Houston’s retail market vacancy hits another record low, 6.0%, pushing rents higher.
Houston’s retail market posted 707,653 SF of positive net absorption in Q1 2015. Some of the tenants that moved into space during the quarter include HEB, Whole Foods, Walmart, TJ Maxx, and Sprouts.
The average citywide vacancy rate fell 10 basis points from 6.1% to 6.0% between quarters and fell by 50 basis points over the year from 6.5%. Currently, there is 1.6M SF in Houston’s retail construction pipeline, which includes the 374,000-SF Fairfield Town Center, the 252,000-SF River Oaks District, a 177,514-SF Walmart Supercenter on S Rice Avenue, and a 124,000-SF Kroger Marketplace in Katy located on FM 1463.
Due to the delivery of new product and dwindling supply, the average rental rate increased 1.8% from $14.87 per SF to $15.14 per SF between quarters and increased 2.2% from $14.82 in Q1 2014. Class A average retail rental rates can vary widely from $25.00 to $85.00 per SF, depending on location and property type. According to Colliers’ internal data, recently quoted rental rates for River Oaks District are as high as $200.00 per SF NNN, which to date is the highest quoted rental rate in Houston. River Oaks District has signed high-end luxury retailers such as Dolce & Gabbana, Roberto Cavalli, and most recently Warby Parker.
The Houston metropolitan area created 96,700 jobs between February 2014 and February 2015, an annual increase of 3.4% over the prior year’s job growth. Sectors creating most of the jobs contributing to the annual increase include mining and logging, arts, entertainment & recreation, and accommodation & food services. Houston’s unemployment rate fell from 5.4% one year ago to 4.3%.
1. www.colliers.com/houston
Q1 2015 | RETAIL MARKET
HOUSTON RETAIL
MARKET INDICATORS
Q4 2014 Q1 2015
CITYWIDE NET
ABSORPTION (SF) 228K 708K
CITYWIDE AVERAGE
VACANCY 6.1% 6.0%
CITYWIDE AVERAGE
RENTAL RATE $14.87 $15.14
DELIVERIES (SF) 678K 600K
UNDER
CONSTRUCTION (SF) 2.2M 1.6M
Houston’s retail market posted 707,653 SF of positive net absorption in
Q1 2015. Some of the tenants that moved into space during the quarter
include HEB, Whole Foods, Walmart, TJ Maxx, and Sprouts.
The average citywide vacancy rate fell 10 basis points from 6.1% to
6.0% between quarters and fell by 50 basis points over the year from
6.5%. Currently, there is 1.6M SF in Houston’s retail construction
pipeline, which includes the 374,000-SF Fairfield Town Center, the
252,000-SF River Oaks District, a 177,514-SF Walmart Supercenter on
S Rice Avenue, and a 124,000-SF Kroger Marketplace in Katy located
on FM 1463.
Due to the delivery of new product and dwindling supply, the average
rental rate increased 1.8% from $14.87 per SF to $15.14 per SF
between quarters and increased 2.2% from $14.82 in Q1 2014. Class A
average retail rental rates can vary widely from $25.00 to $85.00 per SF,
depending on location and property type. According to Colliers’ internal
data, recently quoted rental rates for River Oaks District are as high as
$200.00 per SF NNN, which to date is the highest quoted rental rate in
Houston. River Oaks District has signed high-end luxury retailers such
as Dolce & Gabbana, Roberto Cavalli, and most recently Warby Parker.
The Houston metropolitan area created 96,700 jobs between February
2014 and February 2015, an annual increase of 3.4% over the prior
year’s job growth. Sectors creating most of the jobs contributing to the
annual increase include mining and logging, arts, entertainment &
recreation, and accommodation & food services. Houston’s
unemployment rate fell from 5.4% one year ago to 4.3%.
ABSORPTION, NEW SUPPLY & VACANCY RATES
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
Absorption New Supply Vacancy
Houston’s retail market vacancy hits another
record low, 6.0%, pushing rents higher
HOUSTON RETAIL MARKET
RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT
Houston
UNEMPLOYMENT 2/14 2/15
HOUSTON 5.4% 4.3%
TEXAS 5.7% 4.3%
U.S. 7.0% 5.8%
JOB GROWTH
ANNUAL
CHANGE
# OF JOBS
ADDED
HOUSTON 3.4% 96.7K
TEXAS 3.2% 362.4K
U.S. 2.4% 3.3M
JOB GROWTH & UNEMPLOYMENT
(Not Seasonally Adjusted)
2. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q1 2015 | HOUSTON RETAIL MARKET
SALES ACTIVITY
Houston’s first quarter retail
investment sales activity included
82 sales transactions. The
average price per SF was $165
and the average cap rate was
8.0%.
Some of the more significant
transactions that closed during
the quarter are highlighted on the
left.
LEASING ACTIVITY
Houston first quarter retail
leasing activity, which includes
renewals, reached 1.1M SF.
Overall, transactions under 5,000
SF comprised the largest group
of retail leases, with the market
recording sixteen leases over
10,000 SF and only four over
20,000 SF in the first quarter.
A partial list of the leases signed
during the first quarter are listed
in the table below.
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 2
Green Tree Shopping Center
231-515 S Fry Rd, Katy, TX
Far Katy South Submarket
RBA: 147,658 SF
Built: 1996/2004
Buyer: Inland REIT
Seller: Harris Family Trust
Date: March 2015
Price: $26.2M or $178/SF
Cap: 7.2%
Comments: Major tenants include TJ Maxx,
PetSmart, Office Depot, Target, and Ulta.
RETAIL SALE TRANSACTIONS
Copperfield Village
7031-7099 N Hwy 6, Houston, TX
Bridgelands Submarket
RBA: 165,293 SF
Built: 1984
Buyer: Kimco Realty Corporation
Seller: Greenstreet Real Estate Partners, LP
Date: February 2015
Price: $39.5M or $239/SF
Cap: 6.1%
Comments: Major tenants include Sprouts,
Ross Dress for Less, Goody Goody Liquor,
Dollar Tree, and Five Below.
1
Renewal
2
Colliers International Transaction
Building Name/Address Submarket SF Tenant
Lease
Date
Ashford Village Center Far West 14,500 Salon Village Jan-15
Chelsea Square II Cypresswood 13,600 Fast Eddies1
Feb-15
6130 S Fry Rd Far Katy South 13,450 Knowledge Beginnings1
Mar-15
Stella Link Shopping Center Inner Loop University 13,243 CrossFit Central Houston Jan-15
Katy Ranch Crossing Far Katy South 12,500 Tuesday Morning Jan-15
Fairfield Plaza Fairfield 10,855 DaVita Dialysis Jan-15
The Plaza at Richmond Galleria 10,750 Boot Barn Mar-15
Royal Oaks Village II Westchase 10,487 Image Salon Jan-15
Deerbrook Plaza Spring Creek 10,250 Fresenius Medical Care Kingwood
2
Feb-15
Wood Ridge Plaza Montgomery County 10,080 Home Consignment Center
2
Jan-15
Westmont Shopping Center Inner Loop River Oaks 9,000 Physicians ER Jan-15
Rose-Rich Shopping Center Far Southwest 8,841 CVS Pharmacy Feb-15
Woodforest Shopping Center Pasadena/Galena Park 8,059 CM Clothes Max Feb-15
The Courtyard at Post Oak Uptown 7,606 Parvizian Rugs Jan-15
Atascocita Shopping Center Lake Houston 7,202 99 Cents Only Mar-15
Westmont Shopping Center Inner Loop River Oaks 5,800 Mattress Firm Jan-15
Q1 2015 Retail Leases
3. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q1 2015 | HOUSTON RETAIL MARKET
RENTAL RATES
According to our data source
CoStar Property, the citywide
overall average quoted rental
rate for all property types
increased from $14.87 to $15.14
per SF between quarters and
increased from $14.82 in Q1
2014.
Houston class A retail rental
rates vary widely from $20.00 to
$85.00 per SF depending on
location and center type. Recent
quoted rates for neighborhood
centers, typically anchored by a
grocer, range from $30.00 -
$55.00 per SF, power centers
range from $25.00 - $45.00 per
SF and theme/entertainment
centers range from $25.00 -
$40.00 per SF. Lifestyle centers
in highly desirable locations
such as CityCentre, Hughes
Landing, and Vintage Park range
from $45.00 - $85.00 per SF,
with some centers that are not
centrally located starting at
$35.00 per SF. Strip centers
range from $30.00 - $50.00 per
SF, and outlet center rental rates
range from $25.00 - $40.00 per
SF.
VACANCY & AVAILABILITY
The average citywide vacancy
rate decreased from 6.1% to
6.0% and decreased by 50 basis
points from 6.5% in Q1 2014.
By product type on an annual
basis, theme/entertainment
centers posted the largest
decrease in vacancy, 950 basis
points, from 14.0% in the Q1
2014 to 4.5% in Q1 2015. Strip
centers followed decreasing 110
basis points from 9.8% to 8.7%
over the same time period.
Houston’s retail construction
pipeline contains 1.6M SF and
first quarter deliveries totaled
600,000 SF.
ABSORPTION & DEMAND
Houston’s retail market posted
707,653 SF of positive net
absorption in the first quarter.
Some of the tenants that moved
into space during the quarter are
listed in the following on the
right.
HOUSTON RETAIL MARKET STATISTICAL SUMMARY
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 3
Q1 2015 ABSORPTION
Tenant/
Submarket
SF
Occupied
HEB
Near West 92,327
Academy Sports &
Outdoors
North/Spring Creek 71.680
LA Fitness
Inner Loop/River Oaks 42,500
Walmart
Far Katy South 41,839
Whole Foods
Montgomery County 40,000
TJ Maxx
Southeast Outlier 30,000
Gold’s Gym
Montgomery County 29,710
Sprouts
Inner Loop/River Oaks 27,529
99 Cents Only
Inner Loop/East End 27,115
Dd’s Discounts
Jersey Village 25,220
Cost World Plus
Market
Inner Loop/River Oaks 18,000
Property Type
Rentable
Area
Direct
Vacant SF
Direct
Vacancy
Rate
Sublet
Vacancy
SF
Sublet
Vacancy
Rate
Total
Vacancy
SF
Total
Vacancy
Rate
Q1 2015 Net
Absorption
Class A
Rental Rates
(in-line)*
Strip Centers (unanchored) 34,188,039 2,926,069 8.6% 35,400 0.1% 2,961,469 8.7% 69,077 $30.00-$50.00
Neighborhood Centers (one
anchor)
69,116,397 6,745,755 9.8% 50,192 0.1% 6,795,947 9.8% 179,316 $25.00-$45.00
Community Centers (two
anchors)
44,582,846 2,475,031 5.6% 103,208 0.2% 2,578,239 5.8% 149,170 $20.00-$40.00
Power Centers (three or >
anchors)
25,472,234 871,887 3.4% 30,000 0.1% 901,887 3.5% (9,164) $20.00-$40.00
Lifestyle Centers 4,802,813 275,156 5.7% 33,789 0.7% 308,945 6.4% 10,192 $40.00-$85.00
Outlet Centers 1,899,333 274,860 14.5% - 0.0% 274,860 14.5% 0 $20.00-$40.00
Theme/Entertainment 533,474 24,086 4.5% - 0.0% 24,086 4.5% (210) $25.00-$35.00
Single-Tenant 70,392,664 1,375,948 2.0% 53,646 0.1% 1,429,594 2.0% 309,272 N/A
Malls 23,002,250 1,199,248 5.2% 24,750 0.1% 1,223,998 5.3% 0 N/A
Greater Houston 273,990,050 16,168,040 5.9% 330,985 0.1% 16,499,025 6.0% 707,653
4. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q1 2015 | HOUSTON RETAIL MARKET
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COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
1233 W. Loop South
Suite 900
Houston, Texas 77027
Main +1 713 222 2111
LISA R. BRIDGES
Director of Market Research | Houston
Direct +1 713 830 2125
Fax +1 713 830 2118
lisa.bridges@colliers.com
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This is evident throughout our platform—from Colliers University, our proprietary education and professional development platform, to our
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We connect through a shared set of values that shape a collaborative environment throughout our organization that is unsurpassed in the
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Colliers International offers a comprehensive portfolio of real estate services to occupiers, owners and investors on a local, regional,
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*Information herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, however its accuracy cannot be guaranteed.
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