Jón Geir Pétursson, Director General at Ministry for the Environment and Natural Resources & Aðalsteinn Sigurgeirsson, Director at Icelandic Forest Research Nordic Agriculture facing Climate Change, workshop 28.6.2016 www.mmm.fi/norden2016

1. Jón Geir Pétursson & Aðalsteinn Sigurgeirsson
ICELAND‘S POLICY AND ACTION PLAN
ON CLIMATE CHANGE
With a Specific Focus on Agriculture and
Land use/land use change/forestry
Nordic Agriculture facing Climate Change”, Turku, Finland 28. June 2016

2. 1) Iceland’s Climate Profile
2) Multilateral Climate Commitments
3) General Climate Policy
4) 2010 Action Plan on Climate Mitigation
5) Emissions
6) New CC Action plan and agriculture
7) Afforestation as a climate mitigation activity in Iceland
Photos from Hugi Ólafsson

3. Iceland’s GHG emissions profile
• Small population (325,000) and overall
emissions (4.5 m tons); 14 tons per capita
• Unusual emissions profile (industrial
processes and transport biggest sectors)
• Highest share of renewables in OECD:
85% of total energy use; 100% of
stationary energy production (electricity
and space heating)
• Abundant renewable energy sources
(hydro, geothermal)
• Abundant carbon sequestration
opportunities (afforestation, revegetation)
Photo: Hugi Ólafsson

4. GHG emissions in 2010
– share of sectors
Iceland EU-15

5. Iceland = 4.5 m tons CO2 eq. Scholven power plant (Gelsenkirchen,
Germany) = 9.4 m tons CO2
Absolute emissions = 0.01% of global emissions = 0.1% of EU-28 emissions

6. De-carbonization of energy production:
- Energy production = 4,6% of total emissions (CO2 from geothermal)
- Use and share of renewables (hydro and geothermal has increased greatly
CO2 emissions
(thousands of
tons/year)
from energy
production in
Reykjavík

7. International Commitments
• UNFCCC cornerstone of climate policy
• Iceland is part of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS), as a
part of the EEA Agreement; starting in 2012
• 11 Icelandic entities under the EU-ETS (heavy industry, aviation, fish
meal production); 40% of Iceland’s emissions
• Rules and targets for Icelandic industry and sectors comparable to
that of other European countries (EU, Norway, Switzerland)
• Paris: Iceland is committed to take part in joint efforts with the
European Union (EU) and Norway to reduce greenhouse-gas
emissions by 40% by 2030 (as compared to 1990 levels).

8. • Iceland will fulfil its international obligations according to the
UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol.
• Greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced, with a special
emphasis on reducing the use of fossil fuels in favour of renewable
energy sources and climate-friendly fuels.
• The government will attempt to increase carbon sequestration
from the atmosphere through afforestation, revegetation, wetland
reclamation, and changed land use.
• Long-term aspirational goal: 50-75% net emissions cuts to 2050
• The government will support research and innovation in climate
mitigation and will promote transfer of Icelandic expertise in
renewable energy and climate-friendly technology.
• The government will prepare for adaptation to climate change.
Government 2007 Climate Strategy

9. 2010 Action Plan
• Action Plan takes account of 2007 Strategy and likely
international commitments; builds on 2009 expert study
on mitigation potential and cost
• Ten “key actions” to cut net emissions, so that they
will be 1.2-1.7 million tons less than in a
„Business-as-usual“ scenario in 2020
• Key actions should ensure that Iceland can honour
its post-2012 commitments in the period up to 2020
• High mitigation potential in LULUCF: afforestation
and revegetationvegetation
• Significant mitigation potential in transport and fisheries
• Heavy industry must acquire emission permits after 2012
• Net emissions in non-ETS sectors should decrease appr.
30% from 2005 to 2020

10. 1. Application of EU-ETS to relevant sectors
2. Carbon tax
3. Change in taxes and fees for cars and fuels
4. Official procurement of low-carbon and fuel efficient vehicles
5. Increased share of public transport, walking and bicycling in transport
6. Biofuels for the fishing fleet
7. Electrification of fish-meal production (currently using heavy oil)
8. Increased afforestation and revegetation
9. Restoration of drained wetlands
10.Increased R&D in climate-friendly technology
- Total: 1330-1570 Gg less net emissions per year by 2020 than in Business-as-usual
Ten Key Actions

11. Trends in
emissions

12. • The Icelandic government has announced a new sixteen-point plan
for reducing greenhouse-gas emissions and tackling climate
change.
• The plan was presented in the run-up to COP21, UNFCCC climate
conference in Paris.
New Climate Change Action Plan
(Sóknaráætlun í loftslagsmálum)

13. • Divided into three sections
• The first deals with reducing overall emissions in Iceland –
generated by transport, fisheries, agriculture and land use.
• The second section on bolstering international cooperation and
assisting other countries in reducing emissions.
• Thirdly, the plan addresses the issue of improving infrastructure in
Iceland, involving better data and forecasts, awareness-raising on
the issue of climate change, and closer monitoring of the country’s
glaciers.
The new CC mitigation action plan

14. Main focus is on following initiatives:
1. Marine sector: Mitigation roadmap
2. Agricultural sector: Mitigation roadmap
3. Increased carbon sequestration in forestry and land reclamation
4. Enter Wetland restoration program
5. Minimize Food waste
Agriculture and food related focal actions

15. Icelanders are self-sufficient in all major livestock products, such as
meat, milk, and eggs.
Traditional livestock production is grassland based and most farm
animals are native breeds, i.e. dairy cattle, sheep, horses, and goats,
which are all of an ancient Nordic origin. These animals are generally
smaller than the breeds common elsewhere in Europe. Beef production,
however, is partly through imported breeds, as is most poultry and all
pork production.
There is not much arable crop production in Iceland, due to a cold
climate and short growing season.
Cropland in Iceland consists mainly of cultivated hayfields, but potatoes,
barley, beets, and carrots are grown on limited acreage.
Agriculture and climate change -
Background
Source: Iceland, CC. Nat. Inv. Report 2015

16. • Total methane emissions from agriculture amounted to 12.61 Gg in
2013; total nitrous oxide emissions to 0.89Gg. Thus combined CH4
and N2O emissions amounted to 648 Gg CO2-eq. in 2013.
• Aggregated agriculture emissions were 779.53 Gg CO2-eq. in 1990.
The 17% decrease is mainly due to a decrease in sheep livestock
population, reducing methane emissions from enteric fermentation
and reduced fertilizer application reducing N2O emissions from
agricultural soils. 88% of CH4 emissions were caused by enteric
fermentation, the rest by manure management. 77% of N2O
emissions were caused by agricultural soils, the rest by manure
management, i.e. storage of manure.
Agricultural emissions
Source: Iceland, CC. Nat. Inv. Report 2015

17. During the period 2002 – 2013, satellite data from NASA (NDVI)
suggest no change or reduced vigor of vegetation on most of the land
area, despite warming during the period.
Exceptions: afforested areas and Nootka lupin fields (green on map).
Raynolds et al. 2015. Remote Sens. 7(8), 9492-9506

18. „Iceland is a
doomsday scenario
for the rest of the
world“ (Andrés Arnalds,
Icel. Soil Conservation
Service on BBC, 2005)
Photo: Christof Wöll
Photo: Christof Wöll
Photo: Christof Wöll
Photo: Aðalsteinn Sigurgeirsson

19. New mitigation roadmap for agriculture
Source: Iceland, CC. Nat. Inv. Report 2015
• Agricultural data is at
present not of
adequate quality
• The aim is to carry
out a reliable analysis
of the main GHG-
emission sources and
sinks in Icelandic
agriculture.
• Information gained
will be used as a
roadmap to propose
mechanisms of
reducing emissions
from agriculture.

20. Afforestation and its potential for CC mitigation
• Iceland is the least forested of all the Nordic (and European)
countries (save Faroe Islands and Greenland).
• At settlement (in 9th century) Iceland was „wooded between
the mountains and the seashore“ (source: Ari „the wise“
Thorgilsson, 13th century historian).
• The difference (25-40% down to 0.5-1.9%) can be explained
by „land-use change“ since settlement.
• Iceland‘s lack of forests is not because the country is „too
cold“.

21. 0.5% has „forest“ (by FAO
definition.
1.9% has woody
vegetation.

22. Icelandic Forest Research, before and after
afforestation
1967
20141967
Photo: Aðalsteinn Sigurgeirsson

23. -10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
Lífmassi Dautt lífrænt efni Brúnjörð Mójörð Samtals
kílótonnCO2
Frá 1990
Allir skógar
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Lífmassi Dautt lífrænt
efni
Brúnjörð Mójörð Samtals
kílótonnCO2
Frá 1990
Allir skógar
Sequestration
of CO2 in
2012:
268 kt CO2
CO2 emissions
from
automobiles:
782 kt CO2
Cultivated forest
Seminatural (birch) woodlands
Source: Arnór Snorraso, Icel. Forest Inventory
biomass
Dead
organic
matter
soil Total
All
forestland
As of 1990

24. Iceland
• Net-C-sequestration in Icelandic forests amounts
0,3 million tons/an.
• Net anthropogenic GHG emissions were (in 2014)
3,5-16,5 million tons CO2-eq. (depending on how
emission from drained wetlands are factored in or
out).
• Thus, the Icelandic forest sink annually sequesters
2 - 8% of net GHG emissions.
• Emissions per capita: 10,5 to 49,5 tons / an.
• Forest cover 0,5 / 1,35 / 1,9% af the total area of
Iceland (depending on how one chooses to define
‘forestland’).
Meginheimild: Þjóðarskýrsla Íslands um losun gróðurhúsaloftegun

25. Rannsóknastöð
skógræktar
Birch limit: 7,6°C
Potential distribution of birch woodlands in Iceland (green)
in 2015, with 1.5°C warming from 2008.
Total potential woodland area: 8.900.000 ha

26. THANK YOU!
Thank you for your attention.
Photo: Páll Ingþór Kristinsson