1. www.boyarmiller.com
The Houston Commercial
Real Estate Markets:
What’s Ahead for 2013
Breakfast Forum
December 5, 2012

2. www.boyarmiller.com
Land Development,
Homebuildng &
Multi-Family Markets
Will Holder
Trendmaker Homes

3. A National Real Estate Anomaly
A Free Market Case Study

4. Out of control, sprawl crazed
megalopolis?
Human intuitive, naturally
evolving Super City?
OR

6. -35%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
2Q90 2Q92 2Q94 2Q96 2Q98 2Q00 2Q02 2Q04 2Q06 2Q08 2Q10 2Q12
Las Vegas-Paradise, NV Fresno, CA
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Cape Coral-Ft Myers, FL
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX
Source: FHFA

7. Houston MSA Residential Building Permits
Number of Dwelling Units -- Thousands
81,500 Net New Jobs vs. 27,285 New Dwelling Units – 2.65 Jobs Per Unit

8. Houston Existing Home Prices
Median Price Prior 12 Month Average
Houston Association of REALTORS®

9. What Will the Next Five, Ten
Years Look Like for Houston
Real Estate?

11. Houston MSA Population Forecasts
Scenario 2000-2007 Migration
Texas State Data Center
Millions

12. Location, Location, Location?
No!
Location, Jobs, Location, Jobs

13. Houston MSA Job Numbers
Recession
Millions of Jobs
Seasonally-Adjusted
More
Jobs
Than
Ever
In
History

16. MSA Rank- Starts Last 12 Months

21. Conclusion:
• Houston is a Stable Steady Market
• Economy & Population is Going to Grow
• Supply & Demand is Moving Toward
a Sellers Market
• Prices Almost Have to Increase

22. www.boyarmiller.com
Retail Market
Jay K. Sears
NewQuest Properties

23. Annual Job Growth

24. U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index
75
100
125
75
100
125
Rolling 12-mo
average
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index
50
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: University of Michigan Survey of Consumers

25. Retail Trade Sales
Source: U.S. Census

26. Retail Trade Sales
Source: State of Texas Comptroller
2008 Trend 2009 Trend 2010 Trend 2011 Trend Projected 2012 Trend
U.S. 100.00% 92.64% 97.84% 105.57% 114.01%
Texas 100.00% 88.06% 90.93% 98.89% 107.79%
Houston MSA 100.00% 86.63% 89.05% 99.57% 108.54%
Harris County 100.00% 85.54% 87.18% 98.69% 108.56%
Montgomery County 100.00% 91.94% 99.33% 105.29% 111.61%
Fort Bend County 100.00% 84.81% 91.94% 95.67% 110.03%
75.00%
80.00%
85.00%
90.00%
95.00%
100.00%
105.00%
110.00%
115.00%
120.00%
Retail Trade Sales By National, State, MSA, and County
2008 2009 2010 20122011

27. 2008 Trend 2009 Trend 2010 Trend 2011 Trend Projected 2012 Trend
Katy 100.00% 92.59% 105.85% 121.72% 131.46%
Pearland-Friendswood-League City 100.00% 98.96% 102.43% 115.74% 125.00%
Conroe 100.00% 87.80% 94.60% 108.64% 117.34%
Baytown 100.00% 87.93% 90.13% 101.49% 115.70%
Sugarland-Rosenberg-Missouri City 100.00% 102.29% 97.87% 105.98% 115.52%
Pasadena-Deer Park-La Porte 100.00% 104.12% 105.74% 117.79% 129.57%
Houston 100.00% 85.00% 87.02% 99.06% 107.97%
Humble 100.00% 87.95% 88.15% 95.22% 103.79%
80.00%
90.00%
100.00%
110.00%
120.00%
130.00%
Retail Trade Sales By City
Retail Trade Sales
Source: State of Texas Comptroller
2008 2009 2010 20122011

28. Holiday Sales
 “35 million consumers visited
stores and Web sites on
Thursday, up from 29 million
last year.”
 “Average consumer
spent $423 – roughly $25
more than they did last year.”
 “Total spending increased
nearly 13% to an estimated
$59.1 billion, according to the
NRF.”
 “89 million consumers, up
from 86 million in 2011
shopped on Black Friday.”
 “Holiday sales are expected to
increase 4.1% from 2011,
said NRF.”
Thanksgiving Weekend Sale
Source: www.washingtonpost.com “Thanksgiving weekend
sales better than last year”
 “Online shopping on Black
Friday rose 26% to exceed
$1 billion for the first time.”
 “Online sales advanced 16%
in the first 23 days of
November to $13.7 billion,
with sales on Thanksgiving
Day increasing 32% to $633
million.”
 “Total spending increased
nearly 13% to an estimated
$59.1 billion, according to the
NRF.”
Online Shopping
 “Traffic to retail sites on Black
Friday rose to 24% from
14.3%, and the mobile share
of sales hit 16%, up from
9.8% a year ago.”
 “Nielsen in September
reported 55.5% of U.S.
mobile subscribers
had smartphones as of July,
up from 41% a year earlier.”
 “The data all points to a larger
addressable market for
mobile sales and promotions
during the holiday season.”
Mobile Shopping
Source: www.bloomberg.com “Retailers Keep Deals Flowing
on 13% Holiday-Sales Jump”
Source: www.mediapost.com “Mobile Becomes Major
Shopping Player”

29. Best Buy Annual Sales
Source: Business Insider
Same Store
Sales at
Source: www.investors.Best Buy.com

30. Kroger 3rd Quarter Highlights
 Kroger's adjusted earnings per diluted share was a record
$0.46 for the quarter.
 Identical supermarket sales growth, without fuel, was 3.2%
in the third quarter.
 Achieved 36(th) consecutive quarter of positive identical
supermarket sales
Reports Record Third Quarter Earnings Per Share
Source: PRNewswire

31. Population Growth
5,946,800
6,127,645
6,280,138
6,435,268
6,593,498
6,754,896
5,400,000
5,600,000
5,800,000
6,000,000
6,200,000
6,400,000
6,600,000
6,800,000
7,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Houston MSA Population Growth
Source: State of Texas
Years
Population

33. -5,000
5,000
15,000
25,000
35,000
45,000
55,000
65,000
75,000
85,000
95,000
105,000
115,000
School Enrollment
2008-2009
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
School Enrollment Growth
Source: Texas Education Agency
Districts
Students
Enrollment Increases
District 2008-2012
Houston ISD 1.4%
Katy ISD 9.8%
Fort Bend ISD 1.1%
Spring ISD 9.9%
Cypress-Fairbanks ISD 6.9%
Humble ISD 7.9%
Klein ISD 5.2%
Conroe ISD 8.4%
Aldine ISD 3.9%
Clear Lake ISD 5.0%
Alvin ISD 12.6%
198,500
199,000
199,500
200,000
200,500
201,000
201,500
202,000
202,500
203,000
203,500
204,000
Houston ISD

34. Houston’s Retail Market

35.  in Texas City
 in the Heights
 at Hwy 249 & Smiling Wood
 in Sienna Plantation
 in Fairfield Market
 & in Cinco Ranch
New Shopping Centers in 2012

36. Grocery Anchored Developments Openings 2012
25.0% market share
24.8% market share
22.2 % market share
Houston – area
Market Leaders
Source: The Shelby Report of the Southwest; October
2012
2012
Store
Openings

37. Planned Grocery Anchored Developments 2013 & Future
25.0% market share
24.8% market share
22.2 % market share
Houston – area
Market Leaders
Source: The Shelby Report of the Southwest; October
2012
2013 & Beyond
Store Openings

38. New Shopping Centers Projects Planned
Project / Anchor Developer Location Projected Opening
Grand Lakes Marketplace
Fry & Grand Pkwy Jan. 2013
Village at Northpark
Northpark & US 59 2nd Qtr 2013
Spring Marketplace
Rayford & Kuykendahl 1st Qtr 2014
Spring Town Center
Kuykendahl & FM 2920 Summer 2013
Blvd. Place
Post Oak & San Felipe Spring 2014
Vintage Marketplace
Louetta & Cutten Rd Summer 2014
Fountainview & San Felipe 2014
Development
Loop 306 & Hwy 105 2013

39. FOR LEASING: CALL 281-477-4300
Spring Town Center Brazos Town Center Sam Houston Town Center
NEC & SEC of FM 2920 & Kuykendahl
Houston, Texas
Project Size:
Anchors: 354,559 SF
Retail: 153,845 SF
Pad Sites: 27 Total; 7 Available
Tenants:
NWC & SWC of US 59 & FM 762
Rosenberg, Texas
Project Size:
550.00 acres (1.8 million SF of retail)
Tenants:
NWC of I-45 & FM 1097
Willis, Texas
Project Size:
Kroger Market Place: 123,000 SF
Retail: 27,407 SF
Pad Sites: 6 Available
Tenants:
OPENING MAY 2013
12 SCREEN
NOW OPEN
COMING SOON

40. New to Houston’s Market
• California base specialty
Grocery
• 3 new stores
• Limited assortment
grocery with over 1,000
stores nationwide
• 9 new stores in Houston
out of 30 planned
• Phoenix based healthy
foods/ organic grocery
store
• 3 new stores
• North Carolina based
gourmet grocery store
• 4 new stores taking over
Rice Epicurean locations
• 2 sites under contract
Hwy 59 & University
Grand Pkwy & I-10
• Same company as Bed
Bath & Beyond
• 1st store in Webster, TX
• Discount soft goods
• Family-owned, family-
oriented company
• New pet store concept
• Looking for 7,000 –
9,000 sq. ft.
• 5,000 sq. ft. Petco store
• Grocery anchored &
urban markets
• No live animals
• Organic foods
• 1st store Baybrook
Mall 20,500 sq. ft.
• 2nd store Willowbrook
Mall 25,000 sq. ft.
• California-based
clothing company
• 6,000 sq. ft. at First
Colony Mall
• New store coming soon
in Texas City
• New concept 30,000 sq.
ft.
• New size 40,000 sq. ft. • 1st location located in
downtown Houston

41. Rent Growth Rate & Forecast

42. Construction / Absorption and Vacancy

43. Houston Sales Comps 2012

44. www.boyarmiller.com
Office Market
Robert S. Parsley
Colliers International

45. Houston’s Most Active Office Submarkets
RobustEconomy

46. Central Business District
OpportunityorConcern

47. GalleriaCompanyExpansions

48. West HoustonEnergy&Construction

49. Woodlands/Greenspoint
ATaleofTwoCities

50. What to expect in 2013
• Houston’s economy is a magnet for
business!
• Even with concerns over the U.S.
economy of the “Fiscal Cliff”, expect
that office leasing activity will
continue to be robust!
• Continued growth in the suburban
markets - Woodlands and Energy
Corridor.
• Greenspoint will be active, but due to
exodus of companies relocating to
other submarkets.
• 1M SF available in Allen Center (CBD)
will attract a large tenant or tenants -
it is an Opportunity!
• Thankful to be in Houston!
Continued Growth

51. www.boyarmiller.com
Industrial Market
Welcome W. Wilson, Jr.
GSL Welcome Group

52. December 5, 2012
2013 INDUSTRIAL
FORECAST
WelcomeWilson,Jr.

56. Houston…A force to be reckoned with

57. 2011
 507.9 million SF
 1.977 million SF
under construction
2012
 843 million SF
 2.156 million SF
under construction
HOUSTON INDUSTRIAL
MARKET TOTALS

58. VACANCY RATES BY BUILDING TYPE
5.3% HOUSTON AVERAGE

59. Vacancy Rates
U.S. - VS - HOUSTON
Rental Rates

60. INVESTMENT SALES

61. Ameriport 2 - Update

62. DiMare Fresh, Inc. - Update

63. JOB GROWTH

64. Fuels
ENERGY
The
Economy

65. ExxonMobil - Update

66. Trade and the Panama Canal

67. HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL

68. Exxon/Qatar Proposal
Exxon Mobil Corp. and Qatar Petroleum
International are teaming up on a proposal
to export liquid natural gas from Golden Pass
terminal near the Houston ship channel.

69. Driving
Energy
&
Producing
Jobs
Eagle Ford Shale

70. GAME ON!