Carbon Forecasting in Forest Research | Paul Henshall

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Carbon Forecasting in Forest Research | Paul Henshall

  1. 1. Carbon Forecasting in Forest ResearchPaul Henshall
  2. 2. CSORT model• What is C-Sort? • Stand-level carbon accounting • Inputs: • Stand management/growth • Product Extraction and allocation • Decay rates (debris and products) • Processing emissions
  3. 3. CSORT outputs and documentation• Outputs • Carbon – live, dead, extracted, Products • Soil carbon • Management emissions• Further information • Understanding the carbon and greenhouse gas balance of forests in Britain (Integrated Forest Carbon Review) http://www.forestry.gov.uk/fr/INFD-7KHELL • Carbon impacts of using biomass in bioenergy and other sectors: forests https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachme
  4. 4. Stand and forest GHG dynamics Application of CSORT
  5. 5. Avoiding negative carbon impacts
  6. 6. CARBINE• Country, region or estate level carbon forecasting/accounting• Inputs: • Yearly area planted by • Species (e.g. Oak) • Management (Thin/No Thin, Fell/No Fell) • Yield Class • Future new planting assumptions (same info) • Deforestation rate for each year • Soil
  7. 7. CARBINE outputs• Volume forecast• Carbon accounting • Soil carbon • Harvested wood products • Displaced fossil fuel emissions • Energy Sector • Construction sector• Separate effects due to: • Forest Management • Afforestation (post 1990) • Deforestation (post 1990)
  8. 8. Forest data
  9. 9. FR data fusion Forestry Commission ‘Maximum likelihood’ approach Age-class National Inventory of structure Woodland and Trees (NIWT, updated for base year of 2000)Species Age class CARBINE output files structure CARBINE input files Pre-1920 woodland Data fusion process CARBINE ForestryForestry Commission Commission planting statistics timber production Woodland creation statistics post 1920Forestry Commission Management Sub-Compartment cross-check database Forecast of productionYield class Management
  10. 10. Wales CARBINE projections 2 1 0Net sink/source (-/+) MtCO -1 -2 -3 -4 Low -5 Mid -6 High -7 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year 0.4 2 0.2Net sink/source (-/+) MtCO 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 HWP Low -0.8 HWP Mid HWP High -1 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year
  11. 11. International climate negotiations • We applied the CARBINE model to a range of countries to support the efforts of UK and EU negotiators at Copenhagen, Cancun and Durban. • This resulted in important international agreements on forestry at Durban. 100 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050yr -1 ) 2 -100 D-P A-P F-PRemovals/emissions (-/+) (MtCO NET-P -200 D-R A-R F-R NET-R -300 -400 -500 Year
  12. 12. Development• More management scenarios• Represent disturbance – fire/wind/disease• Dynamic wood utilisation options
  13. 13. The end• Questions & Answers

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