Hassan ppT.pptx

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THE IMPACT OF DROUGHT ON
LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION, HARGEISA
DISTRICT OF MARODI-JEH ZONE IN
SOMALILAND.
M.Sc. Thesis
By:
HASSAN ABDI OMAR
MAJOR ADVISOR: GELFETO (MBA, ASSISTAN
PROFESSOR)
JUNE,2022
HAWASSA, ETHIOPIA

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INTRODUCTION
 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
PRESENTER : Hassan Abdi Omar
PRESENTATION OUTLINES

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Droughts are known to have short-term and long-term
Impacts on pastoralists.
The short-term effected are the shocks caused by the
heavy losses of animals due to a drastic, decline of
grazing resources and food insecurity (Swift, 2002).
During the 2011 East Africa Drought, more than a quarter
of a million-people died in Somalia, half of them children
under the age of five (FSNAU, 2013).
Introduction
RURALDEVELOPMENTSTUDIES

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 Livestock production is the main pillar of Somaliland’s
economy the it is estimated to contribute World Bank
(2012)
60% of the GDP and
representing 85% of central government revenue
CONT..

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 Pastoralists and agro-pastoralists who occupy the vast majority in
Somaliland are hardly meet basic water requirements during the
current drought and the problem will most likely get worse due
to the climate change.
 Drought Impacts large proportion of the population in a number of
ways such as causing loss of life, loss of herds, crop failures, food
shortages which might lead to malnutrition, health problems and
outward mass migration. (Abdulkadir G (2017)
 Therefore, this study is aimed to fill the gap through examining the
trend of Impact of drought, and the adaptation strategies used by
pastoralists communities to the changing environment due to recurrent
droughts.
Statement of the problems

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General objective
 to examine the Impact of Drought on Livestock production hargeisa
district in Somaliland.
Specific objectives
 To assess the impact of drought on pastoral communities’ livelihoods
in the study area.
 To analyze variability and trend of rainfall of the study area over the
last three decades.
 To identify the adaptation strategies used by pastoralists to minimize
the impact of droughts in the study area
Objectives of the Study

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Drought factor
 Rainfall reduction
 Feed shortage
 Deforestation
 Water scarcity
Livestock production
Demographic factors
 Age of pastoral
 Education of level pastoral
 Sex of pastoral
 Family size
 Marital status of pastoral
Social economic factors
 Loss Income
 Loss Livelihood
 Chronic malnutrition
 Migration
Conceptual framework of the study Source: own construction (2021)
Rural Development studies
Conceptual Framework

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Description of the study area
 The study was carried out in the hargaisa districts, marodi-
jeh region, Somaliland.
 Hargaisa district is one of the Most of the inhabitants in the
region are pastoralists and agro-pastoral.
 It shares boarders with Sahil region in the East, Awdal
region in the west, Ethiopia in the South and parts of Awdal
in the North.
Research methodology
RURAL DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

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Location Map of the study area Source: owing constriction, 2022
Cont..
RURAL DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

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Research Design
 Descriptive research design was used to achieve the
objectives of the study.
 multi-stage sample techniques were used. It is combination
of quantitative and qualitative to identify the Impacts of
drought on livestock production used by the pastoral
community of hargaisa district.
Household survey
 Focus group discussion
key informant interviews (Kll)
Cont..

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Sampling Methods and Procedures
 The study used multi-stage sampling techniques in order to
select the representative sample from the total population in
the study area.
 The first sampling strategy was purposive selection of the
one district out of eight district based on the majority of
pastoral communities.
Cont..

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 Second, sample two kebeles out of four kebeles were
selected purposively based on the kebeles majority of
pastoral communities that Impact of drought mostly habited.
 Finally, select sample 151 respondent samples were
selected by using a stratified random sample method from
sampling units in proportion to kebeles population size.
 Simplified formula provided by Yamane (1967) was used to
determine the required sample size.
Cont..

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Categories Classification of sample frame Target Population Sample Size
1 Different Senior Officials 16 10
2 Malawle (kebele ) 150 93
3 Haraf (kebele) 78 48
Total 151
Cont..
Sample size of households per each selected Kebele and a
senior official.

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 The primary data were collected through:_
 Household survey
 Focus group discussion
Key Informant Interview
 Secondary data were collected from:_
 ministries office document/report
 Books
 Journals
 Research reports and articles
 National Meteorology Agency and
 Published and unpublished literature.
Cont..
Methods of Data Collection

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Methods of data analysis
Descriptive statistic: were used to analyses quantitative
and qualitative data. such as percentages, frequency ,graphs,
tables, mean, standard deviation.
inferential statistics were used to analyses metrological
data particularly the rainfall data, simple statistical test such
as Chi-square (X2) Coefficient of Variation (CV) and
Trend Analysis.
.

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Variables Categories
Total
N %
Sex of HHs Female 92 60.9
Male 59 39.1
Marital status Married 93 61.6
single 50 33.1
widowed
divorced
3
5
2
3.3
Age of HHs 18-29 27 17.9
30-42 55 36.4
43-55 36 23.8
55-Above 33 21.9
Education Illiterate 107 70.9
Literate 44 29.1
Farm size 1-3 30 19.9
4-6 71 47
7-9 23 15.2
Table1:Socio demographic characteristics of the respondents
Result and discussion

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6/11/2023 17
Variable Category Frequency Percent
factors cause of droughts
Natural factor 101 66.9
Human factor 41 27.2
Both Natural
&Human factor
9 6.0
Total 151 100
Table 4: The Factors That Causes the Drought
Source: field Survey (2021)
Cont..

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18
60
70
100
30
20
40
70
20
40
30
40
10
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
camels goat sheep cattle
types of livestock Before and after drought HHs
before drough during drought after drought
Cont..

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19
Table5: Perceived frequency of drought and Hunger Occurrence in
Hargiasa district (31may)
Cont..
ource: field Survey (2021)
Variable Category Frequency Percent
Drought frequency
Increase 129 85.4
Decrease 7 4.6
Constant 7 4.6
Un-sure 8 5.3
Hunger Frequency
Increase 101 66.9
Decrease 27 17.9
Constant 14 9.3
Un-sure 9 6

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6/11/2023
20
Table 7:migrating and distance pastoralists migrate
Cont..
No Description Category Frequency Percentage
1. Have you ever migrated from your area
to another area?
Yes 137 90.7%
No 14 9.3%
Total 151 100%
2. If ‘yes’ how many kilo meters to your
area far away from other areas?
< 20km 10 6.6%
40km 15 9.9%
60km 25 16.6%
80km 34 22.5%
>81Km 67 44.4%
Total 151 100%

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21
Table 8: how pastoralists depend on their lifestyle on livestock production
Cont..
No
Description Category Frequency Percentage
1. Economically, how did livestock
contribute to your livelihood?
Milk 99 65.6%
Meat 35 23.2%
Butter 11 7.3%
Hide and skin 6 4.0%
Total 151 100%
2. Have you ever sold with any your
livestock?
Yes 122 80.8%
No 29 19.2%
Total 151 100%
3. If, Yes, which approach did you sell
on your livestock?
By bring livestock market 96 63.8%
By farm gate 36 23.3%
None 19 12.6%
Total 151 100%

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6/11/2023 22
Impacts of droughts to livestock productions
Impacts Yes No Rank X2
N Freq % Freq %
Feed shortage 151 146 96.7 5 3.3 3 0.000
Diseases 151 136 90.1 15 9.9 4 0.000
Water shortage 151 149 98.7 2 1.3 1 0.000
Reduction of production 151 147 97.4 4 2.6 2 0.000
Sudden death 151 132 87.4 19 12.6 5 0.000
Market failure 151 112 74.2 39 25.8 6 0.000
Source: Field survey (2021) *** = Significant at 0.05 probability level
Cont..

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6/11/2023 23
Results of annual maximum and minimum for 1980-2015.
Source: Computed from Data Obtained from NMA, Somaliland (1980-2015)
Cont..
Descriptive Statistics Annual and Seasonal Rainfall
Annual Rainfall Gu’(spring ) Deyr’(fall)
Mean(mm) 579.55 217.16 269.28
Standard deviation 138.91 72.89
71.78
Co-efficient variation
(%)
24% 34% 27%
Maximum(mm) 862mm 439mm 411mm
Minimum(mm) 380.10mm 68.30mm 133.10mm
Mean PCI (%) 11.51% 9.27% 8.76%

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24
Annual and Seasonal rainfall Trend
Source: Computed from Data Obtained from NMA, Somaliland (1980-2015)
Cont..

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6/11/2023 25
Respondents
Adaptations Strategies Yes No Rank X2
N Freq % Freq %
Herd Mobility 151 140 92.7 11 7.3 1 0.229
Destocking 151 136 90.1 15 9.9 2
Herd diversification 151 131 86.8 20 13.2 3
Adaptation strategies used by Pastoral Communities in the hargaisa District
Source: Survey Data, 2021
Cont..

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Adaptation strategies used by Barriers Strategies in the hargaisa District.
26.5%
42.4%
21.9%
9.2%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Labor shortage Financial barrier Information gap Knowledge gap
Barriers Strategies
percent
Source: Survey Data, 2021
Cont..

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Conclusion
study showed that pastoralist communities in the study
area have already perceived the drought incidence over
the study period.
Most of the household respondents reported that they
have experienced drought impacts with varying degree
over years.
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

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 The impacts of droughts in the study area include:-
 livestock production become less
production.
Disease of livestock
 shortage of water
 reduce feed shortage or posture
reduce milk and meat
Conflict
Migration
Those impacts are affecting livelihood of pastoralists
communities in the study area.
Cont.……….

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Adaptation to drought is a means of responding to the
impacts of climatic changes, using indigenous knowledge
systems or technological driven practices.
As a result of the study, the adaptation strategies employed
by pastoralists communities in the study area include:
 herd mobility
 reducing livestock holding
Herd diversification
Cont.……….

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 The need for a strong and organized early warning system is
crucial for the pastoralists to get information about the upcoming
weather shocks and take actions accordingly to minimize the
disaster as early as possible.
 To improve primary education in rural areas suitable to pastoralists
 to train rural communities on proper storage of food, water and
pasture as drought prevention measures.
Recommendations

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 Strengthening the technical and financial capability of research
section of the ministry of livestock.
 There is need for the government to strengthen the autonomous
adaptation processes of the pastoralists to improve their capacity to
cope with and recover from drought.
 Government should put an effort how to develop the
meteorological station of the country
Cont.……….

Hassan ppT.pptx

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