1. 0
5
10
Construction Backlog
Indicator
By the
Numbers:
Construction Owner
Confidence Index
Unemployment Rate
Housing Permits & Starts
(Bureau of Labor Statistics)
(U.S. Census Bureau & Dept. of Housing and Urban Dev.)
(Producer Price Index)
(U.S. Census Bureau)
(Associated Builders & Contractors/3rd Quarter 2015)
(Associated Builders & Contractors/1st Half of 2015)
Readings above 50 indicate growth
NonresidentialConstructionMaterialPrices
NonresidentialConstructionSpending
Overall
Current Month
SALES EXPECTATIONS
TOTAL PERMITS TOTAL STARTS
PROFIT MARGIN
EXPECTATIONS
STAFFING LEVEL
INTENTIONS
1 yr. Earlier
Construction
Construction Vital Statistics
rose from 67.3 to 69.4
expanded from 61.0 to 62.9
dipped slightly from 66.3 to 66.2
Current Month:
-0.2% vs.
1 yr. Earlier: 13.5%
Current Month:
-3.8% vs.
1 yr. Earlier: 1.8%
8.5 vs. 1 yr. Earlier: 8.8
January 2016
at a Glance
Current Month: -0.8% Year-over-year change: -2.7%
December 2015: -0.4% Year-over-year change: 8.3%
4.9% 5.7% 8.5% 9.8%
2. www.cbiz.com/construction1-800-ASK-CBIZ |
1. Reading above 50 indicate growth, while readings below 50 are unfavorable.
2. Any Architecture Billing Index Score above 50 signifies growth - it is a leading economic indicator that provides an
approximately nine to 12 month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity.
3. It is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been
shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. Since reaching bottom in July 2011
at a level of 77.1 (2000=100), the index has been trending up.
4. Rates as of mid month.
Construction Backlog Indicator (Months)
Current Backlog 8.5 8.5
Backlog from a year ago 8.5 8.8
(Associated Builders & Contractors)
Construction Owner Confidence Index1
Sales Expectations 69.4
Profit Margin Expectations 62.9
Staffing Level Intentions 66.2
(Associated Builders & Contractors)
National Unemployment Rate
Overall current month 5.1% 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.9%
Overall from twelve months earlier 6.1% 5.9% 5.7% 5.8% 5.6% 5.7%
Construction current month 6.1% 5.5% 6.2% 6.2% 7.5% 8.5%
Construction from twelve months earlier 7.7% 7.0% 6.4% 7.5% 8.3% 9.8%
(Bureau of Labor Statistics - BLS)
Housing Permits and Starts
National
Permits - Total 3.5% -5.0% 4.1% 11.0% -3.9% -0.2%
Permits - Total from twelve months earlier 12.5% 4.7% 2.7% 19.5% 14.4% 13.5%
1 - Family - change from previous month 2.8% -0.3% 2.4% 1.1% 1.8% -1.6%
1 - Family - change year over year 8.7% 6.7% 9.0% 9.0% 8.0% 9.6%
5 + Units - change from previous month 4.3% -14.6% 8.3% 30.8% -13.5% 1.1%
5 + Units - change year over year 21.5% -1.3% -7.1% 38.9% 23.6% 17.9%
Starts - Total -3.0% 6.5% -11.0% 10.5% -2.5% -3.8%
Starts - Total from twelve months earlier 16.6% 17.5% -1.8% 16.5% 6.4% 1.8%
1 - Family - change from previous month -3.0% 0.3% -2.4% 7.6% -3.3% -3.9%
1 - Family - change year over year 14.9% 12.0% 2.4% 14.6% 6.1% 3.5%
5 + Units - change from previous month -2.3% 17.0% -25.5% 18.1% -3.4% -2.5%
5 + Units - change year over year 24.5% 28.6% -8.4% 21.3% 8.6% -3.8%
(U.S. Census Bureau & Dept. of Housing and Urban Dev.)
Nonresidential Construction Material Prices
Current Month -0.8% -1.6% -0.3% -0.5% -1.1% -0.8%
Change year over year -4.7% -6.0% -5.1% -4.6% -4.0% -2.7%
(Producer Price Index - PPI)
Nonresidential Construction Spending
Previous Month 0.5% 0.3% -0.1% 1.0% -0.8% -0.4%
Change year over year 12.7% 12.3% 12.4% 11.0% 10.2% 8.3%
(U.S. Census Bureau)
AIA - Architecture Billing Index2
49.1 53.7 53.1 49.3 51.3 49.6
Dodge Momentum Index - Commercial Building3
142.0 140.0 124.5 118.8 123.4 126.4
Interest Rates4
I-Month LIBOR 0.1968% 0.2011% 0.1945% 0.2084% 0.3584% 0.4255%
WSJ Prime Rate 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.50% 3.50%
5 Year US Treasury Rate 1.61% 1.34% 1.66% 1.71% 1.46% 1.23%
10 Year US Treasury Rate 2.28% 2.04% 2.27% 2.28% 2.03% 1.78%
Aug. ‘15 Sep. ‘15 Oct. ‘15 Nov. ‘15 Dec. ‘15 Jan. ‘16
2nd Qtr. ‘15
1st 1/2 ‘15
January 2016 at a Glance
3rd Qtr. ‘15