Presented by Peter Bishop at the Heart of North Texas Conference held by the Northeast Leadership Forum on November 3, 2017.

1. 12 Things you should know and
10 Things you can do
about Anticipating and
Influencing the Future
Tarrant County College
22 August 2017
http://bit.ly/LETU_Aug_2017

2. We teach the future as we do the past.
Agenda
1. What do you really want to teach?
2. What do stakeholders want you to teach?
3. In either case, you can use the future to do that!
4. Why now?
5. How?
6. Planning to teach the future this year.
7. Discussion -- Questions, objections, suggestions

3. We teach the future as we do the past.
12 Things
Your Students Should Know
about the Future

4. We teach the future as we do the past.
1. How many
futures are there?

5. We teach the future as we do the past.
1. The future is many, not one.

6. We teach the future as we do the past.
Predictable Future
The future as a river or a road or even a
roller coaster, following one path and
leading to a specific point

7. We teach the future as we do the past.
Contingent Future
The future as a
game of chance,
completely
unknowable and
unpredictable.

8. We teach the future as we do the past.
Chosen Future
The future as
a plan or a
blueprint, the
result of our
own efforts

9. We teach the future as we do the past.
The Actual Future
– The Expected Future
• Where we are headed
• The future if everything continues as it has
• The result of conditions and trends (momentum)
– The Alternative Futures
• What might happen instead
• The set of plausible futures if something less likely or unexpected
happens
• The result of events and issues (contingencies)
– The Preferred Future(s)
• What we want to happen
• Either the expected or any of the alternative futures that is
preferable
• The result of our vision, goals, plans and actions (agency)
Which one is correct? Why not use all three?

10. We teach the future as we do the past.
2. Where does the
future come from?

11. We teach the future as we do the past.
2. The future comes from the
world and from ourselves.
Anticipate Influence

12. We teach the future as we do the past.
3. How fast does
the future arrive?

13. We teach the future as we do the past.
3. Change occurs slowly and then
rapidly in alternating cycles.

14. We teach the future as we do the past.
Rates of Change
Continuous Change
• Gradual improvement over long periods
• Usually preserves the framework/context
Discontinuous Change
• Sudden change to new levels
• Usually destroys the famework
• Always involves short-term loss

15. We teach the future as we do the past.
 The energy crisis, 1973
 The PC, 1981
 The Berlin Wall, 1989
 The First Gulf War, 1991
 The World Wide Web, 1994
 Y2K, Tech Bubble, 2001
 9-11, 2011
 The Great Recession, 2008
 The recent election, 2016
4. Therefore, our picture of the
future is wrong!
 _____________, 2022?
 _____________, 2026?
 _____________, 2029?
 _____________, 2030?
 _____________, 2035?

16. We teach the future as we do the past.
5. Is the future
headed somewhere?

17. We teach the future as we do the past.
5. We are headed somewhere.

18. We teach the future as we do the past.
Predictable Future
The future as a river or a road or even a
roller coaster, following one path and
leading to a specific point

19. We teach the future as we do the past.
6. Is that somewhere
guaranteed to occur?

20. We teach the future as we do the past.
6. But what might
happen instead?

21. We teach the future as we do the past.
Contingent Future
The future as a
game of chance,
completely
unknowable and
unpredictable.

22. We teach the future as we do the past.
7. Can we deal with
all possible futures?

23. We teach the future as we do the past.
7. Anything is possible, but not
everything is plausible.

24. We teach the future as we do the past.
8. Where do the
plausible futures begin?

25. We teach the future as we do the past.
8. Pay attention to weak signals

26. We teach the future as we do the past.
9. What about futures
that don’t occur?

27. We teach the future as we do the past.
9. Dealing with the unpredictable
future is like going into space.

28. We teach the future as we do the past.
10. Who are our
leaders?

29. We teach the future as we do the past.
10. Authorities are
not always leaders...
Authorities make binding decisions

30. We teach the future as we do the past.
… and leaders may
not be authorities
Unknown conditions
Novel assumptions
Change seeking
Vision-oriented
Creative decisions
Transformational change

31. We teach the future as we do the past.
George
Washington
Thomas
Paine
George III
Authority Leader
The American Revolution

32. We teach the future as we do the past.
Leaders...
Are committed to goals they do not know how to achieve
Explore the boundaries of the possible
Lead people into new territory – a different future
Help people build a bridge
when they only know one
side of the river
Motivate people to do what
they don’t want to do in
order to achieve what they
do want to achieve

33. We teach the future as we do the past.
Leader
Someone who enrolls others
in the campaign
to accomplish
something of significance
My name is Harvey Milk... And
I am here to recruit you.

34. We teach the future as we do the past.
Leadership
Enrolling people
to accomplish
something
of significance

35. We teach the future as we do the past.
Chosen Future
The future as a
guidebook,
the result of our
effort

36. We teach the future as we do the past.
11. What are
our plans?

37. We teach the future as we do the past.
11. Plans are guides, not blueprints

38. We teach the future as we do the past.
Strategic Planning
Committing to
achieve priority goals
Direction > Plans
Understanding > Completeness
Commitment > Technicalities

39. We teach the future as we do the past.
Source: Making the Future Visible: Psychology, Scenarios, and Strategy Hardin Tibbs, September 1999

40. We teach the future as we do the past.
Goal Hierarchy
Measure Measure
Goal Goal Goal Goal Goal
Strategy Strategy Strategy Strategy Strategy Strategy
Initiative Initiative Initiative Initiative Initiative Initiative
Vision
Mission

41. We teach the future as we do the past.
12. Are we sure about
the consequences?

42. We teach the future as we do the past.
12. Beware of unintended
consequences
Famous last words:
“All we have to do is…”

43. We teach the future as we do the past.
5 things to do about it
1. Protect some time (5-10%) from the urgency of events in order to
reflect on how the future could occur and what you want it to be
in that future. You invest that much for your retirement; you
ought to invest that much to get a return on your time.
2. Bring news of change in from the world (strong and weak signals),
and link it to implications for yourself and your organization.
3. Don’t argue about whose future is “right.” There is no one “right”
future. Rather ask what you should do given the range of plausible
futures.
4. You are allowed to say, “I don’t think that is going to happen…,”
but only if you also say, “…but it could.”
5. Critically think about what you expect to happen by examining
your assumptions and listening to other people’s. Every plausible
alternative assumption creates a plausible alternative future.

44. We teach the future as we do the past.
5 more things
6. Expect the current era to continue, but be ready to move toward
the new era when the possibility of significant change appears on
the horizon.
7. Uncertainty is your friend. You would have no influence if the
future were certain.
8. Be a leader by recruiting others to a campaign to accomplish
something of significance or be an early follower and allow
yourself to be recruited by a leader whom you trust.
9. Develop and share the vision over and over again until people
connect present decisions and actions to the long-term good that
the vision promises.
10. Be humble about what you know and what you don’t, including
the outcomes and consequences of your decisions and actions.
You don’t know as much about the future as you think you do.

45. We teach the future as we do the past.
And be careful!
You don’t know as much as you think you do!

46. We teach the future as we do the past.
We teach the future
as well as the past.
www.TeachTheFuture.org
peter@teachthefuture.org
@teachfutures, #teachfutures
www.facebook.com/teachfutures
XXX