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NewBase Energy News 15 September 2020 - Issue No. 1373 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
U.A.E:ADNOC successfully completes US$1 billion institutional
placement of ADNOC distribution shares
WAM/Rasha Abubaker/Binsal AbdulKader
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, ADNOC, announced on Monday that it has successfully
completed a placement to institutional investors of 1.25 billion shares in Abu Dhabi National Oil
Company for Distribution PJSC, ADNOC Distribution, which are listed and traded on the Abu Dhabi
Securities Exchange, ADX.
This represents 10 percent of ADNOC Distribution’s total share capital. With this additional 10
percent placement, valued at US$1 billion, the company’s free float will increase to 20 percent,
contributing to improved liquidity of ADNOC Distribution shares.
At the time of ADNOC Distribution’s initial public offering in 2017, ADNOC conveyed its intention to
sell more of its shareholding in ADNOC Distribution to increase the stock’s free float and liquidity on
the ADX and provide an attractive investment opportunity, while continuing to hold a majority
strategic stake in the company.
This transaction is part of ADNOC’s stated strategy and its continued focus on value creation. The
placement was priced at AED 2.95 per share, which is 18 percent above the IPO price of AED 2.50
and represents a 5 percent discount on the company’s three-month volume weighted average price.
ADNOC will own 80 percent of ADNOC Distribution’s registered share capital following the
placement and continues to see strong and deliverable growth potential in the company.
ADNOC launched this placement due to significant investor demand for ADNOC Distribution stock
and has delivered the largest block placement of a publicly listed GCC company to date.
www.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-38b995b
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Dr. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, ADNOC Group CEO, said, "Since its initial public offering in 2017,
ADNOC Distribution has continued to deliver on its growth ambitions, introduced a range of new
customer-orientated services and enhanced its progressive dividend policy.
It has delivered solid business results and demonstrated to customers and investors its resilience
and steadfast focus on safe, smart growth. We saw significant investor demand in ADNOC
Distribution shares and quickly and efficiently responded through an institutional placement."
He continued to say, "This transaction highlights the attractive nature of ADNOC Distribution to
investors, and once again demonstrates the high quality investment opportunities offered by
ADNOC and more broadly by Abu Dhabi and the United Arab Emirates.
"For the investors, it presented a unique opportunity to access a sizeable stake in ADNOC
Distribution and invest in a stable and highly compelling equity story, with an attractive and resilient
dividend policy. It also contributes to increased liquidity in the trading of shares in ADNOC
Distribution, while broadening the shareholder base," the CEO said.
"The ADNOC Group fully supports ADNOC Distribution as a committed and long term majority
shareholder and remains confident that the company will continue to excel as a leading fuel and
convenience retailer in the region," Al Jabar added.
Citigroup Global Markets Limited and First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC acted as Joint Bookrunners on
the transaction. Moelis & Company acted as independent financial advisor to ADNOC.
ADNOC Distribution is a leading fuel distributor and convenience store operator in the United Arab
Emirates. As at 30 June 2020, ADNOC Distribution operates 406 retail fuel service stations in the
UAE and two retail fuel service stations in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
ADNOC Distribution maintains a strong balance sheet and remains well positioned to expand both
its domestic and international portfolio in line with its smart growth strategy. As of 30th June 2020,
Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
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ADNOC Distribution held AED 2.4 billion in cash and cash equivalents (including term deposits) and
AED 2.8 billion in its unutilised revolving credit facilities.
In its Q2 2020 results announcement, ADNOC Distribution confirmed that its 2020 dividend policy
is set to continue with an increase of 7.5 percent in 2020 to AED 2.57 billion, after a 62 percent
increase in the 2019 dividend to AED 2.39 billion.
The company expects to pay the first six-month dividend of 2020 (10.285 fils per share) in October
of this year, subject to board approval in accordance with the dividend policy. During its General
Assembly meeting in March 2020, the company announced an amendment to its dividend policy for
2021 onwards, setting an AED 2.57 billion dividend for 2021 and a dividend equal to at least 75
percent of distributable profits from 2022 onwards, subject to board approval in accordance with the
dividend policy.
Since announcing the expansion of its partnership and investment model and the more proactive
management of its assets and capital in 2017, designed to unlock value for the United Arab Emirates
and Abu Dhabi, ADNOC entered the debt capital markets for the first time, issuing a $3 billion bond
backed by the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline; partially floated ADNOC Distribution on the ADX, the
first-ever initial public offering of an ADNOC Group company; and entered into several strategic
partnerships in its drilling, refining, fertilizer and trading businesses, amongst others.
ADNOC also recently closed landmark
investment partnerships with leading global
institutional investors and operators in both its
oil and gas pipeline infrastructure and its real
estate infrastructure. The company is
returning to the capital markets with this
placement.
The quality and unique nature of ADNOC
Group’s assets continue to be attractive to
investors, reinforcing ADNOC’s role as a
catalyst for responsible and sustained
investment and value creation for Abu Dhabi
and the United Arab Emirates.
Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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Oman crude exports increase to Myanmar, Japan and Malaysia
Oman Observer - Jomar Mendoza
China, the dominant importer of Oman Export Blend, saw its share dip slightly by 2.58 per cent to
86.2 per cent of exports totalling 744,736 barrels per day during August 2020 versus figures for July
2020, according to the Ministry of Energy and Minerals.
India’s share too dropped 9.03 per cent m-o-m to 2.2 per cent of total exports for the month.
However, three other markets saw their shares rise in August: Japan (4.3 per cent), Myanmar (4.3
per cent) and Malaysia (3.0 per cent) ‘
According to the monthly report of the Ministry, the Sultanate’s average daily production of crude oil
during August 2020 reached 720,300 bpd, which was up 7.26 per cent m-o-m compared with July
2020. Exports of Oman Blend crude averaged 744,736 bpd, representing a decline of 4.3 per cent
over the previous month.
Oil prices for all reference
crude oil grades around the
world experienced a bullish
trend during the trading days of
August 2020 — for October
2020 delivery —compared with
trading for July 2020.
The average price of West
Texas Intermediate Crude Oil
at the New York Mercantile
Exchange (NYMEX) settled at
$42.75 per barrel, an increase
by $1.84 only. The average
price of North Sea Oil (Brent) at
the Intercontinental Exchange
(ICE) in London averaged
$45.02 per barrel, a rise by $1.80 compared with trading during July 2020.
The average price of Oman’s Crude Oil futures contract on the Dubai Mercantile Exchange similarly
increased by 1.6 per cent compared with the previous month.
The monthly official selling price for Oman Crude oil for October 2020 delivery — traded during
August 2020 — was announced to be $44.32 per barrel, rising by $0.70 compared with the July
2020 official selling price. The daily trading marker price ranged between $42.85 per barrel and
$45.74 per barrel.
“Crude oil prices experienced an overall optimistic sentiment during the trading of August 2020 due
to several factors, which had direct and positive impact on prices.
The main factors that supported positive trading sentiments were significantly the decrease in US
inventories and the devaluation of the US dollar’s exchange rate, in addition to the full commitment
of Opec+ producers with their global agreement on cuts in July.
What helped in the price increase was also a statement by US officials that China adhering to the
first stage of the trade agreement between the two countries. Also, the suspension of more than
half of the production in the offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico prior to Hurricane Laura was a
factor,” said the Ministry.
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Saudi Arbia: Sinopec holds first virtual open day event in Saudi
Sinopec + NewBase
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) held its first virtual, as well as debut
international Open Day in Saudi Arabia. A leading energy and chemical company in China, Sinopec
said the "Better Energy, Better Life" event explored its comprehensive, multi-faceted approach to
sustainability.
This online Sinopec Open Day event highlighted the Chinese firm's milestones since its entry into
Saudi Arabia in 2000 and provided updates while inviting questions from the global audience.
For over two decades, Sinopec has consistently provided high-quality engineering, technology, and
refining services for the Saudi petroleum and petrochemical industry, as well as supplied petroleum
and petrochemical equipment, products, and services.
Sinopec, along with local partners, launched a world-class joint venture and cooperation refinery
plant. In 2000, the company established its first drilling rig in the country; now, it oversees nearly
70 rigs. With its safe, efficient construction, Sinopec has established a positive reputation in Saudi
Arabia.
To propel the development of drilling technology, it set up Sinopec Tech Middle East in Saudi
Arabia's Dhahran Techno Valley in 2017, the first Chinese R&D centre in the country. This reflected
Sinopec's commitment to becoming the world's leading clean energy chemical company through
greater cooperation with local communities and the government.
Sinopec pointed out that it was currently carrying out a four-year 3D geophysical prospecting project
in the country, with over 1,000 project personnel combating average highs of 50° Celsius of daily
basis in a desert zone covering more than 200 sq km.
Since entering Saudi Arabia in 2004, the Sinopec Exploration team has completed nine geophysical
prospecting projects marked by its leading technology and outstanding health safety and
environment performance. In 2008, the Sinopec Training Center opened in Saudi Arabia to train
local petroleum engineering personnel.
As Sinopec's first overseas training center, it has since hosted 1,310 training courses and trained
over 30,000 employees, in addition to cooperating with Saudi Aramco Training and multinational
training institutions, said the company. The facility is also an important venue for Sino-Arab cultural
exchange with a Silk Road bookstore for students to learn about Chinese culture, it added.
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Europe aims for 80% Green generated electricity by 2030
Zawya + NewBase
As much as 80 per cent of the European Union's electricity could be fossil fuel-free by 2030,
regardless of whether the European economy faces a prolonged economic crisis, industry
association Eurelectric has said.
Eurelectric represents European national electricity associations and leading national electricity
companies.
Reuters reported that in the first half of this year, two thirds of electricity generated in the EU was
carbon-free. Renewables generation accounted for 40 per cent of the electricity mix and fossil fuel
generation dropped by 18 per cent year-on-year to 34 per cent, it said in a report.
A decade ago, renewables accounted for 20 per cent of the EU's electricity mix and last year they
accounted for 34 per cent.
"This year, the power sector has proven its crucial value for society by providing hospitals,
government offices and millions of home-working Europeans with clean and reliable power
throughout the pandemic," said Kristian Ruby, secretary general of Eurelectric.
"In order to meet the 2030 targets, or go even further, we must urgently remove the specific barriers
holding back the progress on the ground," he added.
To meet the EU's 2030 climate targets, wind and solar capacity must double and obstacles must be
overcome.
Recently, restrictions due to the Covid-19 pandemic have delayed many projects and permitting
procedures are slowing down progress. Electric car infrastructure also needs to be rolled out and
the growth in coal imports needs to be stopped, the report said.
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U.S.:hydroelectric to increase in 2020 despite drought conditions
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook
In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
forecasts that electricity generation from hydroelectric power plants in the United States will grow
by 4% in 2020 from 2019 levels, to 280 billion kilowatthours, despite current drought conditions and
extensive wildfires in parts of the country, including in the Pacific Northwest.
States in the Pacific Northwest, home to the Columbia River Basin, are the largest hydroelectric
power producers in the United States. Idaho, Montana, Oregon, and Washington, the four states
that make up the Pacific Northwest, generated 47% of all U.S. hydroelectric power in the first half
of 2020. As such, drought conditions in these states can have noticeable impacts on overall U.S.
hydroelectric generation, especially if the drought is severe or long lasting.
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Many factors affect how much water is available to generate hydroelectric power, including
precipitation levels in current and previous years. Seasonal precipitation for the 2020 water year
(October 2019 to September 2020) has been mixed in the Columbia River Basin.
Most of the stations in the eastern half of the basin have reported between 70% and 130% of normal
precipitation, and some stations in the western half have reported less than 50% of normal
precipitation.
As of September 2020, 14 counties in Oregon and 4 counties in Idaho have issued drought
emergency declarations. This year’s droughts, however, aren’t expected to have noticeable impacts
on hydroelectric power production because reservoirs in the region have stored water from near-
normal to above-normal precipitation in recent years.
According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Water and Climate
Center (NWCC), which
produces a comprehensive
database on water supply
conditions (including reservoir
storage), reservoirs in most of
the states in the Pacific
Northwest have been able to
retain precipitation from recent
years. As of the end of August
2020, reported reservoir storage
levels were at or higher than the
30-year (1981–2010) normal in
Washington, Idaho, and
Montana. In Oregon, reported
reservoir storage was at 37% of
maximum capacity, lower than
the historical average of 45%.
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So far this year, monthly hydropower generation in these states has been within the 10-year (2010–
2019) historical range, with the exception of April’s hydropower generation in Oregon, which was
10% lower than the 2010–2019 monthly range. If the 2021 water year has near-normal precipitation
levels, impacts from this drought could be minimal.
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NewBase September 15-2020 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Oil slips as bleaker demand outlook weighs on sentiment
Reuters + NewBase
Oil prices slipped on Tuesday as worries over slow recovery in global fuel demand were reinforced
by warnings by major oil producers, but short-covering ahead of a meeting later this week of OPEC
and its allies, known as OPEC+, limited losses.
Brent crude LCOc1 was down 5 cents, or 0.1%, at $39.56 a barrel by 0407 GMT, while U.S. West
Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were down 3 cents, or 0.1%, at $37.23 a barrel.
Both contracts ended slightly lower the previous day.
“Sentiment in oil markets remained gloomy due to bleak demand outlook by oil producers and as a
resurgence in COVID-19 cases in many countries fuelled concerns over slower pick-up in global
fuel demand,” said Chiyoki Chen, chief analyst at Sunward Trading.
Oil price special
coverage
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“Brent and WTI are likely to stay between $35 and $40 a barrel until U.S. demand for heating oil
starts picking up as the peak driving season has ended,” he said.
Major oil industry producers and traders are forecasting a bleak future for worldwide fuel demand,
due to the pandemic’s ongoing assault on the global economy, with OPEC downgrading its oil
demand forecast and BP citing demand might have peaked in 2019.
World oil demand will tumble by 9.46 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, ( to aprox.90.50 MBPD )
the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a monthly report, more than
the 9.06 million bpd decline expected a month ago.
Worries over an increase in global supply after Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar committed to
ending a months-long blockade of oil facilities also dented risk appetite. “Still, some investors
moved to cash in profitable short positions ahead of the OPEC+ meeting,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa,
general manager of research at Nissan Securities.
Investors look to the joint ministerial monitoring committee (JMMC) by OPEC+ on Thursday to
discuss compliance with deep cuts in production, although analysts do not expect further reductions
to be made despite Brent prices falling below $40 per barrel in recent days.
Concerns over supply disruptions in the United States from an impending storm also provided some
support.
Energy companies, ports and refiners raced on Monday to shut down as Hurricane Sally grew
stronger while lumbering toward the central U.S. Gulf Coast, the second significant hurricane to
shutter oil and gas activity in the past month.
“Still, the support is limited as oil prices came off quickly after the first hurricane passed, with energy
companies being able to make proper preparations ahead of time,” Sunward’s Chen said.
Meanwhile, China’s crude oil throughput in August rose from a year ago, reaching the second-
highest on record, as refineries worked to digest record imports brought in earlier this year.
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OPEC Sees Weaker Outlook as Demand Falters, Shale Recovers
OPEC downgraded its outlook for the global oil market a few days before ministers meet, amid
faltering demand and signs of a recovery in supply from U.S. shale drillers.
The figures raise questions about the group’s decision to ease production cuts last month. The
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries added 760,000 barrels a day to global markets in
August, just as its analysts were revising down demand for its crude by more than 1 million barrels
a day.
OPEC and its allies will hold an online monitoring meeting on Thursday to assess whether the vast
production curbs they’ve been making are still sufficient to stave off an oil glut as the resurgence of
coronavirus batters the world economy.
Oil prices slipped further below $40 a barrel in London on Monday, close to their lowest in more
than two months, as companies from BP Plc to Trafigura Group made ominous predictions about
consumption.
OPEC+, the 23-nation alliance spanning cartel nations like Saudi Arabia and non-members such as
Russia, had agreed to taper some of the supply cutbacks made during the depths of the pandemic
amid expectations that economic activity was recovering.
This month’s report from the organization’s secretariat in Vienna suggests the move might have
been premature.
Demand Collapse
OPEC reduced forecasts for global oil demand for each quarter to the end of next year by an
average of 768,000 barrels a day. As a result, consumption is on track to collapse by an
unprecedented 9.46 million barrels a day in 2020, averaging 90.23 million a day.
The group simultaneously raised projections for production outside OPEC over the next five
quarters by an average of 394,000 barrels a day, mostly because of a stronger outlook for the U.S.
The combination of the softer consumption forecasts and more robust non-OPEC supply numbers
depresses the requirement for crude from the cartel. The organization revised down estimated
demand for its crude next year by 1.1 million barrels a day to 28.2 million a day.
While OPEC is producing far below this level because of its agreement to curb supply, the revisions
indicate that the world’s bloated oil inventories will subside more slowly than previously thought.
The group’s 13 members pumped an average of just over 24 million barrels a day in August, the
report showed. To satisfy demand in the coming months, they would need to produce more than 28
million barrels a day, and the same for much of 2021, suggesting that inventories should still decline
substantially.
The organization, which has shaped global oil markets from the Arab nations’ embargo of 1973 to
the record supply cuts of this year’s pandemic, turned 60 on Monday.
The decades ahead could bring a further test.
U.K. energy giant BP said the relentless growth of oil demand is over, becoming the first supermajor
to call the end of an era many thought would last another decade or more. Oil consumption may
never return to levels seen before the coronavirus crisis took hold, the company said in a report on
Monday.
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NewBase Special Coverage
The Energy world - Special 14- September -2020
BP Says the Era of Oil-Demand Growth Is Over
Bloomberg - Rakteem Katakey
BP Plc said the relentless growth of oil demand is over, becoming the first supermajor to call the
end of an era many thought would last another decade or more.
Oil consumption may never return to levels seen before the coronavirus crisis took hold, BP said in
a report on Monday. Even its most bullish scenario sees demand no better than “broadly flat” for the
next two decades as the energy transition shifts the world away from fossil fuels.
Getting Weaker
BP says oil demand may have peaked already
Source: BP
BP is making a profound break from orthodoxy. From the bosses of corporate energy giants to
ministers from OPEC states, senior figures from the industry have insisted that oil consumption will
see decades of growth. Time and again, they have described it as the only commodity that can
satisfy the demands of an increasing global population and expanding middle class.
The U.K. giant is describing a different future, where oil’s supremacy is challenged, and ultimately
fades. That explains why BP has taken the boldest steps so far among peers to align its business
with the goals of the Paris climate accord.
Just six months after taking the top job, Chief Executive Officer Bernard Looney said in August he’d
shrink oil and gas output by 40% over the next decade and spend as much as $5 billion a year
building one of the world’s largest renewable-power businesses.
That’s because he suspects oil use may already have peaked as a result of the pandemic, stricter
government policies and changes in consumer behavior. BP’s energy outlook shows consumption
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slumping 50% by 2050 in one scenario, and by almost 80% in another. In a “business-as-usual”
situation, demand would recover but then flatline near 100 million barrels a day for the next 20 years.
BP isn’t the only big oil company adapting its business to the energy transition. Royal Dutch Shell
Plc, Total SE and others in Europe have announced similar pivots toward cleaner operations as
customers, governments and investors increasingly call for change.
Three Possible Futures
BP’s report comes ahead of three days of online briefings starting Monday on its clean-energy and
climate strategy. The study considers three scenarios, which aren’t predictions but nevertheless
cover a wide range of possible outcomes over the next 30 years and form the basis of the new
strategy Looney announced in August.
The “Rapid” approach sees new policy measures leading to a significant increase in carbon prices.
The “Net Zero” course reinforces Rapid with big shifts in societal behavior, while the “Business-as-
usual” projection assumes that government policies, technology and social preferences continue to
evolve as they have in the recent past.
In the first two scenarios, oil demand falls as a result of the coronavirus, the report shows. “It
subsequently recovers but never back to pre-Covid levels,” according to Spencer Dale, BP’s chief
economist. “It brings forward the point at which oil demand peaks to 2019.”
That contrasts with what many others are forecasting. Russell Hardy, chief executive officer of
trading giant Vitol Group, said on Monday that oil demand is poised for 10 years of growth before a
steady decline. He predicts consumption will return to pre-virus levels by the end of next year.
BP’s outlook last year contained a scenario called “More energy,” which had oil demand growing
steadily to about 130 million barrels a day in 2040. There’s no such scenario this time.
“Demand for oil falls over the next 30 years,” BP said in the report. “The scale and pace of this
decline is driven by the increasing efficiency and electrification of road transportation.”
Covid Impact
The pandemic shattered oil consumption this year as countries locked down to prevent infections
from spreading. While demand has since improved, and crude prices with it, the public health crisis
is still raging in many parts of the world and the outlook remains uncertain in the absence of a
vaccine.
The impact, including lasting behavioral changes like increased working from home, will affect
economic activity and prosperity in the developing world, and ultimately demand for liquid fuels,
according to BP. That means it won’t be able to offset already falling consumption in developed
countries.
Demand for liquid fuels is seen falling to less than 55 million barrels a day by 2050 in BP’s Rapid
scenario, and to around 30 million a day in Net Zero. The drop is mostly in developed economies
and in China. In India, other parts of Asia and Africa, demand remains broadly flat in the first scenario
but slips below 2018 levels from the mid-2030s in the second.
Other points in the energy outlook:
 The Rapid scenario has carbon emissions from energy use falling by around 70% by 2050,
while they drop by more than 95% in Net Zero. Business-as-usual sees them peaking in the
mid-2020s.
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 Demand for all primary energy -- the raw materials from which energy is derived -- increases
by about 10% in Rapid and Net Zero in the period, and by around 25% in the third scenario.
 In Rapid, non-fossil fuels account for the majority of global energy from the early 2040s.
 Growth in China’s energy demand slows sharply relative to past trends, reaching a peak in
the early 2030s in all three scenarios.
 Renewable energy -- excluding hydro -- increases more than 10-fold in both Rapid and Net
Zero, with its share in primary energy rising from 5% in 2018 to more than 40% by 2050 in
Rapid and almost 60% in Net Zero.
 Natural gas consumption is seen broadly unchanged to 2050 in Rapid and around 35%
higher in business-as-usual. Demand falls by about 40% by 2050 in Net Zero.
Europe’s top oil and gas companies, which account for roughly 7% of global crude consumption,
have committed themselves to greenhouse gas emission reduction targets which vary in scope and
detail, making them hard for investors to compare.
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Many climate ambitions among oil majors relate to results three decades into the future and depend
on carbon offsets, whose availability is finite, and carbon capture and storage, a technology not
currently deployed at commercial scale.
What does this mean, say, for the carbon footprint of a car driver at a petrol station?
If we take BP as an example, emissions from its own barrels, from wellhead to passenger car
exhaust, amount to around 415 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent a year. BP says it will
reduce these emissions - roughly the same as Britain’s annual emissions - to net zero by 2050.
The net zero target does not cover crude and refined products that BP trades but which are initially
brought out of the ground by other producers, a total which is much larger than the oil and gas BP
produces itself. It says it aims to halve the carbon density of all energy that it trades by 2050.
BP’s peer Royal Dutch Shell has the oil and gas sector’s broadest plan to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions to net zero by 2050, although it depends on pivoting “towards serving businesses and
sectors that by 2050 are also net-zero emissions”.
Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17
This means Shell relies on its customers’ choices to reach its aim.
French major Total pledged to cut to zero the greenhouse gas emissions from its operations, such
as oil fields, globally by 2050. Such emissions from a group’s operations and from the electricity
used for them are also known as Scope 1 and 2.
But its broader 2050 net zero carbon plan covering emissions from fuels made from the oil and gas
it extracts, such as gasoline, and sold to customers - also known as Scope 3 - only applies to
Europe.
As for emissions from its global fuel sales, it wants to reduce the carbon intensity of energy products
used by Total customers by 2050 to less than 27.5 grammes CO2 equivalent per megajoule.
An intensity-based target allows for absolute emissions to increase if volumes sold go up.
Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18
Equinor has also pledged to halve the intensity of the energy products it produces and sells by 2050,
but its methodology is based on its equity oil and gas output, rather than every drop of fuel it sells.
Eni, conversely, committed to cut its absolute emissions from all products it sells by 80% and said
its oil output would shrink from 2025.
Still, European oil and gas producers’ climate ambitions are way ahead of their U.S. peers
ExxonMobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips.
Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 19
NewBase Energy News 15 September 2020 - Issue No. 1373 call on +971504822502, UAE
The Editor:” Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced Twice a week and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscriptions, please email us.
About: Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
www.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-38b995b
Mobile: +971504822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net or khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with over 30 years of experience in the Oil & Gas
sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General
Petroleum Corp. “Emarat “with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC
area via Hawk Energy Service, as the UAE operations base. Khaled is the Founder
of NewBase Energy, and an international consultant, advisor, ecopreneur and
journalist with expertise in Gas & Oil pipeline Networks, waste management, waste-
to-energy, renewable energy, environment protection and sustainable development.
His geographical areas of focus include Middle East, Africa and Asia. Khaled has
successfully accomplished a wide range of projects in the areas of Gas & Oil with
extensive works on Gas Pipeline Network Facilities & gas compressor stations.
Executed projects in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering &
regulating stations and in the engineering of gas/oil supply routes. Has drafted &
finalized many contracts/agreements in products sale, transportation, operation & maintenance agreements.
Along with many MOUs & JVs for organizations & governments authorities. Currently dealing for biomass
energy, biogas, waste-to-energy, recycling and waste management. He has participated in numerous
conferences and workshops as chairman, session chair, keynote speaker and panelist. Khaled is the Editor-
in-Chief of NewBase Energy News and is a professional environmental writer with more than 1400 popular
articles to his credit. He is proactively engaged in creating mass awareness on renewable energy, waste
management and environmental sustainability in different parts of the world. Khaled has become a reference
for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences and for many Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC
leading satellite Channels. Khaled can be reached at any time, see contact details above.
NewBase: For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
NewBase 2020 K. Al Awadi
Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 20
Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 21
Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 22
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New base energy news 15 september 2020 issue no. 1373 by senior editor khaled alawadi

  • 1. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase Energy News 15 September 2020 - Issue No. 1373 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE U.A.E:ADNOC successfully completes US$1 billion institutional placement of ADNOC distribution shares WAM/Rasha Abubaker/Binsal AbdulKader Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, ADNOC, announced on Monday that it has successfully completed a placement to institutional investors of 1.25 billion shares in Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC, ADNOC Distribution, which are listed and traded on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange, ADX. This represents 10 percent of ADNOC Distribution’s total share capital. With this additional 10 percent placement, valued at US$1 billion, the company’s free float will increase to 20 percent, contributing to improved liquidity of ADNOC Distribution shares. At the time of ADNOC Distribution’s initial public offering in 2017, ADNOC conveyed its intention to sell more of its shareholding in ADNOC Distribution to increase the stock’s free float and liquidity on the ADX and provide an attractive investment opportunity, while continuing to hold a majority strategic stake in the company. This transaction is part of ADNOC’s stated strategy and its continued focus on value creation. The placement was priced at AED 2.95 per share, which is 18 percent above the IPO price of AED 2.50 and represents a 5 percent discount on the company’s three-month volume weighted average price. ADNOC will own 80 percent of ADNOC Distribution’s registered share capital following the placement and continues to see strong and deliverable growth potential in the company. ADNOC launched this placement due to significant investor demand for ADNOC Distribution stock and has delivered the largest block placement of a publicly listed GCC company to date. www.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-38b995b
  • 2. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2 Dr. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, ADNOC Group CEO, said, "Since its initial public offering in 2017, ADNOC Distribution has continued to deliver on its growth ambitions, introduced a range of new customer-orientated services and enhanced its progressive dividend policy. It has delivered solid business results and demonstrated to customers and investors its resilience and steadfast focus on safe, smart growth. We saw significant investor demand in ADNOC Distribution shares and quickly and efficiently responded through an institutional placement." He continued to say, "This transaction highlights the attractive nature of ADNOC Distribution to investors, and once again demonstrates the high quality investment opportunities offered by ADNOC and more broadly by Abu Dhabi and the United Arab Emirates. "For the investors, it presented a unique opportunity to access a sizeable stake in ADNOC Distribution and invest in a stable and highly compelling equity story, with an attractive and resilient dividend policy. It also contributes to increased liquidity in the trading of shares in ADNOC Distribution, while broadening the shareholder base," the CEO said. "The ADNOC Group fully supports ADNOC Distribution as a committed and long term majority shareholder and remains confident that the company will continue to excel as a leading fuel and convenience retailer in the region," Al Jabar added. Citigroup Global Markets Limited and First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC acted as Joint Bookrunners on the transaction. Moelis & Company acted as independent financial advisor to ADNOC. ADNOC Distribution is a leading fuel distributor and convenience store operator in the United Arab Emirates. As at 30 June 2020, ADNOC Distribution operates 406 retail fuel service stations in the UAE and two retail fuel service stations in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. ADNOC Distribution maintains a strong balance sheet and remains well positioned to expand both its domestic and international portfolio in line with its smart growth strategy. As of 30th June 2020,
  • 3. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3 ADNOC Distribution held AED 2.4 billion in cash and cash equivalents (including term deposits) and AED 2.8 billion in its unutilised revolving credit facilities. In its Q2 2020 results announcement, ADNOC Distribution confirmed that its 2020 dividend policy is set to continue with an increase of 7.5 percent in 2020 to AED 2.57 billion, after a 62 percent increase in the 2019 dividend to AED 2.39 billion. The company expects to pay the first six-month dividend of 2020 (10.285 fils per share) in October of this year, subject to board approval in accordance with the dividend policy. During its General Assembly meeting in March 2020, the company announced an amendment to its dividend policy for 2021 onwards, setting an AED 2.57 billion dividend for 2021 and a dividend equal to at least 75 percent of distributable profits from 2022 onwards, subject to board approval in accordance with the dividend policy. Since announcing the expansion of its partnership and investment model and the more proactive management of its assets and capital in 2017, designed to unlock value for the United Arab Emirates and Abu Dhabi, ADNOC entered the debt capital markets for the first time, issuing a $3 billion bond backed by the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline; partially floated ADNOC Distribution on the ADX, the first-ever initial public offering of an ADNOC Group company; and entered into several strategic partnerships in its drilling, refining, fertilizer and trading businesses, amongst others. ADNOC also recently closed landmark investment partnerships with leading global institutional investors and operators in both its oil and gas pipeline infrastructure and its real estate infrastructure. The company is returning to the capital markets with this placement. The quality and unique nature of ADNOC Group’s assets continue to be attractive to investors, reinforcing ADNOC’s role as a catalyst for responsible and sustained investment and value creation for Abu Dhabi and the United Arab Emirates.
  • 4. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4 Oman crude exports increase to Myanmar, Japan and Malaysia Oman Observer - Jomar Mendoza China, the dominant importer of Oman Export Blend, saw its share dip slightly by 2.58 per cent to 86.2 per cent of exports totalling 744,736 barrels per day during August 2020 versus figures for July 2020, according to the Ministry of Energy and Minerals. India’s share too dropped 9.03 per cent m-o-m to 2.2 per cent of total exports for the month. However, three other markets saw their shares rise in August: Japan (4.3 per cent), Myanmar (4.3 per cent) and Malaysia (3.0 per cent) ‘ According to the monthly report of the Ministry, the Sultanate’s average daily production of crude oil during August 2020 reached 720,300 bpd, which was up 7.26 per cent m-o-m compared with July 2020. Exports of Oman Blend crude averaged 744,736 bpd, representing a decline of 4.3 per cent over the previous month. Oil prices for all reference crude oil grades around the world experienced a bullish trend during the trading days of August 2020 — for October 2020 delivery —compared with trading for July 2020. The average price of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) settled at $42.75 per barrel, an increase by $1.84 only. The average price of North Sea Oil (Brent) at the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in London averaged $45.02 per barrel, a rise by $1.80 compared with trading during July 2020. The average price of Oman’s Crude Oil futures contract on the Dubai Mercantile Exchange similarly increased by 1.6 per cent compared with the previous month. The monthly official selling price for Oman Crude oil for October 2020 delivery — traded during August 2020 — was announced to be $44.32 per barrel, rising by $0.70 compared with the July 2020 official selling price. The daily trading marker price ranged between $42.85 per barrel and $45.74 per barrel. “Crude oil prices experienced an overall optimistic sentiment during the trading of August 2020 due to several factors, which had direct and positive impact on prices. The main factors that supported positive trading sentiments were significantly the decrease in US inventories and the devaluation of the US dollar’s exchange rate, in addition to the full commitment of Opec+ producers with their global agreement on cuts in July. What helped in the price increase was also a statement by US officials that China adhering to the first stage of the trade agreement between the two countries. Also, the suspension of more than half of the production in the offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico prior to Hurricane Laura was a factor,” said the Ministry.
  • 5. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5 Saudi Arbia: Sinopec holds first virtual open day event in Saudi Sinopec + NewBase China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) held its first virtual, as well as debut international Open Day in Saudi Arabia. A leading energy and chemical company in China, Sinopec said the "Better Energy, Better Life" event explored its comprehensive, multi-faceted approach to sustainability. This online Sinopec Open Day event highlighted the Chinese firm's milestones since its entry into Saudi Arabia in 2000 and provided updates while inviting questions from the global audience. For over two decades, Sinopec has consistently provided high-quality engineering, technology, and refining services for the Saudi petroleum and petrochemical industry, as well as supplied petroleum and petrochemical equipment, products, and services. Sinopec, along with local partners, launched a world-class joint venture and cooperation refinery plant. In 2000, the company established its first drilling rig in the country; now, it oversees nearly 70 rigs. With its safe, efficient construction, Sinopec has established a positive reputation in Saudi Arabia. To propel the development of drilling technology, it set up Sinopec Tech Middle East in Saudi Arabia's Dhahran Techno Valley in 2017, the first Chinese R&D centre in the country. This reflected Sinopec's commitment to becoming the world's leading clean energy chemical company through greater cooperation with local communities and the government. Sinopec pointed out that it was currently carrying out a four-year 3D geophysical prospecting project in the country, with over 1,000 project personnel combating average highs of 50° Celsius of daily basis in a desert zone covering more than 200 sq km. Since entering Saudi Arabia in 2004, the Sinopec Exploration team has completed nine geophysical prospecting projects marked by its leading technology and outstanding health safety and environment performance. In 2008, the Sinopec Training Center opened in Saudi Arabia to train local petroleum engineering personnel. As Sinopec's first overseas training center, it has since hosted 1,310 training courses and trained over 30,000 employees, in addition to cooperating with Saudi Aramco Training and multinational training institutions, said the company. The facility is also an important venue for Sino-Arab cultural exchange with a Silk Road bookstore for students to learn about Chinese culture, it added.
  • 6. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6 Europe aims for 80% Green generated electricity by 2030 Zawya + NewBase As much as 80 per cent of the European Union's electricity could be fossil fuel-free by 2030, regardless of whether the European economy faces a prolonged economic crisis, industry association Eurelectric has said. Eurelectric represents European national electricity associations and leading national electricity companies. Reuters reported that in the first half of this year, two thirds of electricity generated in the EU was carbon-free. Renewables generation accounted for 40 per cent of the electricity mix and fossil fuel generation dropped by 18 per cent year-on-year to 34 per cent, it said in a report. A decade ago, renewables accounted for 20 per cent of the EU's electricity mix and last year they accounted for 34 per cent. "This year, the power sector has proven its crucial value for society by providing hospitals, government offices and millions of home-working Europeans with clean and reliable power throughout the pandemic," said Kristian Ruby, secretary general of Eurelectric. "In order to meet the 2030 targets, or go even further, we must urgently remove the specific barriers holding back the progress on the ground," he added. To meet the EU's 2030 climate targets, wind and solar capacity must double and obstacles must be overcome. Recently, restrictions due to the Covid-19 pandemic have delayed many projects and permitting procedures are slowing down progress. Electric car infrastructure also needs to be rolled out and the growth in coal imports needs to be stopped, the report said.
  • 7. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7 U.S.:hydroelectric to increase in 2020 despite drought conditions Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that electricity generation from hydroelectric power plants in the United States will grow by 4% in 2020 from 2019 levels, to 280 billion kilowatthours, despite current drought conditions and extensive wildfires in parts of the country, including in the Pacific Northwest. States in the Pacific Northwest, home to the Columbia River Basin, are the largest hydroelectric power producers in the United States. Idaho, Montana, Oregon, and Washington, the four states that make up the Pacific Northwest, generated 47% of all U.S. hydroelectric power in the first half of 2020. As such, drought conditions in these states can have noticeable impacts on overall U.S. hydroelectric generation, especially if the drought is severe or long lasting.
  • 8. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8 Many factors affect how much water is available to generate hydroelectric power, including precipitation levels in current and previous years. Seasonal precipitation for the 2020 water year (October 2019 to September 2020) has been mixed in the Columbia River Basin. Most of the stations in the eastern half of the basin have reported between 70% and 130% of normal precipitation, and some stations in the western half have reported less than 50% of normal precipitation. As of September 2020, 14 counties in Oregon and 4 counties in Idaho have issued drought emergency declarations. This year’s droughts, however, aren’t expected to have noticeable impacts on hydroelectric power production because reservoirs in the region have stored water from near- normal to above-normal precipitation in recent years. According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Water and Climate Center (NWCC), which produces a comprehensive database on water supply conditions (including reservoir storage), reservoirs in most of the states in the Pacific Northwest have been able to retain precipitation from recent years. As of the end of August 2020, reported reservoir storage levels were at or higher than the 30-year (1981–2010) normal in Washington, Idaho, and Montana. In Oregon, reported reservoir storage was at 37% of maximum capacity, lower than the historical average of 45%.
  • 9. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9 So far this year, monthly hydropower generation in these states has been within the 10-year (2010– 2019) historical range, with the exception of April’s hydropower generation in Oregon, which was 10% lower than the 2010–2019 monthly range. If the 2021 water year has near-normal precipitation levels, impacts from this drought could be minimal.
  • 10. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 10 NewBase September 15-2020 Khaled Al Awadi NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Oil slips as bleaker demand outlook weighs on sentiment Reuters + NewBase Oil prices slipped on Tuesday as worries over slow recovery in global fuel demand were reinforced by warnings by major oil producers, but short-covering ahead of a meeting later this week of OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, limited losses. Brent crude LCOc1 was down 5 cents, or 0.1%, at $39.56 a barrel by 0407 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were down 3 cents, or 0.1%, at $37.23 a barrel. Both contracts ended slightly lower the previous day. “Sentiment in oil markets remained gloomy due to bleak demand outlook by oil producers and as a resurgence in COVID-19 cases in many countries fuelled concerns over slower pick-up in global fuel demand,” said Chiyoki Chen, chief analyst at Sunward Trading. Oil price special coverage
  • 11. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 11 “Brent and WTI are likely to stay between $35 and $40 a barrel until U.S. demand for heating oil starts picking up as the peak driving season has ended,” he said. Major oil industry producers and traders are forecasting a bleak future for worldwide fuel demand, due to the pandemic’s ongoing assault on the global economy, with OPEC downgrading its oil demand forecast and BP citing demand might have peaked in 2019. World oil demand will tumble by 9.46 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, ( to aprox.90.50 MBPD ) the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a monthly report, more than the 9.06 million bpd decline expected a month ago. Worries over an increase in global supply after Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar committed to ending a months-long blockade of oil facilities also dented risk appetite. “Still, some investors moved to cash in profitable short positions ahead of the OPEC+ meeting,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, general manager of research at Nissan Securities. Investors look to the joint ministerial monitoring committee (JMMC) by OPEC+ on Thursday to discuss compliance with deep cuts in production, although analysts do not expect further reductions to be made despite Brent prices falling below $40 per barrel in recent days. Concerns over supply disruptions in the United States from an impending storm also provided some support. Energy companies, ports and refiners raced on Monday to shut down as Hurricane Sally grew stronger while lumbering toward the central U.S. Gulf Coast, the second significant hurricane to shutter oil and gas activity in the past month. “Still, the support is limited as oil prices came off quickly after the first hurricane passed, with energy companies being able to make proper preparations ahead of time,” Sunward’s Chen said. Meanwhile, China’s crude oil throughput in August rose from a year ago, reaching the second- highest on record, as refineries worked to digest record imports brought in earlier this year.
  • 12. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12 OPEC Sees Weaker Outlook as Demand Falters, Shale Recovers OPEC downgraded its outlook for the global oil market a few days before ministers meet, amid faltering demand and signs of a recovery in supply from U.S. shale drillers. The figures raise questions about the group’s decision to ease production cuts last month. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries added 760,000 barrels a day to global markets in August, just as its analysts were revising down demand for its crude by more than 1 million barrels a day. OPEC and its allies will hold an online monitoring meeting on Thursday to assess whether the vast production curbs they’ve been making are still sufficient to stave off an oil glut as the resurgence of coronavirus batters the world economy. Oil prices slipped further below $40 a barrel in London on Monday, close to their lowest in more than two months, as companies from BP Plc to Trafigura Group made ominous predictions about consumption. OPEC+, the 23-nation alliance spanning cartel nations like Saudi Arabia and non-members such as Russia, had agreed to taper some of the supply cutbacks made during the depths of the pandemic amid expectations that economic activity was recovering. This month’s report from the organization’s secretariat in Vienna suggests the move might have been premature. Demand Collapse OPEC reduced forecasts for global oil demand for each quarter to the end of next year by an average of 768,000 barrels a day. As a result, consumption is on track to collapse by an unprecedented 9.46 million barrels a day in 2020, averaging 90.23 million a day. The group simultaneously raised projections for production outside OPEC over the next five quarters by an average of 394,000 barrels a day, mostly because of a stronger outlook for the U.S. The combination of the softer consumption forecasts and more robust non-OPEC supply numbers depresses the requirement for crude from the cartel. The organization revised down estimated demand for its crude next year by 1.1 million barrels a day to 28.2 million a day. While OPEC is producing far below this level because of its agreement to curb supply, the revisions indicate that the world’s bloated oil inventories will subside more slowly than previously thought. The group’s 13 members pumped an average of just over 24 million barrels a day in August, the report showed. To satisfy demand in the coming months, they would need to produce more than 28 million barrels a day, and the same for much of 2021, suggesting that inventories should still decline substantially. The organization, which has shaped global oil markets from the Arab nations’ embargo of 1973 to the record supply cuts of this year’s pandemic, turned 60 on Monday. The decades ahead could bring a further test. U.K. energy giant BP said the relentless growth of oil demand is over, becoming the first supermajor to call the end of an era many thought would last another decade or more. Oil consumption may never return to levels seen before the coronavirus crisis took hold, the company said in a report on Monday.
  • 13. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 13 NewBase Special Coverage The Energy world - Special 14- September -2020 BP Says the Era of Oil-Demand Growth Is Over Bloomberg - Rakteem Katakey BP Plc said the relentless growth of oil demand is over, becoming the first supermajor to call the end of an era many thought would last another decade or more. Oil consumption may never return to levels seen before the coronavirus crisis took hold, BP said in a report on Monday. Even its most bullish scenario sees demand no better than “broadly flat” for the next two decades as the energy transition shifts the world away from fossil fuels. Getting Weaker BP says oil demand may have peaked already Source: BP BP is making a profound break from orthodoxy. From the bosses of corporate energy giants to ministers from OPEC states, senior figures from the industry have insisted that oil consumption will see decades of growth. Time and again, they have described it as the only commodity that can satisfy the demands of an increasing global population and expanding middle class. The U.K. giant is describing a different future, where oil’s supremacy is challenged, and ultimately fades. That explains why BP has taken the boldest steps so far among peers to align its business with the goals of the Paris climate accord. Just six months after taking the top job, Chief Executive Officer Bernard Looney said in August he’d shrink oil and gas output by 40% over the next decade and spend as much as $5 billion a year building one of the world’s largest renewable-power businesses. That’s because he suspects oil use may already have peaked as a result of the pandemic, stricter government policies and changes in consumer behavior. BP’s energy outlook shows consumption
  • 14. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 14 slumping 50% by 2050 in one scenario, and by almost 80% in another. In a “business-as-usual” situation, demand would recover but then flatline near 100 million barrels a day for the next 20 years. BP isn’t the only big oil company adapting its business to the energy transition. Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Total SE and others in Europe have announced similar pivots toward cleaner operations as customers, governments and investors increasingly call for change. Three Possible Futures BP’s report comes ahead of three days of online briefings starting Monday on its clean-energy and climate strategy. The study considers three scenarios, which aren’t predictions but nevertheless cover a wide range of possible outcomes over the next 30 years and form the basis of the new strategy Looney announced in August. The “Rapid” approach sees new policy measures leading to a significant increase in carbon prices. The “Net Zero” course reinforces Rapid with big shifts in societal behavior, while the “Business-as- usual” projection assumes that government policies, technology and social preferences continue to evolve as they have in the recent past. In the first two scenarios, oil demand falls as a result of the coronavirus, the report shows. “It subsequently recovers but never back to pre-Covid levels,” according to Spencer Dale, BP’s chief economist. “It brings forward the point at which oil demand peaks to 2019.” That contrasts with what many others are forecasting. Russell Hardy, chief executive officer of trading giant Vitol Group, said on Monday that oil demand is poised for 10 years of growth before a steady decline. He predicts consumption will return to pre-virus levels by the end of next year. BP’s outlook last year contained a scenario called “More energy,” which had oil demand growing steadily to about 130 million barrels a day in 2040. There’s no such scenario this time. “Demand for oil falls over the next 30 years,” BP said in the report. “The scale and pace of this decline is driven by the increasing efficiency and electrification of road transportation.” Covid Impact The pandemic shattered oil consumption this year as countries locked down to prevent infections from spreading. While demand has since improved, and crude prices with it, the public health crisis is still raging in many parts of the world and the outlook remains uncertain in the absence of a vaccine. The impact, including lasting behavioral changes like increased working from home, will affect economic activity and prosperity in the developing world, and ultimately demand for liquid fuels, according to BP. That means it won’t be able to offset already falling consumption in developed countries. Demand for liquid fuels is seen falling to less than 55 million barrels a day by 2050 in BP’s Rapid scenario, and to around 30 million a day in Net Zero. The drop is mostly in developed economies and in China. In India, other parts of Asia and Africa, demand remains broadly flat in the first scenario but slips below 2018 levels from the mid-2030s in the second. Other points in the energy outlook:  The Rapid scenario has carbon emissions from energy use falling by around 70% by 2050, while they drop by more than 95% in Net Zero. Business-as-usual sees them peaking in the mid-2020s.
  • 15. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15  Demand for all primary energy -- the raw materials from which energy is derived -- increases by about 10% in Rapid and Net Zero in the period, and by around 25% in the third scenario.  In Rapid, non-fossil fuels account for the majority of global energy from the early 2040s.  Growth in China’s energy demand slows sharply relative to past trends, reaching a peak in the early 2030s in all three scenarios.  Renewable energy -- excluding hydro -- increases more than 10-fold in both Rapid and Net Zero, with its share in primary energy rising from 5% in 2018 to more than 40% by 2050 in Rapid and almost 60% in Net Zero.  Natural gas consumption is seen broadly unchanged to 2050 in Rapid and around 35% higher in business-as-usual. Demand falls by about 40% by 2050 in Net Zero. Europe’s top oil and gas companies, which account for roughly 7% of global crude consumption, have committed themselves to greenhouse gas emission reduction targets which vary in scope and detail, making them hard for investors to compare.
  • 16. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16 Many climate ambitions among oil majors relate to results three decades into the future and depend on carbon offsets, whose availability is finite, and carbon capture and storage, a technology not currently deployed at commercial scale. What does this mean, say, for the carbon footprint of a car driver at a petrol station? If we take BP as an example, emissions from its own barrels, from wellhead to passenger car exhaust, amount to around 415 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent a year. BP says it will reduce these emissions - roughly the same as Britain’s annual emissions - to net zero by 2050. The net zero target does not cover crude and refined products that BP trades but which are initially brought out of the ground by other producers, a total which is much larger than the oil and gas BP produces itself. It says it aims to halve the carbon density of all energy that it trades by 2050. BP’s peer Royal Dutch Shell has the oil and gas sector’s broadest plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050, although it depends on pivoting “towards serving businesses and sectors that by 2050 are also net-zero emissions”.
  • 17. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17 This means Shell relies on its customers’ choices to reach its aim. French major Total pledged to cut to zero the greenhouse gas emissions from its operations, such as oil fields, globally by 2050. Such emissions from a group’s operations and from the electricity used for them are also known as Scope 1 and 2. But its broader 2050 net zero carbon plan covering emissions from fuels made from the oil and gas it extracts, such as gasoline, and sold to customers - also known as Scope 3 - only applies to Europe. As for emissions from its global fuel sales, it wants to reduce the carbon intensity of energy products used by Total customers by 2050 to less than 27.5 grammes CO2 equivalent per megajoule. An intensity-based target allows for absolute emissions to increase if volumes sold go up.
  • 18. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18 Equinor has also pledged to halve the intensity of the energy products it produces and sells by 2050, but its methodology is based on its equity oil and gas output, rather than every drop of fuel it sells. Eni, conversely, committed to cut its absolute emissions from all products it sells by 80% and said its oil output would shrink from 2025. Still, European oil and gas producers’ climate ambitions are way ahead of their U.S. peers ExxonMobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips.
  • 19. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 19 NewBase Energy News 15 September 2020 - Issue No. 1373 call on +971504822502, UAE The Editor:” Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services NewBase energy news is produced Twice a week and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE. For additional free subscriptions, please email us. About: Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010 www.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-38b995b Mobile: +971504822502 khdmohd@hawkenergy.net or khdmohd@hotmail.com Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with over 30 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat “with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service, as the UAE operations base. Khaled is the Founder of NewBase Energy, and an international consultant, advisor, ecopreneur and journalist with expertise in Gas & Oil pipeline Networks, waste management, waste- to-energy, renewable energy, environment protection and sustainable development. His geographical areas of focus include Middle East, Africa and Asia. Khaled has successfully accomplished a wide range of projects in the areas of Gas & Oil with extensive works on Gas Pipeline Network Facilities & gas compressor stations. Executed projects in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of gas/oil supply routes. Has drafted & finalized many contracts/agreements in products sale, transportation, operation & maintenance agreements. Along with many MOUs & JVs for organizations & governments authorities. Currently dealing for biomass energy, biogas, waste-to-energy, recycling and waste management. He has participated in numerous conferences and workshops as chairman, session chair, keynote speaker and panelist. Khaled is the Editor- in-Chief of NewBase Energy News and is a professional environmental writer with more than 1400 popular articles to his credit. He is proactively engaged in creating mass awareness on renewable energy, waste management and environmental sustainability in different parts of the world. Khaled has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences and for many Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. Khaled can be reached at any time, see contact details above. NewBase: For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE NewBase 2020 K. Al Awadi
  • 20. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 20
  • 21. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 21
  • 22. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 22 For Your Recruitments needs and Top Talents, please seek our approved agents below