NewBase 09 February 2024 Energy News issue - 1697 by Khaled Al Awadi_compressed (1).pdf

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NewBase Energy News 09 February 2024 No. 1697 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Dubai Supreme Council of Energy adopts strategic initiatives to
support infrastructure
(WAM)
H.H. Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum, Chairman of the Dubai Supreme Council of Energy
(DSCE), chaired the 80th meeting of the Council, which was held at the Mandarin Oriental Jumeira
hotel in Dubai, in the presence of Saeed Mohammed Al Tayer, Vice Chairman of the DSCE.
The meeting was also attended by Ahmed Buti Al Muhairbi, Secretary-General of the Dubai
Supreme Council of Energy, and board members Dawood Al Hajri, Director General of Dubai
Municipality; Abdulla bin Kalban, Managing Director of Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA); Saif
Humaid Al Falasi, CEO of Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC); Juan-Pablo Freile, General
Manager of Dubai Petroleum; and Hussain Al Banna, CEO of the Strategy & Corporate Governance
Sector at the Roads & Transport Authority (RTA).
ww.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-80201019/

The Council discussed new measures to support the development of the retail fuel distribution sector
to be compatible with the highest international standards in this field and to keep pace with the
remarkable increase in demand in the past three years.
The Council has adopted initiatives that will have a positive impact on ensuring smooth distribution
operations at fuel stations, in addition to providing mobile fuel distribution vehicles to meet
consumers’ needs.
In support of the Dubai Green Mobility Initiative 2030, the Dubai Roads and Transport Authority
(RTA) introduced a programme to issue accreditation certificates to entities and companies that
manage green vehicle fleets, including electric and hybrid cars. This supports Dubai’s objective to
increase the number of environmentally friendly cars in the local markets.
“In line with the vision and directives of His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum,
Vice President, Prime Minister and Ruler of Dubai, to increase the share of clean and renewable
energy sources and in light of the global transition towards environmentally friendly renewable and
clean energy, we reviewed a number of strategies, plans, and decisions during the meeting.
The Council is keen to ensure that the transition towards the sensible use of all types of energy is
based on integrated systems and strategies with programmes that support the sustainable
development of Dubai.
This will be achieved with the participation of government and private entities to ensure effective
implementation to reach the goals outlined in the roadmap to a green economy,” said Saeed
Mohammed Al Tayer, Vice Chairman of the DSCE.
“We aim to enhance the quality of life in Dubai and achieve a clean environment free of carbon
emissions. This will reflect positively on realising sustainable development in its social, economic,
and environmental aspects, as well as ensure a brighter future for generations to come,” added Al
Tayer.
“The Council reviewed the regulatory framework to support the remarkable growth in demand for
vehicle fuel by increasing the number of fuelling stations in various areas of Dubai. This is achieved
by analysing the population increase and the number of vehicles to improve the flow of traffic at
retail stations.
The Council has approved the introduction of initiatives that will balance supply and demand for
vehicle fuel in the next five years,” said Ahmed Buti Al Muhairbi, Secretary-General of the DSCE.
“This programme, which has been developed by the RTA, will support Dubai’s goals of increasing
low-carbon emission vehicles. These certificates are set to be offered in the coming months,” added
Al Muhairbi.

UAE invests to meet 2027 crude oil production capacity goal
U.S. EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook data browser for production data, Country Analysis Brief: UAE & (ADNOC)
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has invested heavily in increasing hydrocarbon production
capacity and developing midstream and downstream infrastructure to accommodate future growth
in hydrocarbon production.
However, over the past 10 years, UAE actual production has averaged just less than 3 million
barrels per day (b/d) because of production cut agreements between OPEC and non-OPEC
participating countries (collectively known as OPEC+), according to our Country Analysis Brief:
United Arab Emirates.
Note: Annual data for 2023 represent January through September, the most recent months available.
The UAE national oil company, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), has set a target to
increase crude oil production capacity to 5 million b/d by 2027, moving up its earlier 2030 target by
three years, according to the Middle East Economic Survey.
To achieve its 2027 goal, ADNOC has increased upstream exploration and development. ADNOC
increased planned spending on capital expenditures to $150 billion from 2023 to 2027 and unveiled
expansion plans for increasing production.
The UAE is also focused on increasing production capacity in new locations. In 2018 and 2019, the
Abu Dhabi, Sharjah, and Ras Al Khaima emirates held several licensing rounds for exploration
blocks that were offered for the first time to both domestic and international oil companies.
ADNOC has reported its official production capacity at 4.5 million b/d, according to Energy
Intelligence, which is about 0.5 million b/d higher than our 2023 estimate of 4.0 million b/d. However,
considerable uncertainty surrounds ADNOC’s ability to sustain production at full capacity.
Estimates from other sources such as Energy Intelligence and Rystad Energy are higher, placing
the UAE’s production capacity closer to the range of 4.3 million b/d to 4.4 million b/d. Capacity

expansion will allow for a significant increase in crude oil production. Should this production increase
materialize, we expect that most of that growth will be exported.
The UAE was the seventh-largest total liquid fuels producer in the world in 2022 and the third largest
among OPEC countries. The UAE held an estimated 111 billion barrels of proved crude oil reserves
at the beginning of 2023, up from 107 billion barrels last year.
The UAE joined OPEC in 1967 and is one of only two members, alongside Saudi Arabia, with
notable spare crude oil production capacity to address potential supply shortfalls. Surplus
production capacity refers to capacity that is available but is unused because of policy decisions
either by individual members or the organization.
On June 4, 2023, OPEC+ announced that the group plans to extend its crude oil production
targets for participating member countries to the end of 2024. In addition, crude oil production
targets for the participating OPEC+ countries would also be adjusted starting in January 2024.
Unlike other member countries whose production quotas were reduced in June 2023, the UAE’s
current target increased by 200,000 b/d. However, in the most recent OPEC+ meeting, on
November 30, 2023, the UAE also agreed to make an additional voluntary production cut to its
stated production targets for the first quarter of 2024 to assist OPEC+’s efforts to reduce global
crude oil supply.
This change would, in effect, raise the UAE’s stated crude oil output target from 3.02 million b/d in
2023 to 3.06 million b/d between January 2024 and the end of March 2024. The UAE target would
then increase to 3.22 million b/d for the rest of 2024, if the UAE chooses to comply with all
agreements made in 2023 and if no further OPEC+ cuts are adopted in 2024.

German Utility VNG Inks deal With Algeria for ipeline Gas
(Bloomberg)
German utility VNG AG signed a deal for the country’s first delivery of pipeline gas from Algerian
state energy giant Sonatrach, as Berlin looks to strengthen its energy ties with the North African
country.
“The contract lays the foundation for a
trusting supply relationship, opens up new
perspectives and strengthens the German-
Algerian energy partnership,” VNG Chief
Executive Officer Ulf Heitmüller said in a
statement during a German business
delegation visit to Algeria.
Europe’s largest economy has been
struggling to find alternative supplies after
former top-provider Russia curbed natural
gas supplies in the wake of the war in
Ukraine. The region has mainly filled the gap
with liquefied natural gas.
The agreement, which took effect in
January, allows gas to be shipped via
pipeline to Italy and then on to Germany, a
spokesperson for Sonatrach said. Other
details weren’t immediately available, including the length of the deal and volumes to be delivered.
Heitmüller earlier told Bloomberg that the contract is “only a small one, and we are looking at
expanding it.” The Leipzig-based utility, majority-owned by EnBW Baden-Wuerttemberg AG, is also
looking to establish a partnership with Sonatrach to import hydrogen into Germany.
Long-term gas delivery contracts are still scarce in Germany, with importers mainly relying on the
volatile spot market. The US — a top global supplier of LNG — has imposed a moratorium on new
export licenses while it studies the climate and economic impacts, creating uncertainty for the
market.
The VNG-Sonatrach deal also highlights the possibility of Europe strengthening its relationship with
Algeria. The North African country accounts for about 14% of the European Union’s total imports of
both pipeline gas and LNG, according to the bloc’s latest market data.
“We now want to expand this and encourage Algeria to produce more green hydrogen in the future,
invest more in solar and wind energy and thus create its own added value,” Economy Minister
Robert Habeck, who is leading the business delegation, said in a statement.
Germany can provide technical expertise and serve as a potential buyer for green hydrogen, made
from renewables, he said. Uniper SE CEO Michael Lewis is also among the participants.
Habeck and Algerian Energy Minister Mohamed Arkab on Thursday signed a declaration of intent
to set up a hydrogen task force, including a pilot plant. Feasibility studies for the project are under
way.

Japan Nuclear reactor restarts reduced LNG imports for
electricity generation …. source: Japan Ministry of Finance, Trade Statistics
After the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi accident, Japan suspended operations at all of its remaining 48
nuclear power reactors by 2013 and relied almost exclusively on imported natural gas to replace
the lost electricity generation. In 2015, Japan allowed its first nuclear power reactor to resume
operations.
Note: Others represents Algeria, Angola, Belgium, Brazil, Brunei, China, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, France, Indonesia,
Mozambique, the Netherlands, Nigeria, Norway, Oman, Peru, Qatar, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, Thailand,
Trinidad and Tobago, Türkiye, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and Yemen.
As of December 2022, 11 gigawatts (GW) of Japan’s nuclear capacity have returned to service,
which reduced liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports for electricity generation.
Since 2015, increasing nuclear
generation has been replacing
generation from fossil fuel
sources in Japan, mainly natural
gas. In 2022, Japan’s LNG
imports declined by 15%, or 1.7
billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d),
compared with 2015, and we
expect LNG imports into Japan
to continue declining.
In 2023, Japan restarted
Takahama Units 1 and 2, adding
about 1.6 GW. Japan also

passed the GX Decarbonization Power Supply Bill last year to establish a decarbonized electricity
system, designating nuclear power as the main component of the country’s baseload electricity.
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics; Nuclear
Regulation Authority Japan
Nuclear restarts have been slow since 2015. Japan has restarted 12 units, bringing currently
operating nuclear capacity to 11 GW. Japan has 10 more units under review and 5 more that have
passed review but have yet to restart.
Japan focused on restarting pressurized boiling water reactors as opposed to boiling water
reactors out of public safety concerns. The six-unit Fukushima Daiichi plant, a boiling water reactor
facility, is being decommissioned along with its sister plant, Fukushima Daini.

Energy resources are scarce in Japan, and it imports most of the fossil fuel it uses for electricity
generation. In 2022, fossil fuels accounted for 71% of generation, with natural gas accounting for
35% of that share. Japan’s LNG imports have declined as more nuclear reactors have restarted.
After Japan restarted five nuclear reactors in 2018, Japan’s LNG imports declined by 7% (0.7 Bcf/d)
in 2019 and by another 7% (0.7 Bcf/d) between 2019 and 2022.
Data source: Institute of Energy Economics Japan, International Atomic Energy Agency
Note: PWR=pressurized boiling water reactor, BWR=boiling water reactor, NRA=Nuclear
Regulatory Authority Japan
Japan has a large portfolio of long-term LNG contracts, which supply up to 90% of Japan’s LNG
imports each year. The remaining share of imports is supplied under short-term and spot contracts
from as many as 20 countries (including re-exporters).
Australia has been Japan’s largest LNG supplier for 11 years; its share of Japan’s total LNG imports
more than doubled from 18% in 2012 to 42% in 2023. Qatar—which was ranked second in 2012—
is now the seventh-largest LNG supplier to Japan.
Qatar provided 4% of Japan’s LNG imports last year, down from 18% in 2012, in part because some
of Japan’s long-term contracts with Qatar expired. In 2023, Malaysia was Japan’s second-largest
LNG supplier, accounting for 16% (1.4 Bcf/d) of LNG imports.
However, in 2012, before Australia took its long-standing top spot, Malaysia supplied 19% of
Japan’s LNG imports and was the largest supplier. Other significant LNG suppliers in 2023 included
Russia at 9% (0.8 Bcf/d), the United States at 8% (0.7 Bcf/d), and Papua New Guinea at 6% (0.5
Bcf/d).

NewBase February 09 -2024 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Oil prices headed for weekly gains as hope for peace lost in ME
Reuters + NewBase
Oil prices rose in early trade on Friday, on track for weekly gains, with tensions persisting in the
Middle East after Israel rejected a ceasefire offer from Hamas.
Brent futures climbed 8 cents, or 0.1%, to $81.71 a barrel by 0119 GMT, while U.S. West Texas
Intermediate crude futures rose 17 cents, or 0.2%, to $76.39 a barrel.
Oil prices rose about 3% in the previous session as Israeli forces bombed the southern border city
of Rafah on Thursday after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected a proposal to end the war
in the Palestinian enclave.
The tensions have kept oil prices elevated, with Brent and WTI both set to gain 5.7% for the week.
U.S. officials made their most pointed criticism so far of Israel's civilian casualties in Gaza as it
turned the focus of its offensive to Rafah.
Oil price special
coverage
 Brent, WTI both on track for weekly gains of 5.7%
 Russia's refinery damage casts doubt on OPEC+ supply cuts

A Hamas delegation arrived in Cairo on Thursday for ceasefire talks with mediators Egypt and
Qatar. While the conflict has propped up prices, there has been no impact on oil production.
However, with the Ukraine conflict, a combination of drone attacks on Russian refineries and
technical outages have led the country to export more crude than it planned in February, which
could undermine its pledge to curb sales under an OPEC+ pact.
Under the deal with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, called
OPEC+, Russia committed to capping crude output at 9.5 million barrels per day (bpd). It is also
voluntarily cutting crude exports by 300,000 bpd and fuel exports by 200,000 bpd from the average
May-June level.
On Thursday Oil prices gained more than 3% on concerns of a broadening conflict in the Middle
East after Israel rejected a ceasefire offer from Hamas. Brent futures closed up $2.42, or 3%, to
$81.36 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed $2.36, or 3.2%, to $76.22.
The Brent benchmark breached $80 a barrel and WTI rose above $75 a barrel for the first time in
February. Israeli forces bombed the southern border city of Rafah on Thursday after Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu rejected a proposal to end the war in the Palestinian enclave.
"The market is holding its breath on what the next potential fallout could be," said John Kilduff,
partner with Again Capital LLC. Attacks on shipping by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels continued to
disrupt global oil trading, he added.
In the U.S., a stronger than expected drawdown in gasoline and middle-distillate stocks also buoyed
the oil market. The draw in fuel stocks, combined with a rise in crude stocks, was a sign of U.S.
refinery maintenance, Varga said.
"Ongoing U.S. refinery maintenance, together with Europe being short on diesel, can help maintain
the positive sentiment for now," he added.
In Russia, damage to refineries from Ukraine's drone attacks and technical outages led to more
crude exports than planned in February, potentially undermining the country's pledge to cut supplies
under an OPEC+ pact, according to analysts.
Elsewhere, Norway's Johan Sverdrup oilfield - the largest in the North Sea - will maintain steady
production at a higher rate of 755,000 barrels per day (bpd) for the rest of this year, Aker BP said.
Its original planned capacity was 660,000 bpd.
Demand growth remains healthy in large oil-consuming nations, including India and the U.S., said
Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS.
U.S. jobless claims fell slightly more than expected last week, the Labor Department said on
Thursday, pointing to underlying job market strength.

NewBase Specual Coverage
The Energy world –February 09 -2024
CLEAN ENERGY
India’s Role in the Global Oil Markets to Groww
IEA
India’s role in global oil markets is expected to expand substantially over the remainder of the
decade, fuelled by strong growth in its economy, population and demographics. In this Report, we
look at how these wideranging changes will impact global oil markets.
Our analysis is focused on the future evolution of the country’s oil sector and its increasingly
dominant role in international trade, as well as demand, supply and refining developments and the
government’s key objectives to reduce oil imports, transition to cleaner fuels and improve energy
security.
The global energy crisis has cast energy security as a key political priority for countries across the
world – and it is a critical imperative for India given it is highly dependent on oil imports to meet its
supply needs. The crisis has also boosted the momentum behind clean energy transitions.
For the first time, the IEA sees a peak in global oil demand in all its scenarios this decade. The pace
of demand growth diverges markedly across sectors, with road transport fuels set to enter decline
first in response to the rapid uptake of electric vehicles, efficiency improvements and the continued
rise of biofuels.

The geographic dispersion is perhaps even more significant as countries embark on their transition
paths from very different starting points. India will become the largest source of global oil demand
growth between now and 2030, while growth in developed economies and China initially slows and
then subsequently goes into reverse in our outlook.
Urbanisation, industrialisation, the emergence of a wealthier middle-class keen for mobility and
tourism, plus efforts to achieve greater access to clean cooking, will underpin the expansion in oil
demand. Consequently, India is on track to post an increase of almost 1.2 mb/d, accounting for more
than one-third of the projected 3.2 mb/d global gains, to reach 6.6 mb/d by 2030.
The massive industrial expansion means that diesel/gasoil is the single largest source of oil demand
growth, accounting for almost half of the rise in the nation’s demand and more than one-sixth of
total global oil demand growth through to 2030. Jet-kerosene demand is poised to grow strongly, at
around 5.9% per year on average, but from a low base compared to other countries.
Gasoline will grow by 0.7% on average, as the electrification of India’s vehicle fleet avoids a more
substantial rise. LPG rounds out the growth picture, as petrochemical industry investments in
production facilities boost feedstock demand.

The Indian government’s world-leading progress in bringing clean cooking programmes to its rural
populations have led to LPG imports surging nearly three-fold in the past decade and further
initiatives will see demand growth continue through 2030.
Indian oil companies are investing heavily in the refining sector to meet the rise in domestic oil
demand. Over the next seven years, 1 mb/d of new refinery distillation capacity will be added –
more than any other country in the world outside of China. Several other large projects are currently
under consideration that may lift capacity beyond the 6.8 mb/d capacity that we expect so far.
India is set to maintain its position as a key exporter of transportation fuels to markets in Asia and
the Atlantic Basin. Continued investment in refining capacity and complexity will boost light and
middle distillate production, even as the industry pivots further towards heavier and more sour
crudes.
India’s role as a global swing supplier has risen since 2022 as the loss of Russian product exports
to European markets has increased the pull of Asian diesel and jet fuel westward. In 2023, India
was the fourth-largest exporter of middle distillates globally and the sixth largest refinery product
exporter at 1.2 mb/d.
New refining capacity is forecast to boost product supplies to global markets to 1.4 mb/d through
mid-decade before edging lower to 1.2 mb/d by 2030 given the steady rise in domestic demand.
As a relatively small oil producer, and with limited potential for near-term growth, India’s domestic
production accounted for just 13% of the country’s supply needs. In 2023, domestic oil production
averaged around 700 kb/d.
Despite renewed efforts by the government to attract foreign upstream investment, domestic crude
oil production is expected to see continued declines over the medium term. A dearth of new
discoveries in recent years will contribute to Indian oil supply falling to 540 kb/d by 2030.

Notably, India’s efforts to accelerate its energy transition is set to deliver significant oil savings in
the forecast period. Increased uptake in electric vehicles is set to play a key role in decarbonising
the transport sector.
We estimate that, combined, new EVs and energy efficiency improvements will avoid 480 kb/d of
extra oil demand in the 2023-2030 period. That means without these gains India’s oil demand would
reach a much higher 1.68 mb/d by 2030 compared with the current forecast.
Biofuels are also expected to play a key role in India’s decarbonisation of the transport sector. The
South Asian nation is already the world’s third-largest producer and consumer of ethanol, as
domestic production has tripled over the last five years.
Supported by the country’s abundant feedstocks, political support and effective policy
implementation, its ethanol blending rate of around 12% is amongst the world’s highest. India has
advanced by five years its deadline for doubling nationwide ethanol blending in gasoline to 20% in
Q4 2026. Achieving 20% ethanol blending in such a short time frame presents several challenges,
not least rapidly expanding feedstock supplies.
The country’s spectacular economic growth story, however, brings myriad challenges for its security
of energy supplies. India was already the world’s second-largest crude oil net importer in 2023,
having boosted imports by 36% over the past decade to 4.6 mb/d to meet rising refinery intake.
Increased refining processing will lift crude oil imports further, to 5.8 mb/d by 2030, with major
implications for India’s security of supply.
The energy crisis and recent surge in long-haul crude sources, notably from Russia, has also added
further impetus to sustaining the country’s oil resilience in case of market disruptions. Based on IEA
methodology, current stock holding levels equate to 66 days of net-import cover, with SPR stocks
of 26 mb equal to seven days. India needs to enhance its capacity to respond to possible oil supply
disruptions by implementing and strengthening its SPR programmes and improving oil industry
readiness.

IEA estimates that Indian oil stocks amounted to 243 mb

NewBase Energy News 09-February - Issue No. 1697 call on +971504822502, UAE
The Editor:” Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services
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About: Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
www.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-38b995b
Mobile: +971504822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net or khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with over 30 years of experience in the Oil & Gas
sector. Has Mechanical Engineering BSc. & MSc. Degrees from leading U.S.
Universities. Currently working as self leading external Energy consultant for the
GCC area via many leading Energy Services companies. Khaled is the Founder of
the NewBase Energy news articles issues, Khaled is an international consultant,
advisor, ecopreneur and journalist with expertise in Gas & Oil pipeline Networks,
waste management, waste-to-energy, renewable energy, environment protection
and sustainable development. His geographical areas of focus include Middle East,
Africa and Asia. Khaled has successfully accomplished a wide range of projects in
the areas of Gas & Oil with extensive works on Gas Pipeline Network Facilities & gas
compressor stations. Executed projects in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering &
regulating stations and in the engineering of gas/oil supply routes.
Has drafted & finalized many contracts/agreements in products sale, transportation, operation &
maintenance agreements. Along with many MOUs & JVs for organizations & governments authorities.
Currently dealing for biomass energy, biogas, waste-to-energy, recycling and waste management. He has
participated in numerous conferences and workshops as chairman, session chair, keynote speaker and
panelist.
Khaled is the Editor-in-Chief of NewBase Energy News and is a professional environmental writer with over
1400 popular articles to his credit. He is proactively engaged in creating mass awareness on renewable
energy, waste management, plant Automation IA and environmental sustainability in different parts of the
world. Khaled has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences and for many Energy program

broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. Khaled can be reached at any time, see
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