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NewBase 14 February 2016 - Issue No. 786 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
India’s tie up with Adnoc on oil storage to give energy security
Abu Dhabi: India’s partnership with Abu Dhabi National Oil Company in oil storage is likely to
benefit India and protect its economy from crude price shocks and supply disruptions, experts said
as energy ties between India and the UAE grow.
“The storage is something that is important for energy security specially when there are threats to
oil supplies in the region. India is close to the UAE and kind of an ideal place to develop strategic
storage,” said Robin Mills, Chief Executive Officer of Dubai based consultancy firm Qamar
Energy.
Indian Minister of State for Petroleum and Natural Gas Dharmendra Pradhan said on Wednesday
that Adnoc has successfully partnered with the Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserve Limited
(ISPRL) to store crude at India’s soon to be completed strategic oil reserve project in Mangalore.
The development comes as His Highness Shaikh Mohammad Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown
Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces visits India to
strengthen relations between the two countries.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
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India also announced that they would be increasing its oil imports from the UAE as the demand
grows due to rapid economic development.
India’s GDP grew by 7.3 per cent in the last quarter in 2015 and is set to grow by 7.6 per cent this
year.
More imports
The country is planning to increase its imports from the UAE by 15 per cent this year, Pradhan
said after a meeting with the UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazroui in New Delhi.
“Indian oil demand is growing
and they need more imports. Oil
exporting countries are looking for
customers and the main area of
growth is in Asia. India is
obviously the second largest oil
market in Asia and the one which
is growing strongest at the
moment,” Mills added.
Indian Petroleum Minister talked
about Indian companies interest
in acquiring a stake in Abu Dhabi
Company for Onshore Oil
Operations (Adco), concessions
but did not give details.
Justin Dargin, an energy expert from the University of Oxford said India, with it rapidly growing oil
consumption, seeks to secure access on favourable terms to productive fields in the Gulf that are
quite close to its territory.
“This is part of a growing trend of Asian countries seeking to acquire stakes in oil and gasfields
abroad in order to ensure access and in a bid to foster competitive import terms,” he said.
Talking about India’s partnership with Adnoc on oil storage, Dargin said the benefits of storing the
UAE oil is that it allows it a cushion to guard against supply disruptions and price volatility.
“In addition, the UAE benefits by being able to store oil when prices are particularly low, as they
are currently, and then release it on the global market when oil prices increase.”
The UAE makes up for 8 per cent of India’s oil imports and is the sixth largest supplier of crude oil
to India in 2014-15.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3
Qatar seen as manufacturing hub for industries in the GCC
Gulf Times - Peter Alagos/Business Reporter
Qatar could further stimulate activity in its manufacturing sector by serving as regional hub for
various industries in the Middle East, a Qatari businessman has told Gulf Times.
Aside from tourism and the country’s growing hospitality sector, Qatar’s hydrocarbon industry is
well-established in the international market since the leadership of HH the Father Emir Sheikh
Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, said local businessman Farhan al-Sayed, who is also the founder of
Qatar Extreme Sports (QES).
“The Father Emir, through his vision, has opened and diversified the market in the fields of
petrochemicals, fertilisers, by-products of oil and gas, and Aluminium, as well as tourism and
Qatar’s booming hotel industry due to the country’s hosting of the FIFA World Cup in 2022,” he
noted.
By establishing Qatar-based assembly plants or manufacturing facilities, al-Sayed said, many
industries such as the automobile sector will benefit from low transportation costs.
“A lot of things can be done since the Arabian Peninsula and the Middle East is quite a large
region…it depends on what we already have and what products are still not manufactured in the
region, but it would be a very good idea,” said al-Sayed during an interview.
He added: “At the end of the day, it’s all about cost, especially in terms of transportation of goods.
Many products are being manufactured in India and China. But transportation costs vary in
different areas and if they become expensive, the same goes with shipment costs. If Qatar
becomes a manufacturing hub for the region, then we can give a better price.”
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Al-Sayed’s statement echoes the views previously expressed by Adam Kulach, ambassador of the
EU delegation in the GCC. Kulach said the automobile industry’s diverse sectors like
manufacturing, assembly plants, and parts and service suppliers could benefit from the region’s oil
and gas industry.
Kulach pointed out that oil and plastic from producing GCC countries “are essential” in the
automotive industry. Aside from being a potential regional manufacturing hub, lower shipment
costs could also be achieved from the full operations of the Hamad Port, according to experts.
In terms bilateral trade, Philippine ambassador Wilfredo Santos previously said the new port will
hasten the transport of Philippine exports to Qatar since the goods will no longer need to pass
through Jebel Ali Port in Dubai.
Similarly, Thailand ambassador Piroon Laismit also stressed that Qatar can engage in direct trade
with any country thus, “enhancing further” Qatar’s import and export activities.
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or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5
Iraq: DNO to increase investment in the Kurdish region as it narrows loss
The National - Anthony McAuley
DNO, a Norway-based oil and gas operator controlled by RAK Petroleum, reported sharply lower
revenue last year, but a narrower loss and record volume from its principal assets in the Kurdistan
Region of Iraq.
The company also said that despite the financial loss, it would increase its investment in the
Kurdish region after the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) moved to normalise payments to oil
operators, despite lower oil prices and the costs of dealing with war.
It said revenue last year fell by 59 per cent to US$187 million, though its operating loss of $174m
was a 28 per cent improvement on the $243m loss the previous year as it cuts more than $50m in
costs.
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Production increased by 23 per cent at an average of 144,200 barrels of oil equivalent per day last
year, most of which came from the Tawke field it operates, DNO reported. It owns 55 per cent of
the field.
The company said that after consistent payments from the KRG since August, as well as a recent
announcement that payments dating from January would be at originally contractual rates plus
some towards arrears, it will make investments in Tawke to reverse natural field decline. DNO
says that would boost output by at least 10 per cent by the middle of this year and more
thereafter.
“DNO’s foot is coming off the brake and pressing on the accelerator,” said Bijan Mossavar-
Rahmani, the executive chairman of both DNO and RAK Petroleum. “The export payment
arrangement provides regularity, predictability and transparency, thereby laying the foundation for
stepped up investments in Kurdistan.”
Mr Mossavar-Rahmani also noted DNO’s balance sheet strength, with the company ending last
year with a cash balance of $238m, up from $114m a year earlier, after raising equity, and selling
down RAK’s stake to about 40 per cent, and refinancing its bond finance.
DNO says it will make $100m capital investment this year and the cost deflation in the industry
would “allow us to do more with less”. Last year, capital spending plummeted to $51m from
$297m the year before.
The company said that the average price it received for oil from Tawke last month, based on world
benchmark North Sea Brent minus a quality differential and pipeline tariff charges, was $18 per
barrel. The first payment under the new KRG scheme for January was $21.45m, to be shared with
partner Genel
Energy – $3.46m of
which was towards
arrears.
“Payments under
the new system are
lower than the
previous payments
because oil prices
have fallen so
much, but I wonder
if the KRG would
revert to the old
system when oil
prices rise?” asked
Teodor Sveen
Nilsen, an analyst at Swedbank.
Mr Mossavar-Rahmani said he thinks the new system will be sustained. “Now there is an
understanding that if the payments aren’t regular and predictable then investment stops and
production and revenue go down. This is the beginning of a process and we are pleased that at
least it is a start.”
He said DNO and the KRG have discussed alternatives to cash payments to pay down arrears,
including the transfer of some oil and gas properties.
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or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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Woodside Makes Second Gas Discovery Offshore Myanmar
Woodside has made second gas discovery offshore Myanmar’s. The company on Friday said
Thalin-1A exploration well in Block AD-7 in the Rakhine basin has intersected a gross gas column
of approximately 64m. Approximately 62m of net gas pay is interpreted within the primary target
interval.
Block AD-7 is located in the Bay of Bengal, approximately 100km offshore of the west coast of
Myanmar. Water depth at the Thalin-1A well location is 836m. The well reached a total depth of
3034m.
Following drilling, wireline logging was conducted and confirmed the presence of a gas column
through pressure measurements and gas sampling. The gas discovery at Thalin-1A follows an
earlier gas discovery by Woodside at the Shwe Yee Htun-1 well in Block A-6, announced in
January this year.
Woodside CEO Peter Coleman said the two discoveries at opposite ends of the Rakhine basin
was a great result for the company. “These results are very encouraging for future exploration and
appraisal activity; given the significant footprint we have in Myanmar.” he said.
Thalin-1A is located in the northern part of the Rakhine basin approximately 60km west of the
Daewoooperated producing Shwe field, which has onshore gas plant and pipeline gas export
facilities.
With a 40 percent interest in AD-7, Woodside Energy (Myanmar) Pte Ltd, is the operator with
respect to deepwater drilling. Daewoo International Corporation, with a 60 percent interest, is
operator for all other operations.
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or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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NewBase 14 February 2016 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
Oil gains 12.3% in best friday since Feb 2009
Reuters + NewBase
U.S. crude prices jumped as much as 13 percent on Friday after a report once again suggested
OPEC might finally agree to cut production to reduce the world glut, while a bounce in stock
markets fed appetite for risk.
Despite the strong daily gain, oil prices were poised to end the week down with significant losses.
But U.S. oil settled up more than 12 percent, for the best one-day gain since February 2009, when
WTI gained 14.04 percent.
The about-turn came after one of the most volatile weeks for oil, with prices initially falling nearly
14 percent over a four-day stretch before springing back higher.
The United Arab Emirates' energy minister said the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries was willing to cooperate on an output cut, the Wall Street Journal reported after
Thursday's settlement in U.S. futures. He also said cheap oil was forcing supply reductions that
would help rebalance the market.
The UAE's comments, coming after vain efforts earlier in the week by Venezuela and Russia to
stir Saudi Arabia and other major producers into agreeing to output cuts, was initially greeted with
skepticism by many traders.
But after a 75-percent price slump since mid-2014 that has taken crude prices to more than 12-
year lows, many were also inclined to believe that a rebound was due sooner or later if production
tightens or demand picks up.
"We expect declining U.S. oil production, in particular, to drive the oil price back up to $50 per
barrel by the end of the year," Frankfurt-based Commerzbank said in a note.
U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate futures settled up $3.23, or 12.32 percent, at $29.44 a
barrel, and was last trading up $2.83, or 10.76 percent, at $29.03 per barrel at at 3:29 p.m ET, off
the day's high of $29.66. It hit a 12-year low of $26.05 in the previous session. For the week, it
was on track for a 5.5 percent loss.
Brent was up $2.81, or 9.35 percent, at $32.89 per barrel. Weekly losses were pared to about 3.7
percent.
Crude prices extended gains after data showed an eighth straight weekly drop in the number of
U.S. rigs drilling for oil. Oilfield services firm Baker Hughes reported its weekly rig count fell by 28
to a total of 439, compared with 1,056 rigs at this time last year.
Oil price special
coverage
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Oil also got a boost from a rally in equity markets, with both U.S. and European shares
rebounding from recent weakness.
Some cited Monday's Presidents Day's holiday in the United States, saying fewer players wanted
to have a short position in oil ahead the longer weekend break for the New York crude market.
But others, like Tyche Capital Advisors' Tariq Zahir, were hoping to profit again from bearish bets
once the rally peaks. "It gives me great opportunity to put out new shorts in crude spreads," he
said.
Many expected wilder price swings in coming weeks. "It's not a one-way price movement
anymore," said ABN AMRO's senior energy economist Hans van Cleef. "We will see a period of
high volatility".
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US Oil Explorers Park Rigs as Crude Below $20 Seen
Bloomberg|David Wethe
Explorers idled more drilling rigs in U.S. oilfields this week as record supplies begin to make crude
prices in the teens a real possibility.
Rigs targeting oil in the U.S. fell by 28 to 439, after more than 1,000 were idled over the past year
and a half, Baker Hughes Inc. said on its website Friday. The report marks two straight months of
declines in the number of working rigs. Natural gas rigs were trimmed by 2 to 102, bringing the
total down by 30 to 541.
Supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, the biggest U.S. oil-storage hub, rose to a record 64.7 million
barrels last week, according to government data. The site is considered full at 73 million barrels.
"Oil has become so disconnected to the cost
of getting it from the ground that now we’re
trading on round numbers," said Stephen
Schork, president of the Schork Group Inc. in
Villanova, Pennsylvania. "The next target is
$25 and then we’ll head to $20. Oil in the
teens is a real prospect in the near future."
America’s oil drillers have been idling rigs
since October 2014 as the world’s largest
crude suppliers battle for market share.
Despite the cutbacks, U.S. production has
remained stubbornly high as new techniques
that increase efficiency keep the oil flowing.
U.S. production fell by 28,000 barrels last
week to 9.19 million barrels a day, according to weekly Energy Information Administration data. It
was the first time since early September that U.S. output declined for three weeks in a row.
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NewBase Special Coverage
News Agencies News Release 14 February 2016
How Opec and Russia could save the oil industry from itself
Gulf News - Jumana Al-Tamimi, Associate Editor
If global oil prices hope to recover from the current crash, an immediate cut in global production
ranging between 2 to 3 million barrels a day of oil is needed, experts say.
Currently, the market is so volatile that any news of an agreement between Opec and non-Opec
oil producing members, such as the comment from the UAE’s Energy Minister Suhail Mohammad
Al Mazroui last Thursday, can affect prices. On Friday, Brent oil prices jumped 10.98 per cent to
$33.36 (Dh122.43) a barrel following Al Mazroui’s comments that a deal between Opec and
Russia was being discussed. By comparison, last week, prices dropped below $28. However,
experts added that political differences between the two oil producing giants on several issues
have been hindering the reaching of an agreement.
Estimates on just how much would need to cut vary widely.
“Cutting Opec production by 2.2 million barrels a day could see prices rising to $60-$70/barrel in
less than two weeks,” said Mamdouh G. Salameh, an international oil economist based in London.
Two weeks after the initial news
that Russia and Saudi Arabia were
working on an agreement to cut
production by 5 per cent oil prices
were pushed up by 29 per cent
from $28 per barrel to $36 per
barrel, Salameh points out. He
said “the main obstacle is mistrust
between Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Russia says Opec members
caused the glut in the market so it
is up to them to cut production
first. Russia has committed itself
to match [an] Opec cut by cutting
its own production by 500,000
barrels a day (b/d),” Salameh said.
“Can you then imagine what the price jump would be if Opec announced a cut of 2.2 mbd. The
price would jump to between $60 to $70.”
However, other analysts point out that just a jump would be unsustainable, due to US shale oil. A
boom in shale oil in 2014 caused prices to drop from $115 in June of 2014 into the $30s in
January of 2015, although prices recovered to $60 later that year. The fall in prices were halted
largely due to shale’s own success. Rating agency S&P says it expects the average price of
global benchmark Brent crude to be around $40 per barrel.
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American shale oil
“With low oil prices, the cost of extracting shale oil became too expensive,” said Ahmad Al Najjar,
a Cairo-based economist, who points out that raising prices could result in another rush of
American shale oil into the market.
“The US [as an administration] is relieved with the low oil prices,” said Najjar. “It is buying oil at low
prices and is keeping the shale oil in its reserves. However, it is the American companies that are
hit by the low oil prices,” he told Gulf News in an interview. “Especially those companies that have
agreement and deals with other producing countries”.
Jodie Gunzberg, Global Head of Commodities and Real Assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices,
believes that any price recovery will depends on inventory levels, could take another two years to
erase even with a production cut agreement between Russia and Opec.
“Though sometimes, like in the global financial crisis, the demand isn’t strong enough to help [and]
the shortage persists, the recovery takes much longer. It is possible inventories could take double
the time now to recover from the severity of the oversupply. If this is the case, it is hard to see how
the oil price itself forms, for example, it is now over seven years from oil’s high in July 2008 and it
still is in a downtrend, despite an interim comeback where the price doubled from February 2009
— April 2011,” she added.
Naturally, it takes time for the glut to disappear but once prices start to rise, they develop their own
inertia.
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“Always remember that oil is like a coin: one side is economics and the other is geopolitics and
these two sides are inseparable,” Salameh said.
Global impact
Last January, oil prices hit their lowest levels since 2003 when they reached $27 per barrel. They
slightly recovered, but they are still under $35.00 per barrel. The crash in prices has hit oil
producers globally, with bond defaults and bankruptcies hitting US oil companies and Gulf nations
forced to adjust budgets to deal with falling revenue. To boost revenues, many Gulf countries
have cut energy subsidies and VAT (value added tax) is expected to be introduced in 2017.
Apart from reaching an agreement between Opec and non-Opec countries, oil prices could go up
if Opec members agree to cut their production, or even non-Opec producers cut their production,
said Jodie Gunzberg,
“It doesn’t really matter who initiates it [cut] but bigger and more stable producers are likely to
have a greater impact in the recovery,” she told Gulf News in a statement.
“However, it is difficult to coordinate since there is a mix of government, privately and publicly
owned companies involved in oil production. Saudi Arabia is the largest Opec oil producer, and
the Americas and former USSR have the biggest non-Opec production share,” she added.
Saudi Arabia, which produces 11.75 million barrel a day, produces nearly 13.24 per cent of all the
oil produced daily in the entire world. The US sits at second place with production equal to 12 per
cent of the total global production. The US recently overtook Russia to take the number two
position, thanks to a shale oil boom, a primary reason for the current glut in the market. Russia
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now in the third position globally produces over 10.3 million barrels per day, nearly 12 per cent of
world production.
Proportionate production
However, Salameh believed it is mainly Opec members that should cut their production.
“Saudi Arabia and all Opec members should reduce their production proportionately,” added
Salameh, who is a member of several international oil and energy organisations.
Saudi Arabia is the biggest producer and exporter in Opec, hence its approval to any decision is
crucial, he pointed out.
Also, “it [Saudi] accounts for the biggest increase in production in Opec followed by Iraq,” he
added in an email interview with Gulf News.
“It is OPEC’s responsibility since its members, and not US shale oil production, caused the glut in
the market by producing 2.2 million barrel per day above their agreed production ceiling of 30
million barrel per day.” Production caps have since been removed following the last Opec meeting
in November.
Commenting on the lack of action so far, Salameh said “because Saudi Arabia will not cut
production under the pretext of defending its market share nor will it let Opec do so.” Opec
officially started its policy of defending market share in November of 2014.
“Saudi oil strategy has four objectives. The first is defending its market share against Opec rivals
like Iraq and Iran and non-Opec rivals like Russia and Shale oil. The second is pre-empting Iraq’s
and Iran’s future demand for bigger production quotas within Opec. This can only be achieved if
Saudi Arabia reduced its own production to accommodate Iran & Iraq, something the Saudis
refuse to do,” Salameh said.
“The third objective is waging an oil war to undermine Iran’s economy in its undeclared war on
Iran because of its nuclear programme and its involvement in Syria. The fourth objective is to slow
down if not undermine US shale oil production,” he added.
New realities
But other experts expressed a different view. They believe up to three million barrel a day and
from all parties, inside and outside of Opec.
“There are nearly a surplus of 3 million barrels a day in the markets, and it will be difficult to
correct the situation because of the new realities on the ground,” Al Najjar said from Cairo
“You need a huge effort to change these realities,” he added when speaking toGulf News.
“The world is realising now that high dependence on oil is withdrawing,” said Najjar. “Now, the
biggest car companies are making electric cars … also, the electrical power production from solar
energy is becoming more and more of a moderate cost.”
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or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15
Renewables in the Arab world enter a new phase
Saudi Gazette
Renewable energy is seeing mixed for tunes in the Arab world. Energy-importing countries and
the UAE will continue to accelerate the development of their renewable-energy sectors. They will
continue to rely on supporting policies to press ahead, while energy-exporting countries lag
behind, Arab Petroleum Investment Corporation (Apicorp) said in its Energy Research issued this
month.
The
region has received some of the lowest renewable-energy prices awarded globally for both
photovoltaic (PV) and wind power; and with some of the best resources in the world, renewables
have great potential in the Arab world. But this needs governments to rise to the challenge and
improve the regulatory environment to attract investment in one of the fastest-growing energy
markets, the report noted.
Over the past decade, several Arab countries have announced ambitious renewable-energy
targets. With power demand across the region expected to grow at 9.9% a year until 2020,
governments are keen to increase the share of renewables in the power mix.
A shortage of gas and, in some countries, increasing reliance on liquid fuels, a key product for
export, have also added to the urgency of energy diversification while environmental concerns
increase.
But progress has been mixed, as net energy importers and net energy exporters face different
realities. To support their renewable sectors, countries such as Jordan and Egypt introduced feed-
in tariffs (FiTs), tax exemptions, and power-purchase agreements (PPAs). On the other hand,
energy-exporting countries have done little to incorporate renewables, as they continue to rely on
cheap-to-extract conventional sources to meet rising electricity demand. Falling technology prices
have given some countries an opportunity to move towards increasingly cost-competitive
renewable energy, while government support, like in other parts of the world, will be instrumental
in driving the growth of renewables in the region.
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Reliance on fuel imports to meet domestic demand and a rising import bill has pushed Morocco
and Jordan to diversify their energy sources. In Morocco, the government’s target of 2GW of solar
and 2GW of wind power by 2020 is on track. Current wind capacity is over 750MW. The large
increase in wind capacity over the past two years is attributed to the startup of the 300MW Tarfaya
wind project in 2014. The project is a joint venture between GDF Suez and Nareva Holding and
was financed by local banks.
As for solar, the 160MW
NOOR-1 concentrated solar
power (CSP) is anticipated to
be commissioned early this
year while NOOR-2 and
NOOR-3 are expected to add
a combined 350MW in 2017.
Upon completion, NOOR will
become the largest CSP
project in the world. The
multi-billion dollar project is
financed by international
development agencies
including the European
Investment Bank (EIB) and
the African Development
Bank.
Jordan’s commissioning of the 117MW Tafila wind project in the second half of 2015 was a
milestone for the kingdom. The project had an estimated cost of $287m and was financed by the
International Finance Corporation (IFC), EIB, and other international institutions. As for PV, the
country is expected to exceed its target of 600MW by 2020.
Capacity of 200MW is expected to come on line by the end of 2016 and an additional 300MW by
the end of 2017. These projects were also financed by various international institutions and banks.
More recently, Masdar, in the UAE, announced that it will build a 200MW PV plant for the Ministry
of Energy and Mineral Resources but no details have been provided.
The UAE has shown a serious commitment to developing solar energy. The 100MW Shams CSP
plant has been operational since 2014 in Abu Dhabi. The cost of the project was $600m and was
financed by international banks including BNP Paribas, National Bank of Abu Dhabi and Mizuho.
On the other hand, Masdar’s ambitious Nour project, which aims to develop 300MW of PV,
continues to face delays. In Dubai, the 13MW Phase I of Dubai’s solar park was completed in
2013. The 200MW Phase II has been awarded and will come on line in 2017 while Phase III is in
the tendering process, with plans to bring 800MW on line by 2020. The Dubai Electricity and
Water Authority is in charge of developing renewables in the emirate and aims to have 7% of
Dubai’s generation from renewables by 2020. Additionally, Dubai introduced net-metering in 2014
to promote small-scale solar in the residential sector. By 2030, Dubai will require all rooftops to
have solar panels as part of a strategy to generate 75% of electricity from solar by 2050.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17
Egypt was able to achieve $50/MWh for onshore wind (which has been beaten by Morocco in
January 2016). The price in the ACWA bid is equivalent to that for a combined cycle gas turbine
(CCGT) at around $2.70-5.00/MMBtu or $10-16/barrel. This is promising for the region given that
Qatar is the only Arab country with abundant cheap natural gas. Gas supplies in Abu Dhabi and
Egypt are estimated to cost in the range of $5-6/MMBtu and can be more expensive in other
countries. Based on these estimates, solar PV and onshore wind are capable of undercutting
conventional sources in some countries, despite the widespread perception that renewables are
not cost competitive.
Other net-exporting countries are struggling to kick start their programs. Large oil or gas reserves
and cheap extraction costs mean that hydrocarbons continue to meet rising demand in countries
like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar. Policy uncertainty and the lack of an efficient regulatory
framework are mainly responsible for slow progress.
In 2012, the King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy announced plans to invest
$109 billion to produce 41GW of solar by 2032 in the kingdom. But little progress has been made
so far. Given the large amount of investment required to reach this ambitious target, it is highly
unlikely that the government will meet its renewable targets for now. Other countries, such as
Kuwait, have declared a 15% renewable-energy target by 2020 but have only selected preferred
bidders for its 50MW Al-Shagaya CSP plant; while Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain have made minor
investments with no significant additions expected soon.
Despite many claims that renewable energy will never reach its potential unless subsidies are
phased out. Fuel subsidies are not the main constraint for renewable development and other
factors play a more important role. One problem lies in the electricity-market structure in Arab
countries. Almost all rely on a state-owned wholesale buyer to buy and sell electricity.
Government wholesale buyers decide the purchase
price of electricity from generators as well as the
selling price to consumers. If governments want to
keep prices low for end-consumers, there is nothing to
prevent them from incentivizing renewable-energy
sources in the same way they subsidize conventional
sources.
There are many reasons to be optimistic about the
future of renewables in the region. Net-importing
countries, driven by their desire to reduce dependency
on fuel imports even in a period of low oil prices, will continue to lead in investment and
deployment of renewable energy. But financing is becoming more challenging in the current
environment and these countries need to continue developing their regulatory framework to attract
investment into this sector.
For net-exporting countries, with the exception of the UAE, renewables will take a back seat as
they continue to rely primarily on conventional sources for additional capacity in the coming years
and will use demand-side efficiency and price reform as measures to tackle rising consumption.
But already the region has received some of the lowest renewable-energy prices awarded globally
for both PV and wind.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and
sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy
Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
Mobile: +97150-4822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in
the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for
Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy
consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE
operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations
Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility &
gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great
experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering &
regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, &
compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the
local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the
UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.
NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
NewBase 14 February 2016 K. Al Awadi
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 19
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 20

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New base 786 special 14 februaury 2016

  • 1. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase 14 February 2016 - Issue No. 786 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE India’s tie up with Adnoc on oil storage to give energy security Abu Dhabi: India’s partnership with Abu Dhabi National Oil Company in oil storage is likely to benefit India and protect its economy from crude price shocks and supply disruptions, experts said as energy ties between India and the UAE grow. “The storage is something that is important for energy security specially when there are threats to oil supplies in the region. India is close to the UAE and kind of an ideal place to develop strategic storage,” said Robin Mills, Chief Executive Officer of Dubai based consultancy firm Qamar Energy. Indian Minister of State for Petroleum and Natural Gas Dharmendra Pradhan said on Wednesday that Adnoc has successfully partnered with the Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserve Limited (ISPRL) to store crude at India’s soon to be completed strategic oil reserve project in Mangalore. The development comes as His Highness Shaikh Mohammad Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces visits India to strengthen relations between the two countries.
  • 2. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2 India also announced that they would be increasing its oil imports from the UAE as the demand grows due to rapid economic development. India’s GDP grew by 7.3 per cent in the last quarter in 2015 and is set to grow by 7.6 per cent this year. More imports The country is planning to increase its imports from the UAE by 15 per cent this year, Pradhan said after a meeting with the UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazroui in New Delhi. “Indian oil demand is growing and they need more imports. Oil exporting countries are looking for customers and the main area of growth is in Asia. India is obviously the second largest oil market in Asia and the one which is growing strongest at the moment,” Mills added. Indian Petroleum Minister talked about Indian companies interest in acquiring a stake in Abu Dhabi Company for Onshore Oil Operations (Adco), concessions but did not give details. Justin Dargin, an energy expert from the University of Oxford said India, with it rapidly growing oil consumption, seeks to secure access on favourable terms to productive fields in the Gulf that are quite close to its territory. “This is part of a growing trend of Asian countries seeking to acquire stakes in oil and gasfields abroad in order to ensure access and in a bid to foster competitive import terms,” he said. Talking about India’s partnership with Adnoc on oil storage, Dargin said the benefits of storing the UAE oil is that it allows it a cushion to guard against supply disruptions and price volatility. “In addition, the UAE benefits by being able to store oil when prices are particularly low, as they are currently, and then release it on the global market when oil prices increase.” The UAE makes up for 8 per cent of India’s oil imports and is the sixth largest supplier of crude oil to India in 2014-15.
  • 3. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3 Qatar seen as manufacturing hub for industries in the GCC Gulf Times - Peter Alagos/Business Reporter Qatar could further stimulate activity in its manufacturing sector by serving as regional hub for various industries in the Middle East, a Qatari businessman has told Gulf Times. Aside from tourism and the country’s growing hospitality sector, Qatar’s hydrocarbon industry is well-established in the international market since the leadership of HH the Father Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, said local businessman Farhan al-Sayed, who is also the founder of Qatar Extreme Sports (QES). “The Father Emir, through his vision, has opened and diversified the market in the fields of petrochemicals, fertilisers, by-products of oil and gas, and Aluminium, as well as tourism and Qatar’s booming hotel industry due to the country’s hosting of the FIFA World Cup in 2022,” he noted. By establishing Qatar-based assembly plants or manufacturing facilities, al-Sayed said, many industries such as the automobile sector will benefit from low transportation costs. “A lot of things can be done since the Arabian Peninsula and the Middle East is quite a large region…it depends on what we already have and what products are still not manufactured in the region, but it would be a very good idea,” said al-Sayed during an interview. He added: “At the end of the day, it’s all about cost, especially in terms of transportation of goods. Many products are being manufactured in India and China. But transportation costs vary in different areas and if they become expensive, the same goes with shipment costs. If Qatar becomes a manufacturing hub for the region, then we can give a better price.”
  • 4. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4 Al-Sayed’s statement echoes the views previously expressed by Adam Kulach, ambassador of the EU delegation in the GCC. Kulach said the automobile industry’s diverse sectors like manufacturing, assembly plants, and parts and service suppliers could benefit from the region’s oil and gas industry. Kulach pointed out that oil and plastic from producing GCC countries “are essential” in the automotive industry. Aside from being a potential regional manufacturing hub, lower shipment costs could also be achieved from the full operations of the Hamad Port, according to experts. In terms bilateral trade, Philippine ambassador Wilfredo Santos previously said the new port will hasten the transport of Philippine exports to Qatar since the goods will no longer need to pass through Jebel Ali Port in Dubai. Similarly, Thailand ambassador Piroon Laismit also stressed that Qatar can engage in direct trade with any country thus, “enhancing further” Qatar’s import and export activities.
  • 5. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5 Iraq: DNO to increase investment in the Kurdish region as it narrows loss The National - Anthony McAuley DNO, a Norway-based oil and gas operator controlled by RAK Petroleum, reported sharply lower revenue last year, but a narrower loss and record volume from its principal assets in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. The company also said that despite the financial loss, it would increase its investment in the Kurdish region after the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) moved to normalise payments to oil operators, despite lower oil prices and the costs of dealing with war. It said revenue last year fell by 59 per cent to US$187 million, though its operating loss of $174m was a 28 per cent improvement on the $243m loss the previous year as it cuts more than $50m in costs.
  • 6. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6 Production increased by 23 per cent at an average of 144,200 barrels of oil equivalent per day last year, most of which came from the Tawke field it operates, DNO reported. It owns 55 per cent of the field. The company said that after consistent payments from the KRG since August, as well as a recent announcement that payments dating from January would be at originally contractual rates plus some towards arrears, it will make investments in Tawke to reverse natural field decline. DNO says that would boost output by at least 10 per cent by the middle of this year and more thereafter. “DNO’s foot is coming off the brake and pressing on the accelerator,” said Bijan Mossavar- Rahmani, the executive chairman of both DNO and RAK Petroleum. “The export payment arrangement provides regularity, predictability and transparency, thereby laying the foundation for stepped up investments in Kurdistan.” Mr Mossavar-Rahmani also noted DNO’s balance sheet strength, with the company ending last year with a cash balance of $238m, up from $114m a year earlier, after raising equity, and selling down RAK’s stake to about 40 per cent, and refinancing its bond finance. DNO says it will make $100m capital investment this year and the cost deflation in the industry would “allow us to do more with less”. Last year, capital spending plummeted to $51m from $297m the year before. The company said that the average price it received for oil from Tawke last month, based on world benchmark North Sea Brent minus a quality differential and pipeline tariff charges, was $18 per barrel. The first payment under the new KRG scheme for January was $21.45m, to be shared with partner Genel Energy – $3.46m of which was towards arrears. “Payments under the new system are lower than the previous payments because oil prices have fallen so much, but I wonder if the KRG would revert to the old system when oil prices rise?” asked Teodor Sveen Nilsen, an analyst at Swedbank. Mr Mossavar-Rahmani said he thinks the new system will be sustained. “Now there is an understanding that if the payments aren’t regular and predictable then investment stops and production and revenue go down. This is the beginning of a process and we are pleased that at least it is a start.” He said DNO and the KRG have discussed alternatives to cash payments to pay down arrears, including the transfer of some oil and gas properties.
  • 7. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7 Woodside Makes Second Gas Discovery Offshore Myanmar Woodside has made second gas discovery offshore Myanmar’s. The company on Friday said Thalin-1A exploration well in Block AD-7 in the Rakhine basin has intersected a gross gas column of approximately 64m. Approximately 62m of net gas pay is interpreted within the primary target interval. Block AD-7 is located in the Bay of Bengal, approximately 100km offshore of the west coast of Myanmar. Water depth at the Thalin-1A well location is 836m. The well reached a total depth of 3034m. Following drilling, wireline logging was conducted and confirmed the presence of a gas column through pressure measurements and gas sampling. The gas discovery at Thalin-1A follows an earlier gas discovery by Woodside at the Shwe Yee Htun-1 well in Block A-6, announced in January this year. Woodside CEO Peter Coleman said the two discoveries at opposite ends of the Rakhine basin was a great result for the company. “These results are very encouraging for future exploration and appraisal activity; given the significant footprint we have in Myanmar.” he said. Thalin-1A is located in the northern part of the Rakhine basin approximately 60km west of the Daewoooperated producing Shwe field, which has onshore gas plant and pipeline gas export facilities. With a 40 percent interest in AD-7, Woodside Energy (Myanmar) Pte Ltd, is the operator with respect to deepwater drilling. Daewoo International Corporation, with a 60 percent interest, is operator for all other operations.
  • 8. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8 NewBase 14 February 2016 Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE Oil gains 12.3% in best friday since Feb 2009 Reuters + NewBase U.S. crude prices jumped as much as 13 percent on Friday after a report once again suggested OPEC might finally agree to cut production to reduce the world glut, while a bounce in stock markets fed appetite for risk. Despite the strong daily gain, oil prices were poised to end the week down with significant losses. But U.S. oil settled up more than 12 percent, for the best one-day gain since February 2009, when WTI gained 14.04 percent. The about-turn came after one of the most volatile weeks for oil, with prices initially falling nearly 14 percent over a four-day stretch before springing back higher. The United Arab Emirates' energy minister said the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was willing to cooperate on an output cut, the Wall Street Journal reported after Thursday's settlement in U.S. futures. He also said cheap oil was forcing supply reductions that would help rebalance the market. The UAE's comments, coming after vain efforts earlier in the week by Venezuela and Russia to stir Saudi Arabia and other major producers into agreeing to output cuts, was initially greeted with skepticism by many traders. But after a 75-percent price slump since mid-2014 that has taken crude prices to more than 12- year lows, many were also inclined to believe that a rebound was due sooner or later if production tightens or demand picks up. "We expect declining U.S. oil production, in particular, to drive the oil price back up to $50 per barrel by the end of the year," Frankfurt-based Commerzbank said in a note. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate futures settled up $3.23, or 12.32 percent, at $29.44 a barrel, and was last trading up $2.83, or 10.76 percent, at $29.03 per barrel at at 3:29 p.m ET, off the day's high of $29.66. It hit a 12-year low of $26.05 in the previous session. For the week, it was on track for a 5.5 percent loss. Brent was up $2.81, or 9.35 percent, at $32.89 per barrel. Weekly losses were pared to about 3.7 percent. Crude prices extended gains after data showed an eighth straight weekly drop in the number of U.S. rigs drilling for oil. Oilfield services firm Baker Hughes reported its weekly rig count fell by 28 to a total of 439, compared with 1,056 rigs at this time last year. Oil price special coverage
  • 9. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9 Oil also got a boost from a rally in equity markets, with both U.S. and European shares rebounding from recent weakness. Some cited Monday's Presidents Day's holiday in the United States, saying fewer players wanted to have a short position in oil ahead the longer weekend break for the New York crude market. But others, like Tyche Capital Advisors' Tariq Zahir, were hoping to profit again from bearish bets once the rally peaks. "It gives me great opportunity to put out new shorts in crude spreads," he said. Many expected wilder price swings in coming weeks. "It's not a one-way price movement anymore," said ABN AMRO's senior energy economist Hans van Cleef. "We will see a period of high volatility".
  • 10. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 10 US Oil Explorers Park Rigs as Crude Below $20 Seen Bloomberg|David Wethe Explorers idled more drilling rigs in U.S. oilfields this week as record supplies begin to make crude prices in the teens a real possibility. Rigs targeting oil in the U.S. fell by 28 to 439, after more than 1,000 were idled over the past year and a half, Baker Hughes Inc. said on its website Friday. The report marks two straight months of declines in the number of working rigs. Natural gas rigs were trimmed by 2 to 102, bringing the total down by 30 to 541. Supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, the biggest U.S. oil-storage hub, rose to a record 64.7 million barrels last week, according to government data. The site is considered full at 73 million barrels. "Oil has become so disconnected to the cost of getting it from the ground that now we’re trading on round numbers," said Stephen Schork, president of the Schork Group Inc. in Villanova, Pennsylvania. "The next target is $25 and then we’ll head to $20. Oil in the teens is a real prospect in the near future." America’s oil drillers have been idling rigs since October 2014 as the world’s largest crude suppliers battle for market share. Despite the cutbacks, U.S. production has remained stubbornly high as new techniques that increase efficiency keep the oil flowing. U.S. production fell by 28,000 barrels last week to 9.19 million barrels a day, according to weekly Energy Information Administration data. It was the first time since early September that U.S. output declined for three weeks in a row.
  • 11. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 11 NewBase Special Coverage News Agencies News Release 14 February 2016 How Opec and Russia could save the oil industry from itself Gulf News - Jumana Al-Tamimi, Associate Editor If global oil prices hope to recover from the current crash, an immediate cut in global production ranging between 2 to 3 million barrels a day of oil is needed, experts say. Currently, the market is so volatile that any news of an agreement between Opec and non-Opec oil producing members, such as the comment from the UAE’s Energy Minister Suhail Mohammad Al Mazroui last Thursday, can affect prices. On Friday, Brent oil prices jumped 10.98 per cent to $33.36 (Dh122.43) a barrel following Al Mazroui’s comments that a deal between Opec and Russia was being discussed. By comparison, last week, prices dropped below $28. However, experts added that political differences between the two oil producing giants on several issues have been hindering the reaching of an agreement. Estimates on just how much would need to cut vary widely. “Cutting Opec production by 2.2 million barrels a day could see prices rising to $60-$70/barrel in less than two weeks,” said Mamdouh G. Salameh, an international oil economist based in London. Two weeks after the initial news that Russia and Saudi Arabia were working on an agreement to cut production by 5 per cent oil prices were pushed up by 29 per cent from $28 per barrel to $36 per barrel, Salameh points out. He said “the main obstacle is mistrust between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Russia says Opec members caused the glut in the market so it is up to them to cut production first. Russia has committed itself to match [an] Opec cut by cutting its own production by 500,000 barrels a day (b/d),” Salameh said. “Can you then imagine what the price jump would be if Opec announced a cut of 2.2 mbd. The price would jump to between $60 to $70.” However, other analysts point out that just a jump would be unsustainable, due to US shale oil. A boom in shale oil in 2014 caused prices to drop from $115 in June of 2014 into the $30s in January of 2015, although prices recovered to $60 later that year. The fall in prices were halted largely due to shale’s own success. Rating agency S&P says it expects the average price of global benchmark Brent crude to be around $40 per barrel.
  • 12. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12 American shale oil “With low oil prices, the cost of extracting shale oil became too expensive,” said Ahmad Al Najjar, a Cairo-based economist, who points out that raising prices could result in another rush of American shale oil into the market. “The US [as an administration] is relieved with the low oil prices,” said Najjar. “It is buying oil at low prices and is keeping the shale oil in its reserves. However, it is the American companies that are hit by the low oil prices,” he told Gulf News in an interview. “Especially those companies that have agreement and deals with other producing countries”. Jodie Gunzberg, Global Head of Commodities and Real Assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices, believes that any price recovery will depends on inventory levels, could take another two years to erase even with a production cut agreement between Russia and Opec. “Though sometimes, like in the global financial crisis, the demand isn’t strong enough to help [and] the shortage persists, the recovery takes much longer. It is possible inventories could take double the time now to recover from the severity of the oversupply. If this is the case, it is hard to see how the oil price itself forms, for example, it is now over seven years from oil’s high in July 2008 and it still is in a downtrend, despite an interim comeback where the price doubled from February 2009 — April 2011,” she added. Naturally, it takes time for the glut to disappear but once prices start to rise, they develop their own inertia.
  • 13. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 13 “Always remember that oil is like a coin: one side is economics and the other is geopolitics and these two sides are inseparable,” Salameh said. Global impact Last January, oil prices hit their lowest levels since 2003 when they reached $27 per barrel. They slightly recovered, but they are still under $35.00 per barrel. The crash in prices has hit oil producers globally, with bond defaults and bankruptcies hitting US oil companies and Gulf nations forced to adjust budgets to deal with falling revenue. To boost revenues, many Gulf countries have cut energy subsidies and VAT (value added tax) is expected to be introduced in 2017. Apart from reaching an agreement between Opec and non-Opec countries, oil prices could go up if Opec members agree to cut their production, or even non-Opec producers cut their production, said Jodie Gunzberg, “It doesn’t really matter who initiates it [cut] but bigger and more stable producers are likely to have a greater impact in the recovery,” she told Gulf News in a statement. “However, it is difficult to coordinate since there is a mix of government, privately and publicly owned companies involved in oil production. Saudi Arabia is the largest Opec oil producer, and the Americas and former USSR have the biggest non-Opec production share,” she added. Saudi Arabia, which produces 11.75 million barrel a day, produces nearly 13.24 per cent of all the oil produced daily in the entire world. The US sits at second place with production equal to 12 per cent of the total global production. The US recently overtook Russia to take the number two position, thanks to a shale oil boom, a primary reason for the current glut in the market. Russia
  • 14. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 14 now in the third position globally produces over 10.3 million barrels per day, nearly 12 per cent of world production. Proportionate production However, Salameh believed it is mainly Opec members that should cut their production. “Saudi Arabia and all Opec members should reduce their production proportionately,” added Salameh, who is a member of several international oil and energy organisations. Saudi Arabia is the biggest producer and exporter in Opec, hence its approval to any decision is crucial, he pointed out. Also, “it [Saudi] accounts for the biggest increase in production in Opec followed by Iraq,” he added in an email interview with Gulf News. “It is OPEC’s responsibility since its members, and not US shale oil production, caused the glut in the market by producing 2.2 million barrel per day above their agreed production ceiling of 30 million barrel per day.” Production caps have since been removed following the last Opec meeting in November. Commenting on the lack of action so far, Salameh said “because Saudi Arabia will not cut production under the pretext of defending its market share nor will it let Opec do so.” Opec officially started its policy of defending market share in November of 2014. “Saudi oil strategy has four objectives. The first is defending its market share against Opec rivals like Iraq and Iran and non-Opec rivals like Russia and Shale oil. The second is pre-empting Iraq’s and Iran’s future demand for bigger production quotas within Opec. This can only be achieved if Saudi Arabia reduced its own production to accommodate Iran & Iraq, something the Saudis refuse to do,” Salameh said. “The third objective is waging an oil war to undermine Iran’s economy in its undeclared war on Iran because of its nuclear programme and its involvement in Syria. The fourth objective is to slow down if not undermine US shale oil production,” he added. New realities But other experts expressed a different view. They believe up to three million barrel a day and from all parties, inside and outside of Opec. “There are nearly a surplus of 3 million barrels a day in the markets, and it will be difficult to correct the situation because of the new realities on the ground,” Al Najjar said from Cairo “You need a huge effort to change these realities,” he added when speaking toGulf News. “The world is realising now that high dependence on oil is withdrawing,” said Najjar. “Now, the biggest car companies are making electric cars … also, the electrical power production from solar energy is becoming more and more of a moderate cost.”
  • 15. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15 Renewables in the Arab world enter a new phase Saudi Gazette Renewable energy is seeing mixed for tunes in the Arab world. Energy-importing countries and the UAE will continue to accelerate the development of their renewable-energy sectors. They will continue to rely on supporting policies to press ahead, while energy-exporting countries lag behind, Arab Petroleum Investment Corporation (Apicorp) said in its Energy Research issued this month. The region has received some of the lowest renewable-energy prices awarded globally for both photovoltaic (PV) and wind power; and with some of the best resources in the world, renewables have great potential in the Arab world. But this needs governments to rise to the challenge and improve the regulatory environment to attract investment in one of the fastest-growing energy markets, the report noted. Over the past decade, several Arab countries have announced ambitious renewable-energy targets. With power demand across the region expected to grow at 9.9% a year until 2020, governments are keen to increase the share of renewables in the power mix. A shortage of gas and, in some countries, increasing reliance on liquid fuels, a key product for export, have also added to the urgency of energy diversification while environmental concerns increase. But progress has been mixed, as net energy importers and net energy exporters face different realities. To support their renewable sectors, countries such as Jordan and Egypt introduced feed- in tariffs (FiTs), tax exemptions, and power-purchase agreements (PPAs). On the other hand, energy-exporting countries have done little to incorporate renewables, as they continue to rely on cheap-to-extract conventional sources to meet rising electricity demand. Falling technology prices have given some countries an opportunity to move towards increasingly cost-competitive renewable energy, while government support, like in other parts of the world, will be instrumental in driving the growth of renewables in the region.
  • 16. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16 Reliance on fuel imports to meet domestic demand and a rising import bill has pushed Morocco and Jordan to diversify their energy sources. In Morocco, the government’s target of 2GW of solar and 2GW of wind power by 2020 is on track. Current wind capacity is over 750MW. The large increase in wind capacity over the past two years is attributed to the startup of the 300MW Tarfaya wind project in 2014. The project is a joint venture between GDF Suez and Nareva Holding and was financed by local banks. As for solar, the 160MW NOOR-1 concentrated solar power (CSP) is anticipated to be commissioned early this year while NOOR-2 and NOOR-3 are expected to add a combined 350MW in 2017. Upon completion, NOOR will become the largest CSP project in the world. The multi-billion dollar project is financed by international development agencies including the European Investment Bank (EIB) and the African Development Bank. Jordan’s commissioning of the 117MW Tafila wind project in the second half of 2015 was a milestone for the kingdom. The project had an estimated cost of $287m and was financed by the International Finance Corporation (IFC), EIB, and other international institutions. As for PV, the country is expected to exceed its target of 600MW by 2020. Capacity of 200MW is expected to come on line by the end of 2016 and an additional 300MW by the end of 2017. These projects were also financed by various international institutions and banks. More recently, Masdar, in the UAE, announced that it will build a 200MW PV plant for the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources but no details have been provided. The UAE has shown a serious commitment to developing solar energy. The 100MW Shams CSP plant has been operational since 2014 in Abu Dhabi. The cost of the project was $600m and was financed by international banks including BNP Paribas, National Bank of Abu Dhabi and Mizuho. On the other hand, Masdar’s ambitious Nour project, which aims to develop 300MW of PV, continues to face delays. In Dubai, the 13MW Phase I of Dubai’s solar park was completed in 2013. The 200MW Phase II has been awarded and will come on line in 2017 while Phase III is in the tendering process, with plans to bring 800MW on line by 2020. The Dubai Electricity and Water Authority is in charge of developing renewables in the emirate and aims to have 7% of Dubai’s generation from renewables by 2020. Additionally, Dubai introduced net-metering in 2014 to promote small-scale solar in the residential sector. By 2030, Dubai will require all rooftops to have solar panels as part of a strategy to generate 75% of electricity from solar by 2050.
  • 17. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17 Egypt was able to achieve $50/MWh for onshore wind (which has been beaten by Morocco in January 2016). The price in the ACWA bid is equivalent to that for a combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) at around $2.70-5.00/MMBtu or $10-16/barrel. This is promising for the region given that Qatar is the only Arab country with abundant cheap natural gas. Gas supplies in Abu Dhabi and Egypt are estimated to cost in the range of $5-6/MMBtu and can be more expensive in other countries. Based on these estimates, solar PV and onshore wind are capable of undercutting conventional sources in some countries, despite the widespread perception that renewables are not cost competitive. Other net-exporting countries are struggling to kick start their programs. Large oil or gas reserves and cheap extraction costs mean that hydrocarbons continue to meet rising demand in countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar. Policy uncertainty and the lack of an efficient regulatory framework are mainly responsible for slow progress. In 2012, the King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy announced plans to invest $109 billion to produce 41GW of solar by 2032 in the kingdom. But little progress has been made so far. Given the large amount of investment required to reach this ambitious target, it is highly unlikely that the government will meet its renewable targets for now. Other countries, such as Kuwait, have declared a 15% renewable-energy target by 2020 but have only selected preferred bidders for its 50MW Al-Shagaya CSP plant; while Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain have made minor investments with no significant additions expected soon. Despite many claims that renewable energy will never reach its potential unless subsidies are phased out. Fuel subsidies are not the main constraint for renewable development and other factors play a more important role. One problem lies in the electricity-market structure in Arab countries. Almost all rely on a state-owned wholesale buyer to buy and sell electricity. Government wholesale buyers decide the purchase price of electricity from generators as well as the selling price to consumers. If governments want to keep prices low for end-consumers, there is nothing to prevent them from incentivizing renewable-energy sources in the same way they subsidize conventional sources. There are many reasons to be optimistic about the future of renewables in the region. Net-importing countries, driven by their desire to reduce dependency on fuel imports even in a period of low oil prices, will continue to lead in investment and deployment of renewable energy. But financing is becoming more challenging in the current environment and these countries need to continue developing their regulatory framework to attract investment into this sector. For net-exporting countries, with the exception of the UAE, renewables will take a back seat as they continue to rely primarily on conventional sources for additional capacity in the coming years and will use demand-side efficiency and price reform as measures to tackle rising consumption. But already the region has received some of the lowest renewable-energy prices awarded globally for both PV and wind.
  • 18. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18 NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Your partner in Energy Services NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE. For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010 Mobile: +97150-4822502 khdmohd@hawkenergy.net khdmohd@hotmail.com Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE NewBase 14 February 2016 K. Al Awadi
  • 19. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 19
  • 20. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 20