Atlantic Council - Mohammad Zaidi

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From Here to There
Pathways to a Sustainable Future

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Atlantic Council - Mohammad Zaidi

  1. 1. FROM  HERE  TO  THERE   Pathways  Toward  a  Sustainable  Future   Mohammad  Zaidi   9  September  2013  
  2. 2. Sustainability  and  the  Role  of  Business:     A  collaborative  effort  involving  29  global  companies  representing  14  industries  
  3. 3. Megatrends:  growth,  inertia,  opportunities   30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1950 1975 Life  expectancy  (years) 2000 2025 2050                                               The  growing  world  population  is  increasingly  urban   The  global  middle  class  is  rapidly  expanding   0   1,000   2,000   3,000   4,000   5,000   6,000   7,000   8,000   9,000   10,000   1950   1960   1970   1980   1990   2000   2010   2020   2030   2040   2050   Population  in  millions                                         Life  expectancy  by  region  –  1950-­2050   People,  worldwide,  are  living  longer   0 2 0 0 5 2 0 3 0 2 4 6 8 1 0 1 2 1 4 1 6 4 0 0  m illio n 1 .2  b illio n Percent  of  global  population               Source:  UNDP,  OECD,  World  Bank,  WBCSD     0 C hinaU nited  States India Brazil M exico R ussia Indonesia Japan U nited  Kingdom G erm any 10,000 20,000 30,000 GDP  2006  US$  bn 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 Global  economic  power  is  shifting   Top  10  economies  by  GDP  in  2050  
  4. 4. Supply  and  demand:  risks  &  challanges   Business  As  Usual  Will  Require   Resources  of  2.3  Planets  by  2050     1970 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 GtCO2 eq       GHG  emissions  by  regions   Greenhouse  gas  emissions  keep  rising   0 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Millions  of  people 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000       People  living  in  areas  of  water  stress  by  level  of  stress   Environmental  degradation  jeopardizes  people’s   quality  of  life  and  economy   An  aging  population  will  stress  healthcare  &   income  distribution   World  population  by  age  (millions)   0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 World  average  biocapacity  per  person  in  2006 World  average  biocapacity  per  person  in  1961 UNDP  threshold  for  high  human  development High  human  development within  the  Earth’s  limits 2 4 6 8 10 12 Ecological  Footprint  (global  hectares  per  person) United  Nations  Human  Development  Index                                                 African  countries Asian  countries European  countries Latin  American  and Caribbean  countries North  American  countries Oceanian  countries Source:  Global  Footprint  Network,  UNDP,  OECD,  World  Bank,  WBCSD    
  5. 5.          The  Vision  for  2050  
  6. 6. "Must  –  Haves"  for  a  Sustainable  2050                  -­  A  selected  set  of  40  measures  for  ten  key  sectors   Doubling  of  Agricultural  output  without  increasing  the  amount  of  land  or  water  used.  Cropland  efficiency   for  cereal  production  to  double  in  Africa.     Halting  deforestation.  75%  of  fiber  for  paper  and  packaging  to  be  supplied  by  planted  forests  (  as   opposed  to  natural  forests).     Freshwater  supply  to  double  in  Asia-­pacific  and  Africa.     Halving  carbon  emissions  worldwide  (  from  2005  baseline)  by  2050  with  GHG  emissions  peaking  in   2020.  This  leads  to  containing  average  global  temperature  rise  to  2  deg  C.       Delivering  a  5X  improvement  in  use  of  resources  and  materials.     Incorporating  the  cost  of  externalities  ,  starting  with  carbon,  ecosystem  services  and  water.     Education  to  shift  fertility  rates  to  around  replacement  levels.    
  7. 7. Pathways  to  Vision:  350  Milestones  on  10  Tracks:     energy,  buildings,  materials,  mobility,  economy,  people  governance,   forests,  agriculture,  ecosystems  
  8. 8. Sustainability  at  Alcoa   PRODUCTION  of  Aluminum:     GHG  emissions  reduction  –  44%  since  1990   Inert  anode  in  development  –  zero  CO2  emissions  from  Smelter   Carbon  capture  technology.   Waste  products  for  water  purification.   Continuous  casting  of  sheet  with  60-­70  %  less  footprint.     APPLICATIONS  of  Aluminum:   Light  weighting  of  transport  sector  (  6-­10%  fuel  efficiency):  From  Airplanes  to  Cars  to  Trucks                             Note:  10%  fuel  efficiency  enables  75  billion  gallons  of  annual  fuel  savings  and  600  million  MT  of  CO2   reduction  across  all  transportation  segments,  globally)   Buildings  :  Eco-­clean  and  smog  reduction.    100,000  sq.ft  façade  =  80  trees   Consumer  Electronics:  Aesthetics  and  thermal  management     RECYCLING  of  Aluminum:   Cans,  Cars,  Building  products,  consumer  electronics   Infinitely  recyclable:  75%  of  all  aluminum  produced  in  past  120  years  is  still  in  use.  Uses  95%  less   energy  and  produces  95%  less  GHG  than  primary  aluminum.    
  9. 9. Pathways  to  a  Sustainable  Future     1. Proliferation  of  Best  Practices  and  Efficiencies.     1. Affordable  Transformations  and  their  global  deployment       Generally  driven  by  top-­down  organizational  structures              
  10. 10. Energy   Water   Forestry   Metals   Health  &  education   Agriculture  &  Food   Annual  value  in  2050  at  constant  2008  prices   US$  trillion   0   0.5   1   1.5   2   2.5   3   3.5   4   Sustainability  related  business  opportunity  :   From  $  1  trillion  /  yr.  in  2020  to  $6.2  trillion/  yr.  in  2050   Source:  PwC  estimates  drawing  on  data  from  IEA,  OECD  and  the  World  Bank    
  11. 11. Afina   Braemar  Portfolio   Lighting  Efficiency    /  Demand  Response   Renewable  Fuels  &  Chemicals   Storage   Fossil  Fuels   Other  
  12. 12. Conclusions   1. Global  sustainability  challenges  will  become  the  key   strategic  drivers  for  business  and  innovation.     2. Technology,  Business  innovation  and  global  collaborations   can  create  pathways  to  a  sustainable  world.     3. Business  must  work  closely  with  governments  and  society   worldwide  to  transform  markets,  prices  and  competition.     4. Vision  2050  lays  out  the  pathways  and  outlines  vast  new   business  opportunities    -­  US$  6  -­  10  trillion  annually.      We  can  achieve  the  Vision:  9  billion  people  living   well,  within  the  means  of  1  planet    
  13. 13. Hierarchy  vs.  Network   Global   Connectivity   Low  cost   Sensing  and   ‘Big  data’   Computing     Affordable   Trans-­ formations   Gaming   Crowd-­ Funding  
  14. 14. Pathways  to  a  Sustainable  Future     1. Proliferation  of  Best  Practices  and  Efficiencies.     1. Affordable  Transformations  and  their  global  deployment     2. Self  Organization              
  15. 15. The  Power  of  Self-­Organization  

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