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NewBase Energy News 28 December 2017 - Issue No. 1120 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
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New base 28 december 2017 energy news issue 1120 by khaled al awadi
1.
Copyright © 2015
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase Energy News 28 December 2017 - Issue No. 1120 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE UAE: Fuel prices increase in UAE for January 2018, 4% & 6% Gulf News + NewBase + MOE The Ministry of Energy has announced on Wednesday, December 27, new petrol prices for January, 2018 in the UAE. The per litre prices will be Super 98 at Dh2.24 (up from Dh2.15) ; Special 95 at Dh2.12 (from Dh2.04) ; E Plus-91 at Dh2.05 (slight hike from Dh1.97) . And diesel price has been fixed at Dh2.33 (hiked from Dh2.20) per litre. UAE fuel prices are linked to international crude oil prices. Brent, the global benchmark, surged to above $60 a barrel for the first time in more than two years on October 28, amid enthusiasm that Opec may extend its output deal. UAE has cut up to 10 per cent of their oil exports in the last two months in accordance with the Opec agreement, energy minister Suhail Al Mazroui said on September 25. In December 2016, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) struck a deal to reduce output by about 1.8 million barrels a day. This was extended for another nine months in May to go on till March, 2018.
2.
Copyright © 2015
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2 Saudi Sabic award Samsung Engineering $700m plant deal Arabia Trade + NewBase Samsung Engineering has received a contract from Sabic’s manufacturing affiliate, Jubail United Petrochemical Company (United), for the construction of a $700-million ethylene oxide–ethylene glycol (EO/EG) plant in Saudi Arabia. The plant's production capacity will be 700,000 metric tonnes of ethylene glycol per year. The project will be executed in Jubail Industrial City located 100 km north of Dammam. Construction completion expected in 2020, said Samsung Engineering. Samsung Engineering President & CEO Sungan Choi and United's President Abdullah Al Shamrani signed the contract at ceremony. Samsung Engineering is the one of top EG plant builders globally, with previously delivering 16 plants in total. Samsung benefits from the track record and experience of delivering 27 projects to Saudi Arabia, 22 to Sabic-related companies including United. Further, during the last 10 years, Samsung Engineering built EG plants around the globe in countries such as the US, Malaysia, Thailand and India. A Samsung Engineering spokesperson stated: "We are eager to provide the finest plant for Saudi Arabia. “With JUPC’s trust and our proven track record in EO/EG plants and Saudi Arabia we will provide the best services possible and looking forward to work with United with many further years to come.” –
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3 UAE; Adnoc, OCP Moroco ink long-term deal for sulphur supply Gulf News + NewBase The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) has signed a long-term sales agreement with the OCP Group of Morocco (OCP) for the supply of granulated sulphur. Under the agreement, Adnoc, one of the world’s largest exporters of sulphur, will steadily supply OCP, the largest worldwide sulphur importer, until 2025. The two parties agreed to consider a gradual increase of the contracted annual volumes. Adnoc exported more than 2 million metric tons of granulated sulphur to Morocco in 2016. Abdulla Salem Al Dhaheri, marketing, sales and trading director at Adnoc, said: “This landmark agreement, which is unique in the sulphur industry, strengthens Adnoc’s position as one of the world’s largest exporters of sulphur. It will reinforce the sustainable supply of sulphur to Morocco and enhance our ability to achieve positive margins.” Significant synergies exist between Adnoc and OCP, allowing the two companies to explore various opportunities for a larger cooperation. Mustapha El Ouafi, managing director at OCP, said: “Since 2008, OCP has initiated the largest investment program in the fertilizer industry with the objective of doubling its mining capacity and tripling its fertilizer capacity. Our ambitious program will see OCP further strengthen its position as the world’s largest fertilizer producer and a leading player in the agribusiness value chain. As such, we are committed to further developing a reliable and strategic partnership with Adnoc.” As a by-product of its sour gas operations, Adnoc and partners produce more than 6 million tons of sulphur annually, exporting it to customers from its state-of-the-art sulphur handling facilities in Ruwais, UAE. The amount of sulphur available for export will increase over the next decade as Adnoc and partners bring new sour gas projects on line, as part of its plans to achieve gas self- sufficiency by 2030. -
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4 India challenges China as world's biggest LPG importer Reuters - Henning Gloystein India is set to surpass China as the biggest importer of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) this month as a drive to replace wood and animal dung fires for cooking boosts consumption. Shipping data in Thomson Reuters Eikon shows LPG shipments to India will reach 2.4 million tonnes in December, pushing it ahead of top importer China, on 2.3 million tonnes, for the first time. India’s LPG purchases have surged from just 1 million tonnes a month in early 2015 on the back of a government program to bring energy to millions of poor households relying on open fires. “The growth in India is amazing. The fact that they have grown from 140 million subsidized household connections in 2015 to 181 million now is very impressive,” Ted Young, chief financial officer at Dorian LPG told Reuters. With a fleet of 22 tankers, U.S.-based Dorian is one of the world’s biggest LPG shippers. LPG, a mixture of propane and butane, is used for cooking and transport, as well as in the petrochemical industry. The global market is similar in size to liquefied natural gas (LNG), at around 300 million tonnes traded a year, although both are dwarfed by the market for crude oil, which stands at well over 4 billion tonnes a year. India’s average monthly imports in 2017 of about 1.7 million tonnes are well still behind China’s 2.2 million tonnes, but it has jumped ahead of third-placed Japan on about 1 million tonnes. Dorian LPG expects “plenty of upside for Indian LPG” imports due to rising use in cars following
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Copyright © 2015
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5 an Indian tax on gasoline, the company said in a presentation this month. China, India and Japan together make up about 45 percent of global LPG purchases. NEW SUPPLIER: USA India’s biggest supplier by a large margin is the Middle East, which has so far enjoyed a virtual supply monopoly. However, a surge in U.S. shale drilling, which yields LPG as a byproduct of crude oil and natural gas output, means American LPG exports have started to appear in India. Eikon data shows the first regular U.S. LPG shipments to India began at the start of 2017 at around 50,000 tonnes to 100,000 tonnes a month, rising to more than 200,000 tonnes in December. While that is just a tenth of Middle Eastern shipments, U.S. LPG is becoming increasingly price competitive. Propane at the Texan Mont Belvieu hub costs $99 cents per gallon ($516 per ton), excluding freight. The current Saudi contract price is $590 a ton, excluding shipping. U.S. suppliers have already made big inroads in Japan, currently meeting half of all demand.
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Copyright © 2015
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6 U.K: New U.K. Oil Field Brings Relief After Pipeline Outage Bloomberg - Angelina Rascouet + Wood Mackenzie Ltd. A new U.K. North Sea oil field came online last week, offering one of the country’s largest independent operators some relief from a pipeline halt that forced a significant portion of the region’s output to stop. The startup of Premier Oil Plc’s Catcher field caps the biggest year for new offshore oil and gas projects in the country for about a decade. While the U.K. industry has shown surprising resilience to the three-year crude price slump, that success was marred earlier this month when a fault in a crucial pipeline underscored its reliance on aging infrastructure. New oil from Catcher, half of which is owned by Premier, offset only a fraction of the 400,000 barrels a day of output halted earlier this month after Ineos AG discovered a hairline crack on the Forties pipeline. Partial flows through the conduit restarted after the completion of repairs and will increase gradually, Ineos said on Tuesday. The $1.6 billion project began production on Dec. 23 at an initial rate of 10,000 barrels a day, which will rise to 60,000 barrels a day in the first half of next year, Premier said in a statement on Wednesday. The shutdown of the crucial Forties pipeline wouldn’t have affected the project, which will pump its oil directly onto tankers. "Delivery of first oil from the Catcher Area represents a significant milestone for Premier,” Chief Executive Officer Tony Durrant said in the statement. “As production ramps up in the first half of 2018, the increased cash flows will play an important role in Premier’s plans for debt reduction.”
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7 Premier shares rose as much as 7.2 percent, the most in more than a month, before trading 3.9 percent higher at 79.25 pence at 8:42 a.m. in London. A significant part of Premier’s production in the U.K. North Sea was affected by the Forties outage, including the Elgin-Franklin, Balmoral, Brenda and Nicol fields. The disruption prompted the International Energy Agency to lower its December production forecast for the U.K. by 300,000 barrels a day. In 2018, the IEA expects U.K. output to grow by 150,000 barrels a day to 1.17 million a day as other new fields ramp up. Catcher was among 14 projects with combined peak production of 230,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day scheduled to begin production the U.K. North Sea this year, according to an analysis from consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd. in September. That would be the most since 2007, reflecting the payoff from multiyear investments begun when oil prices were still over $100 a barrel.
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8 NewBase December 28 - 2017 Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE Oil Prices near mid-2015 highs on strong China data, tighter 2018 outlook Reuters + Bloomberg + NewBase Oil prices rose on Thursday, lifted by strong data from top importer China amid thin trading activity ahead of the New Year weekend. Heading into 2018, traders said market conditions were relatively tight due to ongoing supply cuts led by the Middle East-dominated Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), as well as top producer Russia. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were at $59.82 a barrel at 0744 GMT, up 18 cents or 0.3 percent from their last settlement. WTI broke through $60 a barrel earlier this week, the first time since June 2015. WTI received support from a report by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showing a 6 million barrel drop in crude oil inventories to 432.8 million. Oil price special coverage
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9 Brent crude futures LCOc1 were at $66.68 a barrel, up 24 cents or 0.4 percent. Brent broke through $67 earlier this week, the first time since May 2015 this week. Amid strong global demand and rising investor interest, trading in crude derivatives is booming, with annual Brent and spot WTI volumes hitting a new record in 2017. Traders said the higher prices came after China released strong import quotas for 2018, which could lead to another record for purchases by the world’s biggest importer. China’s oil thirst has also led to a 3 percent monthly drawdown in its crude inventories in November, to 26.15 million tonnes, the lowest level in seven years, according to Xinhua data on Thursday. Oil markets have also been tightened following a year of OPEC and Russia-led production cuts, which were started last January and scheduled to cover all of 2018. Pipeline outages in Libya and the North Sea have also been supporting oil prices. “Given the much stronger price response to supply disruptions in the wake of OPEC supply cuts, the market is poised to make further gains,” said Stephen Innes, head of trading for Asia/Pacific at futures brokerage Oanda. “With geopolitical risk no less sure ahead of Libyan elections next year, we should expect more regional chaos and disorder to underpin oil prices,” he added. Around 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) in oil supplies were disrupted in Libya this week after an attack on a pipeline. In the North Sea, the 450,000 bpd capacity Forties pipeline system was shut earlier this month due to a crack. Both pipelines are expected to return to normal operations in January, with Forties already in start-up process. Countering efforts by OPEC and Russia efforts to prop up prices is U.S. oil production C-OUT-T- EIA, which has soared more than 16 percent since mid-2016 and is fast approaching 10 million bpd. WTI Prices Trades Above $59 as Libyan Output Falls After Pipeline Blast Oil traded above $59 a barrel as crude production in Libya fell below 1 million barrels a day after a pipeline explosion Tuesday. Futures were little changed in New York after slipping for the first time in more than a week Wednesday. While the halt at the pipeline that carries crude to Libya’s biggest export terminal will keep output below the cap it agreed to last month, it is said to need about a week for repairs. Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute was said to report U.S. inventories dropped last week. Government data is also forecast to show stockpiles declined.
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Copyright © 2015
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 10 Oil is heading for a second yearly advance as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners including Russia extended supply curbs through the end of 2018. The disruption in the North African nation lifted prices to the highest level in more than two years on Tuesday, offsetting the impact from the return of a major U.K. North Sea pipeline after a shutdown. “Oil’s rally on the pipeline explosion in Libya may be short-lived as it’s been reported that the repair may not take too much time,” Kim Yumi, a Seoul-based market strategist at Kiwoom Securities Co., said by phone. “We will continue to see prices easing and then being elevated again because while falling stockpiles support prices, rising U.S. production will restrain any increase.” West Texas Intermediate for February delivery was at $59.78 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 14 cents, at 4:06 p.m. in Seoul. Total volume traded was about 34 percent below the 100-day average. The contract dropped 33 cents to $59.64 Wednesday. Brent for February settlement, which expires Thursday, added 18 cents to $66.62 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange after falling 0.9 percent Wednesday. The global benchmark crude traded at a premium of $6.85 to WTI. The more-active March contract was 19 cents higher at $66.18. Libya’s production dropped to 950,000 barrels a day on Wednesday, a person directly involved in the matter said. Output was 1.08 million barrels a day as of Dec. 18, indicating a drop of 12 percent. While loadings at the Es Sider port are said to be down about 50 percent, it was scheduled to ship 13 cargoes this month, each carrying 600,000 barrels of crude, according to a loading plan obtained by Bloomberg. U.S. crude stockpiles dropped 5.96 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute was said to report. Gasoline inventories rose by 3.13 million barrels last week, according to the API. Oil stockpiles probably contracted by 3.75 million barrels last week, according to the median estimate of analysts in a Bloomberg survey before the release of Energy Information Administration data Thursday.
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 11 Five Oil Signals to Watch in 2018 By Alex Longley OPEC and its allies are heading into the second year of supply cuts to wipe out the global oil glut, while rising U.S. output is threatening those efforts. Geopolitical tensions also add a wild card to the market mix. As oil watchers seek to plot a course through the year ahead, they’ll be paying close attention to signals ranging from timespreads to options contracts. Here are five key barometers to watch as 2018 unfolds: 1. The Shale Signal WTI’s discount to Brent closed at its widest level in more than two years on Tuesday as an explosion at an oil pipeline in Libya boosted the global benchmark. That came after Hurricane Harvey kept supplies locked in the U.S. earlier in the year, providing the first trigger for a wider spread and bumper U.S. exports. With shale growth driving forecasts of record U.S. supply in 2018, that could lead to a further expansion in the spread. “If we get more shale and Canadian crude in the first half, and OPEC cuts hold, then it should widen,” said Richard Fullarton, founder of London-based commodity hedge fund Matilda Capital Management Ltd. 2. OPEC’s Bellwether Brent crude surged into a bullish, backwardated structure this year as OPEC-led output cuts tightened global supplies. December 2018 futures climbed to their highest premium ever versus the same month for 2019 this week, and the spread may expand further as OPEC’s cuts drive the oil market toward balance next year, according to Abhishek Deshpande, head of oil research at JPMorgan Chase & Co. “We are more comfortable with a balanced market to take a view of going long that spread,” said Deshpande.
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12 3. Lottery Tickets With geopolitical risks flaring in a host of major oil producers, funds have been busy snapping up bullish oil options contracts that would profit from a sharp spike in crude prices. The December 2018 $100 call remains the most-held Brent options contract, while $80 calls equating to more than 30 million barrels for the latter part of next year traded in recent weeks. Venezuela, Iran and Saudi Arabia top the list of countries that could see oil-related disruptions in 2018, RBC Capital Markets LLC analysts including Helima Croft wrote earlier this month. 4. Volatility Vacuum Despite those risks, volatility has plunged to the lowest in more than three years in recent weeks as a steady grind higher in prices took some of the fizz out of the oil market. With the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries clearly signposting its plans for 2018, banks including Societe
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 13 Generale SA expect to see a continued slide in volatility next year. “OPEC’s decision to proactively manage the market is going to keep volatility flat as a pancake,” Amrita Sen, chief oil market analyst at Energy Aspects Ltd., wrote earlier this month. 5. How Long? The market is heading into 2018 near a record number of bullish bets in Brent and WTI combined, exchange data show. Those contracts, which now outstrip bearish ones by seven to one, have led to concerns that crude may soon see a speculator-driven slump. That bullish positioning has been “the largest bearish cross in my scorecards for the last several weeks,” said Torbjorn Kjus, chief oil analyst at DNB Bank ASA. What’s difficult is that “we don’t know the type of players. If they want to have a larger part of their assets in commodities for the next couple of years, then they’re not going to sell those positions.”
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Copyright © 2015
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 14 NewBase Special Coverage News Agencies News Release December 28-2017 RENEWABLE ENERGY RISES ACROSS ASIA http://www.irena.org/IRENADocuments/quarterly2017/IRENA_Quarterly_2017_Q4.pdf#page=5 Much of the world’s energy transformation will hinge on the continent’s fast-growing markets. The world’s largest continent is where renewable energy use is expanding fastest. It is where renewables have the most room to grow, along with driving development. Asia is also is where they can most decisively help to curb carbon emissions and mitigate climate change. China’s rise as a renewable energy powerhouse is indisputable. Others like Southeast Asia’s “Tiger cub economies” (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand) are gaining valuable experience in the sector. Central Asian countries have recognised the value of renewables to spur future growth. India, meanwhile, has started turning to renewables to meet its mushrooming energy demand sustainably. Of the estimated 1.2 billion people who today lack access to modern energy services, more than 95% live in developing countries either in Asia or sub-Saharan Africa. Any way you look at it, Asia is a key factor in the world’s pursuit of a sustainable energy future. This edition of the IRENA Quarterly Newsletter explores the exciting challenges and opportunities in some of Asia’s emerging renewable energy markets. ASEAN countries rally behind energy transformation By 2025, the ten countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will face a surging electricity demand, which is expected to double, and a 50% increase in the overall energy demand. To meet this demand some countries are planning to turn to their old energy standby, coal. Much of the other increases are planned to come from natural gas and oil, most of it imported. However, this approach is starting to be questioned by policy makers and industry across the region. The combined population of the ASEAN region is forecast to increase from around 615 million in 2014 to 715 million by 2025.
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15 The economy will grow more than 5% per year on average, resulting in a rapid rise in energy demand. And in the future economic growth, urbanisation, electrification and population growth will ensure the relentless increase of energy demand for decades to come. Although renewables are gaining ground worldwide, the continued reliance on fossil fuels, including the dirtiest, coal, will lead to rising carbon dioxide emissions and increased levels of local air pollution. Dependence on fossil fuel will increase emissions by 60%, resulting in health and pollution costs reaching USD 225 billion annually by 2025, according to analysis by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and the ASEAN Centre for Energy. When considering these costs, renewable energy presents a more cost-effective option in pure economic terms. ASEAN member states are currently on track to source 17% of their combined total primary energy supply from renewables by 2025. To reach 23%, however, the region has to roll out more renewables without delay. In 2015, ASEAN ministers adopted an aspirational target of 23% renewable energy by 2025. This objective implies a two-and-a-half-fold increase in the region’s modern renewable energy share, compared to 2014. The total power generation would have to double by 2025 to match energy demand growth. Encouragingly, 62% of the world’s renewable energy jobs are in Asia, including the ASEAN countries. China is the dominant player, followed by India. The ASEAN countries have pursued a similar route, as renewable energy technology manufacturers. Asia is fast becoming the global centre for solar PV fabrication, with installation and manufacturing jobs continuing to move particularly to Malaysia and Thailand. “ASEAN Member States are endowed with some of the best renewable energy resources in the world,” said Adnan Z. Amin, IRENA’s Director-General. “Reaching the 23% target n the ASEAN region is not only
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16 feasible, but cheaper than the alternative. Doing so, however, will require more emphasis on renewables across all sectors, including heating, cooking and transport.” . A joint study from IRENA and the ASEAN Center for Energy indicates the status of renewables in each country and outlines options to accelerate deployment. The study aligns with the ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Co-operation 20162025. See Renewable Energy Outlook for ASEAN: A REmap Analysis. Thailand maximises policy impact by integrating energy plans Thailand, like many countries, increasingly relies on imported energy. Today around 60% of its energy comes from imports and with proven reserves of oil and gas anticipated to last no more than a decade, this share will rise. Increasing imports not only challenges security of supply, but also has significant implications for the overall energy expenditure of the country. The primary objective of the country’s national energy policies is centred on enhancing energy security by diversifying the energy mix. The country’s policies are also aimed at keeping energy prices affordable and reducing the negative effects of energy production and consumption on the environment and society. Therefore, Thailand has set energy security as a top policy objective, followed by economic affordability, and environmental sustainability. These plans are detailed in the Thailand Integrated Energy Blueprint. Policy makers are keenly aware of the country’s growing energy demand, all the while depleting domestic reserves of energy resources. The blueprint is underpinned by separate energy plans from the Power Development Plan, the Energy Efficiency Plan, the Alternative Energy Development Plan, the Oil Plan, and the Gas Plan. Moreover, the Government of Thailand has committed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20-25% by 2030. This will require action for decarbonisation of the energy sector. Thailand has set a new renewable energy target of 30% of total final energy consumption by 2036 in its 2015 Alternative Energy Development Plan. In 2015, the Thailand Integrated Energy Blueprint 2015-2036 was created through harmonising the five major energy plans into one integrated energy document
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17 At present, the blueprint serves de facto as the combined national energy policy and energy sector development plan. As there have been no updates to the official National Energy Policy since this blueprint. Thailand, like so many other countries, needs the right policy framework for effective use of renewables and needs to be able to react to the rapidly changing energy markets and the emerging low cost renewable power sources. The long-term perspective and system approach taken in the blueprint could potentially change the way that energy policy is implemented in Thailand. It could yield the desired results, but crucially needs both an effective mechanism for inter-ministerial co-ordination and an implementation monitoring system in place. The energy policy, along with the Alternative Energy Development Plan 2015, aims to increase the use of alternative energy sources, encourage energy technologies that are highly efficienct and scale up green alternatives among communities. Bioenergy remains the dominant renewable source in Thailand’s end-use sectors. While biofuels can be used for heat and transport, the Alternative Energy Development Plan also recognises the important and growing role that solar photovoltaic and wind can play in the country. Analysis shows that there is potential to replace traditional bioenergy with modern cook stoves and biogas digesters. That could reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels, such as liquefied petroleum gas, the current trend for replacing traditional bioenergy. Even by 2036 bioenergy will remain crucial for sectors of Thailand’s energy system such as in industry. To achieve the aims set out in the plan for bioenergy in a sustainable and efficient manner, better bioenergy accounting is needed. This can be achieved through a comprehensive review of the current supply and demand, including the scope of technologies covered and the ways in which data are collected, assembled, reported and analysed for renewable thermal energy.
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18 The government of Thailand is now aiming to increase the amount of renewable power from solar PV and wind, with 2036 targets of 3 gigawatts (GW) and 6 GW respectively. However, analysis shows that these targets could increase significantly, with twice as much wind and three times as much solar PV installed over the next two decades. Thailand is also exploring the use of electric vehicles as the demand for electricity in the transport sector could triple by 2036. The number of electric passenger vehicles on the road in Thailand by 2036 could total 1.5 million and electric two- and three-wheelers would total over 3.5 million. The development of a long-term strategic development plan for the transport sector, including vehicles, fuel types and the necessary infrastructure, would help provide an alternative to petroleum-derived transport fuels in Thailand. IRENA, in co-operation with the Ministry of Energy of Thailand, has conducted a combined Renewables Readiness Assessment (RRA) and REmap analysis of the country. The emerging contribution of bioenergy in Southeast Asia In Southeast Asia, the development of renewable energy has followed a distinctive path, with relatively little deployment of wind and solar so far. Still, countries in the region were early adopters of renewables, with significant use of geothermal energy and bioenergy for electricity generation. Thailand currently leads in the generation of electricity from bioenergy, with 15 terawatt-hours (TWh) generated in 2015 (equal to about 75% of all renewable generation in Thailand). Indonesia and Malaysia are two other major producers, with a combined 7.8 TWh of bioenergy generation in 2015. Due to a five-fold increase in generation since 2000, bioenergy has now become the second most important source of renewable electricity in the region and it may also be used extensively for industrial heat production. Renewable electricity generation in ASEAN countries between 2000 and 2015
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 19 However, its total contribution to heat and power production in Southeast Asia is probably under-reported for several reasons. Autoproduction: Many countries currently do not collect any information about the electricity produced by enterprises for their own use (autoproduction). IRENA’s statistics include some estimates of this and are, therefore, higher than the figures presented by many other agencies. Offgrid and small-scale bioenergy autoproduction, however, is probably missing from these estimates. Industrial heat and solid biofuel use: A second area where bioenergy consumption may be underreported is where it is used for industrial process heat. For a start, many of the countries reporting bioenergy generation do not report the fuel used or heat produced in the combined heat and power plants where most of this generation occurs. In addition even fewer countries report direct use of bioenergy (as fuel) in industry, although biomass processing residues are often used to generate process heat in locally important industries, such as wood and food processing. Biogas: The consumption of biogas is also expanding rapidly in the region, both as a clean cooking solution and as an alternative way of converting biomass wastes into energy. Some of this is captured in national statistics (e.g. if there is a national biogas programme), but most independent or small-scale projects are unlikely to be recorded. Bioenergy is expanding rapidly in Southeast Asia due to the availability of rural labour, welldeveloped transport systems and the strength of local wood and food processing industries. IRENA has prioritised off- grid bioenergy data collection in this region, to fill some of the data gaps mentioned. As work continues
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 20 with countries to check and improve upon these estimates, it is also expected that these figures will be revised upwards when new information becomes available. India tackles energy security As population and economic growth attracts people into cities, India’s urban population is set to grow from around 435 million in 2015 to nearly 600 million by 2030. Although fossil fuels are still the main source of energy supply in India, the sheer need to scale up power generation capacity has created important opportunities for renewable energy deployment. The World Bank has praised Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s commitment to renewables. Meeting the resulting electricity demand, which has grown annually by 10% over the past decade, and attaining the country’s ambitious economic growth targets, will require significant investments in power-generation capacity and associated infrastructure development. “Balancing economic growth and development, environmental protection, and energy security is a real challenge in India that can be tackled by enabling more renewable energy deployment,” says Dolf Gielen, Director of Innovation and Technology at IRENA. One of the greatest challenges will be to unlockIndia’s vast renewable energy potential, ensuring a clean and sustainable energy future,while enabling the country to fulfil its climate targets under the Paris Agreement. Widespread poverty, means India already struggles to cope with its existing energy demand. Estimates suggest 80 million households — roughly 300 million people — have limited or no access to electricity. Yet certain renewable energy solutions, including solar photovoltaic and off-grid or mini-grid systems powered by renewables have improved energy access for poor communities and bolstered energy security through diversified, and largely indigenous and locally available, sources of supply. Increasing renewable energy
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 21 deployment could save the Indian economy twelve times more than it would cost by 2030, according to a recent REmap country report for India. Moreover, scaling up renewables can create jobs, reduce carbon dioxide emissions, and ensure cleaner air and water, with also significant savings on health-related costs. Sufficient adoption of renewable energy technologies would lower the demand for coal and oil products by as much as 23% by 2030, compared to the existing plans and policies. To integrate higher shares of renewables, the country needs to strengthen its transmission grids, reduce grid losses, and improve the overall resilience of the power system by investing in various flexible technologies. Solar energy — both photovoltaic and thermal — will play a vital role. Solar could become the second largest renewable energy source at 16%, followed by wind at 14%, and hydropower at 7% of the country’s total final renewable energy use by 2030, according to IRENA’s REmap analysis. Various forms of biofuels — which can be used across the end demand spectrum, such as for transport, electricity and heat generation — would account for 62% of total final renewable energy use by 2030. Can the Philippines achieve energy independence? The Philippines is a net fossil energy importer and depends heavily on imports of oil for transport, and coal for power generation. While energy independence has been a dream the Philippines has been pursuing for decades, ensuring sustainable, reliable, secure, sufficient and accessible energy supply with indigenous sources is a daunting task. The Philippines offers great potential for geothermal, hydropower and ocean energy, and fairly good resources of solar and wind energy. Since 1977, the Philippines has made efforts to develop this resources using its position on the Pacific “Ring of Fire”. By 2015, the total installed geothermal electricity generation capacity reached about 1.9 gigawatts (GW), making the Philippines second only to the United States, according to the International Geothermal Association. The Philippines generates 14% of total national electricity output from renewables and saves a significant amount of its budget through avoided fuel imports. Moreover, the Philippines has accelerated the
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Copyright © 2015
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 22 pace of deployment of other renewable energy resources, driven by setting the renewable energy target at 15.3 GW by 2030, a three-fold increase on the current country level. The country is pursuing this aim through feed-in tariffs and other support schemes. The modular installations of, for instance, solar photovoltaic (PV) systems or small-scale biogas digesters suit the need for off-grid solutions, given there are still 4.2 million households without electricity and many of whom are in remote and small island regions. The potential for electrification through renewable-based mini- and micro-grid solutions are huge, if the challenges can be effectively addressed. The challenges, both technical and non-technical, pose a risk for developers. This relates to maintaining sustainably operating mini-grid systems, having the knowledge to handle battery storage, detecting malfunctions or under-performance in the solar PV systems and other issues. In part because of these concerns over technical challenges and tariff-related issues, the investors are reluctant to finance renewable energy minigrids. In the Philippines, this concern is exacerbated due to a lack of guidelines on how to set up tariffs applicable to off-grid systems. Significant variation in conditions between islands necessitate a variety of renewable energy policies, including different feed-in tariffs. This situation calls for more incentives for off-grid electrification, such as relaxing regulations applied to off-grid, giving room for developers and the local communities to determine a reasonable level for tariffs, while following guidelines set by Energy Regulatory Commission. Any benchmark tariff should include cost adjustments for site geography, size and technology. In addition, technologies should be allocated a differentiated tariff. With the advent of renewable energy hybrid applications, there is now a need to formulate tariffs for such situations and a need to develop a simplified tariff calculation.
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Copyright © 2015
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 23 NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE The Editor :”Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE. For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010 Mobile: +97150-4822502 khdmohd@hawkenergy.net khdmohd@hotmail.com Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 27 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE NewBase December 2017 K. Al Awadi
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 24
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 25
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