Presentation omid-roozmand

Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation
of Consumer Behavior
Omid Roozmand
Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College

Introduction
Consumer Behavior
$6.88 million for a car plate!

Introduction (Human Behavior)
Cultural
Psychological
How Do Consumers Behave?
Social
Personal

Introduction
Consumer Behavior
• Why do consumers of different countries have different purchasing
behavior?
• Why do consumers of one country, or even of one family have different
purchasing behavior?
• How are consumers influenced by other consumers?

Introduction
ABM: Understanding and Predicting the consumer behavior and its Consequences
 1- Understanding and Predicting the Individual consumer Behavior
 2- Understanding and Predicting the Consumption Behavior of a Society
 3- The Impact of the Behavior of Society on Environment

ABM of Consumer Behavior
 Introduction
o Agent-Based Modeling and Social Science
o Case Study: Consumer Behavior
 ABM of Consumer Behavior
o M&S of Culture and Personality
• Conceptual Model
• Computational Model
• Experimental Results
o Consumer Choice Aggregated Demand (CCAD)
• Maximizers
• Satisficers
• Results
 Conclusion and Future Work

- Culture (Power Distance, Individualism,
Masculinity, UA)
- Personality: Big Five (OCEAN)
- 6 Related Needs From Maslow, Max-
Neef
Sociological and
Psychological
Theories
Five Stages model of
Consumer Behavior
Consumer Behavior
And
Economics
Agent-Based Technology-
MASQ Meta Model
Computer Science
and
Artificial Intelligence
ABM of Consumer
Behavior

Consumer Behavior Decision Process
Need
Recognition
Information
Search
Evaluation Purchase Post-
Purchase

Hofstede Cultural Model

Human Needs as Main Drives!
 Social Status
 Social Responsibility
 Status Seeking (Power)
 Safety
 Novelty
 Affiliation

Agent-Based Model (MASQ Meta Model) (Ferber 2009)
Internal External
Mind
Culture
Body/Object
Space
Individual
Collective

 Introduction
o Agent-Based Modeling and Social Science
o Case Study: Consumer Behavior
 ABM of Consumer Behavior
o M&S of Culture and Personality
• Conceptual Model
• Computational Model
• Experimental Results
o Consumer Choice Aggregated Demand (CCAD)
• Maximizers vs. Satisficers
• Results
 Conclusion and Future Work

ABM of Consumer Behavior (Conceptual Model) (Roozmand 2011)
Mind
Culture

Calculating Weights of Needs
max{ (1 )*(1 ) * , } ss ss w  Pdi*status*DT  Pdi status A 
max{ (1 )*(1 ) * * * , } sr sr w  Pdi status A pdi status DT 
w maxMas*avg(O, E,1 A) (1 Mas)* A,0 st    
w Mas A saf  (1 )*
max{max{ , (1 )}* *(1 ), } nov nov w  IDV UA O UA O 
max{[ (1 ) * ( ) *(1 )], } aff aff w   Ind avg E  A  Ind  A 
Computational Model
Mind
Belief
Update
Agent‘s
State
Recognition
S
T
A
T
E
Personality
Perception
Need
Action
Estimation
Wealth
Culture dimensions
57 امید روزمند
سمینار دفاع از پایان نامه دکتری: مدل سازی مبتنی بر عامل رفتار خریدار بر اساس فرهنگ
و شخصیت
20/7/1390
15
57
Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Dartmouth College, ENVS

- Consumer agent perceive the products in the
market
- Consumer agent sees the other consumer agents
and their products
Computational Model
Mind
Belief
Update
Agent‘s
State
Recognition
S
T
A
T
E
Personality
Perception
Need
Action
Estimation
Wealth
Culture dimensions
و شخصیت
20/7/1390
16
57

Actual State
Actual state
(1 ) t (wss *prss )
SS as e  
Actual State (During Consumption)
t
t
SS as (1 decay )*as 1   
SS SS
Computational Model
Mind
Belief
Update
Agent‘s
State
Recognition
S
T
A
T
E
Personality
Perception
Need
Action
Estimation
Wealth
Culture dimensions
و شخصیت
20/7/1390
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57

t
SS ds  f ds society ds market
Social influence on desired state

w
SS prSS
pr PRCA
N
t
SS ds society e
New products’ influence on desired state

w
SS prSS
pr PR
N
t
SS ds market e
t
SS ds  AVG ds society ds market
و شخصیت
20/7/1390
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)
1
( *
_ 1

  
)
1
( *
_ 1

  
( _ , _ ) t
SS
t
SS
Computational Model
Desired State
( _ , _ ) t
SS
t
SS

Discrepancy between actual and desired state
t
Need D ds as
t
SS
i
SS
i
 
Arousal






Need
i i



Need
i i
t
Need
t
Need
True D
False D
Aroused
w W
  
(1 )* (1 )*AVG_Price
  1

Need
Needi
i
e
Computational Model
Mind
Belief
Update
Agent‘s
State
Recognition
S
T
A
T
E
Personality
Perception
Need
Action
Estimation
Wealth
Culture dimensions
و شخصیت
20/7/1390
19
57

Select the a product which satisfies the aroused
need.
t
pr E ds as

 
k k
k 
{ss,sr,st ,saf ,nov,aff }
t
sel pr pr pr  arg min E
Computational Model
Mind
Belief
Update
Agent‘s
State
Recognition
S
T
A
T
E
Personality
Perception
Need
Action
Estimation
Wealth
Culture dimensions
و شخصیت
20/7/1390
20
57

Experimental Results (Individual Decision Making)
1- There are totally 4 agents where 2 of them use our model and initially hold low status product
2- There are 2 products (high social status, low social status)

Experimental Results (Country-Level Results)
Eleven European Countries. Social Status
(Car Purchasing Behavior)

Experimental Results
Eleven European Countries. Social Responsibility
(Car Purchasing Behavior)

و شخصیت
20/7/1390
24
57

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