1. The document discusses energy modeling work done in Borneo to assess alternatives to large-scale energy projects proposed by the government. 2. Modeling showed that even under high growth assumptions, solar, biomass, and existing natural gas and coal could meet future energy demand without requiring large new dams. 3. Distributed renewable energy solutions like micro-hydro were found to be more affordable for rural communities compared to diesel, supporting rural energy access and autonomy.

1. November 16, 2016
Rebekah G. Shirley
Research Fellow, Energy and Resources Group
University of California, Berkeley
Growing Clean Energy Access in Rural Communities
in SIDS: The Role of Data and Analysis

2. http://www.rael.berkeley.edu
RENEWABLE AND APPROPRIATE ENERGY LABORATORY
An Independent Energy Research Facility at the
Energy and Resource Group, University of California, Berkeley
http://erg.berkeley.edu/
http://erg.berkeley.edu/people/shirley-rebekah/
http://rael.berkeley.edu/project/sustainable-energy-for-sarawak-sabah/
Focus: Design and dissemination of low-
carbon energy systems in industrialized
and developing countries based on use-
inspired basic research and
interdisciplinary approaches to analysis.

3. Spatial models that integrate
utility, resource, LULC data,
demographic data for MCDA and
identifying investment opps
e.g. MapRE
Power system simulation
and optimization tools
(large and small scale) to
inform project planning
and grid expansion
e.g. SWITCH
RAEL
Policy Analysis Tools
Integrate robust and credible Cost/Benefit analysis
with policy analysis, and finance and energy system
models to inform policy
e.g. Cool Climate Network
Track Record
› SWITCH: Long range simulation
tool (WECC, China, S. America
› Cool Climate: Carbon footprinting +
evaluates system costs of different
GHG reduction targets for CA
› MapRE: Spatial modeling tool
developed with LBNL to indentify
high priority investment for RE
› Built green job and carbon tools for
EDIN Program
RENEWABLE AND APPROPRIATE ENERGY LABORATORY
A blend of capabilities to support energy decision making by
government and planning agencies in low carbon energy planning

4. WECC
Chile
East
Africa
India
China
East
Malaysia
Current Low-Carbon Modeling Efforts
Kosovo
Cntl Am/
Caribbean
*New profiles can be built to analyze region-specific challenges
RENEWABLE AND APPROPRIATE ENERGY LABORATORY
Broad geographic focus on developing countries in South and
Southeast Asia, East Africa, Central America and the Caribbean

5. Carbon Footprint
Analysis / Green Job
Estimation
Cost Benefit Analysis
Power System
Simulation/Modeling
THE SUSTAINABLE ISLANDS WORKING GROUP
Research and Modeling in the Caribbean, Atlantic and Pacific Islands

6. 6
BORNEO, SOUTH EAST ASIA:
CONTEMPORARY HYDRO DEVELOPMENT FOR INDUSTRY (20GW)

7. 7

8. 8

9. MEGA-DAMS VS RURAL AUTONOMY AND DEVELOPMENT
“Dams could intensify the complexity of resource demands for energy,
water, flood prevention, and food supply which emanate from users and
stakeholders with multiple social backgrounds and interests.”
9

10. What are feasible alternative energy mixes for Sarawak that meet
future energy demand for the local population given priorities of
cost, human and environmental impact?
• What is the potential for renewable resources to satisfy (a) rural
energy needs and (b) utility scale needs?
• What are the implications of different energy market scenarios
on optimal generation mix?
• How can ecological impacts of energy alternatives be
measured/estimated in a data constrained context?
• How can this information filter into the assessment and
discussion of energy alternatives?
RESEARCH MOTIVATION
Supporting rural energy access and autonomy: the integration
of bottom-up solutions into local development planning

11. Rebekah Shirley, Daniel Kammen, Energy planning and development in Malaysian Borneo: Assessing the benefits of distributed technologies
versus large scale energy mega-projects, Energy Strategy Reviews, Volume 8, July 2015, Pages 15-29
Justin Kitzes, Rebekah Shirley, “Estimating biodiversity impacts without field surveys: A case study in northern Borneo,” Ambio, pp. 1–10, 2015
Rebekah Shirley and Daniel Kammen, Kampung Capacity: Assessing the Potential for Distributed Energy Resources to Satisfy Local Demand in
East Malaysia, RAEL Report 2014
PUBLICATIONS ON ENERGY ALTERNATIVES AND IMPACT ESTIMATION
Cost-competitive large scale energy alternatives; New methods for
estimating biodiversity impact; Rural energy access opportunities

12. 1. Current energy plans may be an overbuild of needed capacity based on
economic projections.
•
•
•
Historical and Predicted Demand
Demand Growth Scenarios
Generation(GWh)
Rebekah Shirley, Daniel Kammen, Energy planning and development in Malaysian
Borneo: Assessing the benefits of distributed technologies versus large scale energy
mega-projects, Energy Strategy Reviews, Volume 8, July 2015, Pages 15-29

13. SIMULATION OF THE BORNEO GRID (PLEXOS), SOUTH EAST ASIA
Using local data to identify alternative least cost capacity expansion
options and supporting government decision making processes
Rebekah Shirley, Daniel Kammen, Energy planning and development in Malaysian Borneo: Assessing the benefits of
distributed technologies versus large scale energy mega-projects, Energy Strategy Reviews, Volume 8, July 2015, Pages 15-29
2. Even under
high-growth
assumptions,
Solar PV and
Biomass Waste in
addition to
Existing Natural
Gas and Coal meet
future energy
demand.

14. 14

15. 15
3. Diesel costs: village households pay
3x Urban households for electricity
(0.34USD/kWh vs 0.1USD/kWh).
Micro-hydro (Cap: 1300 USD/kW; LCOE:
0.15 USD/kWh) technologies are more
affordable than diesel.
Rural energy solutions support rural
autonomy and support resistance.

16. 16

17. 4. Sustainable energy futures that meet multiple stakeholder objectives
are possible for Borneo. Can new science support inclusive planning?

18. 4. Sustainable energy futures that meet multiple stakeholder objectives
are possible for Borneo. Can new science support inclusive planning?

20. Indigenous Summit on Environment
and Rivers (WISER BARAM 2015)
2nd Anniversary of the Long Lama Blockade

21. Kampung Buayan, Sabah
Long Lawen, Belaga, Sarawak
Long Samadoh, Sarawak
Kampung Babalitan, Sabah

23. “The gazette extinguishing
the native rights of
ownership for the land
earmarked for the dam
under Sarawak land Code
Section 5 (3) & (4)
[published 5 Sep 23, 2013
and 26 Jan 2015] has
been officially repealed.
The gazette revocation
was published in the
Sarawak Government
Gazette on the 18th of
February 2016.”
Free Malaysia Today News, April 1, 2016

24. MUCHAS GRACIAS!
Thank you to our SIDS partners:
The Borneo Project
The Bruno Manser Fund
The Rainforest Foundation
The Organization of American States
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory
The United Nations Department for Economic and Social Affairs
Direct further questions to:
rebekah.shirley@berkeley.edu
Find more on this work at:
https://rael.berkeley.edu/project/low-carbon-solutions-for-sustainable-islands/
or https://rael.berkeley.edu/people/shirley-rebekah/

25. THE PARIS AGREEMENT: IMPLICATIONS FOR SIDS
“Global 2°C goal impossible without dramatic limits in future
emissions from the developing nations, climate experts say”
Cho (2015). Understanding the Paris Climate Accord and Its Implications. Earth Institute, Columbia University

26. Question: What alternatives does modeling show exist wrt reliability, cost and impact?
How cost competitive are different generation mixes?
Tool: Commercial Capacity Expansion Model – PLEXOS
Data: (a) Historical and Predicated Peak and Average Demand - National Planning and
Implementation Committee for Electricity Supply (JPPET), SEB, MEC); (b) Primary Energy
Resource Availability – Global Data Sets, Government Agencies; (c) Cost Information,
Emissions Data – Government Agencies
Historical and Predicted Demand Demand Growth Scenarios
WHAT ARE ALTERNATIVES TO LARGE-SCALE ENERGY SUPPLY?
26

27. Wilmar Plantations, 2013
•
•
•
Data Sources:
NASA Surface meteorology and Solar Energy Resource
Resource Boards (Timber Board, Palm Oil Board), Site Visits and SEB for Biomass
Sarawak Integrated Water Resource Department (Hydrometric Data)
Monthly Peak and Minimum Energy Outputs - Department of Irrigation and Drainage Data
Collecting Data on Resource Availability
2.4 GW Bakun Dam
27

28. SPATIAL MODELING FOR DATA LIMITED CONTEXTS, BORNEO
Combining top-down and bottom-up spatial methods to estimate
biodiversity impacts of energy project land use footprints
Table 1. Showing Number of Species Affected and Estimated Number of Individuals Lost for SCORE Dams
Hydroelectric Dam Status
Reservoir
Area (km2)
Number of
Species Affected
Total Number
Individuals Lost
(Millions)
Number of
Species Affected
Total Number
Individuals Lost
(Millions)
Bakun Operational since 2011 701 302 1.75 142 55.09
Murum Being inundated 242 312 0.61 147 19.55
Baram Under Construction 414 318 1.04 162 35.52
Birds Mammals
Justin Kitzes, Rebekah Shirley, “Estimating biodiversity impacts without field surveys: A case study in northern Borneo,” Ambio, pp. 1–10, 2015

29. Caribbean Center for Green Technology – UVI Drs. Hall, McKayle, Archibald, Kammen, Kao (Confidential / Progress for DOE / NREL reference) 12
July, 2010
USVI HOUSEHOLD CARBON CALCULATOR
Personalizing education and awareness on sustainability and climate
change and simple monitoring tools for government agencies
http://coolclimate.berkeley.edu/
In collaboration with NREL, USVI Ministry of
Energy, University of the Virgin Islands
Based on the Cool Climate Carbon Footprint
Calculator developed at RAEL
Expenditure Data from the 2005 USVI and 2008
US Consumer Expenditure Survey and Consumer
Price Index Data
Emissions Factors
• Utilities: Electricity, Water, Gas, and Waste
based on local Utility data
• Food/Goods and Services: based on EIO-LCA
data and local distribution data
• Transportation: based on EIO-LCA data for
vehicle manufacture, local data on taxi, ferry,
aircraft and private vehicle use and standard
vehicle characteristics
http://www.eiolca.net/

30. Work-hrs per
year
2000
CapacityFactor
Equipmentlifetime
(years)
Employment
Components
Average Employment Over Life of Facility
Total jobs/MWp
Total
jobs/MWa
Total person-yrs/GWh
Energy
Technology
Source of
Numbers
CIM
(person
-years/
MWp)
O&M
(jobs/
MWp)
Fuel
extract’n
& process
(person-
yrs/GWh)
CIM
O&M
and
fuel
proc
ess-
ing
CIM
O&M
and
fuel
proce
ss-
ing
CIM
O&M
and
fuel
proc
ess-
ing
Total Avg
Biomass 1 EPRI 2001 85% 40 4.29 1.53 0.00 0.11 1.53 0.13 1.80 0.01 0.21 0.22
0.21
Biomass 2 REPP2001 85% 40 8.50 0.24 0.13 0.21 1.21 0.25 1.42 0.03 0.16 0.19
Geothermal 1 WGA 2005 90% 40 6.43 1.79 0.00 0.16 1.79 0.18 1.98 0.02 0.23 0.25
0.25Geothermal 2 CALPIRG 2002 90% 40 17.50 1.70 0.00 0.44 1.70 0.49 1.89 0.06 0.22 0.27
Geothermal 3 EPRI 2001 90% 40 4.00 1.67 0.00 0.10 1.67 0.11 1.86 0.01 0.21 0.22
Landfill Gas 1 CALPIRG 2002 85% 40 21.30 7.80 0.00 0.53 7.80 0.63 9.18 0.07 1.05 1.12
0.72
Landfill Gas 2 EPRI 2001 85% 40 3.71 2.28 0.00 0.09 2.28 0.11 2.68 0.01 0.31 0.32
Small Hydro EPRI 2001 55% 40 5.71 1.14 0.00 0.14 1.14 0.26 2.07 0.03 0.24 0.27 0.27
Solar PV 1 EPIA 2006 20% 25 37.00 1.00 0.00 1.48 1.00 7.40 5.00 0.84 0.57 1.42
0.87Solar PV 2 REPP 2006 20% 25 32.34 0.37 0.00 1.29 0.37 6.47 1.85 0.74 0.21 0.95
Solar PV 3 EPRI 2001 20% 25 7.14 0.12 0.00 0.29 0.12 1.43 0.60 0.16 0.07 0.23
Solar Thermal 1 NREL 2008 40% 25 10.31 1.00 0.00 0.41 1.00 1.03 2.50 0.12 0.29 0.40
0.23Solar Thermal 2 NREL 2006 40% 25 4.50 0.38 0.00 0.18 0.38 0.45 0.95 0.05 0.11 0.16
Solar Thermal 3 EPRI 2001 40% 25 5.71 0.22 0.00 0.23 0.22 0.57 0.55 0.07 0.06 0.13
Wind 1 EWEA 2008 35% 25 10.10 0.40 0.00 0.40 0.40 1.15 1.14 0.13 0.13 0.26
0.17
Wind 2 REPP 2006 35% 25 3.80 0.14 0.00 0.15 0.14 0.43 0.41 0.05 0.05 0.10
Wind 3 McKinsey 2006 35% 25 10.96 0.18 0.00 0.44 0.18 1.25 0.50 0.14 0.06 0.20
Wind 4 CALPIRG 2002 35% 25 7.40 0.20 0.00 0.30 0.20 0.85 0.57 0.10 0.07 0.16
Wind 5 EPRI 2001 35% 25 2.57 0.29 0.00 0.10 0.29 0.29 0.83 0.03 0.09 0.13
Energy Efficiency
1
ACEEE 2008 100% 20 0.17
0.38
Energy Efficiency
2
J. Goldemberg
2009
100% 20 0.59
USVI AND GRENADA: GREEN JOBS CALCULATOR
Using local project data to determine short-term, long-term job
potential, translate to person-years/unit production, extrapolate trends

31. The Intercontinental on Bora Bora, one of the earliest SWAC systems ever deployed
SWAC AND ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN THE PACIFIC
System Design and Science communication for appropriate technologies
• SWAC at the Brando (Tetiaroa) and
the Interconntinental (Bora Bora)
• System deploys a 7,874 foot pipe to
a depth of more than 3,000 feet
• Saves 90% of electricity consumed
by conventional cooling systems
• Tetiaroa SWAC saves 660,000 liters
of fuel oil imports and 1,500 tons
of CO2 annually
• Modeled SWAC system integration
+ Low income housing study
Electric Jeepney (eJeepney) plying on the streets of metro Manila
• eJeepney conceived in 2005 by the Institute for
Climate and Sustainable Cities, launched in 2008
• Over 50 eJeepneys in Manila, also in Leyte to assist
with typhoon recovery
• Motor rated power: 7kW; 8-10 hour charge time;
40km/hr max speed; 84V 225 Ah battery on board
• Averages US$0.04 (Php1.86.00) per km while
diesel-fed jeepneys are US$0.18 per km
• National Geographic: The Great Energy Challenge