The data showed that a social rupture was on the way in Ferguson, Missouri. What would radical data transparency do to our ability to predict and avert crisis?

1. DATA, TRENDS & ACTIVISM:
INCREMENTAL STEPS TOWARD
SYSTEMIC CHANGE

2. Future Intelligence

3. Ferguson was a
knowledge
management failure.

4. Amount of fines and fees collected in Ferguson,
USD Millions, 2010-2015
0
0.7
1.4
2.1
2.8
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
$1.00
$2.63
$2.46
$2.11
$1.41$1.38
Source: U.S. Department of Justice
Point of
social rupture

5. Map of “SuperZIP” wealth clustering in Metro STL
Locus of social
rupture

6. Percentage of Missouri population with employer-sponsored
health insurance coverage
0.0%
26.7%
53.3%
80.0%
2000 2010
62%
76%
Source: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Service/HHS
Decline of social
assump3ons

7. Percentage of Americans with employer-sponsored
insurance, by job type
Source: Economic Policy Institute
http://www.epi.org/publication/bp353-employer-sponsored-health-insurance-coverage/
0
0.175
0.35
0.525
0.7
White-collar Blue-collar Service
26%
51.5%
60%
26.1%
52.7%
60.3%
29.5%
53.9%
61.9%
33.9%
59.0%
65.0%
2000 2007 2009 2010

8. Percentage of Americans with employer-sponsored insurance,
by race
Source: Economic Policy Institute,
http://www.epi.org/publication/bp353-employer-sponsored-health-insurance-coverage/
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
White Black Latino
39.2%
45.2%
66.9%
42.1%
52.6%
71.2%
47.3%
57.5%
72.6%
2000 2007 2010
Similar shi6s
across
demographics

9. Workplace Mortality by Sector
Deaths per 100,000 FTE hours worked
0
22.5
45
67.5
90
Education Architecture Arts Food Welding Police Mining Trash Roofing Pilots Fishing Logging
86.5
63.4
50.6
38.7
33
24
10.6
7.3
4
1.91.20.3
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/iif/oshcfoi1.htm
Hidden reality that
defies myth

10. Total U.S. enrollment in SNAP, aka Food Stamps
(in thousands)
2500
12000
21500
31000
40500
50000
1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture,
http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/supplemental-nutrition-assistance-program-snap
Booming 1980s
Program launch
Recession under
Bush 41 and Clinton
Dot Com 1.0
Great Recession,
nearly doubled
enrollments

11. Missouri enrollment in SNAP, aka Food Stamps
750000
800000
850000
900000
950000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
858,415
929,942
947,888943,088
901,349
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture,
http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/supplemental-nutrition-assistance-program-snap

12. Racial gaps in household wealth, 1983 -2013
Source: Pew Research Center, U.S. Federal Reserve,
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/12/12/racial-wealth-gaps-great-recession/

13. Wages as a share of gross domestic product
(versus finance, interest income)
Source: U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED Database
0.42
0.44
0.46
0.48
0.50
0.52
1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Post-Cold War boom
to Dot Com 1.0
Market crash and
post-9/11 recession
Temporary
housing boom
Manufacturing and
union jobs dominate
Financial sector
ascendant
The Great
Recession

14. Percentage of U.S. population uninsured, by age,
2013
0
7.5
15
22.5
30
Under 19 19-25 26-34 35-44 45-64 65+
Source: U.S. Census

15. Total number of Americans without health insurance,
1990-2013 (in millions)
Source: U.S. Census
20
27.5
35
42.5
50
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Dot Com One,
roaring economy
Crash of 2008
Affordable
Care Act
goes into effect
Housing “boom”

17. Impact-Probability Matrix
High Impact
High
Probability
Low Impact
Low
Probability
Major Disruption
Flash in the Pan
Strategic Shift
Incremental Change

18. WWW.COMPETITIVEFUTURES.COM
WWW.ERICGARLAND.CO
@ERICGARLAND