67.0 to 65.1
fell from 62.8 to 61.1
climbed from 63.9 to 64.9
Current Month:
-0.2% vs.
1 yr. Earlier: 0.7%
Current Month:
11.3% vs.
1 yr. Earlier: 5.7%
8.7 vs. 1 yr. Earlier: 8.5
December 2016
at a Glance
Current Month: 0.6% Year-over-year change: 2.2%
July 2016: 0.8% Year-over-year change: 4.9%
4.7% 5.0% 7.4% 7.5%
2. www.cbiz.com/construction1-800-ASK-CBIZ |
1. Reading above 50 indicate growth, while readings below 50 are unfavorable.
2. Any Architecture Billing Index Score above 50 signifies growth - it is a leading economic indicator that provides an
approximately nine to 12 month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity.
3. It is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been
shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. Since reaching bottom in July 2011
at a level of 77.1 (2000=100), the index has been trending up.
4. Rates as of mid month.
MHM (Mayer Hoffman McCann P.C.) is an independent CPA firm that provides audit, review and attest
services, and works closely with CBIZ, a business consulting, tax and financial services provider. CBIZ and
MHM are members of Kreston International Limited, a global network of independent accounting firms.
Construction Backlog Indicator (Months)
Current Backlog 8.5 8.7
Backlog from a year ago 8.5 8.5
(Associated Builders & Contractors)
Construction Owner Confidence Index1
Sales Expectations 65.1
Profit Margin Expectations 61.1
Staffing Level Intentions 64.9
(Associated Builders & Contractors)
National Unemployment Rate
Overall current month 4.9% 4.9% 5.0% 4.9% 4.6% 4.7%
Overall from twelve months earlier 5.3% 5.1% 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Construction current month 4.5% 5.1% 5.2% 5.7% 5.7% 7.4%
Construction from twelve months earlier 5.5% 6.1% 5.5% 6.2% 6.2% 7.5%
(Bureau of Labor Statistics - BLS)
Housing Permits and Starts
National
Permits - Total -0.1% -0.4% 6.3% 0.3% -4.7% -0.2%
Permits - Total from twelve months earlier 0.9% -2.3% 8.5% 4.6% -6.6% 0.7%
1 - Family - change from previous month -3.7% 3.7% 0.4% 2.7% 0.5% 4.7%
1 - Family - change year over year 2.4% 3.8% 4.4% 5.1% 5.9% 10.7%
5 + Units - change from previous month 6.5% -8.4% 17.2% -1.8% -15.8% -10.1%
5 + Units - change year over year -1.7% -13.1% 17.2% 5.8% -26.4% -17.1%
Starts - Total 2.1% -5.8% -9.0% 25.5% -18.7% 11.3%
Starts - Total from twelve months earlier 5.6% 0.9% -11.9% 23.3% -6.9% 5.7%
1 - Family - change from previous month 0.5% -6.0% 8.1% 10.7% -4.1% -4.0%
1 - Family - change year over year 1.3% -1.2% 5.4% 21.7% 5.3% 3.9%
5 + Units - change from previous month 8.3% -6.9% -38.9% 74.5% -43.9% 53.9%
5 + Units - change year over year 15.2% 2.3% -42.5% 28.2% -36.0% 10.3%
(U.S. Census Bureau & Dept. of Housing and Urban Dev.)
Nonresidential Construction Material Prices
Current Month 1.2% -0.2% 0.3% 0.1% -0.7% 0.6%
Change year over year -2.3% -1.7% 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 2.2%
(Producer Price Index - PPI)
Nonresidential Construction Spending
Previous Month -1.0% -0.3% -1.1% -0.9% -0.3% 0.8%
Change year over year -1.1% 1.4% -1.3% -0.7% 2.6% 4.9%
(U.S. Census Bureau)
AIA - Architecture Billing Index2
51.5 49.7 48.4 50.8 50.6 55.9
Dodge Momentum Index - Commercial Building3
143.5 140.6 134.6 143.1 149.0 157.5
Interest Rates4
I-Month LIBOR 0.4829% 0.5128% 0.5270% 0.5308% 0.5308% 0.7164%
WSJ Prime Rate 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.75%
5 Year US Treasury Rate 1.14% 1.20% 1.26% 1.68% 2.10% 1.90%
10 Year US Treasury Rate 1.55% 1.71% 1.77% 2.23% 2.42% 2.40%
Jul. โ16 Aug. โ16 Sept. โ16 Oct. โ16 Novโ16 Dec. 16
3rd Qtr. โ16
December 2016 at a Glance
2nd Qtr. โ16
1st 1/2 โ16