Johan Swinnen GLOBAL FOOD POLICY REPORT IFPRI’s 2023 Global Food Policy Report: Rethinking Food Crisis Responses – Considerations for Africa IFPRI Africa Regional Office JUN 22, 2023 - 9:00 TO 10:30AM EDT

1. Johan Swinnen
International Food Policy Research Institute
Africa Region, June 2023
The Road to Resilience
Rethinking Responses to Food Crises

2. From June 2013 …

3. From June 2013 …
Towards the end
of hunger … ?
13
7.8
796
572
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Millions
Percentage
Prevalence of undernourishment (percent)
Number of people undernourished (million)

4. From June 2013 …
Towards the end
of hunger … ?
13
7.8
8
9.8
796
572 618
768
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Millions
Percentage
Prevalence of undernourishment (percent)
Number of people undernourished (million)

5. Vulnerability of food systems :
Compounding crises, shocks, and structural setbacks
Source: FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, and WHO, The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the
World 2022, (Rome: FAO, 2022).
13
7.8
8
9.8
796
572 618
768
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Millions
Percentage
Prevalence and number of
undernourished worldwide, 2000–2021
Prevalence of undernourishment (percent)
Number of people undernourished (million)
Price volatility 2000-2022
Source: Heady et al 2021

6.  More frequent, complex, and
protracted crises likely
 Climate change a looming danger
 Up to 21% reduction in agricultural productivity
growth since 1961
 Contributor of food crises for >20 million people
in 2021
 Compounding crises: conflict, climate
change, and economic shocks
 For example: Syria, Afghanistan, and South
Sudan
Climate, Conflict, Covid, and Food Security
0
50
100
150
200
250
1900
1906
1913
1918
1923
1928
1933
1938
1943
1948
1953
1958
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
2013
2018
Trends in extreme weather events,
droughts, and floods, 1900–2022
Extreme weather events Drought Flood
Source: https://emdat.be/

7.  Forced migrants
 ~103 million people forcibly displaced in 2022
 80% experienced acute food insecurity
 Low- and middle-income countries
 especially vulnerable
 limited resources for crisis response
 Women
 Impacts to women’s dietary diversity, decision-
making power, assets, health, and physical safety
 Setback of gender equality goals by 30 years
Food crises impact some more heavily than others
103
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Millions
Forcibly Displaced People
Source: UNHCR (2023).
Note: Includes internally displaced people and refugees.

8. 2023 GFPR: A timely contribution
 Calls for more effective crisis responses
not new, but increasingly urgent
 Cutting-edge analysis from IFPRI and
partners about recent crises and their
impacts on food security, nutrition, poverty,
and livelihoods
 Concrete strategies for crisis response
 Regionally differentiated approaches

9. Key Action Areas
1.The Road to Resilience: Rethinking Responses to Food Crises
2. Food Crisis Risk Monitoring: Early Warning for Early Action
3. Crisis Resilience: Humanitarian Response and Anticipatory
Action
4. Agrifood Value Chains: Building Resilient Food Systems
5. Social Protection: Adaptive Safety Nets for Crisis Recovery
6. Gender: Promoting Equality in Fragile and Conflict-Affected
Settings
7. Forced Migration: Fragility, Resilience, and Policy Responses
(+ Six Regional Chapters)

10.  Early-warning, early-action (EWEA) systems
 Systems must better address complexity of crises
 Filling M&E gaps is critical
 Integrating existing systems can ensure that policymakers
receive clear, timely, and actionable warning signals
 Anticipatory action frameworks
 Require monitoring data that illuminate risks, exposure, and
vulnerability
 Can mitigate crises at lower cost and support longer-term
development efforts
 Robust governance and improved targeting raise efficacy
Recommendations (1)

11.  Resilient agrifood value chains
 Businesses should invest in improved and innovative tools
like climate-smart agriculture and new forms of insurance
 Governments should create a business environment that
fosters value chain innovations
 Data can be used to target assistance to crucial value
chain nodes
 Responsive social protection systems
 Governments need highly adaptive, flexible, and inclusive
social protection systems
 Integrate “shock responsive” social protection with EWEA
and humanitarian aid for greater coherence
 Explore new ways to cover costs (e.g., climate or green
financing) and reduce costs (e.g., using mobile payments)
Recommendations (2)

12.  Empowering women amid crisis
 Improve the quality of gender-disaggregated data collected
before and during crises
 Creating explicit gender targets in crisis response and track
them
 Increase women’s political participation and amplify their
voice and agency in their communities
 Responding to forced migration
 Governments should invest in infrastructure and design
policies that expand the benefits of migration
 Innovative data collection can be used to better understand
and address the root causes of forced migration
Recommendations (3)

13. Chapter 1: Johan Swinnen and Katrina
Kosec
Chapter 2: Rob Vos, Arif Husain,
Friederike Greb, Peter Läderach, and
Brendan Rice
Chapter 3: Sikandra Kurdi and Sandra
Ruckstuhl
Chapter 4: Bart Minten, Ben Belton, and
Thomas Reardon
Chapter 5: Kalle Hirvonen
Chapter 6: Hazel Malapit and Lynn
Brown
Chapter 7: Manuel Hernandez, Olivier
Ecker, Peter Läderach, and Jean-
François Maystadt
Thanks to our authors
Africa: Samuel Benin, Wim Marivoet,
Harriet Mawia, and John Ulimwengu
Middle East and North Africa: Kibrom
Abay, Xinshen Diao, David Laborde, and
Mariam Raouf
Central Asia: Kamiljon Akramov
South Asia: Anjani Kumar and Shahidur
Rashid
East and Southeast Asia: Kevin Chen,
Yunyi Zhou, and Rui Mao
Latin America and the Caribbean:
Eugenio Diaz-Bonilla, and Valeria Piñeiro

14. Thank you for your attention

15. Appendix

16.  Calls for more effective crisis responses not new,
but increasingly urgent
 Evidence-based tools, policy models, and
approaches at hand
 Must align humanitarian aid with medium- and
long-term development strategies and with
resilience building, reflecting a humanitarian –
development – peace (HDP) nexus approach
 Cornerstones of effective responses:
 Effective governance and coordination
 Sufficient and flexible funding
Charting a new path for
addressing crises

17.  Effective governance is critical for sustainable and
responsive action
 Central to effective deployment and sustaining of anticipatory action,
humanitarian assistance, social protection, and other programs
 Can promote market stability and innovation in the private sector
 Contributes to trust and social cohesion, thwarting future conflicts
 Coordination is critical
 International – national – local
 Public – private – civil society
 Global south – global north
 Policy forums can help build consensus
 Action must be grounded in evidence
Cornerstone #1: Effective governance and
coordination

18.  Need for crisis response funding has increased
 Investment in resilience and anticipatory action can
reduce future costs of humanitarian response
 Funding options
 Repurposing US$800 billion in government agricultural supports
 Shifting public and private investment toward crisis prevention and
resilience through changing allocations and incentives
 De-risk investment in resilience with blended finance
Cornerstone #2: Sufficient and flexible funding
US$ 24 billion
US$ 52
Billion
Funding received in
2022
Funding requested in
2023
Rapid increase in humanitarian
funding needs
Source: Humanitarian Action, “At a Glance” (2022).
Note: Amounts of funding received and requested by UN Office
for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs