This document discusses two forest carbon modeling tools: 1) CSORT, a stand-level model that accounts for carbon in live biomass, dead material, extracted products, and soil under different management scenarios. 2) CARBINE, a larger-scale model that forecasts carbon stocks and fluxes at regional to national scales based on inputs like planting, yield, and harvest statistics. It accounts for impacts of afforestation, deforestation, forest management, and harvested wood products. The document describes applications of CARBINE to support climate negotiations by projecting the carbon impacts of forestry policies in different countries. Ongoing work aims to improve both models by adding disturbances and dynamic utilization options.

1. Carbon Forecasting in Forest Research
Paul Henshall

2. CSORT model
• What is C-Sort?
• Stand-level carbon accounting
• Inputs:
• Stand management/growth
• Product Extraction and allocation
• Decay rates (debris and products)
• Processing emissions

3. CSORT outputs and documentation
• Outputs
• Carbon – live, dead, extracted, Products
• Soil carbon
• Management emissions
• Further information
• Understanding the carbon and greenhouse gas balance of
forests in Britain
(Integrated Forest Carbon Review)
http://www.forestry.gov.uk/fr/INFD-7KHELL
• Carbon impacts of using biomass in bioenergy and other
sectors: forests
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachme

4. Stand and forest GHG dynamics
Application
of CSORT

5. Avoiding negative carbon impacts

6. CARBINE
• Country, region or estate level carbon
forecasting/accounting
• Inputs:
• Yearly area planted by
• Species (e.g. Oak)
• Management (Thin/No Thin, Fell/No Fell)
• Yield Class
• Future new planting assumptions (same info)
• Deforestation rate for each year
• Soil

7. CARBINE outputs
• Volume forecast
• Carbon accounting
• Soil carbon
• Harvested wood products
• Displaced fossil fuel emissions
• Energy Sector
• Construction sector
• Separate effects due to:
• Forest Management
• Afforestation (post 1990)
• Deforestation (post 1990)

8. Forest data

9. FR data fusion
Forestry Commission
‘Maximum likelihood’ approach Age-class
National Inventory of structure
Woodland and Trees
(NIWT, updated for
base year of 2000)
Species Age class
CARBINE output files
structure
CARBINE input files
Pre-1920
woodland Data fusion
process CARBINE Forestry
Forestry Commission Commission
planting statistics timber
production
Woodland creation
statistics
post 1920
Forestry Commission Management
Sub-Compartment cross-check
database Forecast
of production
Yield class Management

10. Wales CARBINE projections
2
1
0
Net sink/source (-/+) MtCO
-1
-2
-3
-4
Low
-5
Mid
-6 High
-7
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
0.4
2
0.2
Net sink/source (-/+) MtCO
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
HWP Low
-0.8 HWP Mid
HWP High
-1
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year

11. International climate negotiations
• We applied the CARBINE model to a range of
countries to support the efforts of UK and EU
negotiators at Copenhagen, Cancun and Durban.
• This resulted in important international
agreements on forestry at Durban.
100
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
yr -1 ) 2
-100
D-P
A-P
F-P
Removals/emissions (-/+) (MtCO
NET-P
-200
D-R
A-R
F-R
NET-R
-300
-400
-500
Year

12. Development
• More management scenarios
• Represent disturbance – fire/wind/disease
• Dynamic wood utilisation options

13. The end
• Questions & Answers