11. Reil et al. 2015
Peer reviewed
research
Fig 2. Mean beech mast intensity of the previous year, bank vole abundance, and human PUUV
incidence in Germany 2001โ2012. Bars = mean beech mast intensity of the previous year, solid line =
bank vole abundance, and broken line = human PUUV incidenceโฆ
The MASTREE database
12. Grey literature
AFZ*-Der Wald series
*AFZ: Allgemeine Forst Zeitschrift fรผr Wald und Forstwirtschaft
The MASTREE database
21. (Pearse et al. 2016 New Phyt)
Why does beech masting synchronize across Europe?
22. -
+
Summer
2 years before
Summer
1 year before
Correlation
Mean
. Significant < 0.05
* Significant < 0.01
Why does beech masting synchronize across Europe?
Vacchiano et al. 2017, New Phytol. 215(2)
Masting chronologies
23. (Pearse et al. 2016 New Phyt)
Why does beech masting synchronize across Europe?
24. Wet summer -2
Resource
accumulation
โข C intake by
photosynthesis
โข Faster N mineralization
โข Higher N, P uptake
Hot (dry) summer -1
Gibberellin induction
โข Resources allocated to
flowering
โข Gene regulation ??
Year of masting
Pollen coupling (if
limited)
โข Higher precipitaIon
favors pollinaIon
โข Absence of "canceling"
factors, eg spring frost
โข Resources depleted in
year +1
Why does beech masting synchronize across Europe?
25. DE1 DE2 DE9
DEF DK0 NL1
SE2 UKJ
Masting intensity vs. TMX
Are weather cues stable across time?
-
+
Summer
2 years before
Summer
1 year before
Vacchiano et al. 2017, New Phytol. 215(2)
26. Weather vs. Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
Summer Temperature Precipitation
NAO+
1950-2015: Climate Prediction Centre NAO Index (NOAA)
1900-2015: Hurrell et al. 1995 NAO Index (HURRELL)
1826-2015: Jones et al. 1997 NAO Index (JONES)
What drives beech masting synchrony?
Ascoli et al. 2017, Nature Communications
27. European MAST_index (1850-2015)
[% chronologies in class 4-5 % chronologies in class 1-2]
What drives beech masting synchrony?
Ascoli et al. 2017, Nature Communications
28. Wavelet coherence analysis - MAST_index vs. NAO-winter
year
What drives beech masting synchrony?
Ascoli et al. 2017, Nature Communications
29. Summer yr-2
Winter
Spring yr0
Summer yr-1
Spring NAO (NOAA)
Winter NAO (NOAA)
Summer NAO (NOAA)
LowHighfrewuency
+0.40
***
-0.50
***
+0.37
***
+0.51
***
What drives beech masting synchrony?
Ascoli et al. 2017, Nature Communications
30. 1958 2004
Heatwave summer 2003
not induced by NAO
but by tropical hot air mass
What drives beech masting synchrony?
Ascoli et al. 2017, Nature Communications
31. ยง Literature review within EU PROFOUND Cost action
ยง Stand, landscape, and global scale (DGVM)
ยง Does modeling masting make a difference?
ยง How can modelers implement masting at different scales?
ยง What processes remain poorly understood?
(Vacchiano et al. 2018, Eco Mod)
How to predict and model masting?
32. We propose that masting can be integrated using two
approaches:
1. PATTERNS ร reproducing demographic and
ecological patterns (both spatially and temporally)
using context-dependent data
2. PROCESSES ร understanding and reproducing
mechanistic processes
(usually more general, but more complex and not
necessarily more accurate)
How to predict and model masting?
33. PATTERNS
ร 175 papers from systematic Scopus search
ร vast amount of information for parameterising masting patterns
ร Variety of biomes, species, PFTs
How to predict and model masting?
(Vacchiano et al. 2018, Eco Mod)
34. PATTERNS
Kelly et al. 2013
ร Seed production and weather cues
How to predict and model masting?
ร Variability, synchrony, (frequency)
35. Some challenges with a pattern based approachโฆ e.g. Masting
response to climate change not well understood
How to predict and model masting?
37. How to predict and model masting?
Strong tradition relating
masting to resources (69%)
ร Not just carbon:
nutrients (N) key
resource regulating
masting
ร processes related to
resources are linked to
all 3 patterns,
especially variability
(Vacchiano et al. 2018, Eco Mod)
38. Modelling masting processes
Complete process-based models of masting do not exist (yet)
ร there is no existing model that could easily be โplugged inโ
ร Resource budget model the closest (?)
(i) tree accumulates
C & nutrients
(ii) Reproduction only
when reserves >
threshold
(iii) Excess allocated
to flowers
(iv) Successful
pollination
(v) Fruits mature,
depleting reserves
Recommendations
(Isagi 1997)
39. A struggle: relating seed production to multiple and
interacting proximate causes
ร only 40% of algorithms had a multivariate structure
ร Also, some processes have not/are impossible to
implement in some models
(e.g. pollination in models that don't have flowers)
ร Implementing patterns as a first step to improve model
predictions
ร Process-based implementation based on RBM
Recommendations
40. Acknowledgements
Fabio Berzaghi , Manuel Esteban Lucas-Borja, Thomas Caignard, Alessio Collal@, Paola Mairota,
Ciprian Palaghianu, Christopher P.O. Reyer, Tanja G.M. Sanders, Eliane Schermer, Thomas
Wohlgemuth, Marco Turco, Renzo MoJa, Janet Maringer, Marco Conedera, Igor Drobyshev,
Mara Cirolli, Wลadysลaw Kantorowicz, Chris@an Zang, Silvio Schueler, Luc Croiseฬ, Pietro Piussi,13
Roberta BerreU, Ciprian Palaghianu , Marjana Westergren,15onathan G. A. Lageard, Anton
Burkart, Regula Gehrig Bichsel, Peter A. Thomas, Burkhard Beudert, Rolf รvergaard
Thank you for your attention.