1. Market Review and Outlook
QE Index and Volume
The Qatar Exchange (QE) Index gained 327.81 points, or 3.11%,
during the trading week, to close at 10,873.08 points. Market
capitalization increased by 2.26% to reach QR574.4 billion (bn) as
compared to QR561.7 at the end of the previous week. Of the 42 listed
companies, 31 companies ended the week higher while 9 fell and 2
remained unchanged. Islamic Holding (IHGS) was the best performing
stock with a gain of 13.33% on 1.0 million (mn) shares traded. On the
other hand, Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance Company (QGRI)
was the worst performing stock with a decline of 5.32% on 0.2mn
shares traded.
10,900
Regional Indices
Qatar (QE)*
Dubai
Abu Dhabi
Saudi Arabia
Kuwait
Oman
Bahrain
Close
10,873.08
3,504.66
4,417.79
8,677.87
7,668.82
7,156.17
1,263.41
WTD%
MTD%
YTD%
3.1
0.9
1.3
0.7
1.6
3.9
1.2
4.8
4.0
3.0
1.7
1.6
4.7
1.2
4.8
4.0
3.0
1.7
1.6
4.7
1.2
10,550
0
5-Jan
6-Jan
7-Jan
8-Jan
Volume
9-Jan
QE Index
Week ended
Jan 09, 2014
2,897.0
Week ended
Jan 02, 2014
1,150.6
574,369.8
561,701.3
2.3
61.9
30.5
103.1
31,167
16,912
84.3
42
42
0.0
Market Breadth
31:9
28:13
–
Market Indices
Close
Total Return
15,535.13
All Share Index
2,689.32
Banks/Financial Svcs.
2,553.28
Industrials
3,613.44
Transportation
1,951.17
Real Estate
2,009.56
Insurance
2,432.27
Telecoms
1,521.09
Consumer
6,078.15
Al Rayan Islamic Index
3,181.33
Market Indices
Weekly Index Performance
WTD%
3.1
2.5
3.3
1.3
3.6
0.4
3.3
4.9
0.8
2.4
Market Indicators
Value Traded (QR mn)
Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn)
Volume (mn)
Number of Transactions
Companies Traded
5.0%
Chg. %
151.8
MTD%
4.8
3.9
4.5
3.2
5.0
2.9
4.1
4.6
2.2
4.8
YTD%
4.8
3.9
4.5
3.2
5.0
2.9
4.1
4.6
2.2
4.8
3.9%
1.6%
1.3%
1.2%
0.9%
Bahrain
2.5%
Dubai
3.1%
0.7%
Weekly Exchange
Traded Value ($ mn)
816.46
1,562.94
1,282.84
8,638.86
544.92
189.23
13.78
Saudi Arabia
0.0%
Abu Dhabi
Foreign institutions remained bullish for the week with net buying
of QR519.7mn (including t-bills) vs. net buying of QR126.2mn in
the prior week. Qatari institutions remained bearish with net selling of
QR346.5mn vs. net selling of QR95.4mn the week before. Foreign
retail investors remained bearish for the week with net selling of
QR28.7mn vs. net selling of QR0.2mn in the prior week. Qatari retailer
investors remained bearish with net selling of QR144.6mn vs.
QR30.6mn the week before.
9,000,000
10,664.16
Kuwait
Trading value during the week increased by 151.77% to reach
QR2.9bn vs. QR1.2bn in the prior week. The Banks & Financial
Services sector led the trading value during the week, accounting for
36.01% of the total equity trading value. Trading volume increased by
103.05% to reach 61.9mn shares vs. 30.5mn shares in the prior
week. The number of transaction rose by 84.29% to reach 31,167
transactions versus 16,912 transactions in the prior week. The Banks
& Financial Services sector also led the trading volume, accounting for
29.73% of the total. The significant increase in trading value, trading
volume and number of transactions is due to the prior shortened
trading week.
10,725
Qatar
On the other hand, Qatar Electricity & Water Supply Company
(QEWS) shaved 5.1 points off the index during the week. The
stock has had a decent run in 2013 posting a total return of 44.8%.
United Development Company (UDCD) after its bull run in 2013
corrected by 0.86% week-over-week (WoW) and dragged the index
down by 2.8 points during the week.
10,798.69
10,784.49
Oman
Ooredoo (ORDS) was the biggest contributor to the QE Index.
The stock contributed 51.5 points to the index‟s weekly gain. ORDS
posted a total return of 37.9% in 2013. Furthermore, ORDS was the
biggest laggard in the prior week in the QE Index. Qatar Islamic Bank
(QIBK) was the second biggest contributor adding 41.7 points to the
index. QIBK has been a laggard in 2013 with a negative total return
of 3.2%.
18,000,000
10,873.08
10,834.84
Exchange Mkt.
Cap. ($ mn)
TTM P/E**
P/B**
Dividend Yield
157,779.4
73,002.23
125,582.6
474,298.2#
109,877.3
25,499.2
50,536.5
13.9
20.7
12.3
17.7
17.0
11.3
8.2
1.9
1.4
1.5
2.2
1.2
1.7
0.9
4.2
2.5
4.1
3.4
3.7
3.6
3.8
#
Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any) ( Data as of Jan. 08, 2014)
Page 1 of 5
2. News
Economic News
QNB Group: Qatar’s real GDP growth may pick up to 6.8%
this year – QNB Group expects Qatar‟s real GDP growth to
pick up to 6.8% in 2014 as the implementation of large
infrastructure projects accelerates and the fast-growing
population boosts domestic demand. QNB said that the
acceleration will be due to large infrastructure projects such as
the Lusail real estate development, the new Doha Port, the new
Hamad International Airport and the Doha Metro Rail project.
The non-hydrocarbon sector will continue to be the key growth
driver, which is expected to grow from 42% of nominal GDP in
2012 to more than 50% by 2015. The Ministry of Development
Planning & Statistics stated that Qatar‟s economic growth
accelerated at a buoyant pace of 6.2% in 3Q2013 as compared
to 3Q2012. QNB Group said that this growth was spurred by
double-digit growth in trade, restaurants & hotels; construction;
transport & communication; financial, real estate & business
services; as well as domestic services. The hydrocarbon sector
expanded to a better-than-expected 1.8% YoY in 3Q2013 due
to LNG facilities coming back to full operational capacity after
maintenance over last year. Meanwhile, the non-hydrocarbon
sector grew 9.5% YoY 3Q2013, driven by a strong growth in
services. (Gulf-Times.com)
Market & Corporate News
QFC amends rules on insolvency, SFOs & SCs; to make
firms more flexible – The Qatar Financial Centre (QFC) has
issued amendments related to regulations on insolvency, single
family offices (SFO) and special companies (SC) in an attempt
to improve the QFC's legal architecture. These amendments
aim to simplify procedures and give QFC firms more flexibility in
their operations, improve legislative certainty and align QFC
regulations with best practices elsewhere. The amended
regulations enable the creation of a register of insolvency
practitioners and sets out how insolvency practitioners can
qualify to appear on the register. The rules also allow a
company to voluntarily apply to be struck off the register of
companies under certain conditions. (Qatar Tribune)
DHBK weighs debt sale as default swaps decline – Doha
Bank‟s (DHBK) CEO Raghavan Seetharaman said the bank is
planning to take on debt in the second half as investor
perceptions of the country‟s credit risk improve. He added that
options include selling senior or subordinated debt to
strengthen the balance sheet by reducing the mismatch
between short-term assets and long-term liabilities. According
to data provider CMA, five-year credit default swaps insuring
Qatari debt declined nine basis points since December 1 to 58
basis points January 07. He said credit default swap rates are
coming down significantly from December, so debt procurement
is planned. (Bloomberg)
DOHI receives approval from QCB, MEC to increase its
capital – Doha Insurance Company‟s (DOHI) Chairman Sheikh
Nawaf Bin Nasser Bin Khaled Al Thani announced that the
company has received the written approval from both QCB and
MEC to increase its capital. DOHI can now raise its capital from
QR257.4mn to QR500.0mn by issuing 24,260,000 new shares
to its shareholders through a rights issue offered at QR18 per
share, QR10 being par value and a premium of QR8. The
company is currently in the process of arranging to convene the
next EGM on February 17, 2014 to seek shareholders‟ approval
for the capital increase. Al Thani said this step comes as part of
DOHI‟s vision to increase financial solvency and further
improve its credit rating, which would enable the company to
compete for mega projects both locally and internationally. (QE)
MPHC’s shareholders to get 4 month profit share – HE the
Minister of Finance, Ali Shareef Al Emadi said that Mesaieed
Petrochemical Holding Company‟s (MPHC) shareholders will
soon be eligible for a profit share for the first four months since
the firm‟s establishment in September 2013. The profits will be
distributed after MPHC‟s results are announced in March or
April. Ali Shareef Al Emadi said that the company earned a net
profit of around QR1.6bn in 2012. MPHC, a wholly-owned
subsidiary of Qatar Petroleum and an umbrella entity for QChem I, Q-Chem II and Qatar Vinyl Company, is offering
323.19mn ordinary shares (26% stake) at QR10.2 a piece
(including QR0.2 listing fees). (Gulf-Times,com)
MPHC clarifies on beneficiary shares under Emiri grant –
Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company (MPHC) gave a
clarification to address certain ambiguities regarding shares
provided to beneficiaries under the Emiri grant for the
underprivileged. MPHC stated that 100% of the shares as part
of the Emiri grant of 750 shares shall be blocked. The
statement said shares of minors who are not beneficiaries of
the Emiri grant to the less fortunate, whose subscriptions are
made on their behalf by their parents or legal guardians will be
as follows: 50% of the shares subscribed for on behalf of such
minors in the IPO shall be blocked until the minor is of legal
age. Once the minor is of legal age, he/she is entitled to deal
with those blocked shares. As for the remaining 50% of the
shares held by a minor, the minor's guardian is entitled to deal
with these shares on the first day of MPHC's listing. The
statement noted that if a minor is still under 18 years on the
date on which he/she receives shares under MPHC's Incentive
Shares program, such shares shall be blocked until the minor
attains the age of 18. (Qatar Tribune)
Qatar’s mega water plant to be ready by June 2015 –
Qatar‟s mega water distribution system will be ready by the
middle of 2015. Eversheds, the global law firm that advised
Qatar General Electricity & Water Corporation (Kahramaa) on
the 25-year supply deal with Qatar Electricity & Water Company
(QEWS), announced that the 36mn imperial gallons per day
plant will deliver the first pail of water in June 2015. The law
firm also assisted Kahramaa in the financial close of its $500mn
Independent Water Plant (IWP). (Peninsula Qatar)
Nakilat Damen Shipyards lays keel for 2 tugboats – Nakilat
Damen Shipyards Qatar (NDSQ), a JV between Nakilat and
Dutch shipbuilder Damen, has laid the keels for two 16 meterlong stan tugboats. This is part of a seven-vessel order for
marine services provider Nakilat SvitzerWijsmuller (NSW),
which is owned by Nakilat and Svitzer Middle East. The two
twin-screw stan tugs have a bollard pull of 15 tons and will be
used for mooring vessels visiting the Port of Ras Laffan. NDSQ
is also currently building five other vessels for the NSW order:
two 28m-long azimuth stern drive (ASD) tugs, two 31m-long
ASD tugs and one 22m-long glass reinforced plastic pilot boat.
These boats will be delivered to NSW for use at Ras Laffan
port. (Gulf-Times.com)
DHBK’s BoD will meet on January 20 – Doha Bank‟s (DHBK)
board of directors will be holding a meeting on January 20,
2014 to discuss its financial results ending on December 31,
2013 and discuss the proposal of profit distribution for
FY2013.(QE)
QIBK’s BoD will meet on January 19 – Qatar Islamic Bank‟s
(QIBK) board of directors will be holding a meeting on January
19, 2014 to discuss its financial results ending on December
31, 2013. (QE)
Page 2 of 5
3. Qatar Exchange
Top 5 Gainers
Top 5 Decliners
0.0%
16.0%
13.3%
-0.9%
-1.0%
-1.0%
-1.5%
12.0%
9.3%
9.2%
7.6%
8.0%
7.4%
-3.0%
-3.0%
4.0%
-4.5%
0.0%
-6.0%
-5.3%
Islamic
Qatar
Holding Group International
Islamic Bank
Doha
Insurance
Milaha
Dlala Holding
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
Qatar General Qatar German Mannai Corp.
Qatar
United
Insurance &
Co. for
Electricity and Development
Reinsurance
Medical
Water
Devices
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million)
Most Active Shares by Volume (Million)
400.0
16.0
346.0
291.1
300.0
12.0
253.7
11.1
223.5
200.0
8.0
152.0
5.5
4.5
100.0
0.0
Qatari
Investors
Group
QNB Group
Industries
Qatar
Commercial
Bank of Qatar
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
Barwa Real
Estate
Qatari
Investors
Group
Qatar Gas
Transport
(Nakilat)
491
Non-Qatari
13.82%
696
80%
1,187
12.83%
34.21%
22.25%
40%
20%
Vodafone
Qatar
Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million)
10.21%
28.15%
Masraf Al
Rayan
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded
60%
3.6
0.0
Barwa Real
Estate
100%
4.0
4.0
36.77%
(491)
41.76%
Qatari
2,201
1,710
0%
Buy
Sell
Qatari Individuals
Qatari Institutions
Non-Qatari Individuals
Non-Qatari Institutions
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
(1,000)
(500)
-
Net Investment
500
1,000
Total Sold
1,500
2,000
2,500
Total Bought
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
Page 3 of 5
4. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QE INDEX
Source: Bloomberg
The QE Index continued its upward momentum tagging a series of new 52-week highs last week and witnessed gains on every single day, registering
impressive gains of around 328 points. The bulls were in full charge as the index breached the 10,600.0, 10,700.0 and 10,800.0 psychological levels
ensuring its strong upmove. The index also managed to penetrate above the ascending trendline resistance, which had restricted its bullish move in the
past indicating a positive sign. We believe the index has been in strong uptrend mode since forming a base near the 10,320.0 level and may continue its
bullish run, targeting the 10,900.0-11,000.0 levels. If the index sustains above this levels, a continued rise and a possibility of a further rally may not be ruled
out. The recent uptrend has been sharp, which is keeping the RSI in perpetual overbought state; however, it does not seem to be affecting the index‟s
current performance. Meanwhile, the MACD is diverging away from the signal line and is moving up in a bullish manner showing no immediate trend
reversal signs, indicating that this rally may not fizzle out soon. On the flip side, traders may need to keep a close watch for support near the ascending
trendline, as any dip below this level may result in the index drifting toward the 10,700.0 level.
DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates
between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if
the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the
convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the
MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend.
Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The „body‟ of the chart is portion between
the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the „shadow‟. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day
candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis.
Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and
based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal.
Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each
other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The
Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal.
Page 4 of 5
5. Company Name
Price % Change 5(Jan 9)
Day
% Change
YTD
Market Cap.
QR Million
TTM P/E
P/B
Div. Yield
Qatar National Bank
174.50
0.87
1.45
122,103
13.2
2.4
3.4
Qatar Islamic Bank
74.90
7.31
8.55
17,698
16.4
1.5
5.0
Commercial Bank of Qatar
73.70
3.95
4.10
18,237
10.4
1.3
8.1
Doha Bank
63.00
7.14
8.25
16,277
11.0
1.8
6.6
Al Ahli Bank
57.40
4.36
4.36
7,294
14.1
2.1
5.2
Qatar International Islamic Bank
68.00
9.32
10.21
10,293
14.4
2.1
5.1
Masraf Al Rayan
33.40
2.61
6.71
25,050
15.0
2.5
3.0
Al Khaliji Bank
20.80
4.10
4.05
7,488
14.1
1.4
4.8
National Leasing
30.90
2.66
2.49
1,529
13.1
1.2
6.5
Dlala Holding
23.70
7.39
7.24
526
N/M
2.3
N/A
Qatar & Oman Investment
13.01
1.72
3.91
410
27.3
1.3
3.8
Islamic Holding Group
51.00
13.33
10.87
204
27.4
3.6
2.2
227,109
Banking and Financial Services
Zad Holding
69.30
0.43
(0.29)
907
9.2
0.7
5.8
Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices
13.70
(3.04)
(1.08)
158
N/M
0.8
N/A
Salam International Investment
13.03
(0.53)
0.15
1,490
11.5
0.9
5.4
Medicare Group
54.70
2.05
4.19
1,539
25.0
2.0
3.3
Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution
41.00
2.12
2.24
234
31.3
1.7
4.9
289.00
0.00
1.72
18,776
15.7
3.1
3.5
53.20
3.30
2.90
958
15.9
3.9
7.5
142.20
6.28
6.68
2,844
19.5
2.3
5.6
Qatar Fuel
Qatar Meat and Livestock
Al Meera Consumer Goods
26,905
Consumer Goods and Services
51.80
1.97
2.37
2,051
9.7
1.5
5.8
Qatar National Cement
119.00
0.00
0.00
5,843
13.7
2.4
5.0
Industries Qatar
173.90
0.93
2.96
105,210
13.0
3.3
4.4
50.50
5.10
15.56
6,279
26.9
3.0
1.5
4.1
Qatar Industrial Manufacturing
Qatari Investors Group
177.80
(0.95)
(2.25)
17,780
11.8
3.1
Mannai Corp.
89.00
(1.00)
(1.00)
4,060
8.8
1.7
5.3
Aamal
15.00
0.33
0.00
9,000
14.3
1.4
N/A
Gulf International Services
67.70
5.29
10.98
10,065
16.6
3.5
2.2
Qatar Electricity and Water
160,288
Industrials
Qatar Insurance
71.40
5.78
7.37
9,170
11.2
1.9
2.8
Doha Insurance
27.95
9.18
11.80
719
12.8
1.4
3.3
Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance
44.50
(5.32)
(7.10)
2,565
3.0
0.8
2.0
Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance
37.40
(0.27)
2.47
639
13.3
1.1
2.2
Qatar Islamic Insurance
58.30
2.10
0.69
875
13.7
3.2
6.0
13,968
Insurance
United Development
22.95
(0.86)
1.50
7,739
9.5
0.7
4.4
Barwa Real Estate
30.95
1.14
3.86
12,043
17.6
0.9
4.8
Ezdan Real Estate
17.25
1.47
1.47
45,756
N/M
1.6
0.8
Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development
11.44
0.79
2.33
1,144
17.3
1.1
5.2
66,682
Real Estate
144.00
5.80
4.96
46,126
17.5
1.9
3.5
11.00
(0.18)
2.71
9,299
N/M
1.5
N/A
Qatar Navigation (Milaha)
91.00
7.57
9.64
10,422
10.7
0.9
4.1
Gulf Warehousing
41.00
(0.49)
(1.20)
1,950
19.6
2.5
N/A
Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat)
Transportation
20.75
1.22
2.47
11,620
15.2
3.3
4.8
Qatar Telecom
Vodafone Qatar
55,425
Telecoms
23,992
Qatar Exchange
574,370
Source: Bloomberg
Contacts
Saugata Sarkar
Ahmed M. Shehada
Keith Whitney
Sahbi Kasraoui
Head of Research
Head of Trading
Head of Sales
Manager - HNWI
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534
Tel: (+974) 4476 6535
Tel: (+974) 4476 6533
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa
ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa
keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa
sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa
QNB Financial Services SPC
Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
PO Box 24025, Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar
Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an
offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential
investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be
reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts,
QNBFS does not make any representations warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right
to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views
and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 5 of 5