Presented by Agus Purnomo (DNPI) on ICCC Coffee Morning on Climate Change series Leadership & Engagement in Conservation & Sustainable Development of the Future of Indonesia, June 5, 2014 at DNPI office

1. Leadership and Engagement on
Actions to Reduce GHG Emissions
from Land Use and Forestry sources
Agus Purnomo
Head of Secretariat of DNPI and President SBY’s Special Assistant on Climate Change
June 2014

2. CONTENT
1
Update on LULUCF and peat emissions
2030 GHG emission outlook
Emission abatement opportunities
Abatement options analysis

3. GHG Cost Curve report published in 2009 suggests that Indonesia’s
emissions from LULUCF and peat will remain constant at 1.6 Gt CO2e
Projected emissions from LULUCF and peat sectors
MtCO2e/year
-356 -416
1,084 1,084 1,084
772 902 972
-246
2020
1,630
2005
1,610
LULUCF
2030
1,640
Peat
Absorption
SOURCE: Indonesia GHG Abatement Cost Curve – 2
UPDATE ON BUSINESS-AS-USUAL FIGURES

4. Much new research and reports have been published since the GHG
Cost Curve report was released in 2009
– 3
The Government of Indonesia issued
several reports related to climate
change…
…while national and international publications have been
advancing the methodology for carbon calculations
SOURCE: Ministry of Forestry; Ministry of Environment; BAPPENAS; UKP4; DNPI; Journals and publications; Team analysis
UPDATE ON BUSINESS-AS-USUAL FIGURES

5. The differences in BAU and the updated emissions outlook are due to
differences in carbon stock above ground and emission factors
4
LULUCF
Peat
Absorption
1,084
1,084
1,084 923
923
923
2014 emission update
2009 BAU
972
902
772
1,038
964
822
-416
-356
-246
-402
-362
-277
2020 2030
2005
Lower carbon
stock above
ground
Higher emission
factor on
degraded peat
Lower
sequestration
rate in timber
plantation and
reforested area
SOURCE: Ministry of Forestry; Ministry of Agriculture; RAN-GRK; Journal of Tropical Forest Science; Team analysis

6. Indonesia’s deforestation shows a declining trend since 1996
5
Annual deforestation rate, 1992 - 20131
In million hectares
SOURCE: Ministry of Forestry land cover maps; Team analysis
UPDATE ON LULUCF AND PEAT EMISSIONS – CARBON STOCK ABOVE GROUND
Between
2009-13
0.6
Between
2006-09
0.8
Between
2003-06
1.0
Between
2000-03
0.4
Between
1996-2000
4.1
Between
1992-96
2.2
1 Only spatial map in 1992, 1996, 2000, 2003, 2006, 2009, and 2013 available; the deforestation rate is assumed constant in between
the two data points available

7. Indonesia’s deforestation shows a declining trend has since 1996
6
UPDATE ON LULUCF AND PEAT EMISSIONS – CARBON STOCK ABOVE GROUND
Deforested area Forest area
1992 –
1996
deforest
ation
1992 –
2000
deforest
ation
1992 –
2003
deforest
ation
1992 –
2006
deforest
ation
1992 –
2009
deforest
ation
1992 –
2013
deforest
ation
SOURCE: Ministry of Forestry land cover maps; Team analysis

8. CONTENT
7
Update on LULUCF and peat emissions
2030 GHG emission outlook
Emission abatement opportunities
Abatement options analysis

9. The current emission level and outlook are developed using improved
methodology
– 8
BAU approach Current emission level approach
Deforesta-
tion
Top-down calculation using constant
deforestation and average carbon
stock
Bottom-up spatial analysis combined
with carbon stock for each land cover
Forest
degradation
Top-down calculation with constant
timber extraction rate and average
carbon stock loss
Declining degradation area based on
license expiry date and 40% carbon
loss
Peat
decompo-
sition
Simple multiplication of deforested
area with average emission factor
Bottom-up spatial analysis combined
with emission factor for each land
cover
Peat fire
Taken from van der Werf publication
and projected by leveraging
degraded area in peatland
Simple multiplication of average
hotspot and emission per hotspot
Absorption
Combined sequestration from natural
forest, timber plantation, estate crops
and afforestation (GERHAN project)
Only sequestration from natural
secondary forest and afforestation
included; timber plantation and estate
crops are considered carbon-neutral
SOURCE: Indonesia GHG Abatement Cost Curve; Team analysis
2030 GHG EMISSION OUTLOOK
1
2
3
4
5

10. Applying new emission factors in 2009 BAU slightly changed the BAU
9
-277 -362 -402
923 923 923
822 964 1,038 Peat
Absorption
LULUCF
2030
1,559
2020
1,525
2005
1,468
SOURCE: Team analysis; Ministry of Forestry; Ministry of Agriculture; RAN GRK; Journals and publications
Projected emissions from LULUCF and peat sectors
MtCO2e/year

11. CONTENT
10
Abatement options analysis
2030 GHG emission outlook
Emission abatement opportunities
Update on LULUCF and peat emissions

12. Land cover change analysis shows that more than 50% of deforestation
is results in degraded land
11
10%
Others
Settlement
Shrubland
53% 0%
Plantation forest
9%
Mining
1%
Estate crops
13%
Agriculture
15%
§ 53% of deforested
area is converted into
shrub, which does not
give significant impact
to economic
development
§ The degraded areas
should be made
available for green
development and
community
development programs
Forest cover change to other land cover, 2000-09
SOURCE: Ministry of Forestry; Team analysis
Total area = 6.5 million ha
UPDATE ON LULUCF AND PEAT EMISSIONS – CARBON STOCK ABOVE GROUND

13. We estimate 11.5 – 13.5 mn ha land is at immediate risk of planned
deforestation and forest degradation
Steep slope
<100 km
from coast
line
Moderate/plain slope
100-200 km
from coast
line
>200 km
from coast
line
Forest
Non-Forest
Indonesia
Under con-
cession 51
No con-
cession 139
Moratorium 61
Not under
moratorium 78
APL
HP &
HPT
HPK
Protected
area
APL
HP &
HPT
HPK
Protected
area
0 0
1.6
5.5
58.0
In million hectares
1 Assuming land with steep slope >30% is not feasible for any economic activities
2 Assuming land that lies >200 km from coast line is not feasible for any economic activities due to high transport cost
Area at risk
3.8 0.3
SOURCE: Ministry of Forestry 2009; WRI 2010; Team analysis 12
2.2 0.4
5.5 1.1
UPDATE ON LULUCF AND PEAT EMISSIONS – CARBON STOCK ABOVE GROUND

14. We estimate 13 million ha forests are at risk of planned deforestation
and forest degradation
13
SOURCE: Ministry of Forestry 2009; WRI 2010; Team analysis
UPDATE ON LULUCF AND PEAT EMISSIONS – CARBON STOCK ABOVE GROUND

15. We estimate ~13.4 mn ha land is at immediate risk of planned
deforestation and forest degradation
1 Assuming land with steep slope >30% is not feasible for any economic activities
2 Assuming land that lies >200 km from coast line is not feasible for any economic activities due to high transport cost
SOURCE: Ministry of Forestry land cover map 2009; WRI 2010; Team analysis 14
UPDATE ON LULUCF AND PEAT EMISSIONS – CARBON STOCK ABOVE GROUND
13.4
17.9
66.3
95.5
48.4
29.2
Economically
attractive1,2
Economically
not
attractive1,2
4.5
Outside
moratorium
Moratorium
area
No
concessions
Under
concessions
Indonesia’s
forested area
Breakdown of Indonesia’s forested area
In million hectares
Area at risk of planned
deforestation and forest
degradation

16. Indonesia currently stores ~60 gigatons of carbon, of which 60% is in
peatlands
Land mapping based on carbon density Indonesia’s calculated carbon stock
SOURCE: Ministry of Forestry; Ministry of Agriculture; Wetlands International; Team analysis
24 26
24
Mineral
2
34
Peat
60
Below ground
36
34
Above ground
Total
40
60
15
Carbon stock, Gigaton carbon
Share of
carbon stock
(percent)
91
9
Share of area
(percent)
UPDATE ON LULUCF AND PEAT EMISSIONS
Share of total, Percent
XX

17. Peat soil distribution
~40% of Indonesia’s peatland area is assigned as APL and HPK, which
puts ~6 mn ha under threat of conversion
16
14.9
4.2
3.0
2.4
HP HPK Total
3.5
HPT
1.8
Protected area APL
Peat area, million hectares
20 12 28 16 23
SOURCE: Ministry of Agriculture peatland map; Ministry of Forestry land use map; Team analysis
UPDATE ON LULUCF AND PEAT EMISSIONS – CARBON STOCK BELOW GROUND
Under threat of
conversion
Under threat of
degradation
Under threat of degradation
Under threat of conversion
Share of total, Percent
XX

18. Current moratorium protects ~4.8 mn ha of peat from being converted
into land-use related activities
17
Peat soil
Morato-
rium 7.8
Outside
morato-
rium
7.1
0.9
APL
1.4
HPK
0.9
HP
1.7
HPT
Protected
area
3.0
Total
7.8
APL
2.6
HPK
0.8
HP
2.8
HPT
0.9
Protected
area
0.0
Total
7.1
Peat area protected from
further conversion
SOURCE: Ministry of Forestry land use map; Ministry of Agriculture peatland map; Team analysis
In million hectares
UPDATE ON MORATORIUM – CARBON STOCK BELOW GROUND
Total area = 4.8 million hectares

19. Current moratorium protects ~4.8 mn ha of peat from being converted
into land-use related activities
18
UPDATE ON MORATORIUM – CARBON STOCK BELOW GROUND
Peatland outside Moratorium
Peatland within Protected Area inside Moratorium
HP, HPT, HPK, APL inside Moratorium
SOURCE: Ministry of Forestry land use map; Ministry of Agriculture peatland map; Team analysis

20. Half of the peatlands are already degraded
19
UPDATE ON LULUCF AND PEAT EMISSIONS – CARBON STOCK BELOW GROUND
Land cover in peat soils
Peat area, million hectares
Primary forest
14.9
4.6
3.0
5.5
0.3
1.6
Secondary
forest
Forest
plantation
Estate crops
Others
Total peat area
Degraded
Primary forest
Total
Secondary forest
37 11 2 31
Total area = 7.4 million hectares
Share of total, Percent
XX
20
SOURCE: Ministry of Agriculture peatland map; Ministry of Forestry land cover map; Team analysis

21. Half of the peatlands are already degraded
20
UPDATE ON LULUCF AND PEAT EMISSIONS – CARBON STOCK BELOW GROUND
Degraded
Primary Forest
Secondary Forest
SOURCE: Ministry of Agriculture peatland map; Ministry of Forestry land cover map; Team analysis

22. CONTENT
21
Update on LULUCF and peat emissions
2030 GHG emission outlook
Emission abatement opportunities
Abatement options analysis

23. Note: The curve presents an estimate of the maximum potential of all technical GHG abatement measures below EUR 60 per tCO2e if each
lever was pursued aggressively. It is not a forecast of what role different abatement measures and technologies will play. Assuming a 4%
societal discount rate
40 420
400
380
360
340
20
5
60 80 100 120
35
0 320
220
140 280
180 260
200
160
30
25
460 480 500 520 540 560
0
240
10
15
20
40
45
50
440
300
0
0 - 5
Abatement cost
USD per tCO2e
5
0
10
3
0
10 - 15
0 - 3
Abatement potential
MtCO2e per year
5
5 - 10
0 - 5 5
5
5
0
0 - 5
5
548 MtCO2e could be abated in 2030 by implementation of 6 different
abatement levers
Forest and peat
moratorium
Afforestation /
reforestation
Peat
management
Societal perspective; 2030
Sustainable logging
practice
Improve
community
practices
Spatial planning
and land use
optimization
High estimate Low estimate
SOURCE: Team analysis
EMISSION ABATEMENT OPPORTUNITIES

24. Six abatement opportunities should be prioritized
23
Spatial planning and land
use optimization
Classify high-carbon forest and
peatland into conservation area,
and subsequently release low-
carbon stock area for economic
activities
1
Reduce forest degradation through
RIL and enrichment planting
practices, and reduce the need for
plantation expansion through yield
improvement
Sustainable logging
practices
4
Peatland management
Slow the emission from degraded
peatlands by re-wetting or re-
planting damaged areas and by
establishing a fire management
system
3 Afforestation and
reforestation
Conduct reforestation in less-
attractive areas for long-term,
permanent carbon sink
6
Improvement in local
community practices
Reduce slash&burn by providing
land tenure, livelihood training,
education and awareness, and
disincentives for forest clearance
5
Extend forest and peat
moratorium to indefinite time to
protect HCV areas
Forest and peat moratorium
2

25. 24
Leadership & engagement factors in six abatement opportunities
24
Spatial planning and land
use optimization
Consolidation of spatial plan and
land management authorities.
Redefining tasks/responsibilities
of ministries & local governments.
A priority for the first 100 days
1
Reduced impact logging (RIL) &
enrichment planting practices is
an issue of engaging local
communities and private sector
Sustainable logging
practices
4
Peatland management
Creating incentives for efforts to
rewet & replant damaged areas
and prevent fires/haze. Science
based policies with incentives
system and law enforcement
3 Afforestation and
reforestation
Continuing one billion trees
planting program, another simple
program. Although it requires
political leadership in setting up
long-term targets
6
Improvement in local
community practices
Provision of land tenure,
alternative livelihood training,
and disincentives for forest
clearance. Political leadership
5
Extending forest/peat moratorium
is within the authority of the
President. Simple leadership
Forest and peat moratorium
2

26. Forest Cover 2013
25
Deforested area,
1992 - 2013
Forest area 2013
SOURCE: Ministry of Forestry; Team analysis
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