1. Carbon Forecasting in Forest Research
Paul Henshall

2. CSORT model
• What is C-Sort?
• Stand-level carbon accounting
• Inputs:
• Stand management/growth
• Product Extraction and allocation
• Decay rates (debris and products)
• Processing emissions

3. CSORT outputs and documentation
• Outputs
• Carbon – live, dead, extracted, Products
• Soil carbon
• Management emissions
• Further information
• Understanding the carbon and greenhouse gas balance of
forests in Britain
(Integrated Forest Carbon Review)
http://www.forestry.gov.uk/fr/INFD-7KHELL
• Carbon impacts of using biomass in bioenergy and other
sectors: forests
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachme

4. Stand and forest GHG dynamics
Application
of CSORT

5. Avoiding negative carbon impacts

6. CARBINE
• Country, region or estate level carbon
forecasting/accounting
• Inputs:
• Yearly area planted by
• Species (e.g. Oak)
• Management (Thin/No Thin, Fell/No Fell)
• Yield Class
• Future new planting assumptions (same info)
• Deforestation rate for each year
• Soil

7. CARBINE outputs
• Volume forecast
• Carbon accounting
• Soil carbon
• Harvested wood products
• Displaced fossil fuel emissions
• Energy Sector
• Construction sector
• Separate effects due to:
• Forest Management
• Afforestation (post 1990)
• Deforestation (post 1990)

8. Forest data

9. FR data fusion
Forestry Commission
‘Maximum likelihood’ approach Age-class
National Inventory of structure
Woodland and Trees
(NIWT, updated for
base year of 2000)
Species Age class
CARBINE output files
structure
CARBINE input files
Pre-1920
woodland Data fusion
process CARBINE Forestry
Forestry Commission Commission
planting statistics timber
production
Woodland creation
statistics
post 1920
Forestry Commission Management
Sub-Compartment cross-check
database Forecast
of production
Yield class Management

10. Wales CARBINE projections
2
1
0
Net sink/source (-/+) MtCO
-1
-2
-3
-4
Low
-5
Mid
-6 High
-7
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
0.4
2
0.2
Net sink/source (-/+) MtCO
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
HWP Low
-0.8 HWP Mid
HWP High
-1
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year

11. International climate negotiations
• We applied the CARBINE model to a range of
countries to support the efforts of UK and EU
negotiators at Copenhagen, Cancun and Durban.
• This resulted in important international
agreements on forestry at Durban.
100
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
yr -1 ) 2
-100
D-P
A-P
F-P
Removals/emissions (-/+) (MtCO
NET-P
-200
D-R
A-R
F-R
NET-R
-300
-400
-500
Year

12. Development
• More management scenarios
• Represent disturbance – fire/wind/disease
• Dynamic wood utilisation options

13. The end
• Questions & Answers