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Systems thinking for analyzing problems

Systems thinking for analyzing problems presentation
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Systems thinking for analyzing problems

  1. 1. Systems Thinking in Analyzing Problems Bushra Zaidi
  2. 2. 2
  3. 3. INTRODUCTIONS • Professional Information Company/Overview of Role • Purpose Why are you here? What do you want to take away from this course? • Personal Information Fantasy Breakfast! Who, Where, What? 3
  4. 4. Introduction to Systems Thinking
  5. 5. The Dilbert System
  6. 6. Introduction to the systems concept The six blind men and an elephant A partial truth The moral of the story: having a ‘holistic’ view “The behaviour of a system cannot be known just by knowing the elements of the system” (Meadows 2008, p.7) © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  7. 7. Knowledge and Experience 0 5 10 I Recognize Dilbert I Have Heard of Systems Thinking Jay Forrester Sends Me Flowers On My Birthday
  8. 8. The World’s Biggest Problems • Armed Conflict • Spread of Infectious Disease • Growing Population • Availability of Energy • International Terrorism • The Economy • Climate Change • Poverty, Hunger, Lack of Water Date Source: Eurobarometer survey of the EU, 2011 Image Source: 123RF
  9. 9. Why Do These Problems Persist?
  10. 10. Schools Have Not Prepared Students to Solve Them
  11. 11. Learning to solve this… A car averages 27 miles per gallon. If gas costs $4.04 per gallon, which of the following is closest to how much the gas would cost for this car to travel 2,727 typical miles? A. $44.44 B. $109.08 C. $118.80 D. $408.04 E. $444.40 Question Source: ACT Prep Image Source: MarketMixup
  12. 12. won’t teach you to solve this. The United States consumers more than 20% (7 billion barrels) of the world’s oil supply annually yet only has 2% of the world’s proven oil reserves. What factors will determine when we reach “peak oil”—the point in time when the maximum rate of petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of oil production is expected to enter terminal decline? Image Source: OnlineBikeMania
  13. 13. Systems Thinking Traditional analysis focuses on the individual pieces of what is being studied. Systems thinking focuses on how the things being studied interact with the other constituents of the system. Instead of isolating smaller and smaller parts of the system being studied, systems thinking works by expanding its view to consider larger and larger numbers of interactions as an issue is being studied. Image Source: Flickr Creative Commons, by erwlas
  14. 14. Problem Solving: Pest Control Problem: Insect “A” is damaging crops Traditional Analysis Approach: Spray pesticide to kill the insects Insect “A” Population Insect “B” Population Pesticide Application Insect “A” Declines Crops Flourish OVER TIME… Insect “B” Population Explodes Crops Damaged Even More
  15. 15. “A system is a set of elements or parts that is coherently organised and interconnected in a pattern or structure that produces a characteristic set of a behaviours, often classified as its ‘function’ or ‘purpose’” (Meadows 2008, p.188) “Simply defined, a system is a complex whole the functioning of which depends on its parts and the interactions between those parts” (Jackson 2003, p.3) “A system is more than the sum of its parts – it is the product of their interactions” (Ackoff 1999) Definitions of Systems © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  16. 16. What is a System? A set of elements or parts that is coherently organized and interconnected in a pattern or structure that produces a characteristic set of behaviors, often classified as its “function” or “purpose.” (Donella Meadows)
  17. 17. Components of a System Elements Inter- connections Function
  18. 18. Elements Elements • Typically the most obvious part of a dynamic system • Changing elements often has very little effect on the system Image Source: Armchair GM
  19. 19. Interconnections Inter- connections • Often involve the flow of information • Changing relationships usually changes system behavior Image Source: Creative Commons by ~IconTexto
  20. 20. Function • Typically the least obvious part of a dynamic system • A change in purpose changes a system profoundly Image Source: Antique Radios Function
  21. 21. Systems: Key Points • A system is more than the sum of its parts. • Many of the interconnections in systems operate through the flow of information. • The least obvious part of the system, its function or purpose, is often the most crucial determinate of the system’s behavior. • System structure is the source of system behavior. System behavior reveals itself as a series of events over time.
  22. 22. A collection is also composed of a number of parts but they are just dumped together and are not interconnected (Sherwood 2002) A marriage: a collection or a system? A Degree program? Source: Honey, are we a collection or a system? I hope we are a system! © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen A System versus a Collection
  23. 23. Systems Thinking: The Iceberg View Events Patterns of Behavior Over Time Systemic Structural Causes Increased Leverage and Opportunity for Learning and Change
  24. 24. Systems Thinking: The Iceberg View Events Patterns of Behavior Over Time Systemic Structural Causes Reactive: We react to each event as it happens Responsive: We try to respond to patterns Generative: We take the time to understand how the dynamic interaction of variables generates behavior
  25. 25. Systems Thinking: Interconnections •Three ways to look at systems: •A collection of parts •Parts in interaction with one another •Parts embedded in a system
  26. 26. What is Thinking? “Thinking consists of two activities: constructing mental models and then simulating them in order to draw conclusions and make decisions.” – Barry Richmond Understanding the concept of a tree requires more information than is available through sensory experience alone. It’s built on past experiences and knowledge. Source: Jeremy Merritt
  27. 27. Mental Models Image Source: Flickr Creative Commons, by Dave Hosford
  28. 28. Mental Models Image Source: Sports in Wisconsin
  29. 29. Mental Models Image Source: The Baby Proofing Blog
  30. 30. Mental Models • Embedded assumptions, generalizations, photographs/images that impact how we see the world • Determine how we take action • Action is taken by working with our individual mental models and “turning the mirror inward to unearth our internal images of the world” • In order to change mental model, one must be open to the deficiency in his or her way of viewing the world
  31. 31. Ladder of Inference
  32. 32. Changing Thinking Fold your arms the way you would if you were bored, with one falling over the other. Uncross your arms and fold them again, the other way, with the other arm on top. Image Source: Flickr Creative Commons by CJ Berry
  33. 33. Thinking in Systems “The problems we have created in the world today will not be solved by the level of thinking that created them.” --Albert Einstein Image Source: Flickr Creative Commons, by mansionwb
  34. 34. “Systems thinking is a way of looking at, learning about, and understanding complex situations” (Wilson 2004, p.7) “Systems thinking is a way of seeing and talking about reality that helps us better understand and work with systems to influence the quality of our lives” (Kim 1999, p.2)  Systems thinking is a ‘new way of thinking’ to understand and manage complex problems (Bosch et al. 2007; Cabrera et al. 2008) Definitions of Systems Thinking © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  35. 35. The Torn Net © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  36. 36. © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  37. 37. © Tim Pettry, 2008 Let’s get started
  38. 38. © Tim Pettr y, 2008 Economic crisis! • Due to the recent economic crisis, it has become apparent that our current system of numbers is no longer working. • To address this crisis, a new set of symbols has been created to replace the current numbers 1 – 10. • It is imperative that we learn these new symbols as quickly as possible. • Our world as we know it, depends on each of us to do our best! Click
  39. 39. © Tim Pettr y, 2008 Let’s do it! 1. - 2. - 3. - 4. - 5. - 6. - 7. - 8. - 9. - 10. - X Take 45 seconds to memorize these new symbols for the numbers 1 – 10. 30 seconds left 15 seconds left 54312 That was easy! 45444341423520 Click once when ready.Now wait for 45 seconds.
  40. 40. © Tim Pettr y, 2008 Write down as many of the new symbols as you can remember? Click when ready To check answers
  41. 41. © Tim Pettr y, 2008 1. - 2. - 3. - 4. - 5. - 6. - 7. - 8. - 9. - 10. - X Click to discuss when ready Check your answers
  42. 42. © Tim Pettr y, 2008 Discussion • How many people got all 10 symbols correct? • 9? • 8? • 7? • 6? • 5 and below? • Were you distracted by the countdown on the left? • Are there ever distractions when we are trying to learn? Click
  43. 43. © Tim Pettr y, 2008 Discussion continued • Which symbols do most people get right?  1 – due to repetition 10 – Its different and it represents the Roman numeral “10”  5 – Its different  7 – Its similar to the number 7 • Most people look for a pattern and have difficulty finding it in a short amount of time. • We are looking at the pieces rather than the whole. • This is sometimes referred to as “Silo Thinking” Click
  44. 44. © Tim Pettr y, 2008 Now, for you linear thinkers… 1 2 4 5 6 7 8 93 10 X Does this help? Click When ready, click
  45. 45. © Tim Pettr y, 2008 Let’s think lean! 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 - X Is this radical thinking? So it must be Common Sense! Systems View No, everyone is familiar with this. How many of you thought of this? Lean thinking is all about learning to see how things are connected within an overall system. When ready, click Click The outline around each number represents the new symbol!
  46. 46. Image Source: Waters Foundation
  47. 47. Image Source: Waters Foundation
  48. 48. Image Source: Waters Foundation
  49. 49. Image Source: Waters Foundation
  50. 50. Image Source: Waters Foundation
  51. 51. Image Source: Waters Foundation
  52. 52. Image Source: Waters Foundation
  53. 53. Image Source: Waters Foundation
  54. 54. Image Source: Waters Foundation
  55. 55. Image Source: Waters Foundation
  56. 56. Image Source: Waters Foundation
  57. 57. Image Source: Waters Foundation
  58. 58. Image Source: Waters Foundation
  59. 59. Difficulties and Messes
  60. 60. Modeling Systems “Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.” --George Box (Emeritus Professor of Statistics, University of Wisconsin- Madison) Image Source: Wikipedia
  61. 61. Modeling Systems We are limited in our capacity to form and reform mental models. Systems modeling allows us to move from “what” to “what if” and make our thinking visible The basic building blocks of dynamic models are stocks, flows, and loops
  62. 62. Stocks • Stocks are the foundation of any system and are the elements that you can see, feel, count, or measure • Stocks do not have to be physical
  63. 63. Flows • Stocks change over time through the actions of a flow • A stock is the present memory of the changing flows within the system
  64. 64. Loops • A feedback loop is formed when changes in a stock affect the flows into or out of that same stock • Balancing feedback loops are stability seeking and try to keep a stock at a certain level or within a certain range • Reinforcing feedback loops occur when a system element has the ability to reproduce itself or grow at a constant fraction of itself
  65. 65. Systems Thinking Case Study Crop Damaging by Insects
  66. 66. • When an insect is eating a crop, the conventional response is to spray the crop with a pesticide designed to kill that insect. • Putting aside the limited effectiveness of some pesticides and the water and soil pollution they can cause, imagine a perfect pesticide that kills all of the insects against which it is used and which has no side effects on air, water, or soil. • Is using this pesticide likely to make the farmer or company whose crops are being eaten better off? ReducingCrop Damageby Insects:
  67. 67. ReducingCrop Damageby Insects: Insects Damaging Crops Pesticide Application O If we represent the thinking used by those applying the pesticides, it would look like this: 1. The letter indicates how the two variables are related: an “s” means they change in the same direction - if one goes up then the other goes up, and an “o” means they change in the opposite direction - if one goes up then the other goes down (or vice versa). 2. This diagram is read “a change in the amount of pesticide applied causes the number of insects damaging crops to change in the opposite direction.” 3. The belief being represented here is that “as the amount of pesticide applied increases, the number of insects damaging crops decreases”.
  68. 68. Total number of Insects damaging crop Pesticide Application S O S Number of Insect A Damaging Crop Number of Insect B Number of Insect B Damaging Crop S S O Reducing Crop Damage by Insects:
  69. 69. ReducingCrop Damageby Insects: 4. The problem of crop damage due to insects often does get better - in the short term. 5. Unfortunately, what frequently happens is that in following years the problem of crop damage gets worse and worse and the pesticide that formerly seemed so effective does not seem to help anymore. 6. This is because the insect A that was eating the crops was controlling the population of another insect B, either by preying on it or by competing with it. 7. When the pesticide kills the insects A that were eating the crops, it eliminates the control that those insects were applying on the population of the other insects, insects B). 8. Then the population of the insects B that were being controlled explodes and continue to damage the crops.
  70. 70. So now how do you solve the problem of Insect B damaging the crop? Find the solution….. ReducingCrop Damageby Insects:
  71. 71. Problem Solving: Pest Control Insect “A” Population Insect “B” Population
  72. 72. “Seek and Destroy” Model Is this system really that simple?
  73. 73. Systems Thinking- Strategic Overlook of Organisation
  75. 75. “The nicest thing about not planning is that failure comes as a complete surprise, and is not preceded by a period of worry and depression.” -- John Perton
  76. 76. STRATEGY The word strategy derives from the Greek "στρατηγία" (strategia), "office of general, command, general-ship",  A strategy is a course of action.
  77. 77.  Strategic management  The process of identifying and executing the organization’s mission by matching its capabilities with the demands of its environment. © 2005 Prentice Hall Inc. All rights reserved. 3–92
  78. 78. VISION A general statement of its intended direction that evokes emotional feelings in organization members.
  79. 79. “What are you doing?” “I am cutting wood” “I am building that castle”
  80. 80. Business Mission  Mission  Spells out who the company is, what it does, and where it’s headed. 3–95
  81. 81. SWOT Analysis A SWOT analysis is a strategic planning tool used to evaluate strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. A SWOT analysis informs the goal-setting process and provides a context for future strategic planning discussions. Strengths and weaknesses are internal to an organization. Opportunities and threats originate from outside the organization.
  82. 82. External Analysis  Identify strategic opportunities and threats in the operating environment. Macro-environment National Immediate (Industry)
  83. 83. Internal Analysis  Identify strengths  Quality and quantity of resources available  Distinctive competencies  Identify weaknesses  Inadequate resources  Managerial and organizational deficiencies
  84. 84. Strengths and Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats (SWOT Analysis) Strategic Choice Business Functional Global Corporate SWOT and Strategic Choice
  86. 86. Types of Strategies  Corporate-level strategy  Identifies the portfolio of businesses that, in total, comprise the company and the ways in which these businesses relate to each other.  Diversification strategy implies that the firm will expand by adding new product lines.  Vertical integration strategy means the firm expands by, perhaps, producing its own raw materials, or selling its products direct.  Consolidation strategy reduces the company’s size  Geographic expansion strategy takes the company abroad. 3–101
  87. 87.  Business-level/competitive strategy  Identifies how to build and strengthen the business’s long- term competitive position in the marketplace.  Cost leadership: the enterprise aims to become the low-cost leader in an industry.  Differentiation: a firm seeks to be unique in its industry along dimensions that are widely valued by buyers.  Focus: a firm seeks to carve out a market niche, and compete by providing a product or service customers can get in no other way. 3–102 Types of Strategies cont-
  88. 88.  Functional strategies  Identify the basic courses of action that each department will pursue in order to help the business attain its competitive goals. 3–103 Types of Strategies cont-
  89. 89. IfyouFailToPlan, YouPlantoFail.
  90. 90. Systems Thinking: Tools & Concepts Context: messy situaDon YOU…The Observer
  91. 91. Always think SUDA!
  92. 92. Systems Theory + Practice
  93. 93. Unlock the power to think differently
  94. 94. Systems Thinking Vs Other types of thinking
  95. 95. Diagramming- Sensing
  96. 96. OptimistInternational 146 MIND MAPPING • Definition : A visual picture of a group of ideas, • concepts or issues. • Purpose : • Unblock our thinking. • See an entire idea or several ideas on one sheet of paper. • See how ideas relate to one another. • Look at things in a new and different way. • Look at an idea in depth.
  97. 97. What are mind maps?  Mind maps are not spider diagrams.  A mind map is a diagram used to represent themes of understanding linked a central key word or idea  Mind maps are, by definition, a graphical method of taking notes. Their visual basis helps one to distinguish words or ideas, often with colours and symbols.  They generally take a hierarchical or tree branch format, with ideas branching into their subsections
  98. 98. Key features of mind maps  The process starts around a central idea or picture  Key themes are established through branches with sub branches  Key terminology is used  Single words or phrases  Themes are connected through colours  Images reinforce meaning  It allows you to freely associate and link ideas
  99. 99. Not just pretty pictures Mind mapping is about the ability to analyse and make connections, to use knowledge effectively, to solve problems and think effectively. It requires skill to search out meaning and impose structure. It goes beyond learning information by rote and equips students to deal systematically with problems and adopt a critical attitude to argument and information.
  100. 100. How to create a mind map  Start with a large piece of paper in a landscape position.  Create a large colourful central image  Create main branches for ideas in different colours ( use the same colour for sub branches)  Use key words only and adapt the size of the word based on importance
  101. 101. Mind Mapping Basics
  102. 102. How to create a mind map  Use images that remind you of the key topics ( you don’t have to be an artist)  Use arrows and symbols to connect ideas  Leave space to add to your mind map  Find a style which works for you.
  103. 103. Optimist International 161 Mind Mapping Exercise • Over-sized blank sheet of paper. • Select word, phrase or problem statement to serve as a focus for discussion. • Print it in the middle of the paper. Enclose it in a box or oval. • Let a word pop out of your mind. Print it anywhere on the paper. • Underline it and connect the line with the problem statement (or key phrase or word) you are working. • Record the next idea and connect it to original focus point or the prior thought. • Continue printing and connecting words. 1. Initial Tumble of Ideas. Think freely!!
  104. 104. Optimist International 162 Mind Mapping Exercise EXAMPLE
  105. 105. Optimist International 163 Mind Mapping Exercise -- Helpful Hints  Keep your printing large and easy to read.  Feel free to use symbols and or pictures.  Have some fun using different colors. A 
  106. 106. Rich picture Dr Niraj Thurairajah Birmingham City University
  107. 107. Overview • What is a rich picture? • Elements of rich picture • Techniques to create good rich picture • Examples • Your activity
  108. 108. What is a rich picture? • A cartoon-like representation that identifies all the stakeholders, their concerns, and some of the structure underlying the work context (Monk and Howard, 1998) • A pictorial summary of the actual situation in the “systems world” based on inquiries or observations of the “real world” (Patching, 1990)
  109. 109. Components of rich picture • Represent the following • Structure • Process • Concerns
  110. 110. Structure • Aspect of the work context that are slow to change. Such as; • Stages of construction • Firms/ organisations • Geographical localities • Stakeholders • People
  111. 111. Source: Monk and Howard, 1998
  112. 112. Process • Refers to the transformations that occur in the process of the work. Such as the flow of • Information/data • Goods and services • Other resources
  113. 113. Source: Monk and Howard, 1998
  114. 114. Concerns • Perspectives/viewpoints of each individual’s/firm’s motivation • Captures different perspectives of the theme • Identifies tensions between stakeholders, a useful preliminary step to identifying the conflicting concerns and how they may be resolved.
  115. 115. Source: Monk and Howard, 1998
  116. 116. Dos and don’ts • Include structure • Include process • Include concerns • Use any pictorial or textual device that suits • Include only enough structure to allow you to record the process and concerns. • Do not attempt to record all the details of process; a broad brush approach is usually all that is needed • Present the concern in a thought bubble • There is no correct way of drawing a rich picture. There are as many styles as analysts and the same analyst will find different styles useful in different situations Element Comment
  117. 117. Rich picture of the construction of the Humber Bridge (adapted from Stewart and Fortune, 1994)
  118. 118. Development project: Rich Picture • Produce a rich picture of how the different professions, stakeholders and processes fit into a typical construction process. • For your activity, consider rich diagram as a pictorial representation of ‘construction process’ that identifies situations, stake holders, their actions/ interaction and the outcome over time. • Due to the progressive nature of construction projects, this mapping activity can be done in a chronological manner • Acknowledge the complexity and characteristics of a typical construction project
  119. 119. Problem Resolution
  120. 120. Decision Making, Learning and Creativity
  121. 121. 7- 186 Decision Making • Decision Making • The process by which managers respond to opportunities and threats that confront them by analyzing options and making determinations about specific organizational goals and courses of action.
  122. 122. SWOT Strengths Weaknesses 1. What are the advantages of your plan? 2.What will go well? Consider this from your point of view; be realistic. 1. What could be improved? 2. What is done badly? 3. Should anything be avoided? Again, be realistic. Opportunities Threats 1. What are the good chances that arise from your course of action? 2. What good things happens as a result of your decision? 1. What obstacles might you face? 2. What might other people want you to do? 187
  123. 123. 7- 188 The Nature of Managerial Decision Making • Decisions in response to opportunities • occurs when managers respond to ways to improve organizational performance to benefit customers, employees, and other stakeholder groups • Decisions in response to threats • events inside or outside the organization are adversely affecting organizational performance
  124. 124. 7- 189 Decision Making Programmed Decision • Routine, virtually automatic decision making that follows established rules or guidelines. • Managers have made the same decision many times before • Little ambiguity involved
  125. 125. 7- 190 Decision Making Non-Programmed Decisions • Nonroutine decision made in response to unusual or novel opportunities and threats. • The are no rules to follow since the decision is new. • Decisions are made based on information, and a manager’s intuition, and judgment.
  126. 126. 7- 191 Decision Making • Intuition • feelings, beliefs, and hunches that come readily to mind, require little effort and information gathering and result in on-the-spot decisions
  127. 127. 7- 192 Decision Making • Reasoned judgment • decisions that take time and effort to make and result from careful information gathering, generation of alternatives, and evaluation of alternatives
  128. 128. 7- 193 Question? Which decision model assumes the decision maker can identify and evaluate all possible alternatives? A. Neo-classical B. Classical C. Administrative D. practical
  129. 129. 7- 194 The Classical Model Classical Model of Decision Making • A rigid model of decision making that assumes the decision maker can identify and evaluate all possible alternatives and their consequences and rationally choose the most appropriate course of action. • Optimum decision • The most appropriate decision in light of what managers believe to be the most desirable future consequences for their organization.
  130. 130. 7- 195 TheClassicalModelof Decision Making Figure 7.1
  131. 131. 7- 196 The Administrative Model Administrative Model of Decision Making • An approach to decision making that explains why decision making is inherently uncertain and risky and why managers can rarely make decisions in the manner prescribed by the classical model
  132. 132. 7- 197 The Administrative Model Administrative Model of Decision Making • Bounded rationality • There is a large number of alternatives and available information can be so extensive that managers cannot consider it all. • Decisions are limited by people’s cognitive limitations. • Incomplete information • Because of risk and uncertainty, ambiguity, and time constraints
  133. 133. 7- 198 Why InformationIs Incomplete Figure 7.2
  134. 134. 7- 199 Causes of Incomplete Information • Risk • Present when managers know the possible outcomes of a particular course of action and can assign probabilities to them. • Uncertainty • Probabilities cannot be given for outcomes and the future is unknown.
  135. 135. 7- 200 Causes of Incomplete Information Ambiguous Information • Information whose meaning is not clear allowing it to be interpreted in multiple or conflicting ways. Figure 7.3 Young Woman or Old Woman
  136. 136. 7- 201 Causes of Incomplete Information • Time constraints and information costs • managers have neither the time nor money to search for all possible alternatives and evaluate potential consequences
  137. 137. 7- 202 Causes of Incomplete Information • Satisficing • Searching for and choosing an acceptable, or satisfactory response to problems and opportunities, rather than trying to make the best decision.
  138. 138. 7- 203 Causes of Incomplete Information • Managers explore a limited number of options and choose an acceptable decision rather than the optimum decision. • This is the typical response of managers when dealing with incomplete information.
  139. 139. 7- 204 Six Steps in DecisionMaking Figure 7.4
  140. 140. 7- 205 Decision Making Steps Step 1. Recognize Need for a Decision • Sparked by an event such as environment changes. • Managers must first realize that a decision must be made. Step 2. Generate Alternatives • Managers must develop feasible alternative courses of action. • If good alternatives are missed, the resulting decision is poor. • It is hard to develop creative alternatives, so managers need to look for new ideas.
  141. 141. 7- 206 Decision Making Steps Step 3. Evaluate Alternatives • What are the advantages and disadvantages of each alternative? • Managers should specify criteria, then evaluate.
  142. 142. 7- 207 Decision Making Steps Criteria Legality Is the alternative legal and will not violate any domestic and international laws or government regulations? Ethicalness Is the alternative ethical and will not bring harm stakeholders unnecessarily? Economic Feasibility Can organization’s performance goals sustain this alternative? Practicality Does the management have the capabilities and resources required to implement the alternative? Step 3. Evaluate alternatives
  143. 143. 7- 208 Figure 7.5 General Criteria for Evaluating Possible Courses of Action
  144. 144. 7- 209 Decision Making Steps Step 4. Choose Among Alternatives • Rank the various alternatives and make a decision • Managers must be sure all the information available is brought to bear on the problem or issue at hand
  145. 145. 7- 210 Decision Making Steps Step 5. Implement Chosen Alternative • Managers must now carry out the alternative. • Often a decision is made and not implemented. Step 6. Learn From Feedback • Managers should consider what went right and wrong with the decision and learn for the future. • Without feedback, managers do not learn from experience and will repeat the same mistake over.
  146. 146. 7- 211 Discussion Question? Which step in the decision making process is the most important? A. Generating alternatives B. Choosing an alternative C. Evaluating alternatives D. Learning from feedback
  147. 147. 7- 212 Feedback Procedure 1. Compare what actually happened to what was expected to happen as a result of the decision 2. Explore why any expectations for the decision were not met 3. Derive guidelines that will help in future decision making
  148. 148. 7- 215 Types of Cognitive Biases • Prior Hypothesis Bias • Allowing strong prior beliefs about a relationship between variables to influence decisions based on these beliefs even when evidence shows they are wrong. • Representativeness • The decision maker incorrectly generalizes a decision from a small sample or a single incident.
  149. 149. 7- 216 Types of Cognitive Biases • Illusion of Control • The tendency to overestimates one’s own ability to control activities and events. • Escalating Commitment • Committing considerable resources to project and then committing more even if evidence shows the project is failing.
  150. 150. 7- 217 Team Decision Making • Superior to individual making • Choices less likely to fall victim to bias • Able to draw on combined skills of group members • Improve ability to generate feasible alternatives
  151. 151. 7- 218 team Decision Making • Allows managers to process more information • Managers affected by decisions agree to cooperate
  152. 152. 7- 219 team Decision Making • Potential Disadvantages • Can take much longer than individuals to make decisions • Can be difficult to get two or more managers to agree because of different interests and preferences • Can be undermined by biases
  153. 153. 7- 220 team Decision Making Groupthink • Pattern of faulty and biased decision making that occurs in groups whose members strive for agreement among themselves at the expense of accurately assessing information relevant to a decision
  154. 154. 7- 221 Improved team Decision Making • Devil’s Advocacy • Critical analysis of a preferred alternative to ascertain its strengths and weaknesses before it is implemented • One member of the group who acts as the devil’s advocate by critiquing the way the group identified alternatives and pointing out problems with the alternative selection.
  155. 155. 7- 222 Improved team Decision Making • Dialectical Inquiry • Two different groups are assigned to the problem and each group is responsible for evaluating alternatives and selecting one of them • Top managers then hear each group present their alternatives and each group can critique the other. • Promote Diversity • Increasing the diversity in a group may result in consideration of a wider set of alternatives.
  156. 156. 7- 223 Devil’sAdvocacyand DialecticalInquiry Figure 7.7
  157. 157. 238
  158. 158. A Butterfly’s Lesson ”One day, a small opening appeared in a cocoon; a man sat and watched for the butterfly for several hours as it struggled to force its body through that little hole. 239
  159. 159. Then, it seems to stop making any progress. It appeared as if it had gotten as far as it could and it could not go any further. 240
  160. 160. So the man decided to help the butterfly: he took a pair of scissors and opened the cocoon. The butterfly then emerged easily. But it had a withered body, it was tiny and shriveled wings. 241
  161. 161. The man continued to watch because he expected that, at any moment, the wings would open, enlarge and expand, to be able to support the butterfly’s body, and become firm. 242
  162. 162. Neither happened! In fact, the butterfly spent the rest of its life crawling around with a withered body and shriveled wings. It never was able to fly. 243
  163. 163. What the man, in his kindness and his goodwill did not understand was that the restricting cocoon and the struggle required for the butterfly to get through the tiny opening, were God’s way of forcing fluid from the body of the butterfly into its wings, so that it would be ready for flight once it achieved its freedom from the cocoon. 244
  164. 164. Sometimes, struggles are exactly what we need in our life. If God allowed us to go through our life without any obstacles, it would cripple us. We would not be as strong as we could have been. Never been able to fly. 245
  165. 165. What is a Problem? Desired Condition Actual Condition - Problem= Want Have- Problem= Subject Definition 246
  166. 166. What do you do for a one-time problem? Monday Subject Definition 247
  167. 167. Tuesday ThursdayWednesday Friday Saturday Problem But What If the Problem Recurs? Subject Definition 248
  168. 168.  What, specifically, is a problem? Problems can be classified in three ways:  Problems that have already happened  Problems that lie ahead  Problems you want to prevent from happening Problem Solving: Defined 249
  169. 169. There are three ways to approach problems.  You can stall or delay until a decision is no longer necessary, or until it has become an even greater problem.  You can make a snap decision, off the top of your head, with little or no thinking or logic.  You can use a professional approach and solve problems based on sound decision- making practices. Approach to Problem Solving 250
  170. 170.  Think of an individual that you think is good at solving problems.  Describe the traits, characteristics, and behaviors that made the individual a good problem solver. The Ideal Problem Solver 251
  171. 171. Some abilities of Good Problem Solvers: • Keen Observation • Establish links, similarities and differences • Look at the other side • Transcend conventional rules • Combine two elements to produce new ideas 252
  172. 172. In order to find sustainable solutions to our problems, we will:  Encourage everyone to participate.  Encourage new ideas without criticism, since new concepts come from outside our normal perception.  Build on each other’s ideas.  Whenever possible, use data to facilitate problem solving.  Remember that solving problems is a creative process— new ideas and new understanding often result. Steps to Problem Solving 253
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  178. 178.  Not my problem.  Don’t ask me.  What now? Some well-meaning employees can’t seem to mature into independent problem solvers.  Straight liner. Straight liners know how to solve straightforward problems.  Creative problem solver. 261
  179. 179. Problem Solving within an individual Exercise: Problem Solving Styles Questionnaire 262
  180. 180. The Problem-Solving-Decision-Making Model 263
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  183. 183.  PURPOSE:  To develop the awareness and the skills necessary to solve problems creatively. 273
  184. 184. 274  The creative person uses information to form new ideas.  The real key to creative problem solving is what you do with the knowledge.  Creative problem solving requires an attitude that allows you to search for new ideas and use your knowledge and experience.  Change perspective and use knowledge to make the ordinary extraordinary and the usual commonplace.
  185. 185. 276 “Creative problem solving is - looking at the same thing as everyone else and thinking something different.” Adapted from a famous quote from a former Nobel prize winner, Albert Szent-Gyorgi.
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  188. 188.  Why don’t we think creatively more often?  What are the barriers that get in our way? 279
  189. 189. 280  Time  Why change?  Usually don’t need to be creative  Habit  Routine  Haven’t been taught to be creative What are some other barriers that get in our way?
  190. 190. 281 Mental blocks are reasons (attitudes) why we don’t “think something different.”
  191. 191. 282 1. The _______ answer. 2. That’s not _________. 3. __________ the rules. 4. Be ______________. 5. ________ is frivolous. 6. That’s not my _____. 7. ________ ambiguity. 8. Don’t be _________. 9. __________is wrong. 10. I’m not __________.
  192. 192. 283 1. The right answer. Only one?
  193. 193. 284 1. The right answer. 2. That’s not logical.
  194. 194. 285 1. The right answer. 2. That’s not logical. 3. Follow the rules. Why rules should be challenged: 1. We make rules based on reasons that make a lot of sense. 2. We follow these rules. 3. Time passes, and things change. 4. The original reasons for the generation of these rules may no longer exist, but because the rules are still in place, we continue to follow them.
  195. 195. 286 1. The right answer. 2. That’s not logical. 3. Follow the rules. 4. Be practical.
  196. 196. 287 1. The right answer. 2. That’s not logical. 3. Follow the rules. 4. Be practical. 5. Play is frivolous. “When do you get your best ideas?”
  197. 197. 288 6. That’s not my area.
  198. 198. 289 6. That’s not my area. 7. Avoid ambiguity. AMBIGUITY
  199. 199. 290 6. That’s not my area. 7. Avoid ambiguity. 8. Don’t be foolish.
  200. 200. 291 6. That’s not my area. 7. Avoid ambiguity. 8. Don’t be foolish. 9. To err is wrong.
  201. 201. 292 6. That’s not my area. 7. Avoid ambiguity. 8. Don’t be foolish. 9. To err is wrong. 10. I’m not creative.
  202. 202. 293 How can we be more creative? Jot down at least 3 ideas that come to your mind.
  203. 203. 294 1. Start small trying to discover new ways to be creative, ___________. 2. __________ to abandon the old, obsolete ways of doing things and explore new ways. 3. It is not possible to change the way we think about everything. ________ in which to try creative thinking techniques. 4. Understand that creative thinking requires __________, but it is worth it! 5. Remember that creative thinking is both _______ and__________!!!
  204. 204. 295 6. _________ on what you can reasonably do. Trying to do too many things at once compromises the effort and may take away from the results. 7. _________creative thinking for today as well as tomorrow. 8. Include other people in the creative thinking process with you. __________fosters creative thinking. 9. Include _______ and ______ in your creative thinking process as well as ___________. 10.Keep ________________.
  205. 205. 296 1. What if…? 2. How can we improve…? 3. How will the Optimist Member and/or the community benefit? 4. Are we forgetting anything? 5. What’s the next step?
  206. 206. 297 6. What can we do better…? 7. What do you think about…? 8. What should we add? 9. What should we eliminate? 10. What other ideas do you have...?
  207. 207. 298 BRAINSTORMING Purpose: To generate a large number of ideas in a short period of time.
  208. 208.  Brainstorming is a technique of getting a large number of ideas from a group of people in a short time.  It can used effectively in numerous situations and has relevance for us in problem solving: to identify problems, sort out causes from effects, and come up with creative solutions. 299
  209. 209. Brainstorming • Avoid criticism • Free wheel • Go for quantity • Record • Don’t Judge your team mates • Incubate 300
  210. 210.  Listing:  Listing of ideas as soon as they are said.  Word Association  Finding a new idea or slogan through associating words  Clustering or Mapping  Clustering, like free-word association, is a brainstorming technique to help you spill out flashes of inspiration in unplanned relationships.  Free Writing  Free writing can be guided or unguided. It is a good technique for bringing ideas to the surface 301
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  212. 212. Steps to Brainstorming • Review guidelines • Warm up • Volunteer to write ideas • Be a cheerleader and make it fun • Encourage wild ideas • Incubate 303
  213. 213. Case Study You are the manager of a division and you hear from various sources that one of your Supervisors is pushing employees beyond their limit. He never listens to what the employees have to say, is extremely authoritarian and as a result the morale of the group is very low. 304
  214. 214. Root cause analysis is the process of finding the underlying reasons that is causing a problem. What is Root Cause Analysis? Fixing the root cause will permanently remove the problem. Subject Definition 305
  215. 215. 5 Why Technique applied to Root Cause Analysis 306
  216. 216. It is: • Root Cause Analysis tool • Part of the Problem Solving Techniques • The outcome of the 5 Why’s analysis is identifying the reason(s) why the problem originated It is not: • A complicated technique • The resolution of the problem itself What is (or is not) 5 Why’s?Subject Definition 307
  217. 217. The Why Graph Subject Definition 308
  218. 218. • Why did the machine stop? • Why there was an overload? • Why was it not lubricated sufficiently? • Why was it not pumping sufficiently • Why was the shaft worn out? Five Why 309
  219. 219. Five Why - helps find point of origin • Why - keeps running out of parts • Why - low inventory held • Why - parts listed as ‘low turnover’ • Why - stores not told of higher usage • Why - communication breakdown Problem: A worker is idle for long periods 310
  220. 220.  What are some ways that we can think outside the box to reach a creative solution?  What can we do to maximize the effects of brainstorming (before, during, and after)?  Use the random word method  Don’t re-invent the wheel! Thinking Outside the Box 312
  221. 221. “Disneyland will never be completed, as long as there is imagination left in the world.” Walt Disney 313
  222. 222. Food for Thought “If you don't ask the right questions, you don't get the right answers. A question asked in the right way often points to its own answer. Asking questions is the ABC of diagnosis. Only the inquiring mind solves problems.” Edward Hodnett 314
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