This dissertation examines the impacts of climate variability and adaptation strategies of smallholder farmers in Pemba District, Zambia. The study finds that farmers have knowledge of climate variability from various information sources and have experienced changes in weather patterns, resulting in impacts like crop failure and food insecurity. Farmers have adopted various adaptation strategies, notably climate weather insurance and participation in savings groups. The study concludes farmers have adopted strategies to address climate impacts. It recommends improving irrigation, meteorology infrastructure, and promoting savings groups to help farmers mitigate climate variability.

1. DETERMINING CLIMATE VARIABILITY IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR
SMALLHOLDER FARMERS IN PEMBA DISTRICT OF ZAMBIA
Dissertation presentation
MOKA KALIWILE M.
23.09.2020
UNIVERSITY OF LUSAKA
SCHOOL OF POSTGRADUATE STUDIES
Master of Science in Environmental Management

2. OUTLINE
1.0 Introduction
2.0 Methodology
3.0 Results and analysis
4.0 Discussion
5.0 Conclusions and Recommendations
6.0 Limitations of the study
7.0 Recommendations for future study
8.0 References

3. 1.1 Background to the study
• Smallholder farmers (SHFs) are vulnerable to climate variability (CV)
due to dependence on rain-fed agricultural systems (IPCC, 2014)
• SHFs contribute up to 80% food supply in Sub-Saharan Africa (FAO,
2014)
• SHFs farm activities in Zambia contribute 64% to the household
average annual income (Chapoto and Zulu-Mbata, 2016)
• Drought and floods have continued to reduce the available
livelihood options for SHFs (Mweemba, 2014)
1. INTRODUCTION
(Image: DAPP, 2020)

4. • Studies have shown that SHFs CV experiences and adopted adaptation
strategies are not integrated in district agriculture development plans
(Mutekwa, 2009, Somanje, 2015).
• Lack of research contributing to using top to bottom approach in SHFs CV
adaptation programmes making SHFs more vulnerable as some of the
imposed strategies cannot be applied in all districts (Kinkese, 2017).
• This study contributes to filling the knowledge gap in available literature
on impacts of CV and adopted adaptation strategies by SHF in Zambia
1.2 Statement of the problem

5. General objective
• To determine climate variability impacts and adaptation strategies
adopted by smallholder farmers in Pemba district.
Specific objectives
i. To determine smallholder farmer’s knowledge regarding climate
variability.
ii. To explore climate variability experiences by smallholder farmers.
iii. To determine climate variability adaptation strategies adopted by
smallholder farmers to mitigate the observed climate change impacts
in Pemba district.
1.3 Research objectives

6. i. What is the smallholder farmers’ knowledge regarding climate variability?
ii. What are smallholder famers’ experiences with regards climate variability
impacts in Pemba district?
iii. What are the current climate change and variability adaptation strategies
undertaken by small smallholder in Pemba district?
1.4 Research questions

7. • This research documents the experienced CV impacts and adaptation
strategies adopted by SHFs in Pemba district of Zambia.
• Availability of such information, will aid the development of agriculture
district plans and polices using the bottom to top approach.
• The research bridges the current knowledge gap and contributes
to Empirical evidence.
1.5 Significance of study

8. • Focused on understanding how much knowledge the smallholder farmers
have on climate change and variability.
• Determined the current climate change and variability impacts and
adaptation strategies adopted by smallholder farmers.
1.6 Scope of the Study

9. 2. LITERATURE REVIEW
• Agriculture contributes 20% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and accounts for
more than 60% of Zambia’s labour force (NPCC, 2017).
• 98% of the farmers are classified as smallholder farmers whose agricultural
activities are almost entirely dependent on rainfall (NAPA, 2007).
• Since 1960, Zambia has recorded an average annual temperature increase of
1.3°C and a decrease in annual precipitation at a mean rate of 1.9mm per
month per decade (World Bank Group [WBG], 2020).
• Literature cited revealed that not all SHF’s had knowledge about CV and its
causes. However, they have all experienced the changes in weather patterns
(Mubaya et al. 2010, Kinkese, 2017)
• SHF’s have adopted adaptation strategies to mitigate CV impacts (E.g.
Conservation agriculture) (Mutekwa, 2009)

10. 2.1 Theoretical Framework
• Sustainable Livelihood Approach (SLA) determines the link between climate
variability impacts and adopted adaptation strategies (Serrat, 2017)
• SLA is a problem solving tool which provides an analytical framework for
ideas that led to sustainable interventions for developing countries (Morse
and McNamara, 2013).
• SLA improves understanding of the livelihoods, organises the factors that
constrain or enhance livelihood opportunities and shows how they relate.

11. 2.2 Conceptual framework
Fig 1: Conceptual framework adapted from Serrat (2017).

12. 3. METHODOLOGY
3.2 Research design;
• Survey with a mixed methods approach
3.3 Sampling technique and sample size;
3.1 Study Location;
• Kasiya agricultural camp, Pemba district, Southern province Zambia.
• Simple random sampling technique
• Yamane’s formula for calculating sample size for a finite (Sarmah and Hazarika, 2012).
• 87 SHF respondents identified
• 2 key informants where selected using purposive sampling technique (Acharya et al., 2013)
3.4 Data collection and analysis;
• Primary data - from SHF and KI (semi-structured questionnaire)
• Secondary data - using desk research
• Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS version 19) & Microsoft Excel package (version 2016)
3.5 Validity and Reliability;
• Verifying of data, liaising with stakeholders to seek clarification, adhering to the ethical guidelines,
ensuring that all the study objectives are met.

13. 4. RESULTS
Fig 2: Understanding of climate variability Fig 3: Main drivers of climate variability
4.1 SHFs Knowledge on CV
Main source of information is mainly Radio, Non Governmental organisations and government

14. Figure 4: Climate variability experienced Figure 5: Impacts of climate variability
4. RESULTS Continued..
4.2 SHFs CV experiences and impacts

15. 4.3 CV adaptation strategies adopted by SHFs
4. RESULTS Continued…
Figure 7: Strategies adopted against short rain season by
smallholder farmers
Figure 8: Strategies adopted against reduced precipitation & droughts

16. 4. RESULTS Continued..
Figure 8: livestock management strategies
Adaption against flash floods:
• 47% of SHF receive remittances
• 22% of SHF receive food aid from the DMMU
& NGO’s
Adaptation against increased frequency of high
temperatures
• 66% of SHF plant trees around homesteads,
crop fields and vegetable gardens.

17. 5. DISCUSSION
SHF’s knowledge regarding climate Variability (CV)
• The research confirms that SHFs are aware and associate CV with rainfall and
temperature unpredictability (Adebayo et al., 2012).
• Majority of SHFs link the causes of CV to land use change (Mulenga et al., 2017)
which is similar to the research findings. Other contrasting studies attribute CV
to natural causes (Mubaya et al., 2010).
• CV Awareness programs have contributed to improving SHFs knowledge.
SHF’s experiences and impacts with regards CV impacts
• Research findings confirm that SHFs have experienced changes in weather
patterns.

18. 5. DISCUSSION continued…
• Impact experienced include; Crop failure and destruction, food insecurity, reduced household
income, increased human and livestock diseases, household water stress (Mutekwa, 2009,
Ringler et al., 2010
SHF’s adaptation strategies (CV)
• Findings indicated that SHFs have taken up crop weather insurance which was in line with
literature (Fisher et al. 2010).
• SHFs are also actively taking part in Saving and Internal Lending Committee (SILC) (Fisher et al.
(2010).
• Limited literature on crop weather insurance and SILC for Zambia and Southern Africa.
• Other adaptation strategies in line with literature: Conservation Agriculture, early maturing
varieties, vaccination of livestock and migration CFU (2010)

19. 6. CONCLUSIONS
SHF’s know what CV is and have adopted several strategies to mitigated impacts
with notable concepts adopted being climate weather insurance and active
participation in SILC .

20.  Design and invest in programs that focus on
improving irrigation systems for SHF’s.
 Improve meteorology infrastructure
 Encourage SHF’s across the country to form local
SILC
7. RECOMMENDATION
(Image: BISA, 2017)

21. 6. LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
7. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE STUDY
Need to conduct more research in the following areas;
• Crop weather insurance as an adaptation measure for smallholder farmers;
is it worth the investment? Is it sustainable?
• SILC as an adaptation measure and its impact on the livelihood of
smallholder farmers; opportunities and challenges.
• Challenges in accessing respondents due to restrictions as a result of the
coronavirus preventive measures.
• Limited financial resources to increase sample size.

22. 8.0 REFERENCES
• CFU, 2010. The practice of conventional and conservation agriculture in East and Southern Africa. Available:
http://conservationagriculture.org/conservation-farming-information. [2020 June 22]
• CHAPOTO, A. & ZULU-MBATA, O. 2016. Rural agricultural livelihoods survey: 2015 survey report. Indaba Agricultural Policy
Research Institute (IAPRI).
• FAO 2014. The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2012: Economic growth is necessary but not sufficient to accelerate
reduction of hunger and malnutrition. FAO, Rome.
• FISHER, M., CHAUDHURY, M. & MCCUSKER, B. 2010. Do forests help rural households adapt to climate variability?
Evidence from Southern Malawi. World Development, 38, 1241-1250.
• IPCC, 2014: Annex II: Glossary [Mach, K.J., S. Planton and C. von Stechow (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report.
Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
[Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 117-130
• KINKESE, T. 2017. Climate change impacts and farmers' responses in Chilanga District, Zambia. University of Cape Town.
• MUBAYA, C. P., NJUKI, J., LIWENGA, E., MUTSVANGWA, E. P. & MUGABE, F. T. 2010. Perceived impacts of climate related
parameters on smallholder farmers in Zambia and Zimbabwe. Journal of Sustainable Development in Africa, 12, 170-186.
• MUTEKWA, V. 2009. Climate change impacts and adaptation in the agricultural sector: The case of smallholder farmers in
Zimbabwe. Journal of Sustainable Development in Africa, 11, 237-256.
• MWEEMBA, L. 2014. Climate Change in the Zambian Mind: Communicating Risk Perception of Climate Change and Variability
in Zambia. Zambia Social Science Journal, 5, 6.
• RINGLER, C., ZHU, T., CAI, X., KOO, J. & WANG, D. 2010. Climate change impacts on food security in sub-Saharan
Africa. Insights from Comprehensive Climate Change Scenarios.
• ZEMA, 2012. Zambia Environmental Management Atlas of Our Changing Environment, GRID-Erendal/UNEP. Available:
https://cld.bz/bookdata/Boft06r/basic-html/page-46.html [2020, June 20].